Big East - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2009

The Big East Conference has 11 teams that can merit consideration on selection sunday. The conference will probably only get 7 or 8 teams in, but at this point, 11 are still in the running.

UConn, Sag #2, kenpom offense #14, kenpom defense #4, 1st in conference at 15-2, 27-2
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Miami (FL), Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Notre Dame (twice), Nova, Louisville
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Georgetown, Pitt (that's it)
3P% - 36.5%, Reb. Margin = +8.8 , FT 69.2%, FG 47.6%, Opp. FG 37.4% –
The Huskies lost G Jerome Dyson for the season on 2/11. Since then, they have won 3 of 4, losing to only Pitt. They have a week off to prepare for another matchup w/ Pitt on 3/7. UConn is still a force and could still go to the final 4... but it seems hard to pick them to win it all without one of their top players, though I'm still on the fence. They still have future top-5 nba pick C 7'3" Hasheem Thabeet (13.4ppg, 4.4 blocks, 10.5 rebs, 64.46% FG%), F 6'7" Jeff Adrien (13.8 ppg, 10.2 rebs), and 6'2" G AJ Price (12.3ppg, 4.5 assists, 40.4% 3-point%).

Louisville, Sag #7, kenpom offense #47, kenpom defense #2, 2nd in conference at 13-2, 22-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: S. Alabama, Ole Miss, UAB, Kentucky, Nova, Notre Dame (split), Pitt, Syracuse
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: W. Kentucky, Minnesota, UNLV, UConn, Notre Dame (split)
3P% - 35.6%, Reb. Margin = +3.6 , FT 65.2%, FG 44.7%, Opp. FG 39.4% –
Their numbers aren't actually that great... but they started the season very slow, with three questionable non-conference losses (W. Kentucky Minnesota, UNLV). They still have Pitino as coach, and are led by F 6'9" Earl Clark (13 ppg, 8.7 rebs, 41% FG%), F 6'6" Terrence Williams (12.6ppg, 4.7assists, 8.4 rebs, 35.8% 3-point %), and 6'9" F Samardo Samuels (12.2ppg, 4.8 rebs, 58.1% FG%). I really can't figure these guys out to be honest.

Pitt, Sag #3, kenpom offense #2, kenpom defense #31, 3rd in conference at 13-3, 26-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wash St, Siena, Fla St, Georgetown, Syracuse, UConn
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Louisville, Villanova, Providence (that's it)
3P% - 36.5%, Reb. Margin = +10.5 , FT 66.7%, FG 48.1%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
It's three outstanding players that make this team one of the best in the country. There's 6'7" DeJuan Blair (Barkley-style body), who gets 15.8ppg, 13 rebs, and 59.5FG%. They also have 6'6" F Sam Young (18.1 ppg, 5.7 rebs, 35.6 3-point, 49.7 FG%) and 5'10" G Levance Fields (10.9 ppg, 7.5 assists!, 1.9 TOs, 36% 3-point). Obviously, this is one of the teams to watch.

Marquette, Sag #20, kenpom offense #7, kenpom defense #57, 4th in conference at 12-3, 23-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wis Milwaukee, Wisconsin, NC St, Villanova (split), W. Virginia, Georgetown (twice), Notre Dame
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Dayton, Tennessee, So. Florida, UConn, Louisville
3P% - 35.7%, Reb. Margin = +2.3 , FT 70.9%, FG 46.8%, Opp. FG 44.1% –
Marquette relies on an incredible trio of guards who are all seniors. Unfortunately, one of them (Dominic James, 11.7 ppg, 42.3% FG%, 5.3 assists) went down with a knee injury last week and will be out for the season. I was considering placing them as a Final 4 dark horse, but w/o this main cog, it seems like the sweet 16 could be the limit for this team. It's sad, because last year, they lost in the 2nd round to Stanford (and the 7 foot Lopez twins) in an OT-thriller. They still have 6'3" Senior G Jerel McNeal (20ppg, 4.1 assits, 4.7 rebs, 43.4% 3-point), senior G 6'5" Wesley Matthews (18.7 ppg, 5.3 rebs, 41.6% 3-point), and 6'6" F Lazar Howard (16ppg, 8.6rebs, 46.4%FG%). They are a small team, as they were last year.

Villanova, Sag #18, kenpom offense #26, kenpom defense #28, 5th in conference at 11-5, 23-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Temple, Pitt, Syracuse (twice), Marquette,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Texas, Louisville, UConn, W. Virginia, Georgetown
3P% - 36.2%, Reb. Margin = +4.5 , FT 73.9%, FG 46.4%, Opp. FG 40.1% –
Villanova didn't play a tought non-conference schedule, but does have a victory over Pitt. They have 2 main players leading the way: 6'8" Dante Cunningham (16.3 ppg, 7.3 rebs, 54.5% FG%) and 6'2" Scottie Reynolds (15.3 ppg, 3.7 assists, 35.5% 3point). Again, this is another team that is hard to figure out. Looking back, it appears they beat Pitt by getting DeJuan Blair in foul trouble.

Providence, Sag #68, kenpom offense #46, kenpom defense #128, 6th in conference at 9-7, 17-11
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Charlotte, Syracuse, Pitt
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Northeastern, Baylor, St. Mary's (the good one), Boston College, W. Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgetown
3P% - 32.1%, Reb. Margin = +1.4 , FT 67.3%, FG 45.3%, Opp. FG 44.9% –
This team's numeric profiles are poor. Very poor! Nonetheless, they are in bubble watch contention for their solid conference record and the victory over Pitt, but would still need to win games in the conference tourney. They have balanced scoring among 5 players (with a sixth getting 8.7 rebs). The leading scorer is 6'5" G Weyinmi Efejku (14.4ppg, 4.1 rebs, 37.1% 3-point). I'm not expecting much from this team. Their win over Pitt also included foul trouble for Blair, just like Villanova's. I think there's a trend here!

Syracuse, Sag #24, kenpom offense #19, kenpom defense #53, 8th in conference at 8-7, 20-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Florida, Kansas, Virginia, Memphis, Notre Dame, Georgetown (split), Cincy
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Cleveland St (on buzzer beater), Pitt, Louisville, Providence, Villanova (twice), UConn
3P% - 34.8%, Reb. Margin = +2.5 , FT 64.1%, FG 49.0%, Opp. FG 41.7% –
Syracuse has a much more impressive resume than Providence, especially as Kansas and Memphis continue to win. They should probably make the tourney, short of a 1-st round exit from the big-east tourney. Note: they have a poor FT% for some reason. They are led by 6'0" Johnny Flynn (17.3 ppg, 6.1 assists, 33.7% 3-point), 6'4" G Eric Devendorf (15.9ppg, 3.4 TOs, 38% 3-point), F 6'4" Paul Harris (12.9ppg, 8 rebs, 50.6% FG%). Their other F is 6'9" and gets 7.5 rebs.

West Virginia, Sag #15, kenpom offense #34, kenpom defense #6, 8th in conference at 8-7, 19-9
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Iowa, Ole Miss, Cleve St, Ohio St, Georgetown, Villanova, Notre Dame,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Kentucky, Davidson, UConn, Marquette, Cincy
3P% - 32.3%, Reb. Margin = +4.8 , FT 68.2%, FG 43.1%, Opp. FG 42.0% –
Other than their loss to Cincy in the Big East, W. Virginia seems to beat the teams they are supposed to beat, and lose to the teams they should lose to. The non-conference win over Ohio State should be helpful. They are led by 2 players: 6'7" F Da'Sean Butler (18.1 ppg, 5.7 rebs, 38.5% 3-point), and 6'6" G Alex Ruoff (16.1 ppg, 3.6 assits, 3.6 rebs, and 37.7% 3-point).

Cincy, Sag #45, kenpom offense #56, kenpom defense #71, 8th in conference at 8-7, 18-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNLV, UAB, Miss St, Georgetown (twice), Notre Dame, W. Virginia
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Fla. St, Xavier, Memphis, Providence (twice), Villanova, Syracuse
3P% - 34.6%, Reb. Margin = +4.2 , FT 66.8%, FG 43.3%, Opp. FG 41.3% –
It's a very thin profile... and they will need to win a lot of games in the tourney still to have a chance. Leading scorer is 6'1" Deonta Vaughn (15.5 ppg, 4.7 assists, 3.4 TOs, 38.7 FG%).

Notre Dame, Sag #37, kenpom offense #5, kenpom defense #121, 10th in conference at 7-9, 16-12
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Texas, Georgetown, Louisville,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UNC, Ohio St, St. John's, Cincy, UConn (twice), West Virginia
3P% - 40.4%, Reb. Margin = +2.0 , FT 70.8%, FG 44.3%, Opp. FG 43.5% –
Notre Dame once was a top 10 team... and have struggled immensely once Big East play began. They had a 7-game losing streak at one point, including a loss to fellow bubble team Cincy. Not only that, their absurd 45-game home winning streak (and extremely impressive 20-game conference streak) came to an end and they couldn't recover. Their team 3-point % is absurd. However, as you can see from the defensive rank and opp. FG% they don't play defense at all. Are they still a dangerous team? You bet. But their disappointments in the tourney the last 2 seasons (losses to Wash St in 2nd round last year, loss to Winthrop in 1st round in 2007) may prove to be the only appearances for the duo of senior 6'0" G Kyle McAlarney (16.3 ppg, 3.5 assists, 43.9% 3-pointers, four 3-pointers per game) and junior 6'8" FLuke Harangody (24.2ppg, 12.5 rebs, 47.9% FG%).

Georgetown, Sag #32, kenpom offense #28, kenpom defense #26, 11th in conference at 6-10, 15-12
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Maryland, Memphis, UConn, Syracuse, Villanova,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Tennessee, Pitt, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Cincy (twice), Marquette (twice)
3P% - 34.2%, Reb. Margin = -0.2 , FT 71.5%, FG 47.3%, Opp. FG 41.1% –
Georgetown was a top-10 ranked team when Big East play began... and they have just had lots of problems. They've only won 3 of their last 12 and obviously need to win both of their last 2 games (against bottom-feeders St. John's DePaul) to reach 8-10 in conference play and then would have to probably get to the conference finals... and even then that may not be enough. It's strange because their numbers, other than the rebounding margin, are very solid (computer ranking, offensive and defensive rankings). They also have great wins over Memphis and UConn and Villanova. All the losses in conference play are killer though. They are led by 6'8" F Dajuan Summers (14 ppg, 4.5 rebs, 41.6% 3-point) and freshman 6'11" C Greg Monroe (13ppg, 1.5 blocks, 6.8 rebs, 56.7 % FG%). I still wouldn't want to play them in the tourney.

MVC and Big East - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis

Time to quickly preview the 4 teams worth talking about in the MVC, and the whopping 10 worth talking about in the Big East. Just for simplicity, ESPN currently projects only 1 MVC team and 7 Big East teams. I can already tell you that I support two from the MVC which ranks as the 7th best conference at the moment according to Sagarin http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkc0708.htm , right behind the six power conferences.

MVC

Drake, Sag #20, 1st in conference at 15-3, 25-4 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Butler, Illinois St (twice), Creighton (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: St. Mary’s, So. Ill, Bradley, Missouri St
3P% - 36.8%, Reb. Margin = +2.7 , FT 75.3%, FG 44.8%, Opp. FG 43.7% –
Only non-conference loss was to St. Mary’s, but playing Iowa and Iowa St this year was meaningless b/c those teams stunk. What concerns me is that they don’t do any one thing well, other than shoot free throws, including playing defense. They beat Butler in the marquee Bracketbusters matchup, to give them their best win by far. Their top 4 scorers all like to shoot 3-pointers. Their fourth-leading scorer is Klayton Korver, brother of Kyle Korver of the Utah Jazz. Apparently, another brother, Kaleb is playing at Creighton, and a fourth brother is a senior in high school. Also, their mom supposedly scored 74 points in a high school game. That’s what we call good genes. If my mom played, she’d shoot grandpa-style and throw it under-handed. Anyways, their biggest guy is 6-8.

Illinois St, Sag #44, 2nd in conference at 13-5, 22-8 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Creighton (twice), Cincy, Missouri,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Indiana, Kent St., E. Mich, Indiana St, Drake (twice)
3P% - 38.2%, Reb. Margin = +1.6 , FT 63.8%, FG 46.1%, Opp. FG 40.2% –
They can’t shoot free throws at all, but they do play defense and can shoot the three. This would be an interesting team if they make the tourney, only b/c the question the entire game would be whether the free throw shooting is going to cause them to lose. This team has gotten hot at the right time, winning their last 4 including wins over Creighton and So. Illinois to grab 2nd place in conference. They are led by Osiris Eldridge, a 6-3 guard, averages 16.3 ppg, 5.6 reb, and shoots 41.7% from 3-point land. They have a 6-11 center who only averages 2.6 reb/game, so he must be very uncoordinated. Other than that, not much size on this team, though 6-7 forward A. Slack grabs 7.1 rebs/game.

Southern Illinois, Sag #50, 3rd in conference at 11-7, 17-13 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Miss. St., Creighton (split), Drake (split), St. Mary’s
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: USC, Indiana, Charlotte, W. Mich, Butler
3P% - 34.2%, Reb. Margin = +1.3 , FT 71.4%, FG 42.8%, Opp. FG 42.5% –
What’s encouraging is that they have two quality victories (Miss. St., St. Mary’s) out of conference, plus they did get splits with Creighton and Drake. It shows a lot of potential. For those wondering, this is the team that went to the sweet 16 and lost to Kansas last year. They still have their bruising 6-7 forward from last year’s team, Randal Falker, who averages 12.9 ppg, 7.1 reb, and shoots 56.2% from the field. They graduated their top guard and scorer from last year’s team, hence the drop-off in wins and expectations.

Creighton, Sag #50, 4th in conference at 10-8, 20-9 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: DePaul, Nebraska, St. Joe’s, So. Ill (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Xavier, Ill. St (twice), Drake (twice)
3P% - 37.5%, Reb. Margin = +1.8 , FT 71.7%, FG 47.5%, Opp. FG 41.5% –
They played the easiest non-conference schedule in the MVC; only good team they played was Xavier. It’s hard to figure out this team by looking at the stats… their 3rd and 4th leading scorers play limited minutes off the bench, and their PG is not a scoring threat as he shoots 30% from the field. These guys need to win the tourney to make it, and it ain’t going to happen barring a miracle.

The MVC tourney is this week, and if #2-seed Illinois St and #3 seed Southern Illinois play in the semis (Saturday March 8th at 4PM), it’s entirely possible that the winner could get an at large NCAA bid just for making the MVC finals. Personally, I think So. Illinois’s profile looks much better with the quality wins. Hopefully, the committee will just let the winner of that game (if it happens) go to the tourney, because I’d rather see the 2nd place team from this conference than some questionable sub-500 team from one of the power conferences.

BIG EAST

Georgetown, Sag #9, 1st in conference at 14-3, 24-4 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Michigan, Alabama, Uconn, Notre Dame, Marquette
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Memphis, Pitt, Louisville, Syracuse
3P% - 36.7%, Reb. Margin = +2.5 , FT 66.9%, FG 48.2%, Opp. FG 36.2% –
The non-conference schedule was pretty easy and they only lost to Memphis, the only good team on the entire slate. In conference, Georgetown has obviously been putting the smack down. They are playing the same style as last year’s final 4 team, which is limited possessions, with the same type of offense involving cuts and motions which confuses teams and leads to easy baskets. And… they have a star Senior in Dr. Hibbert (13.6 ppg, 6.4 reb, 2.4 blks)! Guard Jonathon Wallace is their main 3-point threat shooting 42.7% from 3-point land.

Louisville, Sag #14, 1st in conference at 14-3, 24-6 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNLV, Kentucky, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Marquette, Nova, Pitt
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: BYU, Dayton, Purdue [w/ injury problems to best player] ; Cincy, Seton Hall, UConn
3P% - 35.0%, Reb. Margin = +3.1 , FT 66.0%, FG 45.8%, Opp. FG 37.8% –
They had some injury problems (with center D. Padgett and Palacios out), which partially caused them to lose to Dayton, Purdue, and BYU. But they have really rised to the occasion in the big east since being healthy, despite losing to some bad teams and beating a lot of the good teams. Top 4 scorers all average between 10.5 and 12 ppg. Padgett shoots an absurd 68.2% from the field. Best 3-point threat is Jerry Smith, who shoots 40.4% from downtown. This team has really taken to heart Coach Pitino’s lessons on defense.

UConn, Sag #16, 3rd in conference at 12-4, 23-6 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Indiana, Marquette, Notre Dame, W. Virginia, Louisville,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Memphis, Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Providence
3P% - 35.8%, Reb. Margin = +6.7 , FT 71.2%, FG 46.2%, Opp. FG 38.3% –
They really didn’t start to come together until they beat Indiana in Bloomington. They’ve actually won 12 of 13 and are red-hot at the moment. Jeff Adrien, a 6-7 forward, and AJ Price, a 6-2 guard, both get 15 ppg. Adrien also grabs 9.3 rebs. Price shoots 38.7% from 3-point land and delivers 6 assists per game.

Notre Dame, Sag #17, 3rd in conference at 12-4, 22-6 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Kansas St., Villanova, Marquette, PittNon-conference losses & key conference losses: Baylor, Geo. Tech, Georgeotwn, Louisville, Uconn, Marquette
3P% - 40.9%, Reb. Margin = +7.4 , FT 74.1%, FG 45.2%, Opp. FG 40.7% –
These guys take my 2008 award for Best Overall Statistics thus far! Last year’s winner, Maryland, bowed out in the 2nd round, so let’s hope for all the Irish fans out there, that Notre Dame can do a bit better. I’m also curious to see if they play well in the tourney to overcome last year’s pathetic showing in a loss to Winthrop in the 1st round. Anyways, this team is led by three main players: Luke Harangody, Kyle McAlarney, and Rob Kurz. Harangody, a 6-8 sophomore, gets 21ppg, 10.6 reb, and shoots 50% from the floor. McAlarney, a 6-0 junior, gets 15.3 ppg and takes 7.5 3pointers per game but shoots 45% from out there! Kurz, a 6-9 senior, gets 12.3 ppg, 7.7 reb, and 1.4 blocks. I’m going to blindly rely on these guys in the tourney if for no other reason, because they lost to Winthrop last year and I like teams that have revenge on their mind.

Marquette, Sag #13, 5th in conference at 11-6, 21-7 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Ok St., Wisconsin, Notre Dame (split), Pitt, Nova
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Duke, W. Va, Louisville (twice), Uconn, Georgetown
3P% - 36.1%, Reb. Margin = +1.4 , FT 70.6%, FG 45.4%, Opp. FG 41.0% –
These guys have a high ranking in Sagarin mainly because of the scores of their games and the number of close losses (4 points to duke, 3 points to notre dame, 2 points to georgetown).) They have a balanced attack with 3 guys averaging 13 ppg. Their best 3-point threat is Lazar Hayward, but he only attempts 2.4 per game. I hope it’s pronounced “Lazer” because that would make the games more exciting.

Pitt, Sag #22, 6th in conference at 9-7, 21-8 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Duke, Georgetown, Nova, W. Va
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Dayton, Rutgers, Cincy, Marquette, Louisville
3P% - 33.6%, Reb. Margin = +5.0 , FT 68.4%, FG 45.7%, Opp. FG 42.3% –
Pitt beat Duke in the regular season, but as we’ve all realized, that really isn’t too special of a feat. Pitt’s been in a bit of a funk and was on a 3-game losing streak before toppling Cincy and Syracuse (non-tourney teams). Pitt is led by Sam Young, a 6-6 forward, who averages 18.2 ppg, 6.5 reb, and shoots 41% beyond the arc. They also have DeJuan Blair, a 6-7 forward, who averages 12ppg, 9.5 reb, and shoots 53% from the field.

W. Virginia, Sag #24, 6th in conference at 9-7, 20-9 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Auburn, Marquette, Syracuse
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Tennessee, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Cincy, Uconn, Georgeotwn
3P% - 35.9%, Reb. Margin = +2.0 , FT 67.6%, FG 45.2%, Opp. FG 41.1% –
Played a weak non-conference slate and still don’t have much of a good resume, given all the tough games in the big east. Led by J. Alexander (6’8”) (15.1ppg, 6 reb) ; A. Ruoff (14 ppg, 3.1 assists, 41.8% 3p%).

Villanova, Sag #63, 9th in conference at 7-9, 17-11 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: G. Mason, LSU, Temple, Pitt, Syracuse, W. Virginia, Uconn
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: NC St, Depaul, Cincy, Rutgers, St. Joe’s
3P% - 34.7%, Reb. Margin = +2.5 , FT 71.6%, FG 43.2%, Opp. FG 43.9% –
They don’t play defense, they lost to St. Joe’s who is also fighting for a ticket to the big dance, and they’ve lost to a lot of the bad teams in the conference. It doesn’t look good for them despite being ranked early on. However, they had very questionable calls that resulted in losses to NC St. and Georgetown. Nonetheless, their best player is Scottie Reynolds (16.3 ppg, 36.3% 3pointers on 6.2 attempts per game). It kind of reminds me of another Scottie, Scotty Thurman on that Arkansas championship team, who also loved to throw up 3-pointers! Granted, Villanova needs to sell its soul to the devil to win it all this year.

Syracuse, Sag #49, 9th in conference at 7-9, 17-12 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UAB, Syracuse, Providence
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Boston College, Dayton, St. Louis, Temple
3P% - 33.3%, Reb. Margin = +5.6 , FT 67.1%, FG 48.2%, Opp. FG 42.3% –
I just wanted to put them on the list to say that they have no business going to the tourney unless they actually win the Big East tournament. And I don’t see Carmelo, Hakim Warrick, or J-Mac saving them.