2009 Football Preview: NFC Risers

Finally the dog days of summer are almost behind us and while everyone likes the sun, fall is where the sports world comes alive anew as its slumbered during the dog days of July. As such here begins my futile attempt at NFL previewing. Last year a number of teams surprisingly missed the playoffs. So of those that missed out on the NFC turkeyshoot - who has the best shot at making it to the playoffs this year. Remember all predictions should be used for gambling with Colonel's money only.

1. Chicago - Last year Da Bears barely missed the playoffs. This year with a potentially weakened Vikings (Williams maybe suspended for Steriods) plus Jay Cutler there should be improvements to get them over the hump. An aging defense and missing WRs give me some pause.

2. Dallas - The team is talented and it should have less destractions without Pacman Jones and TO. Is it addition by subtraction? Can Wade Phillips keep the team focused? More importantly is playing the NFC West mean the team gets a few more easy wins?

3. Green Bay - Here's my first team that I have up in shock town. The NFC North is wide open and Aaron Rodgers will a full year starting should be better. The question is the transition from the 4-3 to the 3-4 D. Usual it takes a few years to get it right but I keep repeating NFC North.

4. New Orleans - It's almost a dead horse at this point but New Orleans will become a Super Bowl contender (let alone playoff lock) if they can field a decent/average defense. I doubt it will happen. I am willing to say that they should have stable and healthy RBs - which might be enough to squeek into the playoffs.

5. Seattle - Hasselbeck, Hasselbeck, Hasselbeck. A healthy QB in crappiest division in football certainly means a chance and I'm expecting a Super Bowl loser curse on Arizona. Who else would you bet on in the NFC West to take Arizona's place?

6. Washington - Washington is a hard team to pin down as they are constantly bringing in prized free agents but those free agents rarely perform as expected. IF Alfred Haynesworth plays like the player he was in Tennessee Washington has a great defense and just needs Jason Campbell to avoid turning over the ball. It's possible just not sure how likely.

7. Tampa Bay - Tampa for those that forget finished last year 9-7. I'm still not sure how. Smoke? Mirrors? Mind Control? Nonetheless three man QB competitions (Luke McNown, Josh Freeman, Byron Leftwhich) means that in reality nobody on the team is decent.

8. Not a chance - San Fran, St. Louis, Detroit

Let the debate flow on teams that didn't make the playoffs last year in the NFC and their chances this year....

Cutler Traded to Denver

Well the great Jay Cutler situation has finally ended with him being shipped to Chicago. The trade nets Denver Kyle Orton two first rounders (2009 and 2010) and a third rounder (2010) while Chicago gets a Pro Bowl quarterback.

On a pure talent basis I think that Chicago comes out in front. I tend to buy the QB is by far the most important position in football today. With the addition, Chicago now has the best QB in the NFC North and arguably the best team in the NFC North. Not too shabby. While its possible, its highly improbable that Denver can draft a top tier QB with the #18th pick (and short of a catastrophe and worse pick in 2010). In the meantime being left with Orton as caretaker is hardly recipe for playoff success - which was the argument for why Mike Shanahan was replaced.

I also think that Josh McDaniels ends up worse for wear. Again if believe the Denver QB situation will not be better that it is presently for at least 2-4 years (if your relying on the draft to develop a QB) its easy to imagine Denver fandom turning on the man that was instrumental in creating the situation.

So what's everyone else's take? How's the Belichek mode of "only my players" going to work in Denver?

Taylor Will Dance For Snyder

As if Daniel Snyder could resist the temptation to add a veteran, probably over the hill, player. Ha. Following the loss of their one of their starting DEs, the Washington Redskins traded for Jason Taylor. Consider this an open thread on the trade and the official start to the NFL training camp season.....

Rather than bore you with a picture of Jason Taylor dancing I just went with Ali Landry

NFL Preview Quickie: NFC East

I know its not even June and you're thinking football. Short answer , yes. Longer answer I could care less about the NBA Playoffs, the Indians couldn't hit a crack whore and politics is fundamentally on pause till August (at least in any positive way). So I'll be running weekly quickies on the division. Which according to my math should take about 13 weeks with inflation being what it is. So here's as of 5/23 my Power Ranking and Phrases for the NFC East.

1. Dallas - "Knife's Edge" - Dallas has gone into the playoffs two years running with high expectations and gone over like Tony Kornheiser at a blogger convention...not too well. Rather than re-thinking their strategy Jones added even more fuel with combustable PacMan Jones, a couch on the hot seat, TO not being tranquillized and trade rumors. It will take only a push to turn the Cowbitches into the Bengals.

2. G-Men "Who are You?" The Giants last year will go down as mystery killers ending the Patriots romp into ESPN's Hall o'Fame. A team locked in mediocrity flipped a switch and at least during the playoff team played well elite (even Eli). But the question is was that a fluke? IF, and its a big IF, they play like the end of the year this a NFC favorite. Otherwise they are candidates to causing MJ's 3rd coronary.

3. Philly "The End is Near" Donovan Mcnabb's stay in Philly is quickly coming to an end. He knows it, Reid knows it, the fans know, that drunk hobo on your street corner knows it. How can that not impact things? But in what direction? Yes Philly loaded up on their secondary but it was their lines that was suspect last year.

4. Washington "Hmmm" New coach? Check. Uncertain young offensive weapons? Check. Young QB coming back from platella being on backwards? Check. Aging running back? Check. I have no clue what to make out these guys outside of they're somewhere between 6-10 and 10-6. Like most of the NFL....

so what's your list and big questions....

NFL Offseason: Opportunity Costs

For those that don't have master's in economics or political economy or cake baking allow me to introduce the concept of opportunity costs. Opportunity costs are the costs an alternative that must be forgone to pursue an option. For example if I have a tasty bagel I have to decide whether to use cream cheese or country crock butter. In the end my expected utility (happiness) is the selection of cream cheese minus the value I get if I had used country crock (or we could come up with an example of Howie Long starring at Britney Spears pre-insanity).
This NFL season has been especially rift with trade-offs. Given the dearth of quality free agents coupled with the usage of the franchise tag teams are now faced with the hard choice of building through the draft OR through veterans. In essence should I trade draft choices in exchange for semi-known commodities. Without over-stating it a lot of teams are saying yes the opportunity cost of the draft is well worth veteran players. Buffalo traded for Marcus Stroud, New Orleans Jonathan Vilma, Cleveland for two defensivelineman, Jacksonville Williamson. I doubt this list is inclusive (my opportunity costs on time) let alone this is the end of the trading season. Whether teams are driven by a win now mentality or this is a not so subtle dig at the quality of the NFL draft. After all supposed draft guru Phil Savage (of the Browns) has now traded away his first three picks.

Given all the opportunity costs whether in the form of trading away picks or the high costs of the players (Samuel, Faneca, Justin Smith) its hard to say any team is a winner. Is Asante Samuels really worth that kind of money? Would the Browns have been better served drafting defensive linemen versus saying older veterans. At best its inconclusive but it might be a sign that stability will reign for next year.


On a personal note I was too busy the past week with work to post Cheers and Jeers. To make amends I humbly throw myself on the Patron Saint of this blog...Scarlett Johansson.