John Connor Series: College Football Polling

After discussion last week on rankings I've decided to throw my hat into the ring on rankings. Skynet be damned! Humans can ultimately through intuition, hard work, and the occasional reprogrammed robot. First off there is no objective/perfect way to create a rankings. None. There's simply too little data to say really much of anything definitively when it comes to rankings we care about (top 12). That said I think I, Mighty Mike, of Semi-Sound Body and Mind can give it a try. Here are a few principals that guide my rankings

1) History is Bunk - Previous season outcomes or previous week rankings do not matter. No team is entitled to a spot - each week a team's current season performance is evaluated with no strings attached.

2) What do You Do in Games That Are Tough - The problem with determining college football rankings is the unbalanced scheduling (differing strength of schedules). For the John Connor Series beating crappy teams is not viewed better than losing to great teams. Who you beat, where you do it (home v. road), how defining is it (blowout?) focused on the big game (top 30ish). In the NFL constantly you get teams from great divisions with worse records than teams from crappy divisions - and you know what, the team with the worse record is often better. If you don't play anyone tough I can not evaluate you and therefore will push you behind teams that have accomplished something via wins over tougher competition (even if they have more losses)

3) Head to Head is Iffy - Fortunately or unfortunately you often get claims where team X beat team Y therefore team X is better. Not so fast. Often teams team Z beat team Y and team Z lost to X (the Iowa-MSU-Wisconsin trio is a good current example). As such head to head doesn't reveal a lot so while I give it some stock I do not give a hard and fast ruling.

As such here is my top 12 with reasons at the bottom (note SOS is sagarin's raw strength of schedule numbers)

Name	SOS	Best Wins			Losses
1. Auburn	72.53	LSU, SoCar, Arkansas, MissState
2. Oregon	71.48	Stanford, USC
3. Wisconsin	68.22	tOSU, Iowa			MSU
4. TCU	67.47	Baylor, Oregon State
5. Boise	66.98	V-Tech, Oregon State
6. MSU	69.97	Wisconsin, Illinois			Iowa
7. Nebraska	72.53	Missouri, Ok State			Texas
8. Alabama	71.96	Arkansas, Florida
9. Missouri	74.89	OU, Illinois			Nebraska
10. Arizona	73.59	Iowa, Cal			Oreg St
11. Stanford	73.14	USC, UCLA			Oregon
12 Ohio State	65.15	Illinois, Miami			Wiscon

1. Auburn has the most number of wins over top tier teams while Oregon has had the most decisive victories - hence I've put them in the top slots.

2. After much thinking I placed Wisconsin #3. Their 2 wins are frankly more impressive than anyone else below them and as I've stated above big wins count more than tough losses.

3. I can't really differentiate TCU and Boise other than via SOS. This week Utah will play TCU which should provide differentiation as currently I don't feel comfortable having one above the other.

4. I feel comfortable having Alabama lower than most as frankly Alabama hasn't beaten anybody good yet outside of Arkansas. Florida is their second best win and they have 3 losses. As such despite the hype until Alabama has a big win (this week against LSU) I will keep them lower than most.

5. I also feel comfortable leaving Utah out of the top 12. They're best win is Air Force. If they beat TCU then they can easily leap into the mix - until then they're an unknown.

I Will Fight You

Honestly this might be the greatest radio announcer meltdown ever.

MMBSD: Duality

Pro Football
I'm not certain if this is a college or pro story but Jake Locker - he of #1 prospect by Todd McShay - had about 70 yards passing and 2 INTs in a shutout loss to Stanford. Look I'm not saying one has to be perfect but between Locker this year and last year's Jevean Snead hype McShay's #1 QB before not getting drafted I can only conclude that QB scouting just isn't in his forte. Which I assume is why he's on so much as NFL draft scouting somehow isn't in his job description of being a NFL scout.

Of all the elite teams I think the Jets have the most flaws. The offensive play calling seems erratic as does their QB. Their inability to do much of anything positive against the Packers - who had been vulnerable beforehand I think tends to place the Jets in a difficult position if they ever get behind in the playoffs.

The Rams seem to be making big strides lately. From the worst team in the league the Rams seem to have reached a level of competiveness. The difference is obviously Sam Bradford. Even when Jackson has a mediocore day (59 yards) the Rams are still able to win. Simply more evidence this is a QB league now.

College Football
It seems fitting that Auburn and Oregon would pretty much end disagreements or doubts on their trajectory on the same day. Both had games in which upsets were semi-expected, both used the same up tempo spread option run by first time starters to crush the oppositions. Both have heisman hopefuls that chew up rushing yards like Rob Ryan at all you can eat buffet. Both now control their destiny - win and the long awaited Pac 10 v. SEC fight will come to fruition. Can anything stop their Death Star offenses?

Know Your Role Boulevard Finally got a visit from Missouri and MSU. Speaking of duality 2 schools that have had limited historic success, were coming off huge victories that fueled dreams of BCS Championships, and then had them crushed on the road versus ranked opponents. MSU still has an outside shot at winning the Big 10 but Missouri is all but dead in the water for winning in the Big 12. So much for anything can happen....

Big 10 Confusion - Iowa's shlacking of Michigan State makes it a 4 team race for the Big 10 title and a Rose Bowl Birth. Wisconsin has the easiest route...win out and either hope the BCS standings favor them or hope MSU loses again. Iowa has the toughest - win out and have Wisconsin lose again. The only thing clear tOSU @ Iowa in 3 weeks is an elimination game for 1 of them.

Other
As crazy as it sounds it's almost time for College Basketball. The first rankings are out and sigh the Dookies are still at #1. The difference this year is if Duke is to repeat they'll do with a superior backcourt. They have the best freshman PG (Kyrie Irving) in the land and Stephen Curry's younger brother (Seth) alongside 9th year seniors Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith but not a ton in the frontcourt. The Big 10 favorite is (again) Michigan State.

Rose Bowl and Non-BCSs

A question was asked earlier about the Rose Bowl and Non-BCSs. Here's the skinny

In the past, if one of the Rose Bowl's traditional opponents, the Pacific 10 Conference and Big Ten champions, was selected for the national championship game, officials could take the conference's second-place team....Starting with the 2011 game, the Rose Bowl must fill the empty slot with a non-BCS team if that team is ranked No. 12 or higher....But once the Rose Bowl takes one non-BCS team, it has fulfilled its obligation and can revert to the old rules until the current contract expires in 2014.

I believe this is because of the Rose Bowl avoidance of them in the past (i.e., the Rose Bowl is the only major without a non-BCS to play there) so in order for the Rose Bowl to continue to be a part of the BCS it needed to agree to this. So for purposes of this year if Oregon or MSU head off to the Championship game Boise or TCU or Utah will take their spot.

College Football Trend Watching : Week 7

What You Know (A Summary of the Previous Week)
I'm an idiot. I put it big letters Mizzou could knock off OU and that #1 could go down 3 straight weeks. And yet I ignored the warning signs and had OU in the BCS Championship Game. Well Mizzou won and I missed the signs. I suck. Kirk Ferentz pulled a Les Miles and doomed Iowa v. Wisconsin. Auburn's O is for real. MSU loves it's fake punts. The Orangemen are back (well they beat West Virginia)

What You Might Have Missed (Under the Radar Stories)

• Outside of FSU, not a single ACC or Big East Team has fewer than 2 losses. Pitt is the only Big East team undefeated in league play (and they've only played at max 3 games). It's been a down year for great teams in College Football which I suppose translates into Big East/ACC terms as a bad year for mediocre teams because wow...they two conferences suck.
  
• Virginia Tech left for dead after an 0-2 start has won 6 straight and sits 4-0 in conference play. However only 1 of the teams they've beaten during this streak has a winning record. That stops this week as Tech plays (theoretically) the heart of the Coastal Division err teams with winning records (Miami, UNC, G-Tech). What that means? V-Tech with a few more wins could be in a BCS bowl and get another disappointing 10 win season.
• Baylor (who incidentally was beaten by TCU) stands atop the Big 12 South Division with a 3-1 record. Yes you read that right - first place Baylor. How'd they pull it off? Well by not playing anyone. In the next 4 weeks Baylor faces Texas, T Boone Pickens University (Ok State), A&M, and Oklahoma. So don't expect Baylor to last. But how often do I get to type first place Baylor ?
  

Looking Ahead (Games of the Week)
#2 Oregon @ USC - Basically USC's bowl game. Monte Kiffin has struggled versus spread offenses. (strange but true)
# 5 MSU @ #18 Iowa - MSU's last major roadblock to the Rose Bowl and possibly the national championship
#6 Missouri @ #14 Nebraska - Winner will win the Big 12 North. Unlike MSU, if Mizzou wins they still have another tough game in the Big 12 Championship (sponsored by Snapple)

Prediction Time 10/28
Please note if it comes to a 3 way tie in the Big 10 , BCS ranking is final tie breaker (same as the Big 12). So a late loss by MSU should open the door for tOSU or Wisconsin.

BCS Championship: Oregon v. Auburn
Orange Bowl : FSU v. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. Wisconsin
Fiesta: Pittsburgh v. Nebraska
Rose Bowl: Boise State v. Michigan State

Sexy Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle will remember Mighty's predictions

Week 8 - Super-Bye Week

I still can't understand why the NFL every year has a couple of random weeks where 6 teams take bye-weeks (as opposed to the typical 4 teams). Honestly, if 4 teams take bye weeks, you can get all of the bye weeks done between weeks 4 and 12. Instead, the NFL insists on finishing a little earlier by getting some more teams in. I don't like it because it makes fantasy very difficult.

On to the games!
Manwich Matchup of the Week
Pitt @ New Orleans - Matchup of the last couple of Super Bowl Champs... I really think losing to the Browns is going to motivate the Saints to do big things this week.
Pick: New Orleans

Upset of the Week #1
Washington @ Detroit- The NFL is all about home teams being favored this week... including a 2.5 point favorite Detroit. So... I'll go with Washington.
Pick: Washington

Upset of the Week #2
Green Bay @ Jets - This Jets 5-game winning streak has got to end at some point... plus, the Packers need a statement game.
Pick: Green Bay

Opening Round Playoff Game #8
Teams that have been eliminated: Cleveland, St. Louis, Oakland, Detroit, Buffalo, Kansas City, San Fran
Denver @ San Fran- Well... these teams both have been playing awful and both had high expectations.
Pick: San Fran

Jacksonville @ Dallas- Pick: Dallas
CAR @ ST. Louis- Pick: St. Louis
Miami @ Cincy- Pick: Miami (if they win, they will be 4-0 on the road... and 0-3 at home!)
Buff @ KC- Pick: KC (the Bills will beat either Chicago or Detroit the next 2 weeks).
Tennessee @ SD- Pick: SD
Tampa @ Arizona- Pick: Tampa
Seattle @ Oakland- Pick: Seattle
Minny @ New England- Pick: New England (oooh... Randy Moss already returns to Boston!)
Houston @ Indy- Pick: Indy (revenge for that week 1 loss).

Last Week: 8-6 (back to being below-average)
Season: 59-45 ()
Manwich: 4-3 (Tampa stuck it to the Rams!)
Upset of the Week: 6-3 (I hit both Washington over Chicago and New England over San Diego!).

Skynet Championship Series: Week 2 in the Year 2010

Most underrated by the humans: Missouri (they started the season unranked), Oklahoma (still ranked very highly in the computers), Auburn, Mich St

Most overrated by the humans: Boise St, Oregon, Alabama (ranked much lower in the computers... probably because South Carolina's lost some games since beating Bama?)

2010		SCS	BCS	Sched Rnk	Harris	Coaches
1	auburn	0.71	1	16	3	3
2	missouri	1.25	6	25	8	8
3	mich st	1.79	5	55	5	5
4	tcu	3.99	4	65	4	4
5	oklahoma	4.59	9	6	11	11
6	lsu	6.28	12	21	12	13
7	boise st	7.26	3	85	2	2
8	oregon	8.24	2	119	1	1
9	wisconsin	9.71	10	82	9	9
10	utah	11.12	8	122	7	7
11	ohio st	11.19	11	62	10	10
12	bama	12.49	7	58	6	6
13	stanford	12.50	13	71	13	14
14	nebraska	13.77	14	68	14	12
15	arizona	13.83	15	50	15	16
16	florida st	13.96	16	64	16	15
17	ok st	15.89	17	66	20	20
18	iowa	18.04	18	40	17	19
19	s. carolina	18.17	20	23	19	17
20	arkansas	18.32	19	24	18	18

Are you Saner than an SEC Coach?

If that coach is Derek Dooley...the answer is yes. And I don't care who you are. The answer is always yes. I've watched the video of Tennessee's head coach Derek Dooley's press conference a few times and the number of questions I have about comparing your team to Nazis is really limitless. I'm still not sure what he said or why he said it or what drugs he's on or what drugs he should be on. Watch the video and see if you can make heads or tails of it.

"Right now we're like the Germans in World War II. Here comes the boats, they're coming. You have the binoculars, and it's like, 'Oh, my God, the invasion is coming.' That's what they did, they were in the bunkers. It's coming, they call Rommel -- they can't find Rommel. (Pretending to speak into a radio.) 'What do we do? I'm not doing anything until I get orders.' (Pretends to look through binoculars.) 'Have you gotten Rommel yet?'

"All right, and the Americans were the exact opposite. We hit the beach, and we were on the wrong spot. 'What do we do?' 'I don't know, but these guys are firing and we better hide over there and blow some stuff up to get up there.' They weren't looking for (help). That's where we've got to make that transition.

"I don't want the German people to get upset at me. I'm not attacking them, but that's what happened. You had one group, they weren't worried about what the plan was and orders and all that. When the war hits, things change. You've got to go. You had the other group, and they go, 'Wait a minute. They told us the invasion was way further north' where we had the empty tanks and we were hiding Patton out. 'We weren't ready for this, now what do we do?' 'We better wait until Rommel tells us what to do.'

"I hope I got my names right."

MMBSD: It Stinks

It's Monday which means a time to look back on the week in sports. And by look back I mean being horribly judgmental

Pro Football
The Saints - I suppose the writing should have been on the walls about the Saint. Super Bowl hangover, the curse of the NFC South, the Madden curse, some sort of voodoo curse they are all are there. For the second time in three weeks the Saints lost to a team that was anemic offensively. 2 losses when your defense gives up one offensive TD? Well the answer lies in Brees 8 INTs in the past 3 weeks (note last week he had 6 in the first 7 weeks). Of course the NFC seems to refuse to have a team step up with any level of consistency so it seems impossible to write the Saints off....Yet

Denver- The same can't be said for the Denver who I feel confident in officially writing off. It's seems like last year when Josh Mcdaniels was the toast of the NFL. And then the second half of the season happened. Yesterday Denver got annihilated 59-14 by Oakland. You should never give up 59 points in the NFL and you should never be beaten by Oakland. Those are two basic laws of the land for the past 5 odd years. If you do both you should be fired - out of a cannon. McDaniels gutted the Broncos but all he succeeded in doing was leaving a stinking corpse. Bravo. I hear KC has an opening on its staff for failed Belichek disciples ex-head coaches.


College Football
Cam Newton mania is in full go mode. Auburn is your new #1 in the BCS rankings after Auburn put up over 400 yards rushing on the previous #3 defense in the nation against the rush (formerly LSU). Newton is putting up Tebowesque heisman numbers. Actually better. Newton can achieve the yet to be achieved 2,000 2,000 club (2,000 yards passing - 2,000 yards rushing). Auburn appears to be on collision course for the biggest Iron Bowl (game against Bama) in decades. In fact it could put that rivalry back into the national consciousness (expect the ESPN hype train on why the Iron Bowl is the best rivalry ever to kick up if things stay as expected)

Utah - I try to avoid going after teams that are over-rated by the polls but Utah's case is too egregious to pass up. Yes they are undefeated but the combined record of the teams they have beaten is 14-39. The best win...against Pitt. Sorry beating awful horrible teams simply doesn't make you a viable top 10 team. Look for TCU to stomp them and hopefully put a stop to their paper tiger resume.

Big 10 Michigan State pulled off a come from behind, skin of it's teeth victory against Northwestern this past week. MSU controls its destiny ....or at least to the Rose Bowl. All that really stands in it's way is this week's game against Iowa. After that it's Minnesota (on it's 2nd coach), Purdue (on it's 3rd string QB), and Zombie PSU (brain dead version of the once proud Nittany Lions). It's hard to imagine the Spartans , who have not been to the Rose Bowl since 1966 in a BCS game, but a win at Iowa and it'll be hard not to imagine it happening.

Other
Since I'm trying to avoid the joys of the NBA and other Florida Gator alumni eventsa few notes on sports I'm enjoying

NHL - For those that have followed MMBSD over the years you're well aware of how I root for the BJs (both of the Columbus variety and more generally). Unfortunately Columbus is being, umm cock blocked, by an extremely competitive division. The Red Wings are the Red Wings, the Blackhawks despite an injury to Campbell are tough, but the team I've been most impressed with is Nashville. Despite their starting goalie being out the Predators are 3-0-1. So it's tough sledding for the Mighty BJs.

UFC - Cain Velasquez defeated Brock Lesnar to claim the UFC heavyweight title. That would be shorthand for Cain is now baddest man on the planet. What's more interesting is the marketing and demographics of this. Velasquez is a Mexican-American and UFC has hyped his ethnic heritage in hopes of hooking the boxing loving Hispanic community into the MMA world. It's also hyped towards younger demographics (18-30). While the numbers have not officially come out it's probable that more young people watched the UFC PPV than the Giants winning the pennant. Not to compare which sports are doing well or not but it seems like the growth potential of UFC is fairly impressive and has already moved from niche to mainstream.

Drama Queen

Let me state for the record that I think Pittsburgh Steelers LB James Harrison is one of the best players at his position and, perhaps, one of the best players in the entire NFL.

Let me also state for the record that I don't encourage the kinds of violent hits being discussed by the NFL this week, especially in light of all the mounting scientific evidence coming out these days about concussions and their effects on premature dementia and early-age Alzheimer's.

I understand why NFL defensive players might be wary of any rules changes that will impact the way they play the game and, more importantly, the way the league issues disciplinary action. NFL defensive players' reservations are warranted.

What isn't warranted, however, is the melodramatic posturing that James Harrison put on display yesterday with his retirement talk. Please, cut the crap. You're not retiring. You never truly considered retiring. Don't make like Brett Favre and have us beg you to grace us with your presence.

College Football Trend Watching : Week 6

What You Know (A Summary of the Previous Week)
Wisconsin plowed tOSU, Texas owns Nebraska, Cam Newton is your new heisman front runner, Oregon score 70 on it's bye week, Boise/TCU keep rolling, South Carolina hates winning 2 in a row.

What You Might Have Missed (Under the Radar Stories)

• Florida has now lost 3 games in a row. Yep Urban Meyer and the Gators followed up back to back losses with a 10-7 loss to Miss St (which apparently has a football team). The Gators are now 65th in the country in scoring. It was only 2007 when Florida went 9-4 so Meyer has a history of off years but at current pace this might be a new low for the Meyer-Florida era.
• In the Big 12 there are 2 other undefeated teams in addition to Oklahoma. Missouri and Ok State. Ok State is doing it through offense (3rd in the nation in scoring) while Missouri is doing it via defense (2nd in the nation in points against). While history has tended to show that these 2 schools fail to breakthrough - an upset of Nebraska or OU is definitely in the realm of possible
• Circle Nov 6th on the calendar - TCU and Utah face off. Both are now undefeated. Depending on the hype, circumstances, etc. at minimum it might boast one of them into a BCS game if not past Boise for the darkhorse BCS championship slot

Looking Ahead (Games of the Week)
#1 Oklahoma @ #11 Missouri... 3 straight weeks of #1s going down?
#6 LSU @ #4 Auburn... Elimination match for SEC Championship?
#13 Wisconsin @ #15 Iowa. Crucial Big 10 game

Prediction Time 10/21
With Iowa getting the homefield advantage coupled with tOSU's rash of injuries I have to put Iowa as the favorite to win. The last 2 BCS spost (currently occupied by MSU and Nebraska) are mainly place holders given the max uncertainty but here's the best guess.

BCS Championship: Oregon v. Oklahoma
Orange Bowl : FSU v. Auburn
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. Michigan State
Fiesta: West Virginia v. Nebraska
Rose Bowl: Boise State v. Iowa

Week 7 - No one has any idea what's happening!

I love how no one in the NFC is better than 4-2... meaning that every team is still well within a shot at a playoff berth. Very exciting stuff.

Bizarro Manwich Matchup of the Week
St. Louis @ Tampa - I have no idea what to make of either team... but someone is going to get their 4th win which is a lot more than I expected them to have combined at this point. Are both of these teams good? Is one of them good? Are neither of them good? I can't tell.
Pick: St. Louis (they keep losing WRs, and finding new ones to replace the old ones!)

Upset of the Week #1
Washington @ Chicago- The Redskins have been playing so well lately, even in the losses.
Pick: Washington

Upset of the Week #2
New England @ SD - This is not a good time for TE Gates, WRs Malcolm Floyd and Naanee to all be suffering injuries at the same time... for the Chargers to win they would have to get a lot of productions from WR4? (P. Crayton?) and WR5? (B. Davis?)
Pick: New England (note: SD is favored by 3 at the time of my writing this... I assume that will shrink come Sunday)

Opening Round Playoff Game #7
Teams that have been eliminated: Cleveland, St. Louis, Oakland, Detroit, Buffalo, Kansas City
San Fran @ CAR - Classic early-elimination game. The loser of this game will have 6 losses... and pretty much be out of the race!
Pick: San Fran

Pitt @ Miami- When I wrote out this game, all I could think of was the Moustache, Dave Wannstedt, who currently coaches Pitt but used to coach the Dolphins. The Dolphins are perhaps the strangest team in the league: they are 0-2 at home and 3-0 on the road. Sadly, I think they are due for another home loss!
Pick: Pitt

Cincy @ ATL- Pick: ATL

Jack@KC- Pick: KC

Philly@Tenn - Pick: Philly

Cleve @ New Orleans- I don't know who's QBing this week for the Browns, I think its McCoy again. It doesn't matter though.
Pick: New Orleans

Buff @ Baltimore- Pick: Baltimore

Ariz @ Seattle- Winner of this game gets sole possession of 1st place in the NFC West. Wow! Before we go touting the attributes of undrafted rookie starter Max Hall, let's remember that it was the defense that scored points to beat the Saints two weeks back, not Max Hall.
Pick: Seattle

Oakland @ Denver- Pick: Denver

Minny @ GB - Pick: GB

Giants @ Dallas- Honestly, the Cowboys are a complete enigma. In terms of Yards per game, they are 3rd in offense, and 4th in defense... yet they have only one win. Granted, the Giants are 7th in offense and 2nd in defense, so by that analysis, this game is a tossup. I'm going with the Cowboys, yet again, because their backs are against the wall and they can't afford another loss.
Pick: Dallas

Last Week: 9-5 (My first "good" week!)
Season: 51-39 (I screwed up last week’s standings)
Manwich: 4-2 (Pats beat the Ravens in OT)
Upset of the Week: 4-3 (I missed on ATL who got stomped on by the Eagles, and the Broncos came up just short. There goes the amazing upset start of 4-1!).

NBA Preview 2010-2011: Everyone's had a facelift

It's almost Halloween meaning... it's time for an NBA Preview to start as the season starts a week from Tuesday! Almost every team has had major changes due to a combination of teams keeping flexibility to try to hit the jackpot in NBA Free Agency.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division
3-Boston- (major moves: added Shaq, J. O'Neal, and Delonte West, lost Tony Allen)- Celtics should be able to survive the regular season with Shaq and Jermaine at center until Perkins gets back in February?
8-NJ- (major moves: added rookie PF D. Favors, SF T. Outlaw, SG A. Morrow, PF T. Murphy, PG J. Farmar, ; lost Yi, Courtney Lee, and Chris Douglas-Roberts) - I like the Nets to surprise people and make the playoffs. I think coach Avery Johnson is going to provide an immediate improvement defensively. Plus, Center Brook Lopez is very underrated. Add in the 3-point shooting of newcomers Morrow and Troy Murphy and I think this team should make the playoffs assuming PG Devin Harris starts playing in control again. And he should, because him and coach Avery Johnson are friends from their days together in Dallas.
NY- (major moves: added PF Amare Stoudemire, PG Felton, C Timo Mozgov (from Russia), SG Azubuike, PF A. Randolph, SG R. Mason, ; lost PG C. Duhon, SF A. Harrington, PF D. Lee)- I realize the Knicks got Amare and that's very exciting. However, it's hard to forecast this team. The new starting center, Mozgov, looked pretty good during the summer world championships but I couldn't tell you how good he will be once the NBA grind begins.
Philly- (major moves: added rookie SG E. Turner, C S. Hawes, SF Nocioni,; lost C Dalembert) - They dumped out Dalembert who was in his last season. It was a really dumb trade I thought... as they could have gotten a lot more for Dalembert who is a top-5 defensive center and one of the few people on the planet who was able to go toe-to-toe with Dwight Howard and actually be effective. Oh well. Should be an interesting team, assuming they keep Iguodala alongside Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner... I just think they are so soft inside with crappy centers and a past-his-prime Elton Brand that I can't forecast playoffs.
Toronto- (major moves: added SF L. Kleiza, rookie SF E. Davis, PG Barbosa, ; lost PF/C Bosh, SF/PF Turkoglu) - This is not going to be a good team. Not in the least.

Central Division
4-Chicago- (major moves: added PF Boozer, SG Brewer, SG Korver, PG CJ Watson, lost PF Hakim Warrick, C B Miller, SG Hinrich) - Boozer mysteriously broke his hand at home and no one knows exactly how. His current explanation is that "it was dark and he tripped over a gym bag, resulting in him breaking his hand." I don't believe it. You need more details for me to believe it. Like Brandon Marshall, the WR. He gave an explanation once of how he was wrestling with his brother and fell through a glass coffee table. See, that's believable! Anyways, this is a great team with PG D. Rose, Center J. Noah, PF Boozer, and SF L. Deng. Still can't matchup with Orlando as Howard owns Noah. However, against Miami??? That would be an interesting matchup if it happened in the playoffs.
6-Milwaukee- (major moves: added PF Drew Gooden, SG/SF Corey Maggette, SG Chris Douglas-Roberts) - This was a fantastic team down the stretch last season... until Bogut got injured. Bogut is back and should be ready to go. I'm not sure who will be starting and who won't be now that they added Maggette, but this team should not be taken lightly.
7-Indiana- (major moves: added PG D. Collison, rookie SG L. Stephenson, SG/SF J. Posey, lost PF T. Murphy) - Collison is a major upgrade at PG. Tyler Hansbrough is now the starting PF. Should be a much improved team based on Collison taking over at PG and in the East, this addition should be enough to get the Pacers in.
Cleveland- (major moves: added PG R. Sessions, C R. Hollins, lost Shaq, Z, LeBron, PG/SG Delonte West) - I think the Cavs will be battling for the last playoff spot all season long (assuming they don't deal out Jamison and Mo). This team is much better than the forecast everyone else is saying, i.e. this is not the worst team in the East. Not by a long shot. They should be just below .500 and hit around 40 wins because a) they are going to be running all night long in their new system under Byron Scott and b) they still have some solid players in Jamison, Varejao, Mo, JJ Hickson and super fast PG Ramon Sessions.
Detroit- (major moves: added the corpse of Tracy McGrady, lost the soulless body of Kwame Brown) - It's just an older team (Ben Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Rip Hamilton) with some players who don't play defense (Villaneuva, Ben Gordon) and then a few interesting younger players (Jerebko, R. Stuckey, W. Bynum). This is not actually a winning formula.

Southeast Division
1-Miami- (major moves: added LeBron, PF Bosh, SG Mike Miller, C Zydrunas Ilgauskas) - Yes, they have Bosh, Wade, and LeBron. Mike Miller is the best player after that. At Center, they are in trouble. It's their only weakness... but it could really only be exploited by teams that have offensive centers (i.e. Orlando and the Lakers).
2-Orlando- (major moves: added PG Duhon, SF Q. Richardson, ; lost SG/SF Matt Barnes) - Still a great team. I think they are off people's radars for some reason, but they are my pick to wreak havoc in the postseason.
5-Atlanta- (major moves: added rookie SG J. Crawford from Xavier)- Sadly, the worst decision by anyone in free agency may have been ATL's decision to sign Joe Johnson to max money. He's older and he really isn't that dominant. The Hawks will now be stuck for a while with a good team, but I'm not sure they can beat anyone in the top (heat, magic, celtics, bulls) unless they play the celtics.
Washington- (major moves: added rookie PG J. Wall, SG Hinrich, SF Yi, ; lost PG Foye, SG M. Miller) - let's not forget they got Josh Howard for Caron Butler last season, but then Howard tore his ACL 3 games in. Howard is due back in the end of November supposedly. I think they could battle for a playoff spot if Wall plays in control. I'm just not sure because he was rather erratic with his ball control at Kentucky.
Charlotte- (major moves: added PG S. Livingston, lost PG Felton, C Chandler, C Dampier) - Undersized DJ Augustin becomes the starting PG and Nazr Mohammed becomes the starting center. Major downgrades from last year (Felton, Chandler). They still have Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace but that won't be enough to make the playoffs this year.

Western Conference

Mountainous Division
3-Ok City- (major moves: added SG D. Cook, SF M. Peterson, rookie C Aldrich,) - All-World Durant plus super awesome PG Westbrook should bring a division title. Still have some questions at the other positions. Sadly, Jeff Green is a talented PF, but he's outclassed against most PFs. They got some nice play at center at the end of the season from rookie Serge Ibaka and I expect his growth to continue with nice results.
4-Portland- (major moves: added SG W. Matthews, ; lost M. Webster, J. Howard) - Marcus Camby is still prepared to be the starting center while Oden and Pryzbilla return from torn ACLs. Fantastic stacked team otherwise (Roy, Aldridge, Batum, Matthews, A. Miller).
7-Utah- (major moves: added SG R. Bell, C A. Jefferson; lost PF Boozer, SF/SG K. Korver, SG W. Matthews, C Koufos) - because this team is confusing with all of their moves, here is the new starting lineup:
PG - D. Williams, SG R. Bell , C - A. Jefferson, SF - Kirilenko, PF - Millsap. Note that Okur blew out his achilles tendon in the playoffs and probably is not returning until January. I realize they got Al Jefferson, but I'm only putting them in the playoffs, despite losing 3 major players, because Coach Sloan always finds a way to the playoffs.
Denver- (major moves: added SF A. Harrington) - I'm just going to assume Carmelo gets traded and this team ends up falling out of the playoff race.
Minnesota- (major moves: added SF M. Beasley, PG Ridnour, rookie F W. Johnson, C Darko, C Pekovic, C K. Koufos, C/PF A. Tolliver, ; lost C A. Jefferson, PG Sessions, SF Gomes) - Honestly, GM David Kahn is completely insane. Of all the trades he could have made, he swapped out Jefferson for cap savings and for K. Koufos. He could have gotten so much more! I'm not sure what the plan is for this team.

Texas Division
4-Dallas- (major moves: added C Tyson Chandler) - Dallas is a confusing team for me. They have the two of the best defensive centers in the league (Haywood and Chandler). However, they are really old! Here are the starters: PG Kidd, SG C. Butler, C Haywood, PF Dirk, SF S. Marion. I wish they had some younger players. I don't think PG Beaubois is that good because he was just awful defensively. They also still have SG Jason Terry off the bench. I'm only having them win the division by default, because Houston isn't planning on playing Yao enough during the regular season (no back-to-backs) to win enough games.
5-Houston- (major moves: added C B. Miller, SG C. Lee; lost SF/SG T. Ariza) - Well... the Ariza experiment only lasted one season. Putting Lee in the rotation is good for them though because he won't just keep shooting... and this team was able to get SG Kevin Martin at the trade deadline to score points. Yao is planning on playing but no in back-to-backs. I have no idea what will happen with Yao but that will certainly increase or decrease their win production.
San Antonio- (major moves: added PF T. Splitter, ; lost SG R. Mason) - I can't belive I'm doing this... but I'm not putting the Spurs in the playoffs. I'm expecting them to struggle during the season with their age and end up trading PG Tony Parker to rapidly begin their rebuilding process.
Memphis- (major moves: added SG T. Allen, SG X. Henry; lost SG R. Brewer) - This team fought for a playoff spot last season and should be in the mix again this season. I'm just not sure though, will newly anointed All-Star Zach Randolph still play like an All-Star this season?
New Orleans- (major moves: added SF/SG Ariza, SG Bellinelli, ; lost SF M. Peterson, PG D. Collison, SF J. Posey, ) - Sadly, I don't see Chris Paul's team making the playoffs. I love Chris Paul but just adding Trevor Ariza can't be enough.

Pacific Division
1-Lakers- (major moves: added PG S. Blake, SF M. Barnes, C T. Ratliff; lost PG J. Farmar) - Lakers are very good. They've won 2 in a row and have been to 3 straight finals.
2-Phoenix- (major moves: added PF Turkoglu, SF J. Childress, ; lost PF Amare, PF L. Amundson) - I really like this team still! Turkoglu is a great fit for this team and so is Childress (who is just returning from Greece). Surrounding Nash with all of these 3-point shooters should work yet again this season, and they still have big-man 3-point shooter Channing Frye, and let's not forget about the emergence of Goran Dragic as another scoring option (and as someone who can let Nash rest more during the season).
8-Sacramento- (major moves: added C Dalembert, rookie C D. Cousins, ; lost C Hawes, C Brockman, SF Nocioni) - This is my SUPER-DUPER SLEEPER team. Tyreke Evans is entering his 2nd season and should be even better. Plus, picked up Samuel Dalembert, one of the best defensive centers, to go along with Demarcus Cousins, their lottery pick. Last season, this team started out really well before falling flat. In addition, PF Jason Thompson had a solid 2nd season with 12.5 ppg and 8.5 rebounds. SF Omri Casspi also provided immediate help last season. They also have Carl Landry (from the Kevin Martin trade) and he put up crazy numbers for Sacramento (18 ppg and 6.5 rebs). I'm expecting big things from this young team, especially because I'm expecting Tyreke Evans to make the leap to All-Star status.
Clippers- (major moves: added SF R. Gomes, PG Foye; lost PG S. Blake, SF Outlaw, PF D. Gooden) - The Clippers are another team that should be fighting for a playoff spot all season long. I just have no idea what kind of shape Blake Griffin is in, since he hasn't played competitively in 1.5 years.
Golden State- (major moves: added PF D. Lee, rookie C Ekpe Udoh, SF D. Wright, PF L. Amundson; lost SF Maggette, SG Morrow, SG Azubuike, PF A. Randolph, C A. Tolliver, PG CJ Watson) - This team is very hard for me to evaluate as they changed almost all of their players and their coach. I think their new lineup is: PG S. Curry, SG M. Ellis, C Biedrins, SF D. Wright? PF D. Lee. I just don't know what to make of David Lee on this team or if anyone on this team will bother playing defense. Best move of the offseason was firing Coach Don Nelson who literally wasn't trying the last few years!

Playoffs
1st Round
1-Miami over 8-New Jersey - Not a contest.
4-Chicago over 5-Atlanta- Should be fun to watch Noah vs. college teammate Horford.
2-Orlando over 7-Indiana- Could Dr. Hibbert actually annoy Dwight Howard? This could be a fun series.
3-Boston over 6-Milwaukee- I think Milwaukee can give Boston trouble, but Jennings probably won't be able to stop Rondo. (not many people can).
1-Lakers over 8-Sacramento- Will be interesting only because of Dalembert and Cousins. They actually have the big-men to matchup with the Lakers. I have no idea who will guard Kobe though. However, the Lakers' Steve Blake probably can't keep up with Tyreke Evans.
5-Portland over 4-Dallas- No one on Dallas can guard Roy. The defensive centers all cancel each other out in this one (Camby/Oden/Pryzbilla vs. Haywood/Chandler).
2-Phoenix over 7-Utah- Phoenix should crush them.
3-Ok City over 6-Houston- This is an interesting matchup actually.... but I'm going with Durant to continue his dominance.

2nd Round
1-Miami over 4-Chicago- Exciting 7-game series.
2-Orlando over 3-Boston-Exciting 7-game series.
1-Lakers over 5-Portland-Exciting 7-game series, if Oden is healthy.
3-Ok City over 2-Phoenix- Phoenix has no answer for Durant, though Turkoglu may give him some trouble perhaps.

Conf Finals
2-Orlando over 1-Miami - Heat has no answer for Dwight Howard. Orlando can use Pietrus on LeBron, Nelson on Wade. Not sure how they guard Bosh. I hope this series happens, I'd be more excited for this than a Boston-Miami matchup.
1-Lakers over 3-Ok City - Ok City doesn't have the size to handle this.

NBA Finals
2-Orlando over 1-Lakers - Howard destroys all!

All-Gutsy Team
PF - Amare, NY (I'm assuming he puts up silly numbers w/o winning).
SF - Durant, Ok City
C - Dwight Howard, Orlando
SG - Kobe, Lakers
PG - LeBron, Miami

Skynet Championship Series: Season Five

I can't believe it's the 5th season that I've been doing this...

Skynet is back! A wise machine, Agent Smith, once said in the Matrix: “Never send a Human to do a machine’s job.” These inspiring words ring true with the BCS. The time has now come to achieve the BCS purpose – by providing OBJECTIVE rankings. I realize this may be counter to my rooting interests, but it is the only fair way to determine two teams.

So, to be clear, here’s how I devise the standings each week:
1) I take the top 20 of the BCS standings.
2) I input each of the top 20's computer standings from each of 4 computer rankings (Sagarin, Anderson, Colley-Matrix, Wolfe; the other two aren't included because they input human rankings to start and are therefore biased).
3) I let excel calculate the standard deviation for each computer ranking distribution of the top 20. Then, Excel normalizes the distribution, and fits EACH computer ranking onto a 1-20 scale.
4) Finally, the normalized-computer averages are determined (i.e. if Florida is ranked 5.76, 2.55, 2.21, 5.77 in 4 of the polls, which is an average of 4.07, which equals their SCS ranking. This means that according to the polls, they are approximately the 4th-best team in the country).

Most underrated by the humans: Michigan St., Missouri (because they are undefeated?), Ok State (because they are undefeated?)

Most overrated by the humans: Oregon, Boise, Alabama, Ohio St, Iowa!

NOTE: things are a bit wacky in the computers due to the plethora of undefeated teams... but will probably even out once more games are played.

Of course, there is a long time until the end of the season though. And remember, these are not my rankings, they are the rankings of the only objective entity in the universe... Skynet!

2010 Skynet Rankings - Week of 10/18

2010		SCS	BCS	Sched Rnk	Harris	Coaches
1	oklahoma	1.18	1	13	4	3
2	auburn	2.23	4	33	5	5
3	Mich St	2.50	7	53	8	8
4	LSU	2.73	6	28	6	6
5	TCU	4.78	5	77	3	4
6	Missouri	4.87	11	44	16	16
7	boise st	5.01	3	73	2	2
8	oregon	7.62	2	113	1	1
9	Ok St	9.51	14	89	15	15
10	Stanford	9.63	12	29	13	14
11	Utah	11.40	9	126	9	9
12	Alabama	13.74	8	58	7	7
13	Fla St	13.75	17	79	17	17
14	wisconsin	13.89	13	92	11	11
15	Ohio St	14.89	10	75	10	10
16	Arizona	15.14	18	66	18	18
17	Iowa	15.92	15	78	12	12
18	texas	16.86	19	18	22	22
19	Nebraska	16.89	16	97	14	13
20	W. Va.	18.82	20	95	19	19

MMBSD: Hands in the Air

So after 6 weeks every NFC team has at least 2 losses. Meaning if you know who is going to win the NFC you need to wager substantially and not read this blog. Sure there are some bad teams (ahem Panthers) but otherwise on any given Sunday any NFC team seems capable of beating any other team. Hell even the Lions have scored more points than they've given up. I'm throwing up my hands in the air on predictions and just enjoying the ride. Check back in Week 10 to see if there's any more clarity.

On the other hand the AFC seems fairly clearly. Or at least who is in the picture. Ravens, Steelers, Patriots, and Jets seem to be the elite of the AFC. The Pats squeaked by the Ravens in OT at home. A nice win but hardly definitive. Fortunately or unfortunately all of these teams will play during the regular season so a good pecking order heading into the playoffs will be established.

College Football
It's beginning to get that 2007 feel where everyone seems to lose on a non-stop basis. Oregon and OU have the pole positions but there lack of defense is well troubling. Nevada lost to Hawaii meaning Boise has double digit underdogs the rest of the way - hardly a way to ensure a top 2 spot. The conventional (and true wisdom) is that LSU and Auburn control their destiny as an undefeated SEC Champ get's an automatic bid to the mythical BCS championship. Of course they have to play each other (and Bama).

That said it's looking more and more likely like a non-BCS will get a spot in the mythical championship. Why? The voters. The voters have 3 non-BCS in the top 10 for the first time I can remember. The respect is there, the votes are there, all that needs to follow is a few more upsets.....

Finally!

It is incredibly gratifying to me to finally – FINALLY! – see someone perform some sacred cow-tipping and tell it like it is about Eli Manning. Sure, the source is a below-average backup defensive back and sure his one season in New York last year was a complete disaster. But that doesn’t change the verifiable accuracy of what he’s saying.

“You never know what you’re going to get with that guy. You never know if he’s going to come in and make bad decisions; you don’t know if he’s just going to have one of them Peyton Manning games where he lights you up.”

CC Brown has a point. After all, through five games, Manning leads all players (not just QB’s) in turnovers, with an NFL-worst 12 (8 INT/4 FUM). For his career (94 games), Manning has 122 turnovers (96 INT/26 FUM). This is Manning’s seventh season and his sixth as a starter. It is painfully obvious at this point that Manning is not good at protecting the football. How is this even a disputable point?

Manning is a mediocre NFL QB. He’s the very definition of “average” and the personification of mediocrity. His last name affords him the kind of protection from criticism that is otherwise heaped upon turnover-prone QB’s with accuracy and decision-making issues. Although I don’t expect too many more people to stand up and tell the truth, it is somewhat encouraging that at least one person in the NFL can tell us what far too many people refuse to accept. Eli Manning just isn’t that good.