Back Seat Drivers

Super Bowl Preview: The Super Bowl Sequel

2012-01-31T21:14:00.005-05:00

Super Bowl week is a joyous time of the year for every American. It’s a time to eat heavily, drink heavily, and refuse to go to the bathroom during the commercials. It’s also a time of the year, where recently, I’ve enjoyed comparing head coaches to other fictional characters. It started in 2006, with Sgt. Slaughter (Cowher) vs. Colonel Mustard (Mike Holmgren) and continued in 2007 with McDowell’s, the dad from Coming to America (Lovey Smith). In 2008, I pointed out that Bill Belichick is a Sith Lord. In 2009, I just said that Nobody beat the Whiz (Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt) except on Super Bowl Sunday. And in 2010, I realized that Colts- Saints was Good Guy vs. Good guy (at least f or me) and was like Hulk Hogan vs. Ultimate Warrior. In 2011, I pointed out the pure evil of James Harrison and how he is Mr. Glass from the Movie Unbreakable, who ***SPOILER ALERT***, harmed other people but had no idea he was an evil villain.

This year? I can't figure out if this "Sequel" is going to be more like Blues Brothers 2000 (where we want to pretend it never happend?) or like Terminator 2: Judgment Day (completely obliterating its quality predecessor).

Fact 1: The 2007 Super Bowl had an unprecedented event - a 16-0 team. The 2011 Super Bowl has a 9-7 Giants team.
The 2007 Super Bowl was incredibly gripping because of the historic nature of the event. The 1972 Dolphins famously went 17-0, by winning 3 playoff games after just a 14-0 season. The 16-0 and 19-0 seasons seemed mythological and almost impossible. Provided great theater... whereas this year's Pats and Giants have nothing historic on the table. Not even Belichick has the power to retroactively declare this season as an undefeated season and say "my undefeated season is inevitable."
Advantage: Blues Brothers 2000

Fact 2: The Pats brought in Chad Ochocinco to play WR... and for comedic relief!
This still is exciting. Just put a mic on him during the game. Please. And don't censor him. Let him take pictures of girls in the stands, say obnoxious things, second-guess the coaches, try to predict plays, put whopee cushions under the O-linemen before they sit down. Let him do all that stuff! You have to think outside the box if you want the sequel to trump the original... and we all know the Pats didn't get Ochocinco for his on-field performance at this point. This is the kind of out-of-the-box thinking that leads to a shape-shifting, gelataneous terminator.
Advantage: Terminator 2: Judgment Day

Fact 3: Randy Moss was in the last Super Bowl for the Patriots with a 1500 yard, 23 TD season... but not this one.
Is this like the Blues Brothers returning without John Belushi? Granted, in terms of getting the band back together, Kevin Faulk is still around. I don't think that's going to push the needle very far though.
Advantage: Blues Brothers 2000

Fact 4: The Pats have added Rob Gronkowski who had a 1300 yard, 17 TD season.
Does this mean he's John Connor from T2? Or is it Victor Cruz from the Giants (1500 yards, 9 TDs)? Both players had very special seasons and were two of the most explosive seasons in real football and in fantasy football. Of course, no one has any idea how healthy Gronkowski is. When healthy, he is absolutely impossible to cover may I just say.
Advantage: Terminator 2: Judgment Day

Fact 5: The Giants have someone on their roster named Bear Pascoe. Yes, they have a Bear as a backup TE!
Talk about trying to do anything they can to entice us to watch the sequel? Adding Bears that play football is gimmicky. This is almost like having Blues Traveler guest star during the Blues Brother 2000 movie thinking it would really entice people to see the movie.
Advantage: Blues Brothers 2000

Thus, as I have shown from these facts, it appears more likely than not that this Super Bowl will not be as exciting as the original and will probably resemble Blues Brothers 2000 more than it resembles Terminator 2: Judgment Day. I sure hope I'm wrong, because nothing puts me in a worse mood than watching a Super Bowl stinker (I'm talking to you Ravens-Giants from the year 2000!)

Game Analysis
This year, as we all know, the Giants surprisingly ended the Patriots undefeated season in the 2007-2008 NFL season. Four years later, we somehow ended up with the same two teams meeting each other, though the teams have changed in some unique ways (Giants offense much better/consistent, Patriots defense much worse) despite the stability at QB and coach.

However, the strangest thing about this rematch... is that it is exactly 4 years ago, which in the NFL, happens to mean that each time the teams faced each other during the regular season. In that 2007 season, the Giants gave the Patriots everything they could handle to try to prevent the Patriots from getting to 16-0... but the Pats prevailed 38-35 (then lost in the Super Bowl). In this 2011 season, the Patriots lost to the Giants in week 9, 24-20, behind New England turning it over 4 times (but forcing 2 TOs), to go -2 on the day.

I think this game reinforces the one thing that has been true all season with this high-scoring Pats team... (and also applied to the high-scoring Packers and Saints teams)... they have to give up some turnovers for the other team to win. The Patriots lost to the Bills in a game where they also turned it over 4 times. In the Pats only other loss this year, to the Steelers, the Pats did finish +1, but the Steelers somehow held New England to 170 passing yards, which of course was a season-low.

The critical fact for me is that the Giants almost single-handedly let 49ers TE Vernon Davis beat them in the NFC Championship game. People don't talk about TE Aaron Hernandez as much as Gronkowski, but he is nearly just as skilled and will create just as many problems. Outside of the Giants finishing +2 or +3 in the turnover department, I only see an inevitable scoreline...

Pick: Patriots 38, Giants 21

Hope it is more exciting than Blues Brothers 2000!

NBA Preview 2011-2012: The NBA, It's Back!

2011-12-26T12:00:00.000-05:00

I can't resist doing another NBA Preview. The 7 days of free agency have been insane, with David Stern completely overstepping his bounds, vetoing a trade, and then eventually letting Chris Paul go to the Clippers. More importantly we have like 66 games in 123 days approximately, and every team has about 3 back-to-back-to-backs. Let's take a look at what we have:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division
4-NY- (major moves: added C Tyson Chandler, PG Mike Bibby; Lost PG C. Billups)- The Knicks have a huge whole at PG. Bibby is too old to be a successful PG. But yes, they have a nucleus of Stoudemire, Carmelo, and Chandler. Should be good enough for a low seed in the playoffs. The backcourt is ridiculously weak though now, but if Baron Davis comes back healthy that will be huge for them.
6-Boston- (major moves: added two Purdue rookies (j. Johnson, E. moore), PF B. Bass; Lost: D. West, PF big baby Davis, Jeff Green (heart surgery - hope he has a good recovery))- Well, the bench got shorter than last year. Jeff Green being out for the season does not help, as there's no way Pierce, KG, and Ray Allen are going to be able to make it through this sprint of 66 games in 122 days. Should be a middling seed, and a tough out in the early rounds... but this could be the last hurrah for this bunch.
7-Philly- (major moves: lost Kapono, 3-point specialist) - I think this young team (outside of Elton Brand), with two young PGs (Jrue Holiday and Lou Williams), along with Evan Turner and T. Young is the kind of team that may be athletic enough and deep enough to survive the sprint through the season.
NJ- (major moves: amnesty of Outlaw, who they just signed last year) - The team is thin now. Traded most of the assets to get PG Deron Wiliams, may trade C Brook Lopez still to get Dwight Howard, though they got Mehmet Okur, who's coming off a major injury. I can't expect much from them this season.
Toronto- (major moves: added a bunch of spare parts; rookie #5 pick Jonas V. not here yet) - This is not going to be a good team. Not in the least. I said it last year, and it still holds true this year!

Central Division
1-Chicago- (major moves: added Rip Hamilton; ) - This is still a great team. MVP Derrick Rose trained hard all summer again with the same guy as last year, alongside his buddies R. Westbrook, K. Love, and A. Horford. Sky's the limit again for these guys. The best thing about them, is that they have Taj Gibson, and Omer Asik, to help soak up minutes in this sprint of an NBA season, who are more than capable of succeeding.
3-Indiana- (major moves: added PF D. West, Lost: Dunleavy, PF McRoberts, PG TJ Ford and waived Posey) - This is a great team, and they got a nice upgrade in PF David West, assuming he's recovered from his knee injury. With the East being so incredibly weak (relatively) after Chicago/Miami, it's not out of the realm of possiblity for the Pacers, yes the Pacers, to grab the 3rd seed.
Milwaukee- (major moves: added Mike Dunleavy, Stephen Jackson (yes, the guy who throws haymakers!), ; Lost Corey Maggette) - I think their crazy coach, Scott Skiles has once again lost his team. This happens in every stint (Phoenix, Chicago). First, he overachieves, then they do around .500, then the bottom falls out and he gets fired. This year's team, as far as I can tell, has PF-gooden/ilyasova; C-Bogut, SF S. jackson, SG Dunleavy, and PG B. Jennings
Cleveland- (major moves: added rookie PG Kyrie Irving, rookie PF T. Thompson, SF O. Casspri; Lost PF Hickson, PG Baron Davis) - I think the Cavs will be battling for the last playoff spot all season long (assuming they don't deal out Jamison and Mo). This team is much better than the forecast everyone else is saying, i.e. this is not the worst team in the East. Not by a long shot. They should be just below .500 and hit around 40 wins because a) they are going to be running all night long in their new system under Byron Scott and b) they still have some solid players in Jamison, Varejao, Mo, JJ Hickson and super fast PG Ramon Sessions.
Detroit- (major moves: added rookie PG B. Knight, ; Lost Rip Hamilton) - It's just an older team (Ben Wallace, Tayshaun Prince) with some players who don't play defense (Villaneuva, Ben Gordon) and then a few interesting younger players (Jerebko, B. Knight, A. Daye). This is not actually a winning formula. (note, I used the same recap as last year!)

Southeast Division
2-Miami- (major moves: added rookie PG N. Cole, SF S. Battier; the corpse of Eddy Curry; Lost Mike Bibby, Z, and Magloire) - Yes, they have Bosh, Wade, and LeBron. Mike Miller is the best player after that. At Center, they are in trouble. It's their only weakness... but it could really only be exploited by teams that have offensive centers (i.e. Orlando and the Lakers).
5-Atlanta- (major moves: added T. McGrady, V. Radmonovic; Lost J. Crawford)- The Hawks have seen their best days already I think... though I do think they have more athleticism than other teams, so surviving the regular season is more likely.
8-Orlando- (major moves: added Big Baby Davis, Lost PF Bass; Arenas) - It's hard to handicap them since traindg Howard is still possible... I still think they eke out a playoff appearance, though I have no idea who will be on the team by that point.
Washington- (major moves: added rookie J. Vesley (not sure if he's in the states though); PG S. Mack; LOST Josh Howard) - This team smartly decided not to amnesty Rashard Lewis, because it would have forced them to spend additional money to get back to the minimum. Instead, they can suck it up this year, get a good draft pick, then move forward with getting some free agents in next year's better class to surround John Wall with some talent (and hopefully not as crazy as A. Blatche).
Charlotte- (major moves: added PG Kemba Walker; SG R. Williams; SF C. Maggette; LOST SF S. Jackson) - May be one of the worst teams... they just have Kemba Walker and Maggette, and Maggette breeds losing.

Western Conference

Mountainous Division
1-Ok City- (no major moves) - All-World Durant plus super awesome PG Westbrook plus C Perkins and defensive force Ibaka plus Harden means they are the prohibitive favorites out West.
6-Denver- (major moves: added rookie PF K. Faried (he's got dreadlocks and was huge in that NCAA upset in the 1st round over Louisville); PG A. Miller; SG R. Fernandez, LOST (JR Smith, Wilson Chandler,); PG R. Felton ) - Interestingly, they were the top team after the Carmelo trade in offensive AND defensive efficiency. Granted, that team had Felton, JR Smith, and Chandler (all gone). So... I know they won't be the best team, but they should be good enough to mak the playoffs still. Ty Lawson is now the starting PG, they still have Nene, Afflalo, and Gallinari.
8-Portland- (added PG R. Felton, SG J. Crawford; lost PG A. Miller, B. Roy (retired), Oden (knee? - should I even mention this, or do we assume it?)) - This is a solid team, amazingly, despite all of the losses. They have PF Aldridge, SF G. Wallace, C Camby/ K. Thomas, SG W. Matthews, and PG Felton; plus Batum, and J. Crawford off the bench.
Utah- (added SF J. Howard, rookie SG A. Burks; LOST SG R. Price) - this is a retooling time... but if D. Favors pans out, they should be ecstatic about he D. Williams trade last year.
Minnesota- (major moves: added rookie stud SF D. Williams; PG R. Rubio; PG JJ Barea, C B. Miller ) - #2 overall pick Derrick Williams is coming off the bench. Rubio is finally here, so it will at least be interesting for these guys.

Texas Division
2-Memphis- (major moves: lost SF Battier (it's not that big a deal because he's old)) - I suppose this team has more athleticism and more weapons than Dallas, so they edge them out for a division title.
3-Dallas- (major moves: added PF L. Odom, SG V. Carter, SG D. West; LOST C T. Chandler, PG JJ Barea, ) - I think they will fall short of the division title, but will still be a tough out in the playoffs.
7-Houston- (major moves: added rookie PF Marcus Morris; PG J. Flynn; LOST PF/C C. Hayes, Yao; C B. Miller) - I still think Scola, Kevin Martin, and the defensive presence of Samuel Dalmbert should be good enough to make the playoffs!
San Antonio- (major moves: added rookie SF K. Leonard; PF TJ Ford; LOST PG G. Hill ) - Last year, I thought the spurs were done and took them out of making the playoffs. Instead, they got a #1 seed... then promptly got stomped in the 1st round. This year, I just think their stars will be injured and they won't have enough frontcourt depth to make it through the season.
New Orleans- (major moves: added C Kaman, SG E. Gordon; LOST PG C. Paul, PF D. West) - I think this division is brutal. The Eric Gordon, Kaman, Emeka Okafor team shouldn't be that bad... but they won't be that great either.
Pacific Division
4-Lakers- (major moves: SG J. Kapono, PF McRoberts; LOST PF Odom, SG S. Brown) - This is the end of the Lakers, in its current form. I'm just not sure how far they can go with their old players in this abbreviated season.
5-Clippers- (major moves: added PG C. Paul, PG Billups; SF C. Butler; LOST C Kaman; SG E. Gordon) - The Clippers are exciting, yes. However, it's all contingent on Chris Paul's knee holding up.
Phoenix- (major moves: added SG S. Brown, SG R. Price; LOST SG V. Carter; PG A. Brooks (in china)) - I'm guessing this is the year the Suns trade Nash to a contender? Not sure what will happen, but outside of Gortat dominating suddenly, I don't think they can make the playoffs.
Sacramento- (major moves: added rookie PG Jimmer (i hate him); PF/C C. Hayes; PF JJ Hickson; SG J. Salmons; LOST SF Casspri; PG. Udirh; C Dalembert) - If Tyreke Evans is healthy and re-finds his rookie year, this team could be dangerous. No idea if they will play defense (Tyreke, Jimmer, JJ Hickson, Salmons, Thornton), which will be a problem.
Golden State- (major moves: added rookie Klay Thompson; C Kwame Brown; LOST Radmonovic; Al Thornton; SG R. Williams) - This team is very hard to evaluate. They also don't play defense. They also wasted their amnesty on a $4 million player , in hopes of getting a big center. Instead, they chose backup Kwame Brown over Dalembert. Why is the entire league black-balling Dalembert? I don't get it.

Playoffs
1st Round
1-Chicago over 8-Orlando
4-NY over 5- ATL (Baron davis should be good by then)
3-Indiana over 6-Boston
2-Miami over 7-Philly
1-Ok City ove 8-Portland
5-Clippers over 4-Lakers (oh boy)
3-Dallas over 6-Denver
2-Memphis over 7-Houston

2nd Round
1-Chicago over 4-NY
2-Miami over 3-Indiana
1-Ok City over 5-Clippers
2-Memphis over 3-Dallas
Conf Finals
2-Miami over 1-Chicago- The biggest question I want to know is this: why can't the Bulls beat the Heat? Everyone remembers the fact that the Heat steamrolled the Bulls last year 4-1, but during the season, the Bulls went 3-0 against the Heat. Unraveling this matchup is the key to determining this year's NBA champion I believe. The Heat are the favorite, but the Bulls in my opinion, might be the only team capable of beating them. Luol Deng is one of the few players who can, for whatever it's worth, hang around with Lebron. Derrick Rose gives the Heat problems. Plus, the Bulls have lots of size which is a problem for the soft Bosh, Anthony/Haslem frontline. The 1st game took place on 1/15/11, but Chris Bosh got hurt during the game in the 3rd quarter and Lebron didnt play, and the Bulls won by 3, while outrebounding Miami 42-30. The 2nd game was another close one - a 4 point Bulls win. The Bulls outrebounded Miami 53-39. The Heat played a short 8-man rotation, but were missing Udonis Haslem. The Bulls Omer Asik caused many problems, getting 11 rebounds, going +17, in 21 minutes of play. The Bulls won the 3rd game, played 3/6/11 by only 1 point. In this game, the Bulls only outrebounded the Heat 36-30. Udonis Haslem was still not in this game either.
In game 1 of the playoffs, the Bulls won by 21, behind a 45-33 rebounding edge, Deng, Noah, and Taj Gibson all had huge games. In game 2, the Heat won by 10, won the rebounding advantage, played great defense, and shot well. It was pretty perfect. In game 3, the Heat won by 11, In game 4, the Heat won a nailbiter in OT. In game 5, the Heat won by 3. I also computed the following stats... the Bulls somehow had Chris Bosh chipping in at 60% FG% during the playoff series (well above his 47% for the playoffs last year). However, they held Lebron and Wade slightly below their playoff averages: Lebron was down from 46.6, to 44.6, but averages more assists (6.6 to 5.9); Wade was really down - from 48.5 to 40.5 and averaged even less assists than normal (4.4 to 3.7).
However, none of this information really matters. What does matter? The Heat and the Bulls have each shed one of their top 8 (Bibby, Bogans). The scary thing is, I wante to ask the question of whether Bibby's performance in the Heat relative to the rest of the team. If you throw out his garbage time in game 1's blowout, the Heat were exceptionally worse with Bibby in the lineup (i.e. Bibby always had a worse +/- compared to the team's performance for that day). Bogans? Other than the strange game 1, he did performed rather consistently with the outcome, if not slightly better. The most fascinating thing is this - Bibby posted a NEGATIVE win/shares in the playoffs last year (-0.029), despite his team winning most of their games! This is really hard to do. Bogans? He posted a respectable 0.117 w/share per 48 (where 0.1 is considered the average player). The question then becomes this - the minutes lost by Bogans are now taken by Rip Hamilton. Is Rip, at his age, going to perform that much better than Bogans? I'm not sure. However, the minutes lost by Bibby, are now taken by rookie PG Norris Cole. Is Norris Cole going to play better defense than Mike Bibby? I can answer that emphatically and say yes. Is Norris Cole going to help the Heat run even more fast breaks? I can answer that emphatically and say yes - because he's much faster than Bibby at this point. So, the switch of Norris Cole for Mike Bibby seems to help the Heat even more than the one of Rip Hamilton for Bogans. Now, one could argue that the addition of Omer Asik will really turn the tables for the Bulls. However, I don't think that's going to be the case because Asik, even though he was great for rebounding and defense last year, can probably only help with Bosh and/or the center position. So, sadly, I'm left with the outcome I dread, which is that Lebron overcomes his stagefright and wins the NBA Championship.

1-Ok City over 2-Memphis

NBA Finals
2-Miami over 1-Ok City

All-Gutsy Team
PF - B. Griffin, Clippers
SF - Durant, Ok City
C - M. Gasol, Memphis
SG - Wade, Miami
PG - LeBron, Miami

Skynet Championship Series: Judgment Day in the Year 2011

2011-12-04T21:11:00.004-05:00

Judgment Day is upon us... and Skynet is once again in disagreement with the humans as it demands to see a game of LSU vs. Oklahoma State!

In case anyone was curious, this is the 6th version of Skynet... Skynet has only agreed with the humans ONCE (last year - Auburn vs. Oregon).

Here are the other years, if anyone was curious:
2010: Skynet and Humans: Auburn vs. Oregon
2009: Skynet: Bama vs. Cincy (got destroyed by Florida in a different game); BCS: Bama vs. Texas (got smoked by Bama)
2008: Skynet: Oklahoma vs. Texas; BCS: Oklahoma vs. Florida (won champ, despite Skynet snub)
2007: Skynet: LSU vs. Va. Tech; BCS: LSU vs. Ohio State
2006: Skynet: Ohio St vs. Michigan; BCS: Ohio St vs. Florida (won champ, despite Skynet snub)

What is most interesting is the narrow difference this year in the actual BCS rankings. The difference between Bama and Ok State was a mere .08 points (in the actual BCS). In Skynet this year Ok State finished ahead by 0.64 points. How does that rank relative to past years? Take a look at this table:

2009 - Cincy over Texas by 0.6
2008 - Texas over Florida by 1.02
2007 - Va. Tech over Ohio State by 1.6 (and over LSU - but this year was all screwed up with upsets)
2006 - Michigan over Floriday by only 0.03
Conclusion: It's a fairly big margin, but not that big in comparison to the limited data we have

If people were curious what the margins were in each of the computer polls (in terms of normalized values, in Skynet) here is the table:

	Sagarin	Anderson	Matrix	Wolfe
Bama	1.394	2.648	3.126	1.659
Ok State	2.129	0.798	0.437	2.925

But if anyone was curious, the two other computer rankings that are "biased" because they use human rankings at the beginning of the season for the initial rankings and are tainted, had normalized values of: Massey - Ok State - 1.740, Bama 1.988; Billingsley - Ok State 2.511, Bama 3.411. Amazingly, even in those rankings, Ok State was better than Bama!

But the thing that concerns me most about the computer polls? How in the world did Sagarin and Wolfe not end up with a greater change from Ok State beating Oklahoma? This is a strange question. Because the way the BCS is calculated, the computers only take 4 of the 6 computer rankings - throwing out the highest and lowest values. However, while the BCS takes into account every single vote, it merely just averages the values for the computer rankings (i.e. if you are 2nd in Sagarin, you get 24 points; if you are 3rd you get 23 points - no matter how close or far away the two teams are). So, let's play a BCS hypothetical: what happens if the BCS is still worth 1/3 but it uses a methodology to take into account normalized values? For this hypothetical I'll consider all 6 computer rankings:

	Total	Harris	Coaches	Computers - normalized
Bama	0.94713	0.9471	0.9485	0.94579
Ok State	0.939373	0.9231	0.9268	0.96822

Thus, it puts Ok State 0.002 closer to Bama. Not by as much as I thought it would actually! The more interesting part is how it would take very few ballots to be switched for Ok State to have made the big game. Once again, we realize that Skynet is supreme, because it's the only system where we can be certain that no one is paid off to switch their vote or keep their vote a certain way! That's it for this year. Skynet will have to remain angry once again!

Most underrated by the humans: Ok St, K STate, Oklahoma, Baylor, Georgia (The Big 12 was easily the best conference this year, unanimous by all the computers; the Big 12 won like 90% of its games out of conference)
Most overrated by the humans: Stanford, Oregon, Boise St, Wisconsin, Va. Tech, Mich St (wow, how things have changed. Boise State ended up on the overrated chart!)

2011		SCS	BCS	Sched Rnk	Harris	Coaches
1	LSU	0.10	1	14	1	1
2	Ok St	1.57	3	5	3	3
3	Bama	2.21	2	26	2	2
4	K St	6.32	8	13	10	10
5	Arkansas	6.99	6	34	7	7
6	Stanford	7.51	4	49	4	4
7	Oklahoma	8.36	14	2	19	19
8	Oregon	9.86	5	31	5	5
9	Baylor	9.99	12	7	16	16
10	Boise St	10.00	7	72	6	6
11	So. Car	10.82	9	33	9	9
12	Michigan	13.18	13	30	12	12
13	Georgia	13.45	16	22	18	18
14	Wisconsin	13.92	10	63	8	8
15	Va. Tech	14.18	11	52	11	11
16	Houston	15.64	19	100	17	17
17	Clemson	16.01	15	41	14	14
18	TCU	16.46	18	80	15	15
19	Nebraska	16.57	20	24	20	20
20	Mich St	17.65	17	61	13	13

Skynet Championship Series: Season Six, 1 week to go

2011-11-29T22:37:00.003-05:00

Most underrated by the humans: Ok St (wow! everyone hates them, but the computer love them.); Oklahoma, Kansas State, (the computers LOVE the Big 12!). My best guess is that each of these teams beat their "marquee" out of conference opponents, though they weren't great (Arizona, Miami(FL), TCU, UConn, Florida St)
Most overrated by the humans: Stanford, Virginia Tech, Mich St, Wisconsin

What does this mean? If Oklahoma State can beat Oklahoma, the computers will be choosing them this weekend to match up with LSU, not Alabama. Judgment Day is almost upon us!

2011		SCS	BCS	Sched Rnk	Harris	Coaches
1	lsu	0.15	1	16	1	1
2	ok state	2.02	3	5	5	5
3	bama	2.19	2	24	2	2
4	oklahoma	7.08	10	23	10	11
5	k st	7.32	11	13	15	15
6	arkansas	7.43	8	34	9	10
7	stanford	7.61	4	49	3	4
8	houston	8.19	6	112	6	6
9	boise st	9.45	7	53	8	8
10	so. Car	10.31	12	28	14	13
11	va tech	10.64	5	70	4	3
12	oregon	11.23	9	33	7	7
13	baylor	12.16	17	7	18	18
14	georgia	12.39	14	39	12	14
15	michigan	13.26	16	30	16	16
16	mich st	16.07	13	73	11	9
17	tcu	17.01	18	74	17	17
18	nebraska	17.05	19	27	19	19
19	wisconsin	17.22	15	77	13	12
20	clemson	18.25	20	43	20	21

Week 11 - Injuries galore

2011-11-16T20:30:00.002-05:00

Well, it's the middle of November, and it suddenly seems like most NFL teams are nursing numerous injuries, as is usually the case.

Manwich Matchup of the Week
Cincy @ Baltimore - Well, the Bengals lost last week to Pitt at home. The Bengals need to win here to keep pace... though they do get a 2nd crack at baltimore the last week of the season.
Pick: Baltimore

Upset of the Week
San Diego @ Chicago - Maybe this is the week the Chargers finally turn it around. I'm blindly suckered in at this point.
Pick: Chicago

Opening Round Playoff Game #11
Teams already eliminated: Tennessee, Indy, Cincy, Minnesota, Arizona, Jacksonville, Miami, Washington, Seattle, Cleveland
Jets @ Denver - The Jets have to win to keep pace. The Broncos... I just don't believe in the option as working at the professional level.
Jets

Fantasy Football Game of Interest:
KC @ New England - It's on monday night... and the amount of points the Pats are going to score is surely to keep a number of people on edge.
NE

Other Games
Tenn @ Atl - ATL
Buff @ MIAMI - Buff
Jack-o @ Cleve - Jack-o
Oak @ Minny - Oak
CAR @ Det - Det
TB @ GB - GB
Dallas @ Wash - Dallas
Arizona @ SF - SF
Sea @ STL - Sea
Philly @ Giants - Giants

Last Week: 6-10 (ouch!)
Season: 83-62
Manwich Matchup: 7-3 (The Saints came through in OT)
Upset of the Week: 3-7 (The Bengals couldn't do it)

Week 10 - Return of Stupid Thursday Games

2011-11-10T20:40:00.002-05:00

I'm not a fan of the Thursday games... but they are back. I apologize for the late posting.

Manwich Matchup of the Week
NO @ ATL - Saints are 6-3, Falcons 5-3 entering the game. This game is very important in the crowded NFC South and surprisingly, one of the teams will get knocked down to 4 losses, leaving even less room for error in the 2nd half. The stakes are high, but I tend to think the Falcons still don't have the firepower to get through this.
Pick: NO

Upset of the Week
OPitt @ Cincy - I think the Bengals are going to shock the world and beat the Steelers and continue to be in the playoff chase. I think the Bengals defense has been great, but this will be a tougher test.
Pick: Cincy

Opening Round Playoff Game #10
Teams already eliminated: Tennessee, Indy, Cincy, Minnesota, Arizona, Jacksonville, Miami, Washington, Seattle
St. Louis @ Cleveland - Well... this game is actually perfect for this point of the season. It's usually hard to find a perfect play-in game between bad teams, but I found one. Both teams have had injuries that have really hurt. The Rams keep losing WRs, the Browns keep losing RBs. Should be an ugly game, but I may watch it since it's one of the few left where the Browns could actually compete.
Pick: Cleveland

Fantasy Football Game of Interest:
Buffalo @ Dallas - The Bills high-flying offense has been grounded the last few weeks. Not sure what the truth is, but this is a pivotal game for both teams (Bills are 5-3 now, Cowboys 4-4). Both need to win to keep pace.
Pick: Dallas

Other Games
Oak @ SD - SD (the Chargers, as usual, keep shooting themselves in the foot. Hopefully, the bleeding ends tonight!)
Denver @ KC - KC
Jack-o @ Indy - Indy (to get a win, no one likes to be winless)
Houston @ Tampa - this is an interesting game, but I think I like Tampa because they are ridiculously hard to predict. Tampa
Tenn @ CAR - CAR
Wash @ Miami - Miami (2 game winning streak!, nice!)
Detroit @ Chicago - Detroit (this is a huge game in the NFC)
Arizona @ Philly - Philly
Balt @ Seattle - Baltimore
NYG @ SF - SF
New England @ Jets - NE
Minny @ GB - GB

Last Week: 8-5
Season: 77-52
Manwich Matchup: 6-3 (The Bills disappointed me again. Eesh.)
Upset of the Week: 3-6 (The Ravens did it and swept the Steelers).

Week 9 - Lots of good games!

2011-11-06T12:56:00.003-05:00

This week has lots of great games... and also lots of bad teams facing each other.

Manwich Matchup of the Week
Jets @ Bills - Wow. The Bills-Jets play each twice this month... and that will go a really long way to determining one of the AFC wildcards. Are the Bills for real? We are about to find out!
Pick: Bills (picking w/ my heart of course)

Upset of the Week
Baltimore @ Pitt - Usually, I'd just go with revenge. But after Polamalu's illegal play last week to end their game against the Pats, where Polamalu INTENTIONALLY batted the ball forward 20 yards, I just have no sympathy for Pitt. Hope Baltimore beats them by 30 again.
Pick: Baltimore

Opening Round Playoff Game #9
Teams already eliminated: Tennessee, Indy, Cincy, Minnesota, Arizona, Jacksonville, Miami, Washington
Seattle @ Dallas - Both teams really need a win... should be an easy way to get Seattle eliminated.
Pick: Dallas

Fantasy Football Game of Interest:
GB @ SD - Hope Rivers gets his head on straight! If GB wins this, their divisional games will be the only chance for them to lose.
Pick: GB

Other Games
Tampa @ NO - NO
ATl @ Indy - ATL
Miami @ KC - KC
SF @ Wash - Wash
Clev @ Hou - Hou
Cincy @ Tenn - Cincy
Denver @ Oakland - Oak
St. Louis @ Ariz - Ariz
Giants @ NE - NE
Chic @ Philly - Phily

Last Week: 8-5
Season: 69-47
Manwich Matchup: 6-2 (I still don't believe in the steelers, despite them beating the Pats. Yes, I'm blinded by hatred)
Upset of the Week: 2-6 (The Cowboys got killed by the Eagles. Oops).

Skynet Championship Series: Season Six, Week 2

2011-10-26T21:27:00.001-05:00

Most underrated by the humans: Ok St (wow! everyone hates them, but the computer love them.); K St, Va Tech, Houston

Most overrated by the humans: LSU (relatively speaking... computers have LSU at #3 by a slim margin); Stanford (Andrew Luck love); Oregon; Michigan State

2011		SCS	BCS	Sched Rnk	Harris	Coaches
1	ok st	0.83	3	15	3	4
2	bama	1.31	2	37	2	2
3	LSU	1.73	1	39	1	1
4	clemson	3.07	5	68	6	6
5	k st	3.13	8	66	10	12
6	boise st	4.11	4	49	5	5
7	arkansas	9.84	10	69	9	8
8	oklahoma	10.28	9	14	8	9
9	stanford	10.62	6	94	4	3
10	va tech	11.11	12	47	15	15
11	so. Car	12.13	13	40	14	14
12	tx a&M	12.20	16	5	17	16
13	houston	12.39	17	104	18	18
14	oregon	12.99	7	52	7	7
15	penn st	15.21	19	76	19	19
16	michigan	15.61	18	59	16	17
17	mich st	15.89	11	74	11	10
18	tx tech	16.63	20	35	21	22
19	nebraska	17.16	14	80	13	13
20	wisconsin	18.44	15	117	12	11

Week 8 - Last week QBs this week RBs

2011-10-26T20:49:00.002-05:00

The NFL is vicious. Last week, QBs were blowing up. This week... RBs. McFadden, E. Graham, P. Hillis (though he really doesn't count because Madden warned us first), Felix Jones, Beanie Wells, Ryan Mathews, Tim Hightower, J. Addai's hamstring, Jahvid Best's concussion, and Jerome Harrison had a brain tumor. It was a rough week. I wish I made up that tumor.

Anyways, let's hope there's less carnage this week:

Manwich Matchup of the Week
New England @ Pitt - Everyone thinks Pittsburgh is good because they've been so good for the last 15 years. I don't think they are very good though. And... the Pats own the Steelers for reasons I can't comprehend. It's been like that for 10 years.
Pick: New England

Upset of the Week
Dallas @ Philly - I think this game is a toss-up... and honestly, there really aren't any other upsets to pick this week. Whoever loses this game is going to have a lot of drama.
Pick: Dallas

Opening Round Playoff Game #8
Teams already eliminated: Tennessee, Indy, Cincy, Minnesota, Arizona, Jacksonville, Miami
Washington @ Buffalo - Well... the Bills gotta put up. I think the Redskins season is slipping away, so I hope the Bills put the Redskins into elimination!
Pick: Buff

Fantasy Football Game of Interest:
SD @ KC - If only because I still can't figure out which players are going to score TDs for these teams.
Pick: SD

Other Games
INdy @ Tenn - Pick: Tenn
Jack @ Hou - Pick: Hou
Ariz @ balt - balt
NO @ STl - NO
Minny @ Car - CAR
Miami @ NYG - NYG
Det @ Denver - detroit (i'm sick of Tebow)
Cleve @ SF - SF'
Cincy @ Sea - Cincy

Last Week: 6-7
Season: 61-42
Manwich Matchup: 6-1 (My love of the chargers burned me again as they blew it against the jets)
Upset of the Week: 2-5 (The Texans beat the Titans in an "upset"; but it was not a big line).

Week 7 - QBs are twirling, twirling

2011-10-20T21:16:00.002-05:00

The Raiders are insane. Carson Palmer is washed up... and the Raiders gave a minimum of a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pici. That's just crazy. They at least checked on Garrard, who needed back surgery. In other QB changes, the Broncos get Tebow this week, the Redskins switch from sexy Rexy to John Beck (for now), and the Vikings have already benched McNabb in favor of rookie C. Ponder.

Manwich Matchup of the Week
SD @ Jets - Both teams haven't exactly been sharp thus far. The Jets are highly unpredictable, but have looked awful enough, that I'm going with the Chargers.
Pick: SD

Upset of the Week
Houston @ Tenn - This game will go a long way to deciding who will win the AFC South... the Texans have to finally push through, right?!?
Pick: Houston

Opening Round Playoff Game #7
Teams already eliminated: Tennessee, Indy, Cincy, Minnesota, Arizona, Jacksonville
Denver @ Miami - Both teams stink. Both teams are on their 2nd QBs. The Dolphins haven't won yet and they are FAVORED this week! Ha.
Pick: Miami

Fantasy Football Game of Interest:
ATL @ Detroit - should be a fun shootout, because the Falcons haven't been able to play much defense this year for some reason... they gave up 28 points to the Seahawks!
Pick: Detroit

Other Games
Wash @ CAR - CAR
Chi @ TB - TB (the most inconsistent team this year... they beat good teams, lose to bad ones, and got creamed by 40 by the 49ers)
Sea @ Cle - Sea
KC @ Oak - Oak
Pitt @ Ariz - Pitt
GB @ Minny - GB
ST. Louis @ Dallas - Dallas
Indy @ NO - NO
Balt @ Jac - Balt

Last Week: 9-3
Season: 55-34
Manwich Matchup: 6-0 (The Pats beat the Cowboys barely!)
Upset of the Week: 1-5 (The Bills fell just short against the Giants)

Skynet Championship Series: Season Six

2011-10-18T22:39:00.003-05:00

I can't believe it's the 6th season that I've been doing this...

Skynet is back! A wise machine, Agent Smith, once said in the Matrix: “Never send a Human to do a machine’s job.” These inspiring words ring true with the BCS. The time has now come to achieve the BCS purpose – by providing OBJECTIVE rankings. I realize this may be counter to my rooting interests, but it is the only fair way to determine two teams.

So, to be clear, here’s how I devise the standings each week:
1) I take the top 20 of the BCS standings.
2) I input each of the top 20's computer standings from each of 4 computer rankings (Sagarin, Anderson, Colley-Matrix, Wolfe; the other two aren't included because they input human rankings to start and are therefore biased).
3) I let excel calculate the standard deviation for each computer ranking distribution of the top 20. Then, Excel normalizes the distribution, and fits EACH computer ranking onto a 1-20 scale.
4) Finally, the normalized-computer averages are determined (i.e. if Florida is ranked 5.76, 2.55, 2.21, 5.77 in 4 of the polls, which is an average of 4.07, which equals their SCS ranking. This means that according to the polls, they are approximately the 4th-best team in the country).

Most underrated by the humans: Ok St (wow! everyone hates them, but the computer love them.); Houston (undefeated and a ridiculous 12th in the computers, but just 22nd and 20th in the human polls); Va. Tech, Auburn, Kansas St

Most overrated by the humans: Wisconsin, Stanford, Nebraska, W. Va., Michigan St

Of course, there is a long time until the end of the season though. And remember, these are not my rankings, they are the rankings of the only objective entity in the universe... Skynet!

2011 Skynet Rankings - Week of 10/19

2011		SCS	BCS	Sched Rnk	Harris	USA Today
1	OK St	1.07	4	8	6	6
2	Alabama	1.27	2	36	2	3
3	LSU	2.06	1	56	1	2
4	Oklahoma	2.75	3	20	3	1
5	Clemso	2.77	7	77	8	8
6	boise st	4.18	5	42	5	7
7	Kansas St	5.56	11	67	12	16
8	wisconsin	10.62	6	129	4	4
9	Arkansas	11.55	9	61	10	10
10	Stanford	11.61	8	112	7	5
11	Va tech	12.76	12	37	16	14
12	Houston	13.57	19	125	22	20
13	So. Car	13.86	14	59	13	12
14	Oregon	14.48	10	41	9	8
15	Nebraska	14.76	13	40	11	11
16	Auburn	15.24	20	24	21	23
17	Michigan	15.56	18	52	17	17
18	Texas A&M	16.10	17	2	19	18
19	W. Va.	17.32	15	78	14	14
20	Mich St.	18.18	16	88	15	13

Week 6 - The Rise of Tim Tebow?

2011-10-12T22:03:00.003-05:00

Now that it's the rise of Tim Tebow, can we start a new controversy involving Brady Quinn?

Manwich Matchup of the Week
Dallas @ New England - I think this is the kind of game Tony Romo plays unusually well in... the game against a team that he should lose to. However, I think New England will score 49 points, and Dallas will only score 42.
Pick: Pats

Upset of the Week
Buff @ NYG - Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills! I just don't believe in these Giants at all. If Seattle was scoring lots of points on them... that's just trouble.
Pick: Buff

Opening Round Playoff Game #6
Teams already eliminated: Tennessee, Indy, Cincy, Minnesota, Arizona
Jacksonville @ Pitt - There really wasn't any game this week involving two shitty teams (well, Indy vs. cincy, but I think Cincy may be good and I already ousted both of those teams)
Pick: Pitt

Fantasy Football Game of Interest:
New Orleans @ Tampa - Tampa has been the most inconsistent team this year (blown out by Lions, beat the Falcons, blown out by 49ers, almost lost to the Vikings). Should be an interesting game.
Pick: New Orleans

I can't believe it's not Spam Game:
San Fran (4-1) @ Detroit (5-0) - I don't think anyone had this game being this amazing. It should be a fun game... because I still am not sure what to make out of either of these teams.
Pick: Detroit

Other Games
Philly @ Wash - Philly (this is the week they do rebound!)
CAR @ Atl - Atl
Indy @ cincy - cincy
Hous @ Balti - Balt
Cleve @ Oak - Oak
Minny @ chi - chi
Miami @ jets - Jets

Last Week: 6-7
Season: 46-31
Manwich Matchup: 5-0 (The Pats beat the Jets handily!)
Upset of the Week: 1-4 (The Bears let up two, long, costly plays against the lions)

Week 5 - Mission: Impossible

2011-10-05T17:37:00.002-05:00

For some reason, I can't seem to figure out any of the games this week... they are all toss-ups, and I just hope I can hit the .500 mark!

Manwich Matchup of the Week
Jets @ Pats - Always a big game. The Jets come in under a 2-game losing streak... a loss here puts them in yet another poor position of having to get a wildcard. It seems like the stakes are high already! However, I always believe in REVENGE.... and the Pats will be looking for some relentless, ruthless revenge after the Jets beat them in the playoffs last year.
Pick: Pats

Upset of the Week
Chicago @ Detroit - This game seems like a complete toss-up to me. The Vegas line is currently 6 points for the Lions. SIX POINTS?!? I like the Lions... but something tells me that not having Romo in there to gift-wrap a victory will have them crashing back to earth this week.
Pick: Chicago

Opening Round Playoff Game #5
Teams already eliminated: Tennessee, Indy, Cincy, Minnesota
Arizona @ Minnesota - Well, the vikings got "eliminated" last weekend. I think this is the weekend they finally win!
Pick: Minnesota

Fantasy Football Game of Interest
Philly @ Buff - Should be an interesting game... the Eagles are desperate too and the Bills have to prove that they are no fluke.
Pick: Buffalo (I don't believe in the Philly O-line or D-Line)

Other Games
KC @ Indy - Pick: Indy
Oak @ Houston - Pick: Houston
NO @ CAR - NO
CIncy @ Jack - Cincy
Tenn @ Pitt - Tennessee
Seattle @ NYG - NYG
Tampa @ SF - Tampa
SD @ Denver - Denver
GB @ ATL - GB
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 40-24
Manwich Matchup: 4-0 (The Texans stomped on the Steelers!)
Upset of the Week: 1-3 (The Jets were awful against the ravens)

Week 4 - Fumble-itis and snap counts

2011-09-29T17:37:00.003-05:00

I really enjoyed that insane Buffalo win last weekend! I think that is one of the more memorable upsets I've picked... though I certainly had no confidence in it when the Bills were down 21-0.

I also really enjoyed the Cowboys and Redskins accusations this week that the Redskins were messing with the snap count (not allowed), and the Redskins accusations that the Cowboys are pathetic liars. Good stuff!

Manwich Matchup of the Week
Pitt @ Houston - The Texans lost a crazy shootout last week... I think this is the week that they prove they are legitimate playoff contenders!! (especially since Pitt's line is banged up)
Pick: Houston

Upset of the Week
Jets @ Ravens - The Jets are coming off a surprising loss to the Raiders... the Ravens are coming off a thrashing of the Rams where they unleased a new weapon, their 2nd-round WR, Torrie Smith, who is super-fast. Could be a decoy the rest of the season, and that alone would make him successful. I think I like the Jets in an upset this week... mainly because there are so few other upsets to pick this week!
Pick: Jets

Opening Round Playoff Game #4
Teams already eliminated: Tennessee, Indy, Cincy
Minnesota @ KC - They are both winless. The loser will be 0-4 and certainly won't make it! Who will be in more despair??? It's a tossup
Pick: Minnesota

Fantasy Football Game of Interest
New England @ Oakland - I'm expecting a crazy shootout! Buckle up! No one plays defense in this one.
Pick: New England

Other Games
NO @ Jac - NO
Det @ Dallas - Pick: Dallas (should be an interesting game)
Bills @ Bungals - Bills
Wash @ St. Louis - St. Louis
SF @ Philly - Philly
Tenn @ Cleve - Pick: Clev
CAR @ Chi - Pick: Chi
ATL @ SEa - ATL
NYG @ Ariz - NYG
Denver @ GB - GB
Miami @ SD - SD
Indy @ Tampa - Pick: Tampa
Last Week: 11-5 (hooray for respectability)
Season: 31-17
Manwich Matchup: 3-0 (The Saints beat the Texans)
Upset of the Week: 1-2 (The BIlls came through huge for me!)

Week 3 - As usual... we don't know what's happening!

2011-09-20T20:52:00.003-05:00

The Redskins, Lions, and Bills are all undefeated! It's a good thing I bet on that before the season began. Yeah, right. The stranger thing? I think I'm picking Bills, Lions, and Redskins to be 3-0...

Manwich Matchup of the Week
Houston @ New Orleans - Wow. The Saints have a brutal schedule to start (Green Bay, Chicago, now Houston). This is one of those games where if the Texans win... everyone in the nation will jump on their bandwagon. I just don't think they're ready for that kind of treatment yet.
Pick: New Orleans

Upset of the Week
New England @ Buffalo - The Patriots are coming off of a huge win against San Diego. The Bills are also 2-0... but honestly the Patriots defense hasn't been that great. Yes, they forced some turnovers against San Diego, but I think the Bills are going to surprise the Patriots.
Pick: Buffalo

Opening Round Playoff Game #3
Teams already eliminated: Tennessee, Indy
SF & Cincy - I realize the Bengals weren't too far away from winning last week, as well as the 49ers, but I have no faith in either of these teams. None.
Pick: SF

Fantasy Football Game of Interest
GB & Chi - Well, outside of Houston & New Orleans it's pretty slim pickings this week in terms of amazing fantasy matchups, especially with both Philly & Dallas nursing injuries.
Pick: GB

Other Games
Detroit @ Minny - 3-0 for the lions!
Giants @ Eagles - Pick: Eagls
Jags @ Panthers - Pick: Panthers
Denver @ Titans - Pick: Titans
Miami @ Cleve - Pick: Browns
KC @ SD - Pick: SD
Baltimore @ St. Louis - Pick: BAltimore
Jets @ Oakland - Pick: Jets
GB @ Bears - Pick: Bears
ATL @ TB - Pick: ATL
Arizona @ Seattle - Pick: Arizona
Pitt @ Indy - Pick: Pitt
Washington @ Dallas - Pick: Washington

Last Week: 13-3 (hooray for respectability)
Season: 20-12
Manwich Matchup: 2-0 (The Pats beat my beloved Super-chargers)
Upset of the Week: 0-2 (The Cardinals looked good... then they blew it against the Redskins)

NCAA conference realignments: A lesson in history, leading to a scary conclusion

2011-09-18T21:12:00.006-05:00

I'm not as big into college football as other readers/writers on our blog. However, I've been extremely intrigued by the endless turmoil over the last 1.5 years.

I was reading an article on Yahoo which led me to an amazing, well-researched, historical piece on the Atlantic.com , chronicling all of the insanity of the NCAA. Some of my favorite moments:
1) in 1939, freshman players at Pitt went on strike because they were getting paid less than their upperclassman teammates. "Embarrassed, the NCAA in 1948 enacted a “Sanity Code,” which was supposed to prohibit all concealed and indirect benefits for college athletes", but the 'Sanity code' was repelaed within a few years
2) In 1951, the NCAA hired Walter Byers as executive director. Then: " he lobbied a University of Kentucky dean—A. D. Kirwan, a former football coach and future university president—not to contest the NCAA’s dubious legal position (the association had no actual authority to penalize the university), pleading that college sports must do something to restore public support. His gambit succeeded when Kirwan reluctantly accepted a landmark precedent: the Kentucky basketball team would be suspended for the entire 1952–53 season. Its legendary coach, Adolph Rupp, fumed for a year in limbo."
3) At the 1951 NCAA convention, there was a vote of "161–7 to outlaw televised games except for a specific few licensed by the NCAA staff." At this time, they were more concerned that people would stay at home and not attend games (and di not realize how much moeny could be made from advertising on the broadcasts).
4) Then... "On June 6, 1952, NBC signed a one-year deal to pay the NCAA $1.14 million for a carefully restricted football package. Byers routed all contractual proceeds through his office. He floated the idea that, to fund an NCAA infrastructure, his organization should take a 60 percent cut; he accepted 12 percent that season. (For later contracts, as the size of television revenues grew exponentially, he backed down to 5 percent.) Proceeds from the first NBC contract were enough to rent an NCAA headquarters, in Kansas City. "
5) In 1961, Byers "negotiated the NCAA’s television package up to $3.1 million per football season—which was higher than the NFL’s figure in those early years."
6) "In 1981 a rogue consortium of 61 major football schools threatened to sign an independent contract with NBC for $180 million over four years. With a huge chunk of the NCAA’s treasury walking out the door, Byers threatened sanctions." However, Georgia and Oklahoma responded with an antitrust suit, which led to a landmark 1984 case. " NCAA v. Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the NCAA’s latest football contracts with television—and any future ones—as an illegal restraint of trade that harmed colleges and viewers. Overnight, the NCAA’s control of the television market for football vanished." This decision allowed the schools to each sell any games they wanted to... and perhaps more relevant to today's happenings, there was no requirement to share revenues with smaller schools.
7) Interestingly though, basketball revenue from the NCAA tourney COVERED the losses of the football revenue (because the NCAA was just taking a % cut of the football, as opposed to who knows what amount of the revenues from the NCAA tourney). "During the 1980s, income from the March Madness college basketball tournament, paid directly by the television networks to the NCAA, grew tenfold. The windfall covered—and then far exceeded—what the organization had lost from football. "
8) The Atlantic.com touches on a lot of different topics, including the NCAA's "amateurism," and how it never has been accomplished, the fact that NFL players association gets paid $35 million per year for use of their likenesses by EA sports but college athletes themselves get paid nothing, as well as the Ed O'Bannon case, which is trying to get money paid to college athletes for use of their likenesses on jerseys, video games, etc.... but the article all culminates with one theory... the NCAA receives 95% of its revenues from the men's baksetball tournament. ... which leads to some chilling truths:
a_ "if the big sports colleges don’t need the NCAA to administer a national playoff in football, then they don’t need it to do so in basketball. In which case, they could cut out the middleman in March Madness and run the tournament themselves. Which would deprive the NCAA of close to $1 billion a year, more than 95 percent of its revenue."
b) "To alienate member colleges would be to jeopardize its own existence. Long gone are television bans and the “death penalty” sentences (commanding season-long shutdowns of offending teams) once meted out to Kentucky (1952), Southwestern Louisiana (1973), and Southern Methodist University (1987). Institutions receive mostly symbolic slaps nowadays. Real punishments fall heavily on players and on scapegoats like literacy tutors."

Which leads me to one frightening conclusion... what is stopping the 4 super conferences (I'm assuming Big East and Big 12 case to exist, or no longer get a spot at the BCS table) from breaking away from the NCAA... AND ALSO forming their own basketball tournament? Suddenly, there are millions more (or whatever it is that the NCAA keeps from that $771 million contract) for the 4 super conferences to split for themselves (ACC, Big10, Pac16, SEC16). I suppose the alternative to this scenario is that the NCAA makes a deal with the Big 4 to save itself... and continue to let the Big 4 do whatever it wants in football. What would be stopping the Big 4 from making a grab for the basketball money too? Not that I want them too, but the Big 4 could even spin it as a way for ALL of the schools to get paid MORE (with of course paying out more money to schools that go farther which, most of the time other than Butler time, is going to be a school from the Super-4).

Week 2 - I'm Really Doing picks now!

2011-09-14T16:00:00.001-05:00

All right... a bit of a snafu last week, and that's not even counting my awful picks. Week 1 of the season is always an eye-opener as you start to get a gauge on where everyone is at.

Manwich Matchup of the Week
San Diego @ NE - I think I'm still angry about how the Pats ruined the Chargers magical 14-2 season back in like 2006. I really wish the Chargers could win, but it seems like too much to ask at this point, especially if Belichick has the Pats passing for 500 yards every game.
Pick: NE

Upset of the Week
Arizona @ Washington - The Redskins are 4.5 point favorites? I just don't get it. I'll go with Kolb and the Cardinals. Otherwise, Rex Grossman will win 2 starts in a row. Speaking of Sexy Rexy, did anyone out there have Rex Grossman (Washington), Luke McCown (Jacksonville), AND Andy Dalton (Cincy) as winning their games last week? Those were probably the 3 most questionable starters on the board and they all won!
Pick: Arizona

Opening Round Playoff Game #2
Teams already eliminated: Tennessee
Cleveland @ Indy - With the Browns choking last week against the awful Bengals, and the Colts laying a big fat egg against the Texans, I think both teams will be going for broke this week. It would seem really unlikely that either 0-2 team could make a run to the playoffs. I've got to believe in the Shurminator... he came from the future to save the Browns (or at least i hope that's what's going on).
Pick: Cleveland

Fantasy Football Game of Interest
Philly @ ATL - Vick against his old team! Plus, Michael Turner, Roddy White and all the other Falcons. Should be a fun Sunday night game for sure.
Pick: Philly

Other Games
Chicago @ New Orleans - Saints rebound
KC @ Detroit - Go Lions!
Jacksonville @ Jets - Jets keep winning
Oakland @ Buffalo - someone gets to go 2-0... I'll go with Buffalo
Baltimore @ Tenn - Pick: Baltimore
Seattle @ Pitt - Pick: Pitt
GB @ CAR - Pick: GB
Tampa @ Minnesota - Not sure why minny's favored, I'll go with Tampa
Dallas @ SF - Pick: Dallas
Houston @ Miami - Pick: Houston
Cincy @ Denver - Pick: Denver
St. Louis @ Giants - Pick: Giants (both teams really banged up sadly)

Last Week: 7-9 (yowsers!)
Season: 7-9
Manwich Matchup: 1-0 (Baltimore gave Steelers a wedgie, the coach a wedgie, and the coach's son an atomic wedgie)
Upset of the Week: 0-1 (Dallas had the Jets right where they wanted them... then they blew it)

Past Years - I'm good in the odd years, just like the San Antonio Spurs

2004 – 150-106
Manwich Matchup: 7-11
Upset Special: 7-9

2005 – 160-96
Manwich Matchup: 10-7
Upset Special: 3-14 (That’s not a misprint)

2006: 148-108
Manwich Matchup: 12-7
Upset Special: 5-12

2007 - 166-90
Manwich Matchup: 13-4
Upset Special: 8-9

2008 - 149-106-1
Manwich Matchup: 11-8
Upset Special: 1-16 (that's also not a misprint)

2009 - 165-91
Manwich Matchup: 10-7
Upset of the Week: 8-9

2010 - 159-97
Manwich: 10-8
Upset of the Week: 9-9

Week 1 of the NFL Season

2011-09-09T22:25:00.003-05:00

I apologize for the late posting... I had Green Bay over New Orleans in the coin flip game on Thursday night... without much further ado... let's welcome the 1st week of the season!

Manwich Matchup of the Week
Pitt @ Baltimore - Since GB and New Orleans already played, and it seems cheap of me to use that as tthe Manwich game, we'll just use Pitt and Baltimore. Always a slugfest. Always injuries. Boy, I hate both of these teams. However, just for the record, both teams play the NFC West and AFC West this year, which should give each of them at least 7 wins, plus 2 wins each against the Bengals. Meaning... they are both going to the playoffs barring something crazy.
Pick: Baltimore
Upset of the Week
Dallas @ Jets - the cowboys offens is awesome... nothing like some drama for the jets to start the season!
Pick: Dallas

Opening Round Playoff Game #1
Tennessee @ Jacksonville - Not sure what to make of these teams. Tennesee has hasselbeck and a rookie qB; Jags starting a rookie Qb. who knows.
Pick: tennesseee

Fantasy Football Game of Interest
Philly @ Rams - Vick, Bradford, some new rams WRs to pick up!
Pick: Philly

Det @ TB - TB
Buf @ KC - KC
ATL @ Chi - ATL
Indy @ Hou - Hou (should win the division sans Manning, Garrard, right?)
Cincy @ Cleve - clev
CAR @ Ariz - ariz
Minny @ SD - sd
Giants @ redskins - giants
Sea @ SF - Sea
NE @ Miami - NE
Oakland @ Denver - Oak

Next week, I'll actually take some time on this!

Congratulations MJ

2011-09-06T16:57:00.006-05:00

I want to be the first on this blog to congratulate our resident sports enthusiastic and rage-a-holic on his wonderful wedding. Hopefully MJ will be getting some much needed R&R on his honeymoon and come back fully charged with his plethora of sports knowledge and sports rage.

Congrats Bro!

2011 NFL Preview - Back to Football, and Back to Goodell's Iron Fist

2011-09-05T13:46:00.005-05:00

I'm excited to write yet another NFL Preview. As a warning, my previous picks are not great, by any means. In 2010, I picked Baltimore over ATL (both at least made the playoffs, and ATL was a surprise 1-seed), In 2009, I picked San Diego over Green Bay, but both lost in the divisional playoffs; in 2008, I picked Dallas over New England, and neither made the playoffs; in 2007, I picked New England over New Orleans - the Pats at least went undefeated, interestingly, New Orleans did win a couple of years later finally; in 2006, I had Indy over Giants - I actually hit the Colts, and the Giants ended up winning in 2007; in 2005, I had Carolina over Indy, but Indy lost in that crazy game to Pittsburgh, and CAR stumbled in the conference championship; and 2004 is not archived anywhere but I'm sure it was poor.

So... if past seasons are any indication, my PREDICTED super bowl losers (every year but 2008), end up ascending to win the Super Bowl the next season! It's a rather strange phenomenon that I wasn't aware of until just now.

AFC - I think the Pats, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, and Chargers are all HEAVY favorites to make the playoofs...

AFC East
3-New England - Another year, another 1st round exit. In 2010, it was their hated rivals, the Jets. In 2009, it was Baltimore who just thrashed the Patriots. In 2008, they somehow didn't make the playoffs. In 2007, they got upset by the Giants. It will be interesting to see what the Patriots do this year, because, as always, the only goal is to win the super bowl. Maybe less emphasis on the regular season? Not sure what the answer is, because there is no simple answer for their dilemma.
5-NY Jets - They are still bona fide contenders... but I still think the Pats can perform better over a season than the Jets.
Buffalo - Should be fun to watch at least, because QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played great in the 2nd half last year, as did WR Stevie Johnson
Miami - The QB situation is shaky, so I have to downgrade them to last place prediction.

AFC North
2- Baltimore - Added WR Lee Evans opposite WR Boldin which is an upgrade. Should be contenders all season.
6-Pittsburgh - Made the Super Bowl last year, and lost. In the last decade, only two teams (seattle, and Arizona) were able to make the playoffs the year after losing in the super bowl. The Steelers seem too good though... and barring injury, I'm guessing they'll grab the last spot.
Cleveland - Pro Bowl guard Steinbach is out for the season, and they are starting a rookie in his place. The defensive linemen have 2 rookies and another starter with few NFL experience. Plus a new coach means the Browns are still in transition.
Cincy - really in transition! Their surprise division title in 2009 seems like some kind of mythical fantasy.

AFC South
4-Houston - I'm getting suckered in once again, that this year, will finally be the year for the Texans! I'm banking on Manning's health being a major reason why (plus the Texans somehow got lucky and drew Indy for the 1st season)
Indy - It's a really bad division, and the other 2 teams drafted rookie QBs who may play this year, so the colts still get 2nd place.
Tennessee - I like Hasselbeck stepping in with RB Chris Johnson and their defense to edge out the Jags for the cellar.
Jacksonville - They spent lots of money in the offseason, but the QB situation is unsettled so I'm not sure what to expect.

AFC West
1-San Diego - The Chargers finished last year 1st in offensive yardage, 1st in defensive yardage, but had a -6 turnover differential (23rd) and gave up a bunch of return TDs, resulting in a disappointing 9-7 finish. That's pretty much worst-case scenario (in terms of turnovers and special teams), so I expect the Chargers to do big, BIG things this year!
KC - It was fun seeing them unexpectedly win the division then get creamated in the playoffs by Baltimore. Just remember that this year when they play more to their level.
Oakland - there are slight rumors of Oakland being a surprise team this year. They finished in the top-10 in offense and defense, surprisingly. Still couldn't tell you exactly what the WR depth chart is. They actually were 7-5 with QB Jason Campbell starting, who posted another 84 QB rating. He really is consistent, not great, but if he plays a little bit, Oakland can make things interesting.
Denver - Kyle Orton has been playing well, but this year, they have John Fox as the coach, so the offense won't be nearly as offensive (but the defense won't be nearly as porous).

NFC - I think Philly, GB, ATL, New Orleans are HEAVY favorites to make the playoffs. This leaves one wildcard for Chicago, Tampa, Giants, Cowboys, Lions; and one division title for the NFC West...

NFC East -
2 - Philly - Philly just went on a crazy shopping spree during the offeseason, picking up the best available DB Asomugha, the Giants best WR Steve Smith (who's recovering from a knee injury), among others. This team is downright scary, so long as Vick is healthy.
6-Cowboys - they can't be any worse than last year defensively, plus they finished the season 5-3. This is a team to watch, because offensively they are just flat out dangerous.
Giants - they had to rebuild the offensive line after dumping out 3 starters. They lost their top CB to injury. I smell lots of trouble here and the tailspin from that DeSean Jackson punt return TD that ruined their season last year looks to be irreversible.
Redskins - should be the worst team in the league with either John Beck or Rex Grossman at QB. It needs to be mentioned, John Beck wasn't able to enter practice the 1st day back because not even security recognized him!

NFC North -
3-GB - Still a very solid team. Earn a super bowl title and they were worthy of it.
Lions - If Stafford stay s healthy, this could be the surprise team of the year!
Bears - played over their heads for a division title... then got ousted by GB in the playoffs.
Vikings - McNabb is the QB temporarily which should provide shaky results.

NFC South-
1-NO- Should rebound from their sub-par showing during the season and loss to 7-9 Seattle in the playoffs.
5-ATL - Solid team still. Gave up too much for WR Julio Jones, but they clearly are in super bowl or bust mode.
TB - Young team built almost entirely through the draft. Division is brutal, so it's hard to say what their chances are of breaking through.
CAR - They hired Rob Chudzinski as offensive coordinator, who was the off. coordinator for the Browns in 2007. You know who else he brought with him? QB Derek Anderson, who had that one magic-in-a-bottle season! They claim they are starting #1 pick Cam Newton, but honestly, with just Jimmy Clausen standing in the way, we may not be that far away from seeing lots of 2007 Browns highlights!

NFC West - (last year, had a 7-9 champ!)
4- St. Louis - I fully expect Sam Bradford, reinvigorated by new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels (who's now had offensive success at New England and St. Louis), to help lead the Rams to a division record with at least 8 wins. You heard it hear first!
Arizona - Could pull off a big surprise depending on how well Kolb plays with Fitzgerald and the other young WRs (Breaston is now gone too).
Seattle - I'm not sure why they signed WR Sidney Rice AND QB Tarvaris Jackson. T. Jackson is their starter now... and I'm not sure what to expect. He has 20 starts, with a 10-10 record. I'm not too optimistic though.
SF - New coach Jim Harbaugh (of the first borther combination in NFL coaching history), as is work cut out for him. He's planning on starting QB Alex Smith only temporarily.

AFC Playoffs
3- New England vs. 6- Pittsburgh - Well, here's something that will cure New England's playoff drought... the Steelers. The Pats own them for reasons I can't determine.
Pick: New England
4- Houston vs. 5-Jets - The Texans make the playoffs... but I don't think the run will last long.
Pick: Jets
1 -San Diego vs. 5-Jets - LT and Antonio Cromartie get to play their old team! Okay, seriously though, the Chargers can handle this task. I'm sure of it.
Pick: SD
2- Baltimore vs. 3 - New England - This game is a doozy. I'm sure the Pats will be fired up by their loss in 2009. I love revenge and payback!
Pick: New Engalnd

1-SD vs 3- New England - in the last decade, the Chargers have lost to the Pats twice in the playoffs. Because I love revenge, I think this is the year the Chargers break through!
Pick: SD

NFC Playoffs
3-GB vs 6- Cowboys - the packers will win a wildly entertaining game, forcing Tony Romo to puke in his mouth.
4-St Louis vs 5- ATL - An old NFC West showdown! ATL makes sure their run lasts more than one game this time.
1- NO vs. 5 - ATL - These divisional matchups are complete tossups. However, I picked ATL to lose in the super bowl last year, so they are destined for great things.
2-Philly vs. 3- GB - It's only fitting that the Eagles draw the Packers again. Last year's game went to the wire. I don't see why this would be any different, except with a new outcome.
2-Philly vs. 5-ATL - Vick vs his old team. This could fetch the highest ratings of any playoff game ever. No matter what the outcome, it sure will be a great game on both offense and defense.
Pick: ATL

Super Bowl
ATL over SD - If only because I've become self-aware that my picks are able to forecast the future! Honestly, you can make a case for any of NE, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, Philly, GB, NO, or ATL winning the super bowl, and it would be completely reasonable!

Good luck to everyone and hope we have a great season!

Meet Your 2011 NFL Rookie Coaching Class

2011-08-27T21:18:00.014-05:00

Nothing is more informative (and fun) than looking at the new head coaches in the NFL! The 2010 2009, 2008, 2007, and 2006 editions of the NFL Rookie Coaching Classes are also fun reads, if you are curious. My favorites from past editions are still Coach Mangina (Eric Mangini, class of 2006), The Whizzenator, aka nobody beats the Whizz (Ken Whisenhunt, class of 2007), and the Todd (Todd Haley, class of 2009).

After a lackluster year in 2010, where all the new coaches were actually people who already had experience, we have some new, actually first-time coaches this year.

1. Cleveland Browns- Pat Shurmur
Proposed nickname: The Shurminator

With Mike Holmgren being in charge of the Browns, this new coach obviously has to be connected to the great Holmgren coaching tree, and Shurmur was QB coach of the Eagles from 1999-2008 before being the Rams offensive coordinator for two seasons. Those weren't great seasons, though he did get to coach Sam Bradford last year, but all of the WRs got injured and he had a rookie QB, so the results were mixed. I see no way of avoiding calling this coach the Shurminator: he is a sophisticated coach, sent back in time to change the future for one lucky franchise (or so I hope). It's been a long time since I've seen American Pie, which had the original Sherminator, so here's a clip of that awesome moment.

2. Tennessee Titans - Mike Munchak
Proposed Nickname: Munchie
He's been the offensive line coach for the Titans/Oilers (yes, that long) since 1997. His Titans profile has a lot of the usual information, plus the fact that he secured regional distribution rights to Snapple and became the owner of a number of Gold Gyms in Texas.

3. Oakland Raiders - Hue Jackson
Proposed Nickname: Hue Downs
I really didn't know much about this guy. He's only 45, but he's already held 12 different coaching positions from Pacific, Cal State Fullerton, London Monarchs (yes, the defunct World League of American Football!), Arizona State, California, USC, Redskins, Bengals, Falcons, Ravens, and was the offensive coordinator for Oakland last year. Most notably, he was the offensive coordinator for the Redskins in 2003 (22nd in points, w/ Ramsey and TIM Hasselbeck starting, under Steve Spurrier), the Falcons in 2007 (29th in points, w/ Harrington, Redman, and Leftwich starting, while head coach Petrino quit midway through), and the Raiders in 2010 (6th in points, w/ Jason Campbell and Gradkowski). I don't know what to make of this guy. He's worked for some of the craziest people ever (Spurrier, Petrino, Al Davis), and installs college offenses. Last year, he was successful with it, so who knows.

4. Dallas Cowboys - Jason Garrett
Proposed Nickname: The Gunslinger
He was the interim coach, and now is finally the coach. He has been with the Cowboys since 2007 as the offensive coordinator and has seen them score lots of points. No idea what will hapen with the defense, but it should be a fun season!

5. Minnesota Vikings - Leslie Frazier
Proposed Nickname: Drebin!
He actually was a head coach once upon a time, at Trinity College from 1988-1996. He's been defensive coordinator with the Vikings since 2007, and was defensive coordinator with the Bengals from 2003-2004. With a first name of Leslie, he must carry the namesake of Leslie Nielsen from Naked Gun and be dubbed, Drebin! Lt. Frank Drebin if we are acting professional.

6. Carolina Panthers - Ron Rivera
Proposed Nickname: Ron-Ron
He was the defensive coordinator with the Bears from 2004-2006, and with the Chargers from 2008-2010. He also was a linebacker on the 1985 Bears championship team! His wife was an assistant coach in the WNBA. Love the weird facts some teams include in the bios.

7. San Francisco 49ers - Jim Harbaugh
Proposed Nickname: Captain Comeback
The most famous of the entire list, he was the coach at Stanford just from 2007-2010, after being the coach at San Diego from 2004-2006. He's had a meteoric rise. He is most famous for being a Chicago Bears QB, but I always remember him for a crazy postseason run with the Colts when he almost completed a hail mary to beat the Steelers in the AFC Championship game. According to wikipedia, Harbaugh and his brother John are the first brothers to be coaches in the NFL. The nickname Captain Comeback is from that ridiuclous 1995 NFL postseason run, 2 come-from behind victories, and the almost hail mary. Im open to other suggestions, such as "Little Brother Jim."

Welcome Back NFL!

2011-07-26T21:24:00.003-05:00

I was originally going to try to do some kind of free agency preview for the NFL, but it's literally impossible with 400 free agents, plus who knows how many people are going to be salary cut victims. It could mean about 500 players changing hand, which is just preposterous... plus this is taking place over a mere 5 to 10 days.

Anyways, my favorite headlines of the first half day of free agency...

1) The Seahawks signing QB Tavaris Jackson, not Hasselbeck

2) The Seahawks signing QB Matt Leinart to reunite him with his old coach from USC. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Reggie Bush.

3) The Redskins outbidding themselves for WR Santana Moss's services... and finding out that Santana Moss is only 32, despite the fact that I thought he was 36.

4) The Eagles deciding not to re-sign ANY of their free agents! (I also have to give a shout-out to RB Jerome Harrison- please come back to Cleveland, the Browns still need a change-of-pace back, because everyone knows our bruising RB Peyton Hillis isn't going to survive the Madden curse)

Stuff

2011-07-19T08:47:00.002-05:00

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/6782785/yao-ming-set-announce-retirement-basketball

Not surprising, but sad nonetheless. Yao was fun to watch, and when healthy was pretty dominating. I guess he our generation's Bill Walton. Is Greg Oden going to be next one to wear the "perpetually-injured-center" crown?

And then, onto Women's World Cup. I have to say, that was a really exciting team to watch. I am sadly disappointed we did not win, but in light of recent events, I am happy for the Japanese people. They needed a win.

That being said, we deserved to win that game. We played amazing in the first half, but just couldn't close the deal. In the second half we played well, but key mistakes cost us heavily. I was impressed with Japan's ability not to become too deflated or tired after the first half, but overall was not impressed with their talent. However, I feel really energized by our team, and with the exception of Wambach, all our key players will be there in four years. I think this team has a great future and hope some of their talent and poise can transfer to the men's team. Plus, Hope Solo is a megahottie; I want to party with her.

World Team Tennis - Everything I Dreamed of and More

2011-07-15T08:15:00.003-05:00

This past week, I finally attended my first ever World Team Tennis match. What is World Team Tennis you ask? It's a league where each of 9 cities have a team of current pros, up-and-coming pros (i.e. lower ranked), and then a few legends sprinkled in. When there's a match, they play 5 slightly abbreviated sets of: 1) men's singles, 2) ladies singles, 3) mixed doubles, 4) women's doubles, 5) men's doubles. However, to keep things interesting, the overall score for the match is based on number of games won. So essentially, both teams will always be in it until the end! However, the best thing was how much fun the event was. This is not normal tennis where everyone is hush-hush. It combined elements of other sporting events (dance music in between points, an MC to pump up the crowd, towel-waving, and even cheerleaders!).

I picked a date to see the Washington Kastles play the New York team, and while I originally thought I was going to see either Venus or Serena and John McEnroe (yes, the 52-year old) and Martina Hingis, it ended up being just McEnroe and Hingis as the superstars this night.

In terms of the tennis itself, the quality was fantastic. Both teams had players who knew how to play doubles (i.e. Leander Paes, Stubbs, McEnroe, Hingis). In addition, the points were competitive and top-notch. The rules for the game are pretty insane in that the overall game total is used. However, in the last set of the night, if the team that is losing in overall games wins the set, they go to "overtime." "Overtime" lasts until either the team that is ahead overall wins a game, or the losing team ties the overall score. For example, if a losing team is down 20 - 16 entering OT, the losing team has to win 4 straight games. If the losing team were to tie the overall score, the match then proceeds to the "SuperTieBreaker!" The supertiebreaker is one traditional tiebreaker, however it's just first to get 7 points (and not first to win by two). If you managed to make it through this explanation, you may also think that some of the awesomeness/insanity of the scoring system is reminiscent of the movie Baseketball's triple-elimination playoff system. For the record, I'm in favor of MLB moving to an 82-game season followed by a triple-elimination playoff, but I digress.

The match I saw was between the 1st place Washington Kastles (6-0) and the New York team (5-1). McEnroe was surprisingly awesome during the match. His serve still had some pace and was booming in fact. In addition, his net play was fantastic and McEnroe was still able to hit it back. The overall match got a little crazy at the end, as it ended with men's doubles. New York actually was losing overall entering the last event (men's doubles), but took a big lead in the last set such that they had a couple of match points. Washington fended off the match points and the way the score ended, the overall score was 19 all, meaning that we skipped overtime (since the overall score was tied), and went straight to "Supertiebreaker!" All I have to say is that it was a dream come true. The Supertiebreaker ended up being tied at 6-6, meaning that both teams had match point at the end! Washington ended up winning, pleasing the home crowd. I'm okay with that system of not having a win-by-two, only because it's shorter in terms of time and made for quite a lot of drama.

The memorable moments of the match were:
1) the supertiebreaker getting tied at 6-6, resulting in BOTH teams getting a match point!
2) McEnroe taking off his shirt and revealing he is indeed a bad-ass as he has two tattoos (which I found surprising)
3) Hingis' complete control of most points... and screwing up a bunch of game-points
4) A "Peanut Butter Jelly time" dance-off between the MC and a young girl. Here's one video of that if you don't know what I'm talking about (note: Family guy has blocked any decent quality videos of them doing it, but here's one low quality one of Brian doing it)
5) Tennis cheerleaders! & tennis cheerleaders almost getting hit by random serves
6) Awesome dance music in between points and obnoxious Austin Powers, "Yeah, baby!" sound bites, followed by the umpire saying in a hushed tone, "Quiet Please."
7) Washington coach Murphy Jensen throwing his towel on the court in the middle of a point to challenge a call, resulting in McEnroe yelling at him, "You can't do that in the middle of the point!"
8) Allowing coaches/teammates to talk to players in the middle of the game to adjust strategies (which is not allowed normally in tennis)

NBA Draft 2011: On the Verge of a Lockout

2011-06-25T07:37:00.002-05:00

NBA Draft recap:

Winners
Boston Celtics - I like how they took both of Purdue's best players (JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore). Granted, neither of these players are going to really break into the rotation for Boston because Johnson is just not big enough to do much on the next level. Moore has more of a chance to contribute).

Washington Wizards - Got Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton, Shelvin Mack
Vesely is highly ranked, Chris Singleton is a rugged, awesome wing defender, and Shelvin Mack is a fantastic PG on the little team that could (Butler). I just love this draft!

Losers
Charlotte Bobcats - Fisrt, they traded one bad contract of a good player (S. Jackson) for a bad contract of a worse player (Maggette). Then by the end of the night they got a long-term project in B. Biyombo, who is a PF. They also got Kemba Walker to be the PG rotation with DJ Augustin. However, Kemba is more of a SG in a PG body, so the backcourt is kind of screwy. It sucks having an owner with no money, I think that's the bottom line.

Losers-
Sacramento Kings - You got rid of Beno Udrih for Jimmer Fredette. Tsk tsk tsk. They did get Tyler Honeycutt from UCLA who I like. I don't like Jimmer though. He doesn't like me either.

Loser selection -
Minnesota chose a guy in the 2nd round and they thought he was 21. He's actually 26. This is a problem because European players become undrafted free agents if they reach the age of 22... Minnesota's GM David Kahn always finds new ways to get in the news!

Unclear
Cleveland - Yes, Kyrie Irving is the choice at #1 and that's good. However, I'm not exactly enthralled about the selection of PF Tristan Thompson at #4. The Cavs apparently were scared off from J. Valanciunas, a bona fide center who won't be getting out of his European contract for a season or two. Personally, I'd rather the Cavs have done that because it sounds like J. Valanciunas had a higher upside, and its not like the Cavs are trying to win next year. The one possibility for hope is that PF T. Thompson is very athletic though offensively challenged outside of dunking. Cavs are probably trading either Hickson or Varejao I'm guessing. Jamison is worthless (but may become worthwhile once the season starts since he's a $15 million expiring contract)

Who doesn't love a good Ron Artest post

2011-06-24T12:02:00.005-05:00

What more can you say? I'd make a few jokes, but this speaks for itself.

http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/news/story?id=6698183

NBA Finals 2011: The Aftermath

2011-06-13T19:41:00.004-05:00

Normally, I wouldn't have much to say after an NBA Championship, but I can't resist bringing up a few interesting points.

1) Dallas Coaching Staff Includes a Stat Geek

I can't believe I didn't know this, but ESPN led me to discover that one of the members of their coaching staff is the founder of 82games.com, Roland Beech. This is his 2nd season on Dallas. Officially, Roland Beech is listed as the "director of basketball analytics." 82games.com is the first basketball website that I became aware of, maybe 5 years ago, that had "advanced" stats or non-traditional stats. Beginning with plus/minus, moving to efficiency, and even getting into win-shares, the advanced stats do a lot more to signify and explain in numbers what a player's impact is on the game (aside from just his shooting percentage). I wasn't sure how involved Beech is with the team, but apparently, according to ESPN's TrueHoop, Beech is involved in all film sessions and practices. This is a stunning and welcome development in my opinion. The fact that Dallas won an NBA championship with such a person involved in brain trust will probably cause similar positions to become available on other teams (outside of Houston, which is widely known to hire a number of statisticians).

2) Rick Carlyle Dominated The Playoffs and the Zone Defense is a Big Reason

I can't say enough about how great a job Rick Carlyle did this postseason. I really enjoyed watching his Indiana teams pre-Artest brawl (with Artest, J. O'Neal, S. Jackson). After the brawl, the Indiana team ended up getting rid of assets (Artest, S. Jackson) for nothing, and everything fell apart and Carlyle got fire eventually... but I always thought it wasn't exactly his fault and with a talented team he would be successful again. Carlyle is in the minority in the NBA in that he will employ zone defenses at times throughout the regular season and even in the playoffs. I think the different looks he provided with his zone really threw off the rhythm that LeBron and Wade had in this playoffs. Of course, it does help that he has the right personnel to do the system (relatively mobile big men, and a great defensive center tandem in Chandler and Haywood). However, I am excited for other teams to start copying Dallas to some degree and try to employ their own zone defenses. This championship represents a real positive for the league in that regard I believe. It's interesting in that zone defenses became legal in 2001-2002... but it took this long for a team to win a championship and be praised for its zone defense.
3) LeBron Needs a Sports Psychologist

I'm not going to delve too far into the thicket of LeBron talking points (because there are many, and there are many opinions). I really rooted against him this year but mainly because I did not want the trio to just believe that the 3 of them alone with a bunch of spare parts could win a championship immediately. I don't intend on rooting against LeBron again like I did this year (though I won't root for him). I think the adversity will be good for LeBron especially and their championship day is inevitable... but they still need another capable guard and big man (plus LeBron probably needs to see a sports psychologist after this series). If you want to read a great little article on LeBron, I really like Rosenberg's on Sports Illustrated, as he hopes LeBron learns humility.

As good as its gonna get

2011-06-10T10:42:00.004-05:00

This is about as happy Cleveland fans can be right now. Might as well live vicariously through another team by hating Lebron.

This Week in Random Lists: Top 10 Greatest Cereals

2011-06-07T07:32:00.003-05:00

Top 10 All Time Cereals as decided by me, really early in the morning and therefore have no basis in reality . This list is based on how awesome the cereal is with reasons provided

10 Raisin Bran
For post Passover
9. Apple Cinnamon Cheerios
Honey Nut Cheerios comely but not pretty sister

8. Frosted Mini-Wheats
Health meets sugar. Also has some heft

7. Crispix
Best snacking cereal. Basis for party snacks.

6. Trix
Best fruity cereal. Also comes with drug addicted rabbit

5. Frosted Flakes
Best sugared cereal although flakes do get soggy too quickly

4. Honey Nut Cheerios
Childhood memories. Babies love them. Quality mascot.

3. Rice Krispies
Best cereal for creating a marshmallow infused desert.

2. Lucky Charms
Best cereal that comes with marshmallows already in them.

1. Cinnamon Toast Crunch
Best cereal based on taste, utility, and staying power.

Monday Questions

2011-06-06T08:27:00.002-05:00

As part of a vain attempt to get back to writing about sports despite a pretty slow pace of things so here's the attempt/

1. MLB Draft

The MLB Draft has long lagged the hype and coverage of the NBA Draft or NFL Draft although that seems to be changing as of late - This year I think the interesting question surrounds Arizona - who is the first team to have 2 picks in the top 7. Obviously that's not enough to turn around a franchise but it does seem a huge opportunity.

2. BoSox Rebound
It seems like only a few months ago that the Red Sox were flailing about in putridity. However they have rebounded handily, sweeping the Rays , and now stand only one game back from the Yanks. It will be interesting to see how active they are in the trade market given their off-season acquisitions.

3. NBA Draft
Speaking of top picks, all eyes should be on the Cavs with their # 1 and #4 picks. However the #4 pick is really dependent on the crazy machinations of Kahn and Minnesota. What will they do? Make a pick? Fling feces? Who knows...

Mike Brown, Clueless

2011-06-01T07:49:00.000-05:00

Ignoring for a moment his reputation for being clueless as an offensive head coach, it’s new Lakers head coach Mike Brown’s staggering lack of understanding of PR that makes me believe he’s destined to fail in Los Angeles.

See the excerpt below, with italics for emphasis:

“We’re not going to run the triangle offense, but we will have bits and pieces of it that will be incorporated,” said Brown, adding that his offense will be tailored to 7-footers Bynum and Gasol, similar to what was run for big men Tim Duncan and David Robinson during his time as an assistant in San Antonio.

Brown was on the Spurs’ staff when they won the 2003 NBA title.

Brown ticked off his top three essentials on both offense and defense.

“If they don’t buy in right away, they will,” he said. “If they don’t, there’s going to be a problem because I’m going to hold people accountable.”

Really, Mike? You’re going to publically announce that you’ll run the offense through a duo that includes the oft-injured Bynum and the unmotivated Gasol? When you have one of the ten best players in NBA history on your roster? When that player – Kobe Bryant – is the key to whether you keep your job or not?

I get not kowtowing to a prickly, aging superstar and I get that you want to come in with the respect of your players – hence the line about accountability and everyone buying in – but you catch many more flies with honey than with vinegar and if there’s one thing we know about NBA superstars it’s that they don’t respond well to veiled threats, especially not from guys with no credibility in the league. Phil Jackson could be a smug bastard and take shots at his players through the media because he had 11 rings. Mike Brown is a nobody in basketball by comparison.

Mike, baby, learn your place. You were hired to be the coach but if you don’t know that Kobe calls the shots, you’re hopeless.

7th Annual NBA Finals Preview

2011-05-30T20:18:00.007-05:00

Just as a recap, in 2005, my NBA Finals Preview used Star Wars quotes. In 2006, I used Indiana Jones quotes. In 2007, I used Back to the Future quotes. In 2008, I used Aliens vs. Predators quotes from both AVP1 and AVP2 (because I hated both teams and because there were hardly enough quotes from any AVP movie worthy of a blog entry.) In 2009, I used quotes from Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story because I believed the Magic would topple the Lakers (though I was wrong as usual)... Without further adieu, it is time to analyze the classic NBA finals matchup that is before us. In 2010, I used quotes from Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, mainly because I was sour that the Cavs didn't make the finals.

For the record, I have only been right in 2005 (Spurs) and 2007 (Spurs). This is pretty awful how wrong I am about the NBA Finals. I keep picking with my heart... 2006 (Mavs over Heat because I thought the Heat were too old), 2008 (Lakers over Celtics because I hated the acquisition of the big 3), 2009 (I believed in Dwight Howard too much), 2010 (I thought Bynum was injured).

This year, I really just need to laugh away the pain of possibly seeing LeBron and the Miami Heat win a championship in their 1st season without any suitable big men presence, so this year's movie choice? The Naked Gun! (Side note, I believe the Miami Heat would have had a lot more trouble with Orlando, Memphis, or the Lakers and their respective big men. Miami didn't have to play any of them due to the way the bracket shaped up.) Okay, enough about that, let's get to it!

Frank: Jane, since I've met you, I've noticed things that I never knew were there before... birds singing, dew glistening on a newly formed leaf, stoplights.

This goes out to Joel Anthony. I often make fun of the Heat center, but he actually is better at blocking shots and protecting the rim than I realized. Granted, I still think Tyson Chandler will outrebound him to no end, as Chandler had 17 rebounds in the 1st game between Miami and Dallas during the season (against 6 for Z and Anthony) and he then had 10 rebounds (against 10) in the rematch. Dallas won both games during the season... but Dallas also had Caron Butler in both games.

Frank: Interesting... almost as interesting as the photographs I saw today.
Jane: I was young! I needed the work!

This one goes out to Mike Bibby. He originally played for a crappy Grizzlies team, but he needed the money.

Frank: It's fourth and fifteen and you're looking at a full-court press.

This one goes to LeBron... because he usually does run into the paint with the velocity and power of a fullback hitting the hole.

Ed: Doctors say that Nordberg has a 50/50 chance of living, though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

I think this is the odds of this NBA Finals working out for the Mavs... there is rationally a 50-50 chance of Dallas winning, but Dallas is probably only going to be picked by 10% of the public to win the series!

Frank: It's a topsy-turvy world, and maybe the problems of two people don't amount to a hill of beans. But this is our hill. And these are our beans!

Dallas's biggest problem is that they probably are at a lack of athleticism on the wings when dealing with LeBron and Wade. However, Dallas likes to play zone (unlike many other teams). In fact, according to Sports Illustrated, LeBron and Wade shot only 3 for 17 against Dallas' zone during the season! Playing more zone might be the one ace up Dallas' sleeve that could turn this series... but I'm still doubtful.

The one other area that Dallas could end up winning is with Dirk. Who is guarding Dirk? Haslem did a great job on Dirk in 2006, as reported by SI and others, but Bosh got more of the assignment during the season. If Dirk can be very efficient in enough games, he could try to tilt the series in Dallas' favor... but I'm still doubtful.

Perhaps the other biggest problem for Dallas is that they have gotten great offensive production out of JJ Barea. However, if he's on the floor, he would have to be guarding Bibby/Chalmers. The problem is that the Heat have been moving more and more to a 4th-quarter lineup of Bosh-LeBron-Haslem-M. Miller-Wade. In that situation, Barea would be forced to give up many inches to M. Miller? Or to be stuck on Wade? These don't seem like good choices. Against Ok City, it seemed to not be as bad because Westbrook wasn't nearly as efficient as Wade.

Frank: Wilma, I promise you; whatever scum did this, not one man on this force will rest one minute until he's behind bars. Now, let's grab a bite to eat.

This one goes out to Dirk and Terry. They are the only ones left who have dealt with the nightmare of being up 2-0 in the NBA Finals against Miami and being up double digits in the fourth in game 3... only to blow game 3 and the entire series. It's up to them to not rest and to seize this improbable second chance at a championship!
Unfortunately, I don't think it's going to happen. The NBA is probably going to let the refs call a loose game where D. Wade and LeBron get away with more than they should and the Heat will probably roll to victory in this series because the Mavs have to rely on DeShawn Stevenson and old-man Shawn Marion to guard Wade and LeBron respectively. I don't think Dirk's history with Haslem is encouraging either. Miami Heat in 6.

NBA Conference Finals and other tidings 2011

2011-05-22T18:42:00.003-05:00

It's been a while since I've written... so let's get to some NBA stuff!

Western Conference: Grizzlies run out of gas; Ok City in same position now?
The Grizzlies fell just short of knocking out Ok City after Durant literally carried Ok City in the crucial game 7 last week. The Thunder-Mavs conference finals has been interesting thus far, with Dallas leading 2-1. However, much has been made of Westbrook's meltdown then getting benched in game 2 for the 4th quarter, while OkCity ended up winning.

Westbrook vs. Maynor - pick your poison/positive trait?
While Westbrook's backup, Eric Maynor, played very well in the 4th quarter of game 2 (0 turnovers), he interestingly also had only 1 assist in his 19 minutes. In game 3, everything fell apart for OkCity, and Westbrook got in early foul trouble... and Maynor came in and for 6 minutes, OkCity went -11, and he had 0 assists and 1 turnover.

This led me to do some research...is Maynor more of a shooting guard and thus doesn't commit turnovers or assists, which could be destructive to the offense since no one is generating assists? Of course, as has been widely documented, Westbrook is maddeningly inconsistent. The answer: it appears that the coach is choosing between a wildly inconsistent player (who still generates offense), or Maynor (who takes less risk, but where the offense can get very stagnant, since he's not as adept at generating assists and getting easy shots for his teammates).

This conclusion is based on looking at the game logs. If you look at Maynor's game log, you will see that Maynor has two outlier games - one against Memphis when he played 22 minutes because OkCity beat them by 27 points, so Maynor racked up 9 assists in 23 minutes. The other was during a 17 point victory against Denver, when he racked up 5 assists in 15 minutes. Thus, he only has 19 assists in about 152 minutes, or just 4.5 assists per 36 minutes (and 2.8 turnovers per 36 minutes). In contrast, Westbrook has about 6.3 assists per 36 minutes (and 4.6 turnovers per 36 minutes). Interestingly, Westbrook gets you an extra 1.8 assists... and also gives up an extra 1.8 turnovers thus far. I think that the OkCity coach has to continue to pull Westbrook if he has a tantrum of course, but for OkCity to succeed and to generate some offence, it's more important that he's out there using his speed to help create and run the offense.

Back to the series at hand though... it looks like Dallas will end up winning... probably because Ok City has such trouble guarding Dirk.

Out in the Eastern Conference, we will see what happens tonight with the Bulls and the Heat... I hope the Bulls can get their swagger back, punish the Heat on the inside and the glass, and get another victory like they did in Game 1.

To the Late Great Macho Man

2011-05-21T10:33:00.000-05:00

RIP Randy Macho Man Savage

Baseball Predictions: Nearing 40 games

2011-05-08T10:47:00.003-05:00

As we near the magical 40 game mark (I'm not sure what makes it magical but hey why not) it probably is time to take stock to see what is sustainable and what is not. The past few years first place in early May is no guarantee of future success as on average about only half of the teams in first place at this time of year finish the year in first place. So which teams are most likely to fall off the map?

Baseball prospectus currently guesses at LA Angels and Colorado. I have no reason to disagree with the mighty BP but I would also add Cleveland to the mix. Cleveland is outperforming everyone's expectations. Why I'm starting to hesitate to immediately dismiss the North Coast revival is who in the AL Central is going to step up to catch the Tribe? Detroit's hitting and monetary constraints on Minnesota/Chicago make each passing day more likely that there's something sustainable for Acta's crew.

The one interesting race to watch might be Philly v. Atlanta. Pythag (run differential) has Atlanta and Philly neck and neck although it's hard to imagine Philly faltering with it's pitching staff. Nonetheless something to keep an eye on......

What's others predictions and thoughts?

2011 Memphis Grizzlies - Keys to Success

2011-05-02T21:46:00.004-05:00

The 8-seeded Memphis Grizzlies have been shocking the world, with their 6-game defeat of top-seeded San Antonio and already taking a 1 game lead against Oklahoma City. There are some very interesting things to note in this team's rise to shocking heights:

1) The Grizzlies are - WITHOUT Rudy Gay

This is the most important development with the team in the 2nd half. On February 15, Rudy Gay got injured and ended up having to miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. The Grizzlies won that game (against the 76ers) and ended the season 15-8 without Rudy Gay. This run included victories over San Antonio (twice), Boston, Ok City, Dallas, so it wasn't like they were just beating bad teams. The main reason the team is better without Rudy Gay is...

2) Tony Allen is playing more minutes

Tony Allen is averaging 13.3 ppg, 3.9 rebs, 2.2 assists, and 1.96 steals per game, in 29 minutes per game since February 15th (when Rudy Gay got injured). (Before-hand, he only played 17 minutes per game) Perhaps more telling is this though... Rudy Gay is averaging 0.123 win-share per 48 minutes and Tony Allen is at 0.152 Win-share per 48 minutes (which is at an All-Star Level, and I can't imagine what the win-share would be for just the latter part of the season, I just can't sort the data in that way). Despite what I originally exepected, Shane Battier is playing just 24 minutes per game on Memphis since playing on Feb. 26th, and only an average 0.097 win-share per 48 minutes.

Basically, Tony Allen is playing at an All-Star level if not beyond, because defensively, he has blossomed into one of the best defenders in the league. The best part was during Game 4 of the Spurs series with the game still close in the 3rd quarter, and there literally were 3 possessions in a row where Tony Allen either caused a steal, or a deflection that led to a steal. The most amazing part of his swarming defense was when Tim Duncan got the ball at the top of the paint, he faked left, and then immediately passed right, but Tony Allen KNEW THE PLAY, and ran at full speed to the location of where the pass was going to be, resulting in a 3-on-1 dunk. Tony Allen had no problems creating havoc for Ginobili, and in the Ok City game, he presumably helped out on Westbrook (9 of 23) and certainly on James Harden (2 of 5).

Tony Allen, as it turned out, may have been the most important free agent acquisition of 2010 (from Boston), outside of Miami and Boozer on Chicago.

3) Zach Randolph is... amazing after leaving New York and after 2009.

Zach Randolph's NBA career is mystifying. It started out with him hardly playing on Portland, then putting up huge numbers on a bad team, then becoming a character/problem issue, getting traded to the Knicks and doing absolutely nothing, getting traded to the Clippers and doing absolutely nothing, then the Grizzlies deciding to give him a chance, and Randolph suddenly becoming... an NBA All-Star?!?

His win-share /48 this season is a career-high 0.185, and in the playoffs is a preposterous 0.255. Zach Randolph used to never help you win... and now he's all about it!

I can't explain the sudden change the last two years, but it's funny because all I can think back to is the 2007 NBA draft, when NY traded for Zach Randolph and I didn't think too much of it because of Zach Randolph's negative influence. MJ thought it was a great trade because of Zach Randolph... as it turns out we were both right to some degree... it's just that Zach Randolph didn't prove to be a game-changer until he left NY, and I was right in that he had behavior problems then (just not forever).

I also have to apologize to the Memphis GM. I wrote a scathing piece when he acquired Zach Randolph's massive contract in 2009 (in exchange for a smaller, shorter expiring contract of Quentin Richardson). I said Memphis fans would throw up in their mouths... but I was really wrong. I'm not sure who's advising Zach Randolph or what has finally motivated him, but the Grizzlies are on a great ride, and it is due in large part to the acquisition of Randolph!

4) Marc Gasol is one of the best centers

I already knew this, but most of the league didn't. I think most of the league underestimated the amount of production Gasol and Randolph can do when it's the postseason and they play monster minutes. If OK City doesn't get Kendrick Perkins healthy soon, they too will be in serious danger against the Grizzlies.

NFL Draft Recap

2011-05-01T14:50:00.003-05:00

The NFL draft, the NFL activity for awhile, has come and gone. Here are my 5 thoughts on the matter

1. This is an even harder draft to judge the normal given the inability to know how free agency will affect teams. What holes will team have due to free agency and which holes will be filled by free agency? Without knowing it's particularly hard to say which team is well positioned for next year.

2. One of the more baffling picks was the Ryan Mallet to New England. Yes there was value there but given Brady's new contract...what's the object of this selection outside of getting a good player.

3. I have to give a tip of the cap to the Browns' GM Tom Heckert for picking up the draft picks they did from Atlanta. Analysts that like quality over quantity gave Atlanta high marks but even Julio Jones turns into a star he isn't going to improve a defense that was slashed and burned by the Packers last year. I think it's a risky at best and stupid at worst move by the Falcons.

4. I honestly think none of the QBs selected in the first round will amount to anything. All seem to have serious shortcomings but it does go to show teams' desperations that they would throw huge amounts of money and high picks at such questionable talents.

5. I was impressed by both New Orleans and the Green Bay's picks. Solid players, hit needs, didn't give up picks for next year. Well done....

Your thoughts?

All the King's Horses and All the King's Men...

2011-04-26T14:34:00.002-05:00

...couldn't sew that filthy sweatervest back together again.

If Jimbo is gone...what are you going to do, F*ckeyes, when Hokeamania runs wild on you?!?!

Cue the entrance music, baby!

Mock Draft 2011: It's mocktastic

2011-04-25T23:00:00.002-05:00

1. CAR - DT Marcell Dareus - Alabama - I'm going with an upset here... because I don't believe in Cam Newton. #1 pick money should be on more of a sure thing. I'm still in shock and awe over Newton's meteoric rise to the top. Honestly, I feel like he's more unpolished and represents more risk than a lot of other players. He only played one year and his mechanics are just strange. I think the Panthers aren't giving up yet on Clausen. Also, Dareus seems less risky just because of his size and speed, and since he's not a QB, it's not like he has to learn how to read a defense and how to throw different types of balls (like Newton does).

2. Denver - LB Von Miller, Texas A&M - Isn't this guy a professional skier? Oh wait, that's Lindsey Vonn. But seriously, I guess Denver just takes the best available pick. They will be very upset if Dareus is taken #1, since they have a need for Defensive linemen.

3. Buffalo - QB Cam Newton - The Bill suddenly find themselves being able to take Cam Newton, and gladly take the high-risk high-reward gamble, but at #3, not at #1.

4. Cincy - WR AJ Green, Georgia - The Bungles get a WR, as TO is leaving and Ocho Cinco is old. Seems pretty easy. Granted, the Bengals usually find a way to get the most messed up person in the draft and shocking everyone. So, if they shock everyone, I think it would be to grab the next QB, Blaine Gabbert out of Missouri.

5. Arizona - CB Patrick Peterson, LSU - This guy is supposed to be a stud, an immediate starter. The Cardinals just do it.

6. Tennessee (trade with Cleveland) - QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri - The Titans outbid Washington, San Fran, and Minnesota to get Blaine Gabbert...

7. San Fran -CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska - He actually is a Prince. Or at least that's what this article claims - that he is the "first son of a chief."

8. Cleveland - DE Robert Quinn, UNC - The Browns have a much bigger need in the front 7 than they do at WR. Oh wait, they are all needs in Cleveland! However, I think finding some big bodies up front will be more important to them at this point and they will find offensive weapons later on (I hope?).

9. Dallas - T Tyron Smith, USC -The Cowboys continually work on their offense.

10. Washington - DT Nick Fairley, Auburn - Of course the guy with more character issues goes to Washington, because that's where questionable people would get picked!

11. Houston - DE Da'quan Bowers, Clemson - There are questions about his knee, which have made his draft status fall, but I think Houston will realize that this is a great value at this pick and gladly take him (and they wait until later to grab a QB).

12. Minnesota -QB Jake Locker, Washington - Sometimes... need trumps everything else. The Vikings QB situation has been volatile, because they had the man-who-should-not-be-named-who-"allegedly"-sends-pictures-of-his-genatalia-via-his-cell-phone, so the Vikings reach way down, and grab Locker.

13. Detroit -WR Julio Jones, Alabama - To honor the long-standing tradition, Detroit decides to kick it old school and draft another WR in the 1st round! No, I'm just kidding. The Lions take Anthony Coastonzo, OT Boston College. That way we can make Costanzo! jokes all season long when he screws up or pretends to sleep underneath his desk during a film session.

14. St. Louis - WR Julio Jones, Alabama - The Rams made do last year on 4th and 5th string WRs, but I'm sure they'd rather prefer to get some more talent around Sam Bradford. Interestingly, NFL.com says the Rams are interested in trading up for Julio Jones, but draftcountdown.com says that the Rams hate Julio Jones, his workout, and his entire family. I have no idea what the truth is. As the X-files says, "trust no one."

15. Miami - DE Aldon Smith, Missouri - This guy is supposedly shooting up the board!

16. Jacksonville -DE Cameron Jordan, California - I don't know why, but it sounds like this guy belongs in some kind of boy band.

17. New England - DE JJ Watt, Wisconsin - The Patriots just beef up the line... or they trade the pick away as they typically do to gather more 3rd rounders.

Other interesting picks...

28. New England - RB Mark Ingram, Alabama - The Pats stop the free-fall, and grab the Heisman winner.
2nd round, Carolina- QB Dalton, TCU - He has red hair. I can't think of any other red-headed QBs.
2nd round, Cincy - QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas - He is immobile. I think it's really difficult to succeed in the NFL as a QB without some marginal amount of mobility.
2nd round, Washington - QB Colin Kaepernick, Nevada - I don't know who he is, but the Redskins need a QB, and this guy is 6'5", and rated right behind Dalton, so I guess it's this guy!
2nd round, San Francisco - QB Christian Ponder, Florida St - I guess it's the best available QB????

Sunday Thoughts: Readying for the Draft

2011-04-24T05:43:00.003-05:00

Well it's been awhile since I've wrote anything but I shall endeavor to get back to the routine. damn you working world.....So without further ado....

NFL Draft
I don't remember a draft as uncertain as this one. Is anyone really certain about who anyone is taking? Partially this a function that nearly all of the players have serious question marks. I couldn't say if this is a deep draft but it certainly seems to be one lacking bonafide clear cut stars at the top. This isn't to say some boom/bust picks will turn out to be booms, but a priori.... very unclear..

MLB
Speaking of unprecedented.....um what the hell is going on with the Dodgers? I'm hoping that MLB is filming a faux documentary and just needed extra tension because otherwise it seems like a debacle of the highest order in one of baseball's more precious markets. How does this turn out? No seriously, I'm asking.....no clue

Big 10 Football
I'm still trying to avoid mocking the leaders and legends nomenclature and it's going to be especially hard given the Big 10 having so many questions at QB. Despite Spring games coming and going all of the major programs in the Big 10 have uncertainty at football's most important spot. This does not portend well for the Big 10 this season.....

Gutsy's Biased 2011 NBA Playoff Preview

2011-04-14T21:09:00.002-05:00

The time has come... for the NBA Playoffs! There's not much excitement (on paper anyways) in the 1st round outside of a couple of Western Conference series. So... let's start out there:

Western Conference
1-Spurs vs. 8-Memphis - Yawn. Spurs will win. However, the Grizzlies will win their first playoff game in franchise history. Don't ask me how they got swept every other time.
Pick: Spurs in 5 (but huge Memphis moral victory)

4-Ok City vs. 5-Denver - This is the most exciting first round matchup in the entire playoffs. Ok City's record since acquiring Kendrick Perkins: 19-6. Denver's record since dumping Carmelo and picking up Felton, Galinari, Chandler, and that Center, T. Mozgov: 17-7. These have been the two hottest teams in the league the 2nd half. The teams most likely to spring a major upset and make noise in the playoffs... and unfortunately playing each other. The best part about Perkins for Ok City? Not only do they get a bona fide center, they get to slide Serge Ibaka to PF (a more natural fit). The best part about Denver's trade? They get insane, active minutes from super fast PGs (Felton and Ty Lawson, though Lawson just got injured in the season finale), and they upgraded depth at SG (Chandler) and now can run the entire damn game. Look, this should be a very fun series to watch no matter what happens, but I will just assume Kevin Durant begins his ascent to super-duper-stardom and wins this series.
Pick: Ok City in 6

3-Dallas vs. 6-Portland - A lot of analysts believe Dallas is ripe for another 1st-round letdown. I don't see it. Brandon Roy's knees still aren't great. Portland did get Gerald Wallace at the deadline, and he has been playing out of his mind, but Dallas has to seize the moment while they still have Tyson Chandler and B. Haywood (because Chandler's a free agent after the season). This series isn't as interesting as Denver-Ok City, but could prove to just be another sad moment for Dallas fans.
Pick: Dallas in 6

2-Lakers vs. 7-Hornets - The Hornets lost PF D. West to injury. They have no chance, even with PG Chris Paul.
Pick: Lakers in 5

Eastern Conference
1-Chicago vs. 8-Pacers - Pacers have no shot.
Pick: Bulls in 4

4-Magic vs 5-Hawks- The Hawks have been awful, the Magic have been inconsistent. Yuck. Magic should still pull this out, if for no other reason than because the Hawks still have no one who can guard Dwight Howard
Pick: Magic in 6

3-Bos vs. 6-Knicks - The Knicks don't play any defense and have holes all over the place after giving up most of their regulars to get Carmelo this season. Rondo will run circles around Billups.
Pick: Bos in 5

2-Miami vs. 7-76ers - The 76ers are certainly the biggest surprise for playoff teams this year. They GAVE UP their starting center (Dalembert) for nothing... and because of a healthy season of Brand, and better play from just about everyone else, here they are in the playoffs. The 76ers have Igoudala and T. Young to guard LeBron (which is better than most teams). Ah.. who am I kidding.
Pick: Miami in 5

I have to keep predicting... there's no way around it (especially this year, when the 1st round matchups are so uninteresting). It's tradition for me to pick... and pick incorrectly!

2nd round
1-Spurs vs. 4-Thundercats - I don't know what to make of the Spurs. They started out hotter than any NBA team in history... rested a lot of people, stumbled around a bit. I just honestly don't understand how they can guard Durant and Westbrook in the playoffs. In a bit of irony, the last game the Thunder played with Jeff Green was against the Spurs (which the Spurs won). The Spurs have yet to play the Thunder with Kendrick Perkins... and I think that could make a huge difference for them.
Pick: Thunder in 7

3-Mavs vs. 2-Lakers - The Lakers will beat whoever survives the Mavs-Blazers
Pick: Lakers in 5

1-Bulls vs. 4-Magic - This is a very important series... I think the Bulls need to win because they have enough bigs to dominate the Heat. Seriously though, it should be a great series and anything can happen. Howard should be able to do whatever he wants, and Derrick Rose will most likely be able to do whatever he wants. The Magic have just looked so out-of-sync since making all the acquisitions, and I just can't trust them this year.
Pick: Bulls in 6

2-Heat vs. 3-Celtics - It's so damn annoying that the Celtics don't have any healthy centers (Shaq injured, Kendrick traded, old men J. O'Neal and N. Krstic are all that's left. The Heat's biggest weakness, as shown again and again this season, is the fact that Chris Bosh is a terrible defender, and the center position is a huge weakness. Can KG, Big Baby, and whoever is healthy enough to play center cause enough trouble for the Heat??? Not the way the Celtics have looked of late. They really need someone to get healthy fast at center.
Pick: Heat in 6

Conference Finals
1-Bulls vs. 2-Heat - The Bulls should be able to smash the Heat. Between Noah and Boozer (and Asik and K. Thomas off the bench), the Bulls will own the glass, control the paint, and vanquish my personal nightmare of the Heat winning the NBA crown.
Pick: Bulls in 7

4-Thundercats vs. 2-Lakers - Let's read the latest on A. Bynum: Bone bruise in his knee (where else?) No one has any idea what kind of shape he'll be in (or what kind of shape he'll be in a month from now during the heart of the playoffs). The Lakers success depends on him, but I tend to think the Lakers will make this last run before yielding (plus, Ok City in the finals would be my emotional side going too far. They could just as easily lose to Denver in the 1st round!)
Pick: Lakers in 6

NBA Finals
1-Bulls over 1-Lakers. I'm just picking the Bulls... Bynum or not. The Bulls will win because the Lakers certainly don't have anyone to guard D. Rose.
Pick: Bulls in 7

Week in Review: April

2011-04-10T20:06:00.003-05:00

Well it's been awhile since I wrote anything but here's a few thoughts on the week that ways

Master's
Yes Schwartzel is the newest Master champion but I think a lot of the story is Rory Mcilroy's absolute collapse. A plus 8 after a 4 hole lead? Triple bogeys? Wow. Can he recover? I don't know. But this is a pretty historic collapse.

MLB
It's a very long season so anything that happens April will soon be forgotten by August....However Boston's slow start seems important. Boston was expected to dominate after winning the off-season or whatever. But so far a very slow start.

Manny
Manny ended his career the only way it could have ...mindnumbling stupid....Manny, an idiot savant of hitting, left a wreckage of stupid moves. So I'd say it was a shame but it's not...just Manny exiting stage right as only he could....

NHL
Playoffs have started. Fill in any comments as you see fit...

NBA Notes 2010-2011: Surprises and Disappointments

2011-04-03T21:55:00.005-05:00

With the NCAA Tournament finished, it's time to turn attention to the NBA...

Let's first look at some individual surprise performances for the season:

Biggest Surprises
1) Derrick Rose, Chicago - The offseason workouts of him, Kevin Love, and Westbrook were not only legendary for being grueling... but proved to have instant results for all three! Derrick Rose (25.2 ppg, 7.9 assists, improved to 33% on 3-pointers (was averaging 24% previously)). Was pre-ranked at 42, currently ranked 9th).
2) Kevin Love, Minnesota - Pre-ranked 41, currently ranked 5th. 20.2 ppg, 15.2 rebs, 41% 3-point shooting (previously 33%). He put up huge numbers on a bad team. Granted, these weren't just big numbers, they were mind-blowing numbers! 15.2 rebs! Damn! I love the 3-point shot he's developed too. My guess is no other leading rebounder has made that many 3-pointers... or lost this many games.
3) Elton Brand, Philly - Pre-ranked 82, currently ranked 20th. 14.9 ppg, 8.4 rebs, 51% FG%, career-low 1.3 TOs, career-high 77% FT%. Amazing. I never thought Brand would return to do anything... and instead he's been very efficient in all aspects of his game in helping the 76ers make a surprising return to the playoffs.
4) Dorell Wright, Golden State - Pre-ranked 140, currently ranked 17th. 16.4 ppg (last year 7.1!), 5.3 rebs, 3.0 assists, 1.4 steals, 38.6% 3-pointers. I actually couldn't remember this guy. He was on the Heat last year, but his rights were renounced... he then signed with Golden State for $3.5 million. That is one of the steals of the off-season!
5) Al Jefferson, Utah - His team may have gone in the tank, but his numbers (19.9 ppg, 9.7 rebs, 1.9 blocks) still were better than expected (pre-ranked 25, currently 8th).

Biggest Disappointments
1) Joe Johnson, ATL - As almost expected, Joe Johnson signed his max-contract... and then promptly had large declines in his production this year. Pre-ranked 27, he is currently ranked 97. His numbers 18.5 ppg, which is his first non-20ppg season since 2005, 0.7 steals (lowest since his rookie year), and... a despicable 30.1% 3-point shooting percentage! Ouch.
2) Aaron Brooks, HOU/Phoenix - This just makes me sad. Just two years ago, he was creating havoc in the playoffs for the Rockets and almost helped them take down the Lakers. Now... he played himself out of the starting job and into a backup job on Phoenix. Pre-ranked 55, ranked 220 (based on his average stats). 11ppg, 3.8 assists, 30% 3-point land, 37% FG%. Last year, he was at 19.6 ppg, 5.3 assists, 39.8% 3-point land, 43% FG%. Damn. What a lousy year!
3) OJ Mayo, Memphis - Pre-ranked 70, ranked 154 now. Almost got traded at the deadline, but paperwork filed incorrectly. Not even joking. His scoring dipped from 17.5 ppg to 11.3 ppg, assists from 3.0 to 2.0, FG% from 45.8 to 41.3.
4) Corey Maggette, Milwaukee - Talk about a bad acquisition... his scoring has dipped from 19.8 to 12.5; rebs from 5.3 to 3.8; assists from 2.5 to 1.3; FG% from 51 to 45%. Minutes have decreased, but turnovers almost the same! Ouch. Pre-rank 93, now ranked 252.
5) Mo Williams, CLE/Clippers - It pains me to raise his name, but it's true. His production wasn't as good and then he got injured for most of the year (which severely impacted his shot %). Pre-raniked 43, now ranked 157. 14.1 ppg, 30.4% 3point% (career 38.5% shooter).

Tarrence Kinsey Award
Back in the 2006-2007 season, my fantasy basketball team was in trouble, and it was the end of the season. I ended up picking up a guy I never heard of but who had been playing well. His name? Tarence Kinsey from the Minnesota T-wolves. The 6'6" SG Kinsey ended up averaging 18.9 ppg, 4.1 rebs, and 2.23 steals per game between March 24th and April 18th of that season. This amazingly unexpected production powered my team to the finals of my fantasy basketball season. Thus, when any person I've never heard of before goes ballistic during the last month of the season, I decide to give them the "Tarence Kinsey award."

This year, the award goes to someone I've heard of... but many other people probably haven't heard of him... Congratulations to Kris Humphries!

From Feb. 26 to March 30, Kris Humphries, a PF on the NJ Nets, has been averaging 14.3 ppg, 14.6 rebs, and 1.7 blocks! Congratulations!

A Journalist Running for Fifa President

2011-04-01T22:27:00.002-05:00

For those who don't know, FIFA, the governing body of soccer, has elections to see who will be president. How does it work? Anyone in the world can be president... but one of the member countries have to PUBLICLY nominate you, then the same member countries (over 200 of them) choose the President by SECRET BALLOT.

Sports Illustrated writer Grant Wahl is not a fan of the lack of transparency... so he decided to make a run at getting nominated for FIFA President!

I highly recommend checking out his article here recounting what happened.

Some highlights:

-due to political pressure within FIFA, Chile decided it wouldn't even nominate a former soccer superstar from their own country
-Grant Wahl being told other countries would vote for him... but none could NOMINATE him for fear of the political reprecussions
-Grant Wahl running around the globe trying to convince one of the member countries to nominate him!

Fiesta Bowl Super Scandal

2011-03-29T19:37:00.003-05:00

Well if there was evidence for getting rid of (the/a) BCS bowl this political donation super scandal that goes to the CEO of the Fiesta Bowl would sure be evidence. Personally I think this is just evidence for why Arizona is an awful place but maybe I'm drawing the wrong lessons....

The Most Unlikely Final Four Ever

2011-03-28T21:23:00.003-05:00

It's one thing to have one party crasher at the Final Four... it's another to have two party crashers... and it's yet another to have two party crashers along with a 3-seed and a 4-seed!

My favorite things about this year's final four is not just that either VCU or Butler will be playing for the championship... it's that only 2 people out of over 6 million got all four right on ESPN.

Check out some of these other awesome stats:
Less than 7% of brackets actually had these 4 teams winning their first game!

In terms of handicapping the Final Four, I actually predicted the entire Elite Eight incorrectly, so I don't believe that my analysis means much. I tend to believe that VCU's magical 3-point shooting has to end because Butler plays better defense than anyone else. I also tend to believe that the evil Kentucky Wildcats will prevail against UConn and then win the championship because teams I dislike usually win. I actually am starting to believe that Butler has a decent chance to win the whole thing... without last year's NBA pick Gordon Hayward. I'm not a big Hayward fan (he doesn't translate well to the NBA), but last year on Butler, he was a defensive force and bailed them out offensively quite a few times with his rare combination of size and speed. If Butler wins it all this year?!? Coach Brad Stevens is coach of the universe... and the refs from the Pitt game should receive Christmas cards every year!

Tournament Openning Round Thoughts

2011-03-21T07:29:00.000-05:00

After 2 (well technically 3) rounds of tournament play we are left with 16 teams. Here are my deep (well not so deep) thoughts

1. To Call or Not Call - In the round of 32 there were a number of games were ref calls (Butler -Pitt) and non-calls (Arizona-Texas) shaped the outcomes. Personally I prefer the ref swallow his whistle under 5 seconds unless it's horribly obvious. The bigger issue I think is the inconsistency. Whatever the standard is, it should be communicated pretty clearly what the standard is....and stick with it.
2. Conferences - I find it fascinating the difference between conference pride and national fascination for college football and college basketball. Yes, there's a few notes and trash talk (you suck Big East) but it's nowhere near the level of solidarity or press fawning that bowl season has.

3. Favorites - I tend to avoid saying anyone is really a favorite as one bad game, one injury, one fluke and a school chances disappears. So how a team looks really is inconsequential..generally. tOSU wins were impressive but competition gets much tougher. Duke barely escaped the Wolverines but the only thing significant about that is Kyrie Irving doesn't exactly look himself...yet. Meanwhile KU kept rolling. Those seem to be the favorites but anything is possible.

4. Overall Quality - After all the complaints about the lack of quality teams I've generally been very happy with the tournament. Some very good teams, some fun upsets, and some great individual performances. Worrying that the tournament won't be great is much ado about nothing....

5. Wonderwoman (Adrian Palinki) will be starring on NBC this Fall....Great idea but it's on NBC so it'll fail. If only one could combine the tournament's awesomeness with wonderwoman... Come on CBS I'm looking to you...

Sweet 16 - It's been interesting... for the Big East

2011-03-20T10:50:00.005-05:00

The Big East had a rough weekend. It started with, "Oh, look at us! We got 11 bids! We are the best conference ever." It ended with "Ouch. We didn't do too well." 11 entered. 2 survived. Granted, the Big East does have a genuine beef in that 4 teams matched up in the 2nd round (i.e. Cincy vs. UConn and Syracuse vs. Marquette). Granted, Marquette was an 11-seed who wasn't expected to make the 2nd round. Nonetheless, even if those teams were separated into different spots, the Big East still had a disappointing weekend, mainly because 1-seed Pitt lost a nailbiter to 8-Butler, 2-seed Notre Dame got demolished by Florida State, and 4-seed Louisville lost to Morehead State in the 1st round. The best part about my bracket this weekend was my confidence in Notre Dame losing in the 2nd round... but I didn't get any credit for that because I had Texas A&M beating Notre Dame!

Anyways, there really has been a lot of carnage this weekend... but the most interesting thing about next weekend is certainly Ohio State vs. Kentucky and Duke vs. Arizona. All four are perennial powers... and all four have loads of NBA talent. After those two games, the more interesting thing will be who will come out of Pitt's region: Butler, Wisconsin, BYU, or Florida?

1-OSU vs. 4-Kentucky
11-Marquette vs. 2-UNC

1-Duke vs. 5-Arizona
3-UConn vs. 2-SD st

1-Kansas vs. 12-Richmond
11-VCU vs. 10-Florida State

8-Butler vs. 4-Wisconsin
3-BYU vs. 2-Florida

Submit Your Brackets

2011-03-15T06:00:00.003-05:00

Shannon Marie says "remember to submit your brackets". Unless you were assigned to a play in game , in which case you should have submitted your brackets last week.

The Idiocy of the Selection Committee

2011-03-14T09:53:00.002-05:00

Disclaimer: whereas 10 years ago I could name 2 or 3 starters on most every Tourney team, this year I can't even name one player on two of the #1 seeds.

But I can do math, and I'm not stupid - which apparently disqualifies me from being a member of the NCAA's Selection Committee. Explain this to me: why are the four play-in games for two #16 seeds, a #12, and an #11? What is the logic behind that?

As I see it, there's only two ways to handle a 68-team field: all of the play-in games must either be for #16 seeds, representing the 8 worst teams of the field, or for whatever seed number represents the 8 worst at-large entrants (i.e. the last 8 in). It would be most logical to have the 8 worst auto qualifiers - but I could understand the Committee not wanting to totally crap on those conferences by making them earn the right to get slaughtered by Duke, so I could understand having a play-in for the UABs and Clemsons of the world to fight it out for a #12 seed.

But what makes ZERO sense is to have the play-ins staggered as in this year's bracket. Why is it that SE #11 seed Gonzaga only has to win 6 times to win the title, but in the Southwest, USC or VCU must win a 7th game - and they're #11 seeds, too?!?! Consider that in '06, George Mason made it to the Final 4 as an #11...so we can't say "Oh, it doesn't matter, these teams will lose anyway." It does matter; these at-large teams and these #11/#12 seeds are fully capable of making a run into the Sweet 16 or farther. The inequity in allowing three #11 and #12 seeds a pass into the true first round, while forcing 4 other teams to play an extra game as the same seed number, is absolutely illogical and indefensible.

March Madness: First Thoughts

2011-03-13T18:47:00.003-05:00

First thoughts on March Madness....

1. East and West Picking Difficulties - For very different reasons the East and West regions should be very hard to pick. The East is my region of death...tough match-up after tough match-up. The West on the other hand, is Duke and big question marks...Yeesh no idea.

2. Star Power - There's always some player or players that emerge in the tournament. However usually they are semi-known going into the tournament. Star power is pretty dim. Sure there's some stars: Kembya, Nolan, Jared, and Jimmer...but relative to previous years it seems like the star power is a little low.

3. Tourney Snubs - No matter how much they expand the tournament there will always be snubs. So frankly it's a much ado about nothing. If push comes to shove I'd have yanked USC or VCU and put in Colorado but I can't get all worked up. Well maybe a little. You suck tourney selection committee!

Some Tourney Advice
4. Use Random Facts - Teams that were unranked but ended the season ranked in the top 10 are 0-41 in making the final four.

5. Use German Animals - Paul the October and Heidi the Cross Eyed Possum have proven that beyond a shadow of a doubt random German animals are good at picking things. Purchase one before your brackets are due.

6. Submit Your Bracket - Yes the annual Back Seat Driver brackets is out. Please submit your bracket. If any of your friends, significant others, children (Hitman we're looking at you) , pets (Laz looking at you), etc. want in - let me know and I will add them to the list.

March Madness 2011 - Instaneous Analysis

2011-03-13T17:27:00.000-05:00

In 2009, I crunched a lot of numbers before the Madness begins, pertaining to the performance of power-conference teams that win or are runner-ups in their conference tournaments.

Favorite team based on profiles -
In 2007, I started doing profiles of the top conferences before the tourney begins.

In 2007, I adopted Maryland as my favorite statistical profile... and they lost in the 2nd round.
In 2008, I adopted Notre Dame as my favorite statistical profile... and they lost in the 2nd round.
In 2009, I adopted BYU (lost in 1st round) and West Virginia (lost in 1st round).
In 2010, I adopted Baylor, and they did make the elite 8 (finally, did something right!)
This year? I'm adopting Washington and Belmont. Yes, Sports Illustrated already wrote two (yes, TWO!) articles adopting Belmont as a Cinderella before the tourney began... so they will be my darkhorse profile. Washington will be my more serious profile.

Best 1st round matchup -
Butler vs. Old Dominion - These are the two mid-majors I was most excited to see the tournament... so of course they are playing each other... then they have to play Pitt in the next round.
Wisconsin vs. Belmont - Wisconsin's been in some kind of swoon... and now they have to deal with Belmont who shoots great 3s, has a great backcourt, and uses 11 players to run as much as possible.

Most anticipated 2nd round matchup -
So far, only 3 of my 8 anticipated matchups have happened.
In 2010, my anticipated matchup was Georgetown vs. Tennessee. It didn't happen because the Ohio Bobcats, seeded 14th, absolutely demolished Georgetown in the 1st round.
In 2009, my anticipated matchups were Syracuse vs. Arizona State (which did happen), and West Virginia vs. Kansas (which didn't happen, because 11-seeded Dayton knocked out West Virginia).
In 2008, my anticipated matchups included two: Indiana vs UNC (where Indiana lost badly in the 1st round to Arkansas) and Notre Dame and Washington State (which actually did happen).
In 2007 my “anticipated” matchup actually happened [Boston College vs. former Big East rival Georgetown], but 2007’s 2nd round matchups were relatively weak.
In 2006, my matchup [Mich. St. vs. UNC] never happened as George Mason wiped out Mich. St. then UNC.
In 2005, I didn’t specifically anoint one matchup, but I alluded to the Kansas-Wisconsin game, but Bucknell took out Kansas in the 1st round to prevent that from happening.

This year, I'm going with 5-Arizona vs. 4-Texas. Texas was supposed to be a 2-seed everyone thought, but they've been punished severely down into the 4-spot. This should be a great game though, assuming both teams make it there.

Darkhorse - Temple! - One of these teams has to go to the Elite 8: Cincy/Missouri/UConn/Temple/Penn St/SD state. If you would have told me that a week ago, I would have laughed. So... I will go with Temple.

Region of Death- East Region (Ohio State's). Just brutal. George Mason vs. Villanova in the 1st round... and both were ranked last week, but one has to win then play Ohio State afterwards. We could have Ohio State, Kentucky, Syracuse, and UNC all in the sweet 16... plus we still have possible cinderalls in Xavier (who has made the Sweet 16 for the last three years, no joke), and Washington, who's computer profile is amazing (as said above).

Cinderella Final 4 Team - I'm historically bad at this... (2010 - Baylor (lost in Elite 8); 2009 - W. Virginia - lost in 1st; 2008 - USC - lost in 1st; 2007 - Maryland - lost in 2nd; 2006 - UCLA - 2-seed, made Final 4; 2005 - Utah - 6-seed, made Sweet 16).
This year, I'm going with: 4-seed Kentucky... if Ohio State were to fall, this would be a team to pick as a Cinderella.

Now, on to the applicable rules of engagement!
Rule #1: All (4) 1-seeds will NOT make Final4 (except in 2008)-
Sadly, Ohio State has the most hoops to jump through, as stated above. However, the next one-seed that looks like they could hit some trouble would be Pitt. They will have tough games in their 8-9 (Butler-Old Dominion) and they could face any of Kansas St, Utah St, Wisconsin, or Belmont who have all had fantactic seasons. This is before the elite 8 even occurs, so it could be troublesome.

Rule#4: A 12-seed always beats a 5 (except in 2000 and 2007)-
West Virginia is susceptible... they get the winner of UAB/Clemson. The UAB/Clemson winner should be excited (and they should be excited because neither of these teams were probably going to even make the tourney!). Kansas State vs. Utah State could also be really interesting.

Rule#6: There always is one conference w/ multiple teams in the final4 (except in 2007, 2008, and 2010) – It hasn't happened much lately, but here are some options:

Ohio St, Duke, Purdue, Pitt (Big 10)
UNC, Duke, Kansas, Pitt (ACC)
Syracuse, Texas, Notre Dame, Pitt (Big East)
Kentucky, Texas, Kansas, Pitt (Big 12)

Rule#9: If you win your power conference tourney and you are NOT a top-10 team, you won't do well in the NCAA tourney:

In 2005, one team lost in the 1st round, the other in the 2nd round
In 2006, all 3 that qualified got bounced in the 1st round!
In 2007, one team qualified [Oregon], but they made the elite 8. I still say Oregon had an easy draw though.
In 2008, Pitt (Big East) and Georgia (SEC) are the only teams that qualified. Georgia only had a 14-seed and got bounced by Xavier. Pitt got a 4-seed and was upset by Michigan State in the 2nd round.
In 2009, 4 teams qualified: Purdue (sweet 16), Missouri (elite 8), USC (2nd round), and Miss St. (1st round loser as 13-seed).
In 2010, one team qualified (Washington)... and they went on a sweet 16 run as an 11-seed.

That's a total of 12 teams qualified... and only 4 made it to the sweet 16 or further, with 5 losing in the 1st round. When I crunched the numbers for the years going all the way back to 1992 (for those conferences that had tournaments): 30 teams qualified, 1 won the championship (11th-ranked Florida in 2006), 1 went to the Final 4 (Miss. St in 1996 in a major surprise). 4 made it to to the sweet 16 or Elite 8, with TWELVE losing in the 1st round (though 5 of those were unranked conference tournament winners).

This year, we have these teams qualifying as conference tournament winners: Kentucky (SEC), Washington (PAC-10), UConn (Big East).

Rule #10: The favorite almost NEVER survives the “Region of Death” (UNC in 1998, UNC in 2005, Duke in 2004 made the Final 4, UNC in 2008 made the Final 4), and certainly will never win the whole tournament.
I went back through 1997 and tried to determine what my “region of death” was (a subjective assessment indeed). Out of the years I analyzed, only 4 #1 seeds made it through, and only 1 won the whole damn thing (UNC – 2005). Funny, because this year, Ohio State has drawn the "region of death"... but they could be the second team to possibly pull it off.

Tiki

2011-03-09T11:08:00.001-05:00

On the one hand there's a certain sadness that somebody could self-destruct to the point of trying or purporting to try to get back into football. On the other hand, the key word is self-destruct as in he caused his own problems.....

Eve of Madness

2011-03-07T04:22:00.000-05:00

Ok 1 week to go before the greatest sporting event of the year...March Madness. Hooray. Fortunately or Unfortunately conference tourney's are weighed heavily so it's probably best to wait until Sunday before making grand proclamations on who is seeded what and where they are going (Houston?). I will say given the regular season outcomes Ohio State and Kansas appear to be locks for number 1 seeds. Ohio State will start the Madness in Cleveland...a nice home field advantage.

A few games to watch this week for those thinking about bubbles...Butler v. UW-Milwaukee. Butler is potentially an at-large bid no matter what so those bubblicious schools (MSU, Alabama, V-Tech, etc.) will be praying for a Butler win. A similar type match up is happening in the Colonial league at Old Dominion is tournament bound no matter what so bubble teams are rooting hard against VCU taking a bid.

Random Congratulatory Note

Hats off to Jantel Lavendar..of tOSU's women's basketball team. Jantel won Big 10 player of the Year for the fourth straight year this year. That's an impressive feat in any sport....

Recruiting Problems

Apparently Oregon is not only USC's heir apparent at winning the Pac-12 but also it's heir apparent for recruiting violations. It turns out Oregon is embroiled in a bit of scandal in which it paid off recruiters to steer players it's way. Congrats Oregon...you have officially hit the big time.

Random Hottie

It's been awhile...but it's a Monday so we all need a little pick me up..As such Nicole Pissari

Pot Luck - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2011

2011-03-06T13:31:00.003-05:00

This is the last preview, potpourri-style!

UNC, Sag #12, kenpom offense #39, kenpom defense #3, 1st in conference at 14-2, 24-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Kentucky, Clemson (twice), Duke (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Minnesota, Vandy, Illinois, Texas, Geo Tech (all with the PG who has since left)
3P% - 32.3%, 3Pt defense - 31.6%, Reb. Margin = +6.5, FT 66.0%, FG 45.2 %, Opp. FG 39.9% –
Led by Harrison Barnes (6'8" freshman, 14.1 ppg, 32% 3p%, 5.6 rebs), who is playing much better over the second half. Tyler Zeller is an awkward 7 footer (junior, 14.6 ppg, 54.1FG%, 7.1 Rebs). His skills may not translate well to the NBA, but he's good in college. Most importantly, Kendall Marshall (a 6'3" freshman, 5.9 ppg, 5.6 assists, 38.2% 3p%) has been incredible. According to kenpom.com, his assist rate is 8th best in the nation. This is considerable, considering the PG who started the first half of the season was much worse offensively (but probably better defensively). Tough team to gauge, since half the stats are with a different PG and before Harrison Barnes started playing well.

Duke, Sag #4, kenpom offense #7, kenpom defense #2, 1st in conference at 13-3, 27-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Marquette, Kansas St, Mich St, Butler, UNC (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Fla. St, St. John's, Va. Tech, UNC
3P% - 37.9%, 3Pt defense - 32.1%, Reb. Margin = +2.9, FT 74.8%, FG 46.7%, Opp. FG 40.1% –
Duke is led by Senior PG Nolan Smith (6'2", 21.6 ppg, 5.2 assists, 36% 3p%) and Senior 6'8" Kyle Singler (17.1 ppg, 6.6 rebs, 33.5% 3p%) . Seth Curry (6'1" sophomore, 9.4 ppg, 43.8% 3p%) has started to play more in the 2nd half. The big man is 6'10" sophomore Plumlee who is a great rebounder (7.1 ppg, 8.7 rebs, 57% FG%, 1.7 blocks). I just dislike Duke so much it's hard for me to judge them.

Utah St, Sag #21, kenpom offense #48, kenpom defense #6, 1st in conference at 15-1, 28-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: St. Mary's
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: BYU, Georgetown, IDAHO!
3P% - 36.1%, 3Pt defense - 30.6%, Reb. Margin = +8.2, FT 73.2%, FG 47.2%, Opp. FG 38.3% –
Classic small-conference team who hasn't played anyone. After they beat St. Mary's, St. Mary's went into a tail-spin, so they may not have any good wins. They are led by Tai Welsy (6'7" senior, 14.5 ppg, 7.9 rebs, 59% FG% ) who is very efficient, and junior Bockeith Pane (11.3 ppg, 3.5 assists, 43% FG%). 6'7" junior Brady Jardine ( 7.9 ppg, 7.4 rebs, 54% FG%) and Nate Bendall (6'9" senior, 6.4 ppg, 5.6 rebs, 49%) clean up the glass. They also have three 3-point specialists (46.8 and 37.7% and 36.4). It will be interesting to see who they are matched up against. However, notably, they were outrebounded 35-32 by BYU (BYU!), and outrebounded 28-21 by Georgetown.

Arizona, Sag #22, kenpom offense #17, kenpom defense #61, 1st in conference at 14-4, 25-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UCLA (split), USC (split), Wash (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Kansas, BYU, Ore St!!!, Washington (split), USC (split), UCLA (split)
3P% - 39.7%, 3Pt defense - 28.0%, Reb. Margin = +9.5, FT 75.2%, FG 47.3%, Opp. FG 43.9% –
I kept thinking this team might be dangerous... but they only beat good teams at home, then lose to them on the road. That is a bad sign I'm guessing. They have a top-5 NBA draft pick in 6'8" sophomore Derrick Williams (2nd in nation in true shooting % (70.3!?!), 18.8 ppg, 8.2 rebs, 61% FG%!). After that, not much else going on with this team. Seriously, everyone else is below 10 ppg, below 5 rebounds, below 3 assits, and three bench guys shoot over 42% from 3. The most interesting thing is how well they shoot 3s (though no one person does all the damage)... and how well they defend 3-pointers. What's weird is that they don't defend 2-pointers well at all... in fact they are a poor defensive team overall.

UCLA, Sag #39, kenpom offense #76, kenpom defense #23, 2nd in conference at 13-5, 22-9
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: BYU, Arizona (split), St. John's
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Washington (sweep), Nova, VCU, Kansas, MONTANA, Cal (classic let-down game, after beating arizona by 20)
3P% - 32.9%, 3Pt defense - 34.1%, Reb. Margin = +4.0, FT 68.4%, FG 46.0%, Opp. FG 41.4% –
It's a very young team, hence the uneven play... though they've played better in the 2nd half. They are led by Reeves Nelson (6'8" sophomore, 14.2 ppg, 8.9 rebs, 58% FG%), Malcolm Lee (6'4" junior, 13.2 ppg, 43%FG%, 29% 3p%), Tyler Honeycutt (6'8" sophomore, 12.4 ppg, 7.4 rebs, 2 blocks, 40% FG%, 35% 3pt%), and PG Lazeric Jones (6'0" junior, 9.5 ppg, 3.6 assists, 36% 3p%, 39% FG%). It's a balanced attack... but as evidenced by their wins over BYU and St. John's, they can elevate their game. Also of note, they only lost to Kansas by 1. Their lack of rebounding could be a problem.

Washington, Sag #35, kenpom offense #9, kenpom defense #48, 3rd in conference at 11-7, 20-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: USC (split), UCLA (sweep), Arizona (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Kentucky (by 7), Mich St (by 5), Texas A&M (by 1)
3P% - 37.2%, 3Pt defense - 32.4%, Reb. Margin = +13.7, FT 66.5%, FG 47.2%, Opp. FG 41.6% –
All the computers love this team... probably because of the close losses early on. Led by the 'lil 5'8" Isaiah Thomas (16.6 ppg, 5.6 assits, 34% 3p%), who is still trying to clear his name from the evil Isiah Thomas. They also have Bryan-Amaning (6'9" senior, 16ppg, 8.3 rebs, 1.7 blocks, 56% FG%) and Justin Holiday (6'6" senior, 11.3 ppg, 5.2 rebs, 39% 3p%). They also have a 7'0" center, sophomore Aziz N'Diaye (4.8 ppg, 5.7 rebs, 1.3 blocks, 56%FG%). So... they are really just a large team with a little PG.

Belmont, Sag #33, kenpom offense #34, kenpom defense #20, 1st in conference at 19-1, 30-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: n/a
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Tennessee (twice!), Vanderbilt, Lipscomb
3P% - 38.1%, 3Pt defense - 32.8%, Reb. Margin = +3.5, FT 73.6%, FG 46.2%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
Classic small-conference team who hasn't played anyone. This is worse than Utah State, because they really haven't beaten anyone. Led by Ian Clark (12.4 ppg, 43.6 3p%), big-man Hedgepath (10.6 ppg, 6 rebs, 53% FG%), and big-man Saunders (10 ppg, 5.4 rebs, 51 FG%). They also have a 3-pt specialist in Jordan Campbell (8.4 ppg, 46% 3pt%). Interestingly, they have a 9-player rotation, where no one plays more than 25 mpg, and they are one of the best teams at creating turnovers, as well as being excellent 3-point shooters. The poor rebounding margin is not a good sign. In their 3 games against Tennessee and Vanderbilt, they were outrebounded 36-21, 39-25, but did outrebound Tenn 47-40 in the last game. So... bottom line, super 3-point team, super team at stealing, but no big men.

Geore Mason, Sag #26, kenpom offense #25, kenpom defense #39, 1st in conference at 16-2, 26-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Old Dominion (split), VCU (split), No. iowa?
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: NC St, Wofford, Dayton, Hofstra
3P% - 40.4%, 3Pt defense - 30.8%, Reb. Margin = +2.4, FT 69.6%, FG 47.5%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
This team has 3 3-point shooters, with a fourth coming off the bench. They are not good at rebounding though. They are led by Cam Long (6'4" senior, 15.1 ppg, 4.6 reb, 43.7% 3p%), Ryan Pearson (6'6" junior, 14.5 ppg, 6.8 rebs, 40.5% 3p%), Luke Hancock (6'5" sophomore 10.9 ppg, 4.4 assists), and Andre Cornelius (5'10" junior 10ppg, 39.7% 3p%). They are very efficient on offense, and play good team defense. The lack of a non-conference schedule makes them hard to predict.

Old Dominion, Sag #37, kenpom offense #78, kenpom defense #42, 2nd in conference at 14-4, 25-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Clemson, Xavier, Richmond, Dayton, G. Mason (split), VCU (split), Cleve St
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Georgetown, Delaware!, Missouri, Drexel
3P% - 32.6%, 3Pt defense - 36.9%, Reb. Margin = +11.4, FT 66.7%, FG 43.4%, Opp. FG 40.3% –
This team is the opposit of most any mid-major... they are one of the best rebounding teams in the country... and they suck at shooting 3s! They are led by F. Hassell (6'8" senior, 14.5 ppg, 9.8 rebs, 55%FG%), Kent Bazemore (6'5" junior 12.5 ppg, 5.1 rebs, 40.5% 3pt%, 2.3 steals). This team's performance will depend on the matchup, because they can get torched by good guard play (i.e. Georgetown, the running-style of Missouri). Interstingly, they knocked out Notre Dame last year in the 1st round... so be mindful of this team. It's also almost all seniors and juniors this year.

Xavier, Sag #31, kenpom offense #32, kenpom defense #54, 1st in conference at 15-1, 24-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Butler, Temple, Richmond, Georgia, Duquesne
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Old Dominion, Gonzaga, Florida, Cincy, MiamiOH!, Charlotte!
3P% - 33.3%, 3Pt defense - 33.2%, Reb. Margin = +4.8, FT 75.0%, FG 46.3%, Opp. FG 39.9% –
They are led by super junior, Tu Holloway (6'0", 20.1 ppg, 5.5 assists, 5.2 rebs, 34.6% 3p% , 43%FG%), Lyons (6'1" sophomore, 13.8 ppg, 41% FG%), big man Kenny Frease (7'0" junior, 11.9 ppg, 7.2 rebs, 54.7% FG%), and a 2nd big-man in Jamel McLean (6'8" senior, 10.8 ppg, 8.5 rebs, 54.6 FG%). Intestingly, against Gonzaga, Florida, and Cincy they were outrebounded 35-21, 38-30, and 34-24. Of course, Old Dominion also outrebounded them 33-23, but ODU, as said above, is awesome at rebounding. The more I see these numbers, this Xavier team may be the one that can't continue the streak of continuous sweet 16s (Xavier has made the sweet 16 3 straight years going into this one).

Temple, Sag #30, kenpom offense #53, kenpom defense #40, 2nd in conference at 14-2, 24-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Georgia, Maryland, Georgetwon, Richmond
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Cal, Texas A&M, Nova, Duquesne, Xavier, Duke
3P% - 35.1%, 3Pt defense - 34.5%, Reb. Margin = +3.4, FT 69.0%, FG 44.8%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
They are led by Razor Ramone Moore (6'4" junior, 14.8 ppg, 4.3 rebs, 39.8% 3p%, 43% FG%), Lavoy Allen (6'9" senior, 11.8 ppg, 8.2 reb, 48% FG%), and Scootie Randall (6'6" junior, 11.6 ppg, 5.1 rebs, 37% 3p%, 49% FG%). I'm not sure what to make of this team. They are not bad at anything, not terribly great at anything. They do play great defense though, and I love the great non-conference wins on their resume.

This is not a story from the 18th Century

2011-03-03T09:50:00.002-05:00

I know I haven't posted in a while. Been overwhelmed with work and underwhelmed with most of the stories in sports.
As most of you know by now, BYU has suspended their top player for the rest of the season and the tournament. It surfaced today that it is because he broke the honor code, but having "relations" with his girlfriend.
http://http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=6175090
At first glance, I was outraged that in this day and age a player could be punished for boning his girlfriend. I mean, this isn't "The Scarlet Letter" and Hester Prynne doesn't play small forward.
But, then I started thinking about the whole situation and started to reconsider. While I think its a fair bet to say my moral compass is at odds with BYU on a number of issues, and I would never attend that school, this Brandon Davies chose to go there. In attending that school and playing basketball, he knew what he was getting into. He knew this school was tough on these types of moral issues and had to know the consequences when he chose to attend.
Now, I'm not naive, freshmen ball players at other schools drink, which is a violation. That is true. However, I think BYU is different and Davies knew that. I'm still not even 100% convinced that is the right opinion either.

All in all, I think this is a VERY interesting story, and raises issues that really make you think.
Also, it is somewhat refreshing to hear about a player "getting in trouble" for this, and not for stealing a car, assaulting a woman, getting into a drunken fight, or even accepting gifts from boosters. Actually, refreshing isn't the right word, but its good to know there are some college athletes where even on their worst day, they aren't committing the criminal acts listed above.

I would be interested to hear what the rest of you think. In the words of Ned Flanders, "As melon-scratchers go, this one's a honey doodle."

MMBSD: Close to the Madness

2011-02-28T05:32:00.000-05:00

Only 1 more week of regular basketball before the conference tourneys start up (less for a number of the Mid-Major tournaments). The one constant this year has been don't be ranked #1 as that makes you oddly more likely to lose. This week is was Duke, nd Texas falling to bubble teams (at best) and Pitt getting upset by Louisville. The signs and portents are that its going to be a particularly unpredictable Madness infused March.

A few teams to keep an eye that seem to be playing better of late: UCLA and K-State. UCLA dominated Arizona early in the week to move into a tie for the Pac-10 lead. The other is K-State who had a disappointing season until recently. In the past 2 weeks they've knocked off KU and Missouri. They play Texas this coming week and a victory could signal dark horse to the sweet 16...something unthinkable earlier in the year.
Two teams that I found very disappointing this week was BYU and San Diego State. Undisciplined, bad shot selection, ugly fouls, horrible smelling fans... I'll be surprised if either of these highly ranked teams make it to the second weekend of the Madness.

ESPN Controversy
Well kind of. Turns out that several ESPN on-air personalities have shoe endorsement deals. If ESPN even pretended it had anything to do with journalism then this would be disappointing. But ESPN is in the entertainment business. It would be nice if they labeled their product as such much like professional wrestling refers to itself as sports entertainment. Also it would be nice if Lee Corso and Kirk Herbstreit occasionally got punched in the face but that's an unrelated issue....

Duke Snider, 1926-2011

2011-02-27T17:39:00.002-05:00

Whenever one of the legendary baseball stars of the 50s dies, it gives me an excuse to call my Dad and hear his boyhood memories of watching the fallen superstar.

I love those phone calls...and yet I hate them.

The Duke of Flatbush, an 8-time All-Star, is still the Dodgers' all-time leader in HR (389) and RBI (1271). By all accounts, he was one of the best all-around centerfielders to ever play the game.

Rest in peace, Duke.

Big East - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2011

2011-02-26T19:08:00.006-05:00

It's almost March... so it's time for more college basketball conference previews!

Pitt, Sag #4, kenpom offense #4, kenpom defense #20, 1st in conference at 13-2, 25-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Texas, Maryland, Duquesne, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Tennessee, Notre Dame, St. John's
3P% - 38.3%, 3Pt defense - 33.6%, Reb. Margin = +11.4, FT 66.3%, FG 47.5%, Opp. FG 40.1% –
Excellent resume, certain contender.
Led by Ashton Gibbs (6'2" junior, 16.4 ppg, 46.6% 3p%), Wanamaker (6'4" senior, 12.3 ppg, 5 assists, 5 rebs, 36.6% 3p%), and the big man is McGhee (6'10" senior, 7.3 ppg, 7.8 rebs, 1.4 blocks, 57% FG% (ken pom has him as a top-25 rebounder, and top-100 blocker)). Notably, Gibbs, the PG, missed 3 games with an MCL injury. During those 3 games, Pitt beat W. Va by 5, Nova by 3, and So. Florida. They then lost by 1 to St. John's when he returned. This team is certainly a team to consider for going far in the tourney.

Notre Dame, Sag #12, kenpom offense #7, kenpom defense #73, 2nd in conference at 11-4, 22-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Kentucky, Syracuse, Marquette, St Johns, W. Va
3P% - 37.7%, 3Pt defense - 36.0% (rank: 245), Reb. Margin = +4.8, FT 72.8%, FG 46.1%, Opp. FG 41.3% –
Notre Dame has had a great season out and in-conference. They play poor defense though. They are led by Ben Hnasbrough (6'3" senior, 17.9 ppg, 4 assists, 42% 3p%, 47% FG%), and Tim Abromaitis (6'8" senior, 14.6 ppg, 6.2 rebs, 40% 3p%, 45% FG%) and their big man is Carleton scott (6'7" senior, 11.5 ppg, 7.2 rebs, 1.8 blocks, 37% 3p%, 47% FG%).
So... if you like seniors, and a team that can purely outscore another team, this is a great team to cheer for. They play poor defense though, which is a concern, though we would need to look more into who they have defenseive breakdowns against.

Louisville, Sag #14, kenpom offense #43, kenpom defense #13, 3rd in conference at 10-5, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Butler, Syracuse, W. Va., UConn (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Drexel!, Kentucky, Villanova, Providence!, Cincy
3P% - 36.9%, 3Pt defense - 31.8% (rank: 49), Reb. Margin = +0.9, FT 66.0%, FG 45.9%, Opp. FG 40.1% –
This is another team that wasn't expected to do much, but has done surprisingly well. They are led by 6'1" senior Preston Knowles (14.5 ppg, 3.7 rebs, 40% 3p%, 38% FG%) and Siva (5'11" soph, 10.2 ppg, 5.0 assists) and Jennings is the big man (6'9" junior, 9.7 pts, 5.3 rebs, 1.9 blocks, 54% FG%). Interstingly, Knowles and Siva are both excellent at creating steals (1.9 and 2.2 per game respectively). However, this team doesn't do well in rebounding. Should be an interesting team to watch, since they clearly live on the 3-pointers with 3 other guys aside from Knowles shoting over 40% per game.

St. John's, Sag #25, kenpom offense #58, kenpom defense #22, 3rd in conference at 10-5, 18-9
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Georgetown, Notre Dame, Duke, Pitt, UConn
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure, Fordham!, UCLA, Cincy (split)
3P% - 33.0%, 3Pt defense - 36.4% (rank: 267), Reb. Margin = -0.5, FT 71.0%, FG 45.7%, Opp. FG 42.9% –
This has been my favorite team to follow in the scores all season. They've beaten 4 top-10 teams! They've also lost to two awful teams and St. Mary's, but that's before they started playing like mad men. This team was supposed to do nothing, but new coach Steve Lavin (former UCLA coach from 7 years ago) has them playing possessed. Also... this team has 10 seniors. Yes, TEN. How does that happen? Well, they had 10 juniors last season, but in 2008-2009 they "only" had 8 sophomores. That's because Hardy (JUCO transfer) and Brownlee (JUCO transfer) were added. In 2007-2008, they "only" had 7 freshmen, one of them being Rob Thomas who had a knee injury wipe him out for the 2006-2007 season (see page 52 of the media guide). I think this all stems back to 2003-2004, when due to a number of infractions, St. John's lost 7 of 15 players (along with most of the games).

Anyways, back to this team. Hardy has been awesome (6'2" senior, 17.3 ppg, 44.8% FG%, 34.8% 3p%). Brownlee (6'7" senior, 12.1 ppg, 5.1 rebs, 49.8% FG%) and Kennedy (6'6" senior, 10.5ppg, 5.7 rebs46.8 % FG%). They aren't big (they have a NEGATIVE rebounding margin!). It's really all about Hardy, going off some nights and the factd that they have a balanced attack. Let's be clear here though, they have no great 3-point shooters, they play poor defense... but they somehow win games (especially against good teams). It's puzzling, fascinating, and I can't wait to see who they get in the tourney, because a story about 10 seniors banding together and beating all expectations, is just an irresistable story.

Syracuse, Sag #11, kenpom offense #20, kenpom defense #19, 5th in conference at 10-6, 23-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Michigan, Mich St, Notre Dame, Villanova, UConn
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Pitt, Nova, Seton Hall, Marq, Georgetown, Louisville
3P% - 34.3%, 3Pt defense - 32.0%, Reb. Margin = +4.1, FT 65.8%, FG 46.7%, Opp. FG 39.2% –
This Syracuse team runs the zone defense well of course. They went through a bit of a lull but are playing better of late. They have a balanced attack led by Kris Joseph (6'7" junior, 14.7 ppg, 5 rebs, 37% 3p%), Rick Jackson (6'9" senior, 13.1 ppg, 11 rebs (ranked in the top 100 rebounders and blockers on kenpom), 58.8% FG%), Scoop Jardine (6'2" junior, 12.4 ppg, 5.9 assists, 33% 3p%), and Brandon Triche (6'4" sophomore, 11.4 ppg, 32% 3p%!). I think this team is intriguing at least.

Georgetown, Sag #10, kenpom offense #11, kenpom defense #48, 5th in conference at 10-6, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Old Dominion, Missouri, Villanova, Louisville, Syracuse,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Temple, St. John's, W. Va, Cincy, UConn
3P% - 37.5% (rank: 48), 3Pt defense - 32.7%, Reb. Margin = +2.9, FT 73.4%, FG 48.9%, Opp. FG 41.6% –
**The #1 issue with this team is that their PG, Chris Wright (6'1" senior, 13.1 ppg, 5.4 assists), is injured and may not return in time for March Madness. This issue should be checked on between now and the tourney.
Georgetown is a small team focused on three guards, one of which, Wright, who is injured. Austin Freeman (6'3" senior, 17.8 ppg, 40.6 3p%, 50.8% FG%) is the main cog, and the third man is Jason Clark (6'2" junior, 12 ppg, 4 rebs, 37.4% 3p%). The only big men are Vaughn (6'9" senior, 6.3 rebs, 2 blocks) and 6'7" Hollis Thompson (4.4 rebs). So... when healthy, they have a lot of guards, but they are a small team and will get destroyed on the inside.

Villanova, Sag #16, kenpom offense #17, kenpom defense #31, 7th in conference at 9-6, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UCLA, Temple, Cincy, Louisville, Maryland, Syracuse,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Tennessee, Providence, Rutgers, Uconn, Georgetown, PPitt
3P% - 34.6%, 3Pt defense - 29.6% (rank: 10), Reb. Margin = +6.1, FT 76.2%, FG 44.2%, Opp. FG 39.7% –
This team looks great on paper... but they have now lost 7 of their last 12 (and 4 of their last 6). They only have Notre Dame and Pitt left. I'm actually worried for how far this slide is going to hurt them. They are led by the 6'1" senior PG Corey Fisher (16ppg, 36% 3p%, 43% FG%, 5 asssits, 2.4 TOs) and 6'5" senior Corey Stokes (15ppg, 42% 3pointers). Their big men are Pena (6'8" senior, 7.5 rebs) and a 6'10" sophomore, Yarou (7.2 rebs). So... three of their best players are seniors. This team just needs to get its shit together, because on paper, it has all the tools it needs.

Cincy, Sag #15, kenpom offense #65, kenpom defense #8, 7th in conference at 9-6, 22-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Xavier, St Johns (split), Louisville, Georgtown
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Nova, Syracuse, ND, W. Va, Pitt, St Johns (split)
3P% - 34.4%, 3Pt defense - 31.8% (rank 38), Reb. Margin = +4.6, FT 65.8%, FG 43.3%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
They, along with W. VA, and Marquette, will be on the bubble until the end of the Big East tourney. This Cincy team only has the out-of-conference victory over Xavier, and then whatever they could get in the conference. They have no go-to-guy - with 5 guys averagin between 8.5 ppg, and 11.2 ppg! They seem to be sloppy with the ball, but shoot poorly, and play great defense to end up with some close games. They are ranked so highly in Sagarin right now, mainly because of the conference they are in, so it will be interesting to see where they are slotted. I wouldn't trust them at all if they made the tourney.

W. Virginia, Sag #20, kenpom offense #27, kenpom defense #35, 8th in conference at 8-7, 17-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Oakland, Duquesne, Cleve St, Purdue, Georgetown, ND
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Minnesota, Miami (FL), Marq, Marshall, Louisville,
3P% - 33.7%, 3Pt defense - 28.6% (rank: 6), Reb. Margin = +2.6, FT 69.6%, FG 43.2%, Opp. FG 41.1% –
This team has been interesting. They played a soft out of conference schedule. They somehow are great at stopping 3-pointers, but are not strong inside. They will probably be on the bubble until the end as well. They are led by Casey Mitchell (15.1 ppg, 38.7% 3p%, 6'2" junior) and Kevin Jones (12.6ppg, 6.9 rebs, 43% FG%, 6'8" junior).

UConn, Sag #17, kenpom offense #37, kenpom defense #32, 8th in conference at 8-7, 20-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Kentucky, Mich St, Texas, Tennessee, Georgetown
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Pitt, Louisville (twice), Syracuse, St Johns, Marq
3P% - 33.5%, 3Pt defense - 32.5%, Reb. Margin = +4.4, FT 73.1%, FG 42.7%, Opp. FG 39.2% –
They are led by 6'1" junior Kemba Walker. Walker averages a ridiculous 23 ppg, but on an awful 42.5% FG%, 35.5% 3pointers. He also chips in 5.3 rebs and 4.5 rebs. The 2nd option is Oriakhi, a 6'9" sophomore, averaging 10.4 ppg, 8.7 reb, 2.0 blocks. UConn is a strange team, as they weren't expected to even be good this year, but Kemba Walker played out of his mind to help them beat Kentucky, Mich St, Texas, and Tennessee out of conference. They have been stubmling of late, so they may be falling back down to earth. In the end, I'm not sure if Kemba Walker all on his own can really take them that far in the tourney, now that there's so much tape from the Big East on how to stop him. It's not like he can sneak up on people, as he kind of did at the start of the season.

Marquette, Sag #29, kenpom offense #14, kenpom defense #67, 8th in conference at 8-7, 17-11
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: W. Va, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Uconn (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Duke, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, St. John's, Georgetown
3P% - 35.3%, 3Pt defense - 34.9%, Reb. Margin = +2.5, FT 69.3%, FG 47.6%, Opp. FG 44.2% (ouch!) –
This team is still a bubble team, and will be all the way through the Big East Tourney, despite the great Sagarin ranking. Their numbers are not that great in any department, especially defensively. They are led by Johnson-Odom, a 6'2" junior, 16ppg, who shoots 35.6% from 3-point land and J. Butler, a 6'7" senior, 15.6 ppg, 6.2 rebs, 49% FG%.

NBA Trade Deadline 2011: Instant Analysis

2011-02-24T21:58:00.003-05:00

NBA Trade Deadline 2011 was full of twists, turns, surprises, and lots of shock value. Here's a list of all of the trades, and here now are the highlights (or lowlights depending on your perspective):

Trade I can Hardly Understand:
Celtics trade Center Kendrick Perkins (and PG Nate Robinson) to Ok City for Forward Jeff Green and Center Kristic - Well, I can't understand this trade. ESPN reports the trade just involves the player. Sports Illustrated reports, via the Boston Globe, that the Celtics also get the 2012 Clippers 1st round pick (that Ok City owned). If this is true, then I could believe the theory that the Celtics thought: a) Perkins is not going to be 100%, b) he's leaving in free agency, c) Jeff Green, a stretch PF on OKCity, but is really a SF, can backup Pierce since Marquis Daniels is injured for the season, and d) they get a top-10 pick. The other possible conspiracy theory is that the Celtics really don't respect Dwight Howard and the Magic, and believe they don't need a center to beat the Bulls, Heat, Magic, or the Lakers. Yes, I hope the Celtics get the 1st round pick, because otherwise, this makes no sense and they should have just gone for the championship this season.

Second trade I can Hardly Understand:
Blazers get Gerald Wallace's poisonous contract in exchange for two 1st round picks and Dante Cunningham
I can understand the Blazers wanting to continue to amass assets... but I don't understand why they acquired Gerald Wallace. He plays PF/SF... but the Blazers already have PF Aldridge and SF Batum (who is quite good). I just don't get where everyone will play. I also don't understand why they gave up two 1st round picks. Eesh. Hope it works out, especially since it would be silly to believe Brandon Roy is ever going to be 100%, since he's had too many knee surgeries between high school, college, and now.

GM that has Mad Skills: Houston GM:
Houston trades Aaron Brooks for Goran Dragic AND a 1st round pick; Houston trades Shane Battier for Hasheem Thabeet AND a 1st round pick
Look, it was known that Houston was shopping Battier, and that Brooks had somehow fallen out of favor. But, to somehow pick up two 1st round picks, as well as two young players who could still pan out? That's pretty impressive, I must say. Granted, I think Thabeet sucks, but there are so few 7-footers out there, you mine as well give it a try. Darko has finally embraced the role of defensive center (albeit 8 years after he was drafted). Dragic is still an unknown commodity. He exploded in last year's playoffs in a crucial playoff game... and then he has been awful this year. Not sure what's up with him. Perhaps the more important aspect of this trade is the fact that Steve Nash may be leaving, soon. Maybe next summer? We shall see.

Trade that Only Makes Sense if You Have a Rich Owner
Cavs trade Mo Williams for Baron Davis and Unprotected 1st round pick
Well... Baron Davis blows, but this trade is not about Baron Davis. It's about the fact that each contract is for the same length. So, essentially, the Cavs owner is paying about $12 million to get a top-10 draft pick in 2011! Sounds awesome, until you remember that the NBA's labor problems could result in many players not going out to the draft this year. Cavs fans, keep your fingers crossed.

Trade that Shook Everyone to the Core
Nets trade PG Devin Harris, PF Derrick Favors, two 1st round picks, for PG Deron Williams
I think what was shocking at first about this was that no one had any idea Deron Williams was going to be available, especially after Utah's coach had suddenly retired in response to Deron's antics. As it turns out, this is a great move for Utah. They did it because it was clear to them that Deron wasn't re-signing with the team in 2012. So, instead they have a highly regarded player (Favors), two 1st round picks (which should be high picks), and an above-average, former All-Star PG, albeit one with an attitude problem. That was a pretty good take! This trade gets into a lot of other issues, i.e. how you don't want to end up like Cleveland/Toronto and go for it all, only to have your superstar leave you high and dry with nothing but a sign-and-trade and some 2nd round picks. The NBA may have different rules after the strike, but as of right now, its become apparent that NBA stars will force their way onto whatever team they want (and they tend to be large cities). So... small/mid-size cities need to do things like Utah, or Denver (getting PG Felton, SF Gallinari, SG Chandler, C Mozgov) to keep their teams competitive.

Trade that is based on a High Level of Confidence
Cavs get C Erden, F Harangody, in exchange for a 2013 2nd-round draft pick
Apparently, the Celtics traded two players in exchange for a 2013 2nd-round draft pick. I originally thought they did it in exchange for SG Anthony Parker. Nope. Just a draft pick! SI believes they did this so that the Celtics can then pick up a couple of players who get bought out (I'm guessing F Troy Murphy and SG Anthony Parker?). Granted, I find it funny how the rumor all week is that the Cavs demanded Erden for Parker, and both sides wouldn't budge... until Parker wasn't included in the trade! The Celtics must be pretty confident of some players becoming available. Either that, or this Turkish center is not as good as he was hyped to be!

Eat $h*t And Die, Reilly

2011-02-24T09:51:00.007-05:00

Not that I am particularly enamored of Carmelo Anthony the person or Carmelo Anthony the basketball player and not that I think his acquisition by the Knicks will make them a decidedly better basketball team...

...but I hate these sorts of whiny, populist, anti-free market bullshit articles.

Free agency is here. It's been here for several decades now. If you can't accept that people have a right to choose where they want to earn a paycheck then you should probably not follow sports or move to Thailand where slavery and indentured servitude is apparently still accepted.

We don't have to like the way professional athletes behave and we don't have to condone the methods they use to extricate themselves from situations they don't want to be in but, frankly, anyone that has ever left one job for another has performed some version of the same wiggly dance that Carmelo Anthony just performed.

My message to Rick Reilly is simple: you're a millionaire and you quit Sports Illustrated to work for ESPN. You're a motherfucking phony. Perhaps Sports Illustrated should've put a "franchise tag" on you? The reality is, however, that no one at SI misses you because you sucked.

And We've Reached a New Low...

2011-02-22T21:45:00.004-05:00

Colin Cowherd, possibly the most unlikeable of ESPN radio hosts, will be getting his own tv sitcom on CBS. I'm trying to imagine the over/under on a number of episodes actually aired. I'm pretty it is less than 4 or I think I might have to give up on the tv watching habits of this country. Oh and adding to the list of things I'd rather watch.... Michael Irvin in a Midsummer's Night Dream, the NBA Ladder Dunk Contest, Tony Korneiser talking about the internet, I could go on and on but I'll stop....

The Most Artificially Exciting (and Scripted) Dunk Contest Ever

2011-02-21T21:23:00.005-05:00

For those who only saw the highlights, or who missed the NBA dunk contest this weekend, I need to address what really happened:

The 2011 NBA dunk contest was a scripted, WWF-style event
Each of the 4 participants (Blake Griffin, DeMar Derozoan, Serge Ibaka, Javale McGee) had a celebrity coach. The celebrity "coaches" (mainly Chris Webber and Kenny Smith) were the equivalent of early 1990s pro wrestling managers (think Jimmy Hart) who gave speeches and other bizarre things before dunks. I'm not joking. Aside from the fact that each had a coach/manager, the NBA decided that instead of relying on young athletes to somehow think of original dunks or original ways to provide showmanship in a dunk contest, the NBA also followed the lead of the WWF/WWE/WCW and MUST have had writers script each athlete's dunks. The 1st round of dunks were better than the last 5 years combined I believe! Here's what happened in the opening round:
1) McGee dunking two basketballs on two hoops standing next to each other
2) McGee following it with dunking three basketballs (two quickly, and tapping a 3rd one in on an alley oop)
3) Ibaka involving a young, 7-year old child actor who said "my toy is stuck on the hoop!" and Ibaka saying, "don't worry, I'll get it down," then Ibaka inadvertently knocking part of the stuffed monkey to the ground, requiring an NBA employee to get on a lift to re-install the stuffed monkey, so Ibaka then dunked the basketball and caught part of the toy monkey in his mouth, and then took it out of his mouth and gave the toy to the child actor
4) Ibaka dunking from the free throw line (a la Jordan)
5) Derozan actually doing unreal dunks (but less showmanship)
6) Blake Griffin doing worse dunks than Derozan, but advancing with the EXACT NECESSARY score because of his planned finale involving a gospel choir singing "I believe I can Fly" while Griffin jumped over the hood of a KIA car where Baron Davis threw a pass through the moon roof of the car.

In conclusion, the dunk contest was exciting. I just never thought I would see an event with more props (extra hoops, choirs, cars, toy monkeys, horrible child actors) and scripts than in all of the previous dunk contests combined. There's obviously no turning back now though. 2012's dunk contest will have to be even better. I think fire is the next obvious element to include!

Would A Favorite Please Stand Up?

2011-02-21T10:04:00.003-05:00

With only about 2 weeks remaining of regular season basketball, the top spots are in flux. Nobody seems immune to being upset these days. Kansas, tOSU, Pitt, Muburak....all going down when previously they seemed fairly unbeatable. Where does this leave us? Well, in a position in which conference tourney outcomes will probably dictate a good deal of the final outcome. One team hanging on the outside is San Diego State. At the moment there's a number of poll prognasticators putting them in at a 2 seed. Could they move even farther up?

NBA Ratings

While I , and well most of the BSD, have generally tuned out basketball, it appears the rest of the country is tuning in. The NBA tv ratings (most recently the all-star game) have been doing gang busters. Partially, sports ratings in general are up (I'm guessing more people are staying at home due to the economy) but the message that Stern gets is that despite the complaints super teams and douchebag superstars get ratings.

NFL Talks

Continue to meander about, I assume closer to the deadlines things will heat up, although I'm expecting racalcitrant owners to drag this into the summer. And obviously I have no data or facts to back that up.

Spring Time

2011-02-14T09:03:00.002-05:00

With the weather heating up (well at least here) Spring is starting to feel nearby. Hooray. I won't debate the greatest words in the English language (I maintain it's free chicken finger day) there's no denying that spring makes everyone a little happier....especially for us college basketball...tournament lovers. As hard as it's to believe March Madness is around the corner.

Tournament Tweaks.
CBS/Turner have going to be spacing out the NCAA tournament games. On the one hand no more back to back to back buzzer beaters. On the other hand less regional coverage so that mean's I won't have to suffer through horrible Georgetown basketball while exciting mid-major upset alerts are elsewhere. So all in all I'll give it a tentative thumbs up.

Who's #1?
With tOSU losing at Bucky Badger...the quest for #1 seems to be falling to Kansas. Of course I ask to this who cares? The real question is seeding as is who is in the top 4. Right now Kansas, tOSU, Pittsburgh, Texas and Duke are all in the conversation. Duke probably has the easiest road given the ACC quality but given the recent over-weighting to conference tournament plays I assume nothing will be settled until the end.

Bracket Busters!
One of my favorite weekends of College Basketball is Bracket Buster Weekend (well technically it's 3 days). Basically the best mid-major teams get matched up against one another to try to give a little extra boost to getting into the brackets (possibly as at-larges). My eyes will be on Cleveland State v. Old Dominion but I'd also recommend checking #21 Utah State at St.Mary's.

Other Random
UFC, the premier mixed martial arts league, will garner it's first $10 million gate for its' Toronto event. It's popularity growth is pretty amazing. Vancouver currently is in first place in the NHL. True story. NFL Labor Talks and Francisco Franco....still dead

The Four Greatest Words in the English Language

2011-02-13T22:49:00.003-05:00

"Pitchers and Catchers Report"

Happy spring, everybody!

Big 10 - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2011

2011-02-12T14:15:00.004-05:00

As I sit here watching the Ohio State vs. Wisconsin game, I figure it's only suitable to provide a look at the Big 10 this week!

Ohio State, Sag #1, kenpom offense #3, kenpom defense #2, 1st in conference at 11-0, 24-0
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Florida, Fla. St, Purdue, Minnesota
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: None
3P% - 40.4%, Reb. Margin = +5.2, FT 68.5%, FG 49.6%, Opp. FG 41.5% –
Led by J. Sullinger (6'9" freshman 18 ppg, 10.2 reb, 56.8% FG%) and Buford (6'5" junior, 13.6ppg, 44% 3p%) and 5th-year senior Lighty (6'5", 12.5 ppg, 40.7% 3p%), and Diebler (6'6" senior, 11.2 ppg, 48% 3p% ). Perhaps more importantly, backup? freshman PG Aaron Craft has been sensational (4.6 assists, 28minutes per game). This team has been #1 and is highly regarded, and its the team I follow, so I will be keeping my eye on them all season long. Having a top-5 NBA talent in Sullinger (who is a bona fide PF, with back-to-the-basket moves) along with all of these 3 -point shooters makes OSU extremely dangerous. They also have another big body in Lauderdale, so its not like Sullinger can be complely focused on.

Wisconsin, Sag #11, kenpom offense #1, kenpom defense #36, 2nd in conference at 8-3, 18-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Marquette, Boston College, Illinois (split), Purdue, Minnesota
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UNLV, Notre Dame, Illinois (split), Mich St (split), Penn St
3P% - 37.7%, Reb. Margin = +3.9, FT 82.9% (that's amazing!), FG 44.6%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
Led by Jon Leuer (6'10" SENIOR, 19.4 ppg, 7.4 rebs, 44% 3point, 48% FG%) and Jordan Taylor (6'1" junior, 17.7 ppg, 4.7 assists, 41% 3p%). This Jon Leuer is awesome. The team doesn't rebound as great as most Wisconsin teams. What gives me some pause about this team are the losses to UNLV and Notre Dame, meaning they lost their toughest games out of conference.

Purdue, Sag #9, kenpom offense #20, kenpom defense #10, 2nd in conference at 8-3, 19-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Va. Tech, Alabama, Minnesota (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Richmond, W. Va., Minnesota (split), Ohio St, Wisconsin
3P% - 38.4%, Reb. Margin = +2.6, FT 71.7%, FG 45.4%, Opp. FG 41.3% –
If only Robbie Hummel was healthy... the other senior stars on this team (6'10" senior - JaJuan Johnson - 20.6 ppg, 7.6 rebs, 50% FG%; 6'4" senior - E'Twaun Moore - 17.8 ppg, 5.6 rbs, 39% 3pt) are fantastic. This team could be dangerous in the tourney... but probably nothing more than a sweet 16 appearance.

Illinois, Sag #24, kenpom offense #27, kenpom defense #17, 4th in conference at 6-5, 16-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Maryland, UNC, Gonzaga, Wisconsin,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Texas (in OT), Ill-Chicago!, Missouri, Penn St, Indiana, Northwestern
3P% - 40.4%, Reb. Margin = +2.1, FT 72.8%, FG 46.8%, Opp. FG 39.6% –
This team has been more Jekyl and Hyde then most. One atrocious loss (Ill-Chicago!), an awesome win (UNC), and a close call (Texas). I saw their star player against OSU (6'3" senior - G Demetri McCarney 14.8ppg, 6.6 assists, 3 TOs, 47.6% 3pt%) but he got outclassed by the freshman PG Craft and the OSU defense. Mike Davis (6'9" senior - 11.5ppg, 6.8 rebs, 52% FG%) also is the other main contributor then they have 4 guys between 8 and 9 ppg.

Michigan State, Sag #40, kenpom offense #49, kenpom defense #58, 5th in conference at 6-6, 14-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Washington, Wisconsin,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UConn, Duke, Syracuse, Texas, Penn St, IOWA!
3P% - 36.1%, Reb. Margin = +3.8, FT 68.9% , FG 44.0%, Opp. FG 42.9% –
PG Kore Luciuos has been kicked off the team. The team has gone from being ranked #2 in the nation at the start of the season (since they were returning everyone from last year's final 4 team), to being barely above .500 and in serious danger of not making the tourney. They are still led by Kalin Lucas (6'1" senior - 16.2 ppg, 3.5 assists, 40.7% 3p); Draymond Green (6'7" junior - 13.2 ppg, 8.5 rebs, 4.2 assists, 38.8% 3p); Durrell Summers (6'5" senior - 13.2 ppg, 4.3 rebs, 37.8% 3p%). I honestly don't know what to make of this team after all of the awful performances... in past years, Michigan State would snag a 10-seed and still make a run to the elite 8... then there wer other years they'd get bounced in the 1st round in that situation. Your guess is as good as mine on this.

Minnesota, Sag #35, kenpom offense #40, kenpom defense #72, 6th in conference at 5-7, 16-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNC, W. Va, Purdue (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Virginia, Indian, Mich St,
3P% - 32.9%, Reb. Margin = +5.0, FT 64.9%, FG 46.1%, Opp. FG 39.7% –
What started as a promising season for Minnesota, has become unraveled due to injuries. Starting senior PG Al Nolen broke his foot and had surgery, and is just praying he returns for the tournament. His backup just happened to transfer earlier in the season... meaning freshmen are now manning the PG spot (and not playing well). The team is led by Hoffarber (6'4" senior - 14 ppg, 3.9 assists, 39.6% 3p); Mbakwe (6'8" junior - 13.2ppg, 10.6 rebs, 61% FG%); D. Joseph (6'4" junior - 11ppg, 38% 3p).

Penn State, Sag #73, kenpom offense #31, kenpom defense #129, 6th in conference at 5-7, 12-11
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Illinois, Wisconsin
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Ole Miss, Maine, Michigan (twice), Va. Tech, Maryland
3P% - 31.8%, Reb. Margin = +1.6, FT 72.4%, FG 43.0%, Opp. FG 44.0% –
I thought at the beginning of big 10 season they might have a chance to squeak out a bid. I know now from looking at their profile, it ain't going to hapen short of a miraculous run to end the season.

Conclusion
For the Big 10 to have 6 bids now, Minnesota needs to survive without their PG, and Michigan state needs to get some wins. For Penn State to grab an unreal SEVENTH bid, EVERYTHING would have to go right. I'd keep an eye on the inconsistent Illinois, and I'm not sure how far Wisconsin can actually go.

I Couldn't Agree More

2011-02-10T17:23:00.001-05:00

Normally I'd never agree with anything that comes out of the mouth of a member of the White Sox but, in this instance, LHP Mark Buehrle speaks for me.

Mark, I couldn't have said it any better myself.

MMBSD: Super Bowl Thoughts

2011-02-07T08:39:00.001-05:00

Well as always one last Monday Morning Back Seat Driver before we go on vacation. Here's some quick thoughts from the Super Bowl

1. Turnovers were really the difference. The Pick-6 and the momentum changing fumble were huge. It's a very different game without either of those plays let alone both. I realize that's a trite statement but that doesn't change the accouracy of it.

2. That said the Packers left a bunch of plays out on the field. Dropped balls made it much a closer game and frankly seemed to suck the life out of the Packer's 3rd Quarter offense.

3. Aaron Rogers has any many Super Bowl wins as Favre. It just feels good to type that.

4. Black Eyed Peas really sucked.

5. No - I mean really sucked....

6. Favorite commercial --- probably a toss up between the flying pug, the kid dressed as Darth Vader, and the dogs playing poker.

7. Assuming we have football again...it'll be interesting to see where the Packers go from here. It appears (and I could be wrong) that the AFC has had far more stability among its elite than the NFC. Can the Packers stay on top or will the volatility continue? With an elite QB and Dom Capers...signs point to yes...

National Signing Day

2011-02-02T22:27:00.004-05:00

Well the signings are in and here are the findings outside of the usual south dominates yadda yadda yadda.

The top classes are generally considered some combination of USC, Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, and Ohio State.

Surprises and Notables

USC had a class of 31. This might be surprising as NCAA rules dictate schools are limited to 25 per year and USC due to sanctions 15. Well per usual USC cheats as the ongoing appeal process means USC can skirt the rule (although next year they might really be limited as the sanctions would become retroactive). In the meantime one wonders what Lane Kiffin says to these kids
Florida State crushed Florida/Miami in the state of Florida. Whether it was the coaching turmoil, Jimbo Fisher, or the new coaches Florida/Miami didn't crack the top 20 for the first time in forever while FSU was consensus top 3.
Two teams that were crappy but cleaned up in state (how often do I say recruiting is local) were Texas and Georgia.
Notre Dame pulled in a top 10 class and probably more importantly the consensus best defensive line prospects in the country. It obviously remains to be seen if the wins can match the recruiting scores but no drop off without Weis.

Big 10
tOSU dominated the Big 10 with the only school close in terms of recruiting was Nebraska. No other Big 10 cracked the top 25.

Names to Remember
Jeff Driskel - #1 QB in the country heading to Florida
Isiah Crowell - #1 RB in the country heading to Georgia
Curtis Grant #1 LB in the country heading to Ohio State

and
Jadevon Crowley - #1 Player in the country - currently undecided but probably South Carolina

You Stay Classy San Diego

2011-02-02T12:30:00.000-05:00

In honor of tons of snow, temperatures that border on the Hoth levels (Yesterday my Tauntaun coming in to work did not make it past the first outer marker, so I had to stay at Echo Base) and of course National Signing Day,

http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2011/02/ohio_state_recruit_chris_kenne.html

Super Bowl Preview: Defeating Mr. Glass

2011-02-01T21:11:00.002-05:00

Super Bowl week is a joyous time of the year for every American. It’s a time to eat heavily, drink heavily, and refuse to go to the bathroom during the commercials. It’s also a time of the year, where recently, I’ve enjoyed comparing head coaches to other fictional characters. It started in 2006, with Sgt. Slaughter (Cowher) vs. Colonel Mustard (Mike Holmgren) and continued in 2007 with McDowell’s, the dad from Coming to America (Lovey Smith). In 2008, I pointed out that Bill Belichick is a Sith Lord. In 2009, I just said that Nobody beat the Whiz (Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt) except on Super Bowl Sunday. And in 2010, I realized that Colts- Saints was Good Guy vs. Good guy (at least f or me) and was like Hulk Hogan vs. Ultimate Warrior.

Which leads me to the most important question of this week:

When will LB James Harrison wake up and scream out, "What have I done?" and realize that he is in fact a super-villain?
James Harrison has always been a ferocious tackler. Nothing wrong with being intense and tough. HOWEVER, there is something wrong with head-hunting and being so reckless that you are injuring others all of the time with no regard for human life.

In October, things reached a new low, for Harrison, as he victimized two Cleveland Browns players in a span of 5 minutes. After being fined heavily, Harrison threatened retirement because:
"How can I continue to play this game the way that I’ve been taught to play this game since I was 10 years old?” “And now you’re telling me that everything that they’ve taught me from that time on, for the last 20-plus years, is not the way you’re supposed to play the game anymore. If that’s the case, I can’t play by those rules. You’re handicapping me."

If there was ever a closer moment to some innocent person realizing they are in fact evil, I can't think of it. Actually Harrison you're not the one being "handicapped" here, it's the players you are tackling in a dirty manner who have the most danger of being handicapped.

After wracking my brain, I realized who Harrison has become... it's Mr. Glass from Unbreakable. Mr. Glass, played by Samuel L. Jackson, (***SPOILER ALERT) honestly believed he was doing good, by searching for a superhero. Of course, Mr. Glass ended up causing a number of disasters himself and became so enfatuated with his childhood fantasy of finding a superhero.... he didn't realize that he himself had become the supervillain. And just like the end of Unbreakable:
Elijah: "... And then one day I see a news report on a train accident and its sole survivor who was miraculously unharmed. And just like that, an idea blossoms into the flower of possible reality."
"A person they believed was put here to protect the rest of us. Guard us..."

...Now that we know who you are, I know who I am. I'm not a mistake! It all makes sense! In a comic, you know how you can tell who the arch-villain's going to be? He's the exact opposite of the hero. And most times they're friends, like you and me! I should've known way back when..."

Harrison should know too... in that in his efforts to be a great defensive player he has also become the "exact opposite of a hero."

Game Analysis
Pittsburgh - Offense = 14th in yards per game; Defense =2nd in yards per game
Green Bay - Offense = 9th in yards per game; Defense = 5th in yards per game

Similar games - Pittsburgh played New Orleans back in week 8 and lost 10-20. The Steelers were stopped on a goal-line stand and on a 4th-down play in Saints territory. However, the Steelers also gave up a couple of long plays to Saints receivers, which overcame an early turnover by the Saints. The Steelers also lost to New England 26-39. The score was 29-10 with 8 minutes to play before a flurry of scoring by both sides.

For Green Bay, I'm not sure if they really played a team like Pittsburgh. Granted, it's hard for me to compare teams to Pittsburgh. Perhaps the Atlanta Falcons? They lost 17-20 to the Falcons during the season but slaughtered them 48-21 during the postseason.

I think the games by Pittsburgh illustrate one thing that has been true, and was also true during Pittsburgh's Super Bowl season in 2008 (when Polamalu was healthy)... their defense is susceptible to passing teams with great WRs. Hell, the Steelers barely survived against the underdog Cardinals mainly because of WR Larry Fitzgerald. I don't really believe that the Steelers are going to be able to prepare for the size and speed of Greg Jennings... AND the other WRs which are all top-notch. This is probably the best bunch of WRs the Steelers are facing all season.

All in all though, I'm very excited about this Super Bowl. Green Bay may have been the 6th seed, but this has been a fantastic team the last couple of seasons and they are absolutely stacked on both sides of the ball. Obviously, the Steelers are a well-oiled machine. This game can go either way based on a number of different factors, but I believe that the skill of the Green Bay WRs will result in the Packers' victory. Despite my analysis, the people at EA sports ran their simulation on Madden, and sadly Mr. Glass triumphs there.

Final Prediction
Green Bay 24, Steelers 17; Mr. Glass will hopefully not be celebrating this year. I hope Madden is wrong!

Finally, A Plea for Another Federal Holiday (first posted this in 2006)
Finally, I’m still shocked out how no political party in America has begun a campaign to make the day after the Super Bowl a national holiday. Honestly, this has to be one of the least productive days of the year, as most people on the East Coast are either tired, hungover, or have indigestion and bowel problems. You could even just call this day “American New Year’s,” and then not change the year until after the Super Bowl. This would ensure that when someone says “the 2005 Super Bowl” they were referring to Seattle-Pittsburgh and not New England-Philadelphia. This would also reduce the amount of violence in America, because no longer would disagreements occur about which specific year belongs to which specific NFL season.

Last week: 2-0
Playoffs: 6-4 (that sucks, I hope I can nail this super bowl).
Super Bowl prediction record (since 2005): 4-2 (missed the Saints and the Giants)

MMBSD: Super Bowl Week

2011-01-30T17:39:00.003-05:00

Well one more week of football for possibly a long time. So might as well as enjoy it while you can.

Random Superbowl Thoughts:
1) I'll give my prediction later in the week but a player I think might end up making a big difference that people aren't talking about it Heath Miller - Steelers TE. The Packers have had trouble covering TEs this year and Miller is among the best in the league.

2) Don't underestimate the loss of Pouncey to the Steelers. The Packers' D is similar to Pittsburgh of having a variety of looks and blitz schemes and it had been the Pro Bowler's duties to make the o-line calls .

3) There are rumors floating that Heinz Ward will retire after the Super Bowl.

Random NFL Thoughts
1) Someone has to say it so I will Bud Adams, owner of the Titans is a crazy old man. Maybe not Al Davis crazy but certainly get off my lawn crazy. I'm not criticizing getting rid of Jeff Fisher. Well maybe a little. but how in the world is the timing defensible? It's just not...

Random NCAA Basketball Thoughts

1) What to make of St. John's win over Duke? Well at a fundamental level it helps the Big East get extra bids for the tourney and hurts the ACC (although at this point its kind of at the margins). Duke has already been exposed to be vulnerable without their star freshman PG. Which leaves a big question mark on how the win (now #3 over ranked opponents for Steve Lavin) influences St. John's potential return to Big East powerhouse? Not sure but we'll see pretty quickly how it affects recruiting.

2) The only other team beside Duke in the ACC that might make some tournament waves is UNC. UNC is slowly improving led by two freshmen who have not lived up their billings...yet. While the headliner is Harold Barnes...the PG Marshall will be equally important to how far they can go.

3) tOSU still undefeated. At this stage it's pretty easy to say this is the best offensive team that Thad Matta has put together.

Big 12 - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2010

2011-01-26T21:00:00.003-05:00

This is the odd week off before the Super Bow. So... I'm going to finally start posting info on some of the NCAA-worthy teams from the Big 12 this week, then in the coming weeks I'll tackle the Big East, Big Ten, and then a Pot-Luck focusing on A-10, SEC, PAC-10, and the Mountain West, and some randoms.

Kansas, Sag #2, kenpom offense #13, kenpom defense #4, 2nd in conference at 4-1, 19-1
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UCLA, Arizona, Memphis, USC (surprisingly, pretty weak!, plus a lot of close wins over Michigan and Nebraska)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Texas
3P% - 37.3%, Reb. Margin = +7.3, FT 67.1% (that's low!), FG 51.4%, Opp. FG 38.5% –
Led by Marcus Morris (6'9" junior 17ppg, 6.8 rebs, 59.7% FG%) and twin brother Markief Morris (6'10" junior, 12.6ppg, 8.6 rebs, 55.9% FG%). Freshman Josh Selby has only played in 11 games so far, with mixed results (11.8 ppg, 3 assts, 2.9 turnovers, 40% 3pt). This team has been #1 and is highly regarded, but I'm not sold on them... we will have to see what they do when they start facing the rest of the big 12.

Texas, Sag #6, kenpom offense #26, kenpom defense #1, 1st in conference at 4-0, 16-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Illinois, UNC, Mich St, Texas A&M, Kansas
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Pitt, USC, UConn
3P% - 37.9%, Reb. Margin = +7.4, FT 66.1% (that's awful!), FG 46.0%, Opp. FG 37.0% –
Jordan Hamilton leads the team (6'7" junior, 19.5ppg, 7.2 rebs, 41.7% 3pt, 47% FG%). Two other forwards lead the team (T. Thompson 6'8" freshman, 13.1ppg, 7.6 rebs, and Gary Johnson 6'6" senior, 11.8 ppg, 6.9 rebs). They played a killer schedule and already won in Kansas. I like this team... except they have a freshman PG (Cory Joseph) and they may be deferring to Jordan Hamilton a little too much. Being ranked #1 in defense by ken-pom is certainly a great attribute (and surprising too).

Texas A&M, Sag #19, kenpom offense #34, kenpom defense #46, 2nd in conference at 4-1, 17-2
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Temple, Washington (by 1), Missouri
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Boston College, Texas
3P% - 35.7%, Reb. Margin = +10.5, FT 72.4%, FG 45.1%, Opp. FG 39.9% –
A balanced scoring attack, led by only one player, Krhis Middleton (6'7" sophomore, 15.9 ppg, 4.8 rebs, 40% 3p%, 49% FG%). What's bizzare about this team? No one over 6'8" plays many minutes... but they are a great rebounding team. Can't tell if it's the schedule, or what's going on. A team to check back with as the season progresses.

Missouri, Sag #20, kenpom offense #27, kenpom defense #29, 4th in conference at 3-2, 17-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Vanderbilt, Illinois, Old Dominion,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Georgetown, Colorado, Texas A&M
3P% - 38.2%, Reb. Margin = +1.6, FT 71.1%, FG 47.5%, Opp. FG 40.9% –
They have yet to play Texas or Kansas (twice), so we will soon see how tough they really are. I always love the Missouri coach, who plays the "40 minutes of hell" style as a disciple of Nolan Richardson. He used to be the coach at UAB (and was the coach when they shocked #1 Kentucky in the 2nd round). The team is led by Marcus Denmon (6'3" jr, 17.2ppg, 4 reb, 49.1% 3pointers!), and two bigs in Ricardo Ratliffe (6'8" junior, 11.8 ppg, 7 rebs, 1.6 blocks) and Laurence Bowers (6'8" junior, 11.4 ppg, 6.2 rebs, 2.2 blocks). The ppg is Michael Dixson (6'1" sophomore, 4.6 assists, 2 turnovers, 19.9 ppg, 38% 3p%). We will have to see how they do in conference play. 40 minutes of hell works with the right players, no doubt.

Kansas State, Sag #41, kenpom offense #87, kenpom defense #33, 10th in conference at 2-4, 14-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Va. Tech, Gonzaga, Baylor?
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Duke, Florida, UNLV, Ok St, Colorado, Missouri, Texas A&M
3P% - 36.6%, Reb. Margin = +8.8, FT 60.6% (really!), FG 43.8%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
This team has annoyed me. I enjoyed their run to the Elite 8 last year... but they lost one of the two major backcourt players behind that push. They've been a mess and have dug a deep hole for themselves... especially considering the expectations that they were in the top-3 in the conference. Jacob Pullen has been shooting awful this year (6'0" senior, 17.9 ppg, 2.8 turnovers, 3.5 assists, 32% 3pointeers, 41% 3p%). Rodney McGruder is their next best contributor (6'4" sophomore, 11.2 ppg, 6.7 rebs, 40.5% 3pt). He should shoot more, especially with Pullen screwing things up. Alot of players log minutes, resulting in a big rebounding advantage. Two 6'8 guys, a 6'9 guy, and a 6'10" guy. They have depth... but the offense is still a mess with Pullen shooting way too much.

Way too Early Look at the Big 10 For 2011

2011-01-25T21:22:00.003-05:00

Last week I noted that really none of the Big 10 teams have a great chance at a national championship run. I stand by that but here's a little food for thought on why that might be the case.

Nebraska - Nebraska returns a powerful defense led by the D line. However the offense loses 6 starters (including 3 o-linemen), faces real defenses (as opposed to the Big 12 versions), and has a QB and a coach at odds with one another. Factor in probably the toughest Big 10 schedule and it's hard to imagine an undefeated season.

Ohio State - The Buckeyes also lose a lot. Even ignoring the 5 starters sitting for the first 4-5 games, tOSU will have to replace 7 starters on D. The biggest question is who will be the starter while TP sits. The Buckeyes have to face @Miami and MSU while they have the suspended players sit.

Wisconsin - Wisconsin will have to replace the heart of their offense in they lose their QB, RB, and best 3 o-linemen. However Wisconsin seems to never miss a beat running the ball so the question is will they have any kind of threat passing.

Michigan State - MSU took a huge step forward during the regular season before being embaressed by Alabama. The biggest loss is all everything Greg Jones who led the team in tackles the past 4 years. Beyond that a lot of losses on the o-line. Can anyone really predict what the Spartans will do next year?

Hokemania - No Big 10 returns as many starters as TTUN. 9 starters on offense (including Shoelaces) and 7 on defense (including best d-linemen in the league next year Mike Martin). However the Wolverines have a long way to go to reach contender status and sometimes players take awhile to adjust to a new coaching staff/schemes.

Iowa - Iowa really get's gutted. They lose first rounder Clayborn, their QB, their RB, both WRs, and a slew of defensive players. And now 12 players were hospitalized for exertional rhabdomyolysis and yes there will be an investigation over that one.

Penn State - Had a disappointing 7-5 season and loses their best 3 o-lineman. The biggest question is the QB position will it be the former walk-on McGloin or the uber-heralded Boldin at QB. And will either actually be good?

So in summary can you pick out the favorite? I can't.....

And then there were 2

2011-01-23T22:54:00.002-05:00

There's going to be a common theme here in the two games were two teams get out to large leads and then hold on

NFL

Pittsburgh over the Jets - Yes eventually it was a game but anytime you fall behind by 24 points your really tempting the fates. The Jets did everything wrong in the first half and the Steelers nearly everything right. The tables turned in the 2nd half although the Jets clock management and odd need to run up the middle (or at least attempt) in short yardage seemed to have hamstrung them. Hidden away at the end of the game was Mendenhall's first half heroics. I think it was hard running (or bad tackling) that probably was the difference.

Packers over Bears - Similar to the late game the Packers could do no wrong at the beginning - got out to a big lead and then hung on. It's hard to evaluate when the injuries to Chicago's QBs meant in the grand scheme of things. Possibly because its unclear if there were injuries. In any event 3rd string Caleb Hanie got the Bears back into the game but also made some crucial mistakes (like throwing the ball to someone over 3 tons) . Besides that Rodgers looked great for 1 quarter but bad the final 3. I really couldn't give a firm explanation way. Where's Jaws and his film room when you need him?

NCAA Basketball
KU's almost 60 game home win streak was snapped by UT. KU went beyond cold in the 2nd half to allow the Longhorns to pull off the upset. That said KU should still be regarded as one of the best teams in the country given their depth, outside shooting, and inside defense. The Buckeyes will eventually lose given their murder row schedule and KU will immediately go back to being considered a potential #1.

The biggest game this week will probably be between undefeated #6 San Diego State and the one loss #9 BYU. BYU has player of the year candidate Jimmer Fredette (that's not a typo his first name is really Jimmer) who is averaging over 26 points and 4 assists a game. Unfortunately the game is on CBS College Sports which can only be seen by George Smith in Tuscon, Arizona.

NFL's Final Four

2011-01-20T22:50:00.004-05:00

Here we are... an unexpected final 4 for the NFL!

Jets @ Pitt - These are two of my least favorite teams. However, despite my personal hatred, these two teams have been among the best all season long (along with the Ravens and the Patriots who lost last week). I think one of the more interesting things about this matchup is how the Steelers dealt WR Santonio Holmes away due to his behavior problems... but he's on the Jets now. I think Santonio Holmes is destined to have a superb game against his old team. However, in the end, I unfortunately believe that the Steelers homefield advantage will be too much to overcome, resulting in the Steelers going to yet another Super Bowl. Gag me.
Pick: Pitt

Packers @ Bears - Well, the Bears keep marching on. Here they are, amongst the final 4, due to a stunning turn of events (i.e. the Eagles losing to the Vikings at the end of the season, giving the Bears homefield, then the 7-9 Seahawks beating the Saints and going to Chicago to get pummeled). I haven't taken the Bears seriously all season. It's like I have a mental block. So... this week, we will compare stats to see if I'm in any way justified for not taking them seriously.
Offense:
Packers: 9th in yards per game (358.1 ypg)
Bears: 30th in yards per game (289.4 ypg)
Defense:
Packers: 5th in yards per game allowed (309.1 ypg)
Bears: 9th in yards per game allowed (314.3 ypg)

Turnovers:
Packers: +10
Bears: +4

Punt Returns:
Bears: 1st (17.1 avg - Hester)
Packers: 20th (7.9 avg)

KO Returns:
Bears: 2nd (26.5 avg)
Packers: 25th (20.1 avg)

So... the Bears are awesome in special teams... and suck in most everything else.

Pick: Packers

Looking Ahead to 2011 College Football

2011-01-20T07:07:00.000-05:00

With looming NFL and NBA lock outs it may well be that the only sport to follow this Fall will be college football. Preseason/first week rankings are a silly silly excercise but a little crystal ball viewing of potential contenders to the Mythical Championship game well that's just the kind of stupidity I can embrace:

Potential Contenders

The SEC
LSU/Alabama.
At this point right or wrong the SEC with it's structural advantages (cheating cough cough) basically has a lock on one of the two spots in the championship game. Which brings us to link Saban and Saban's ex-squad. Both have good defenses that return just about everyone. Both have questions at QB. Can LSU's Jefferson become more consistent? Can the hyped AJ McCarron replace the departing senior McElroy? That said the SEC East is weak so that leaves LSU/Alabama to claim the South's automatic bid.

The Teflon
Oregon/Oklahoma
Both Oregon and Oklahoma have been frankly awful in big bowl games. Yes OU snapped it's 5 game losing streak by beating UConn but does that really count? Oregon now has a 2 game losing streak in big bowls. Both though return all of their key offensive players, should be highly ranked and frankly don't have more than 2 tough games.

The Coupled
TCU/Boise State

It's odd to think that these two programs are so linked that you almost can't say one without the other. This is the last year we can do that as TCU moves on to the Big East next year. However for one year the perennial super powered non-BCS will face each other in the regular season. Boise also has it's BIG NON-Conference Game. This time against Georgia.

Odds and Ends
Stanford/FSU

Stanford loses it's coach and a ton of offensive lineman but Andrew Luck should keep them in the spotlight. FSU loses Christian Ponder but Jimbo Fisher seems to have them pointed in the right direction. With the ACC and Florida on the fritz FSU could use the moment of weakness to leap back into the national contender spotlight.

You'll note I didn't include any Big 10 team. Looking like a down year for the Big 10 overall. I'll spotlight the Big 10 next week....

The Northern Hair Club for Men

2011-01-19T10:14:00.004-05:00

Well it seems that the Michigan Wolverines have rounded out their coordinators. There is still talk about whether they will bring in an QB coach and they still need a DL and DB coach. Here are two guys.

Al Borges

He was at SDSU with Hoke the past couple of years and before that was the O-Coordinator at Auburn during the Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Jason Campbell Era. He runs a West Coast (or Gulf Coast) offense that should be interesting to see how Denard Robinson fares in it. My guess is that Denard is going to spend all of his off time throwing the ball and working on his accuracy. I am happy that Denard is sticking around because he seems like a good kid who loves the University. I would imagine that if he was hoping to play QB in the NFL then he is going to need to fine tune his passing ability and be a scrambling QB ala Michael Vick, Steve Young, Jeff Garcia etc. He is about the same size as all three of those guys. Hopefully Borges can work with him and use their trough of RB more often in the offense to make him less injury prone.

Greg Mattison

Another Greg, or as many UM's have said, Gurg. All of us AEPiers know a far more famous Gurg but that is beside the point . I think this is one of the more important UM hires, since he was taken from the much hated Baltimore Ravens. This guy was at UM from 1995-1996, coached under Jack Harbaugh at Western Michigan along with Hoke and the other Harbaughs. He left for Notre Dame, which caused a major rift at Michigan but supposedly he went there so that his kids could get a free education (it being a private school). I wouldn't blame him for leaving to coach at a school where your kids can get free schooling. He was the D-Coordinator at Florida during their National Championship, so he has beaten OSU more than any of the previous coaches. He went to coach the linebackers at Baltimore (who I hear are pretty good) and then became D Coordinator after Rex Ryan went to the Jets. My guess is he is going to bring in a very tough, don't put up with anything, knock the crap out of you style of play that Michigan has lacked for a while. He might actually coach the defense how to tackle. Not sure if he will bring in a 3-4 D, especially since UM doesn't have have strong linebackers.

I like both of these picks, especially Mattison. Both guys are in their early 60s and have been coordinators most of their life so they probably won't be flight risks to other schools for head coaching jobs. I have a feeling that they will stay with UM for their careers. I think that Mattison will help with recruiting, especially linebackers. He can say, I helped coach one of the best linebackers in the history of football (I cringe to say it, but it is true) and you can be the next Ray Lewis.

MMBSD: Divisional Playoffs

2011-01-17T07:26:00.000-05:00

NFL
Well the group of 4 by in large lived up to the billings. We asked who were the best teams in the league and by weekends end the answer was pretty clear. Or at least theoretically

1) Green Bay Dominated Atlanta - Aaron Rogers, who once upon the time dropped like a rock in the draft, sliced and diced Atlanta's D while Mattie Ice looked pedestrian at best. I'm not entirely sure where Atlanta goes after a loss like that. Green Bay was hyped as a Super Bowl contender at the start of the year and they are rounding into shape.

2) Chicago steamrolled Seattle - Ignore the final score...this game wasn't that close. By the the time Seattle woke up the game was out of reach. It will go down as either one of the great mysteries or disappointments how New Orleans lost to this Seattle team. Just perplexed.

3) Jets beat the Pats - Fatty McFatster waddled his Jets to victory. The Patriots couldn't get their offense rolling until later. I think a bigger thing is that the Patriots made a ton of uncharacteristic mistakes. 66 yards of penalties, a Brady INT, dropped passes, Belichek pooped on the sideline. Not sure if the week off hurt the Patriots, the Jets got in their head, the position of Mars/Jupiter but this was a very sloppy Pats team.

4) Roethlisberger Defeats Karma- You'd think at some point Karma would catch up to Roethlisberger. My head still hurts when people say Ben led the Steelers to two super bowls. Theoretically that's correct but I don't think I've ever seen as bad of QBing on a winning team by Roethsliberger in a Super Bowl ever. Nonetheless Roethslisberger has the Ravens and Karma's number and he's moving on.

At the end of the day we have 2 very physical games awaiting us for the Championship. And if your me you hate both of the teams in the AFC.
College Basketball
As MMBSD pivots to college basketball season it's time to check in with the new #1 team in the country. Ohio State...better known around these parts as the Mattavests. Yes Jared Sullinger is that good. I dare anyone to remember a better Freshman low post player in the past decade, As important but under the radar is Freshman PG Aaron Craft. He's outside shooting, playmaking and defense are actually just as important as Sullinger's command of the low post.

The other major conference undefeated team is Kansas. For those unaware Kansas has won 69 straight games at home (that's not a joke btw but yes I giggled at that fact). KU is also led by the Morris twin brothers (Marcus and Markieff). The 6'9 forwards are scoring and rebounding machines. Keep on an eye on these two as they may be headed to the March Madness Finals....

Random MMBSD Gal o' Week: Melissa Satta

NFL Playoffs - 2010 Divisional Round of Rematches

2011-01-13T22:41:00.002-05:00

It's time for the divisional round... and they are all rematches... let's see what we've got:

AFC

Jets @ Pats - The Jets won in NY at the beginning of the season, and the Pats went into Cobra Kai mode and showed no mercy in beating the Jets 45-3 near the end of the season. These rubber matches where the teams have split are complete crapshoots... but I like the Patriots and the homefield advantage.
Pick: Pats

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh - These teams also split... the difference here is that these players and fans hate each other so much that they literally maim and injure each other every time they play. As a Browns fan, I despise both teams so much I can't even watch this game. I will be curious to see who wins, but the winner will probably suffer from a "winning the battle, losing the war" problem as they will be missing key players for next week. Interestingly, the Steelers beat the Ravens in 2008 and 2001 in the playoffs. Does this mean, it's the "third time is the charm?" Your guess is as good as mine.
Pick: Pittsburgh

NFC

Seahawks @ Bears - The Seahawks are going for .500! Honestly, I still don't respect the Seahawks to do anything. Yes, they beat the Saints last week, but a big key is that crazy homefield advantage they have in Seattle. They don't have that any more (short of the insane scenario of a Seahawks win and a Packers win). The Bears fans have to be loving this draw. Thank the Eagles for blowing that game against Minnesota at the end of the season.
Pick: Bears

Green Bay @ Falcons - This is the game of the week. A game that I've been drooling over. Great offenses, great defenses, teams that both deserve to go far. The Falcons edged out Green Bay during the season by a field goal, and anything is possible in the dome (which should also benefit the speed of Greg Jennings). Soon, we shall see if that Green Bay running game is for real... I still like the Falcons to hold serve in this one.
Pick: Falcons

Last week: 2-2 (missed the Seahawks epic win, and missed the Packers over the Eagles)

An Open Letter to the New York Jets

2011-01-13T10:37:00.005-05:00

Dear New York Jets,

Please shut the F up. Do you know how hard it is to get the rest of the country to cheer for New England? And yet you're making it very easy for us to root for Brady & Co. to stomp you like they did in your last meeting.

So shut your pieholes and focus on getting ready for the game. Your jobs are to play football, not to run your mouths.

Sincerely,

NFL Fans Everywhere

When It Comes Crashing Down and It Hurts Inside

2011-01-11T15:42:00.005-05:00

Gotta Take A Stand And It Don't Help to Hide,

Well you Hurt My Friends and You Hurt My Pride

I Gotta Be a Man, I Can't Let It Slide...

Hoke-A-Mania is going to run wild on you.

I can just see the next OSU/UM game before the game Hoke runs down the Big House steps to the Vest has Denard Robinson give Tressel the Irish Whip to the big boot by Hoke and then runs and gives the big leg drop. Then Hoke runs to the end zone, puts his hand to his ear, then runs to the next end zone and puts his hand to his ear.

This would make recruits come to UM in a heartbeat.

Say Hello To the New Boss,

2011-01-11T08:17:00.002-05:00

Same as the old one. Another year another Mythical championship goes to the SEC. At this point even the most partisian non-SEC have to admit that the combination of demographics, resources, institutional advantages (over-signing, lower admission standards, medical hardship usage to free up roster spots,) gives the SEC an advantage that allows it to lord over the rest of College Football. Perhaps following the 2nd Northern migration things will change but until then all hail the next Southern denizen champion, Auburn.

MMBSD: NFL Playoffs in Full Swing

2011-01-09T20:30:00.001-05:00

Well in the first week of the playoffs we witnessed a series of close and sometimes surprising results. The one boring by the book game was the Ravens brutalizing the Chiefs who skated into the playoffs with the easiest schedule this side of Seattle.

Most Surprising
Goes to the Seahawks victory over the Saints. I think underplayed in all of this is how crucial the loss of Malcom Jenkins was to the Saints. The middle of the field was open all day and Hasselbeck exploited the Saints to know end. That said I'll be even more surprised if the Seahawks can win on the road

Closest
Goes to the Jets victory over Indy. Normally I hate playing the what if game and saying why one team won and another lost but the Colts usage of the timeout and decision to repeatedly run rather than pass in the red zone makes one wonder...what if the Colts went for the jugular or had decent time management.

Most Significant
In single elimination formats its always tricky (and unwise) to say something is actually significant. However the Packers usage of Starks and therefore discovery of a running game might be fairly significant. The Packers' offense has lacked a consistent ground game for a while. If the Packers are able to marry its quick strike offense with a way to manage the clock the Packers will surely be a formidable opponent for the Falcons.

College Football
Just a quick note on That Team Up North's search. Without trolling too much I'm a little surprised at the interest in Les Miles. Miles' credentials aside...the man is 57. How much longer can he coach (don't answer that JoePa) and is it a good idea bringing in a head coach that might well retire in 5-6 years (knowing that recruiting is done with a 4 year window in mind)?

NBA
Not to be conspiratorial or anything but the latest Melo to New Jersey rumors involve including Detroit in it. Why Detroit? Well Melo's agent (Leon Rose/Worldwide Wes) also represents Rip Hamilton who is rumored to be included in the New Jersey deal. Not to say the deal will happen but it seems like Worldwide Wes is making the NBA go round this days. I can't imagine David Stern is too thrilled about that.

Welcome to the 2010 NFL Playoffs!

2011-01-07T00:12:00.003-05:00

It's finally time for the NFL Playoffs!

Just for a refresher, I have a lot of bizarre NFL situations that I keep track of... let's see what applies this year:

AFC
4-KC vs 5-Baltimore - I don't consider KC to be a threat at all.
Pick: Baltimore

3-Indy vs. 6-Jets - I've been going back and forth on this for a while... but I think the Jets are going to push through only because the Colts defense is very suspect and the Colts are missing a lot of WRs.
Pick: Jets

NFC
4-Seattle vs. 5-New Orleans - Honestly, the Seahawks are a terrible team... but the homefield advantage is immense, and the Saints are without some RBs. However, I'm still picking the Saints, even though the Saints did win their one matchup during the season.
Pick: New Orleans

3-Philly vs. 6-Green Bay - This is the game that could easily be the NFC Championship game, but instead it's an opening round game! Green Bay beat Philly in week 1 by knocking out Kolb... then barely survived a Vick comeback. While this is a must-see game where anything can happen, I think Vick and the Eagels will find a way in this showdown. Plus, the Packers coach just inherently sucks in close games.
Pick: Philly

Now I’m going to pick the whole playoff tree, but I’ll be back each week to pick the matchups. So, it’s time to get to what I’m seeing in my crystal ball (which never actually happens)…

AFC
1-New England vs. 6-Jets - They split during the season, each winning at home. I just don't think the Jets have the firepower to keep pace.
Pick: New England

2-Pittsburgh vs. 5-Baltimore - Each team won on the road this year, splitting the series. The Steelers won the last game. I have no idea how you decide between these teams, but this is the year of the Harbaugh I think...
Pick: Baltimore

1-New England vs. 5-Baltimore - New England won during the season, but got destroyed last year in the playoffs. Can magic happen twice? I'm not sure.
Pick: New England

NFC
1-ATL vs. 5-New Orleans - Each team won on the road during the season. I'm not sure what's going to happen this time around. I have to think the Falcons find a way this time, especially with the Saints having injury problems at the RB position.
Pick: ATL

2-Chicago vs 3-Philly - Philly will win. I still haven't respected the Bears all season. Philly lost during the season, so it's time for some redemption!
Pick: Philly

1-ATL vs. 3-Philly - The game we've all been waiting for... Vick's magical return to ATL! In the playoffs no less! There will be a lot of fanfare with this game. I think the Eagles are best when Vick is on his game, and I think Vick will be very determined in this game to stick it to his old team.
Pick: Philly

Super Bowl
NE vs. Philly - I think the Eagles are going to shock everyone and make the Pats lose in the Super Bowl, just like in 2007.
Pick: Philly

Last Week: 13-3
Season: 159-97 (corrected for some errors)
Manwich: 10-8 (seahawks beat the rams to finish 7-9 and make the playoffs, though that's not what I picked)
Upset of the Week: 9-9 (the raiders did it! beat the chiefs to finish 6-0 in the division, and just 8-8 overall, and not qualify for the playoffs!)

Congrats To Bert Blyleven

2011-01-05T14:29:00.003-05:00

The suffering and the waiting are over! Bert Blyleven has finally made it into Cooperstown, thanks in large part to a greater awareness of sabermetrics and the internet movement to push for his enshrinement.

In honor of this happy news, I'd like to share a fantastic photo of the newest Hall of Fame righty.

All I can say is: so do I, Bert. So do I.

Ding Dong Rich is Dead

2011-01-05T13:06:00.004-05:00

So finally there has been a press conference and Rich Rod is no longer the coach of the Michigan Wolverines. I have to say that I was slightly hopefully that he would be able to come into Ann Arbor and bring his style of play to beat up on the other teams in the Big 10 and retain prominence in the Big 10. I unfortunately was incorrect, this was a cluster from the beginning. Rich Rod lead this team from ranking in the top of defense to a bottom dweller. Hopefully the new coach will be able to instill that smashmouth defensive oriented football back into the winningness football team. I don't care if it is Hoke who I actually tend to like. Not just because he looks like a combination of Bluto from Animal House and Mike Golic.

Maybe they will ask Tom Brady to come back from the Pats and be a player/coach just like Pete Rose did in 1986 or they will look to see if Gary Moeller is still available. Maybe they go to Lez Miles and throw money at him. I really just hope that they find someone that knows the Michigan tradition, wins without breaking the rules, doesn't allow players to drive around in "loaner" cars from the local car dealerships, and can beat the crap out of OSU in November. I think those are the most important characteristics for UM in the future and beyond.

On a side note, I am still waiting for the call Mr. Brandon...I will bring back Touchdown Tim Biakabatuka.

OSU Defeats Pigs, Defends Big 10

2011-01-05T06:38:00.003-05:00

In a night of emotional highs and lows, Ohio State ended up the victor over Arkansas. After probably the darkest New Year's day in the history of the Big 10, it was down to the Buckeyes. I'll be honest after the punt block I blacked out but when I came to the Buckeyes had won, Pryor was Sugar Bowl MVP, and the SEC a least for a night had to shut up about Big 10 speed. Also as a semi-follower of Kosher Laws I feel its important that people who dress like pigs should never be happy.

Virginia Tech Returns From Whence It Came

2011-01-04T06:54:00.003-05:00

Virginia Tech started the season failing on a national stage before collapsing soon after. Last night they returned to those origins of sucking when the spotlight was brightest. As bad as the ACC was , it's still hard to believe Virginia Tech went undefeated in conference play. How did they do this? I suppose ultimately it doesn't matter as V-Tech still can't beat a decent team and they will be remembered this season as the last Harbaugh's Stanford win.

Stability I Can Believe In

2011-01-03T12:00:00.002-05:00

Despite beating the Washington Redskins 17-14 and earning their 10th win of the season, the Giants still missed the playoffs after Green Bay defeated Chicago to clinch the final Wild Card berth. And as much as missing the playoffs was a self-inflicted wound for the Giants – after all, those losses to the Eagles and Packers in Weeks 15 and 16 were practically unforgivable – the Giants did what they almost always do: they decided to stay the course. Team owner John Mara’s comments:

“I’m proud of how the players battled through the injuries,” said Mara. “I think that is a testament to the coach. In this society, everybody wants to fire the coach all the time. The Yankees get knocked off in the playoffs, everybody wants to fire the manager.

“Well, we don’t do that here. He’s going to be our coach. Because I believe in the guy, I believe in stability, you can’t build anything if you are constantly making changes and firing people. That is not our culture and it is just not what we believe in. We know this guy is a good coach and we want him to lead us into next season.”

There are a lot of things wrong with the Giants. Their secondary has been a weak spot for nearly 20 consecutive seasons. They haven’t drafted an impact linebacker since unearthing Jessie Armstead in the 8th round of the 1993 draft. The offensive line has shown considerable age and attrition since reaching their high-water mark midway through the 2008 season. And, most notably, their quarterback is owed $97.5M over the next six years despite being overrated, turnover-prone and perennially disappointing. Yet, despite it all, the Giants get one thing right: they generally make smart coaching hires and they stick with coaches that do a good job.

I’m not the passionate Giants fan I was when I was a little boy but I truly appreciate that my team has smart and thoughtful owners. When I look around the NFL, very few organizations are as stable as the Giants. I can be proud of that.

MMBSD: Respawned Meme

2011-01-03T03:02:00.000-05:00

Big 10 Fail

Yes the ACC went undefeated before the SEC and the Big 10 dominated the Big 12 but the headlines everywhere the day after new years is Big 10 got destroyed. And they did. 0-5 on New Year's day. They got outscored by the SEC 138-45. The slow , over-rated, awful Big 10 meme is back. There's really not much to say about it other than every Big 10 team will have a ridiculously hard time now getting to the BCS Championship game...and will until they can win in January.....And there's really not much to say beyond that.

Eyes on Harbaugh
The hottest name in the coaching circuit could be Jim Harbaugh. The rumors are unless a NFL can woo him , Harbaugh is heading to that Team Up North (it would seem only fitting if RichRod would end up in Pittsburgh). Now I imagine if Luck returns it's possible Harbaugh would stay but I wouldn't count on it. So as soon as the Orange Bowl is finished watch the rumors and stories to fly.....

NFL Playoffs
Honestly the first round playoff matchups are yawners save for the Eagles - Packers game. The high powered offenses coupled with the inconsistent output makes the game intriguing and unpredictable. But beyond that bring on the next round of the playoffs already...

Quote of the Week
"(Ben Roethlisberger) is just as dangerous as Vick, but from a different standpoint." -- Dan Fouts, 9:48 of 3rd qtr."

Random Hottie of the Week
Umm her ... who's hanging out near my car....