Big 10 - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2011

As I sit here watching the Ohio State vs. Wisconsin game, I figure it's only suitable to provide a look at the Big 10 this week!

Ohio State, Sag #1, kenpom offense #3, kenpom defense #2, 1st in conference at 11-0, 24-0
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Florida, Fla. St, Purdue, Minnesota
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: None
3P% - 40.4%, Reb. Margin = +5.2, FT 68.5%, FG 49.6%, Opp. FG 41.5% –
Led by J. Sullinger (6'9" freshman 18 ppg, 10.2 reb, 56.8% FG%) and Buford (6'5" junior, 13.6ppg, 44% 3p%) and 5th-year senior Lighty (6'5", 12.5 ppg, 40.7% 3p%), and Diebler (6'6" senior, 11.2 ppg, 48% 3p% ). Perhaps more importantly, backup? freshman PG Aaron Craft has been sensational (4.6 assists, 28minutes per game). This team has been #1 and is highly regarded, and its the team I follow, so I will be keeping my eye on them all season long. Having a top-5 NBA talent in Sullinger (who is a bona fide PF, with back-to-the-basket moves) along with all of these 3 -point shooters makes OSU extremely dangerous. They also have another big body in Lauderdale, so its not like Sullinger can be complely focused on.

Wisconsin, Sag #11, kenpom offense #1, kenpom defense #36, 2nd in conference at 8-3, 18-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Marquette, Boston College, Illinois (split), Purdue, Minnesota
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UNLV, Notre Dame, Illinois (split), Mich St (split), Penn St
3P% - 37.7%, Reb. Margin = +3.9, FT 82.9% (that's amazing!), FG 44.6%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
Led by Jon Leuer (6'10" SENIOR, 19.4 ppg, 7.4 rebs, 44% 3point, 48% FG%) and Jordan Taylor (6'1" junior, 17.7 ppg, 4.7 assists, 41% 3p%). This Jon Leuer is awesome. The team doesn't rebound as great as most Wisconsin teams. What gives me some pause about this team are the losses to UNLV and Notre Dame, meaning they lost their toughest games out of conference.

Purdue, Sag #9, kenpom offense #20, kenpom defense #10, 2nd in conference at 8-3, 19-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Va. Tech, Alabama, Minnesota (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Richmond, W. Va., Minnesota (split), Ohio St, Wisconsin
3P% - 38.4%, Reb. Margin = +2.6, FT 71.7%, FG 45.4%, Opp. FG 41.3% –
If only Robbie Hummel was healthy... the other senior stars on this team (6'10" senior - JaJuan Johnson - 20.6 ppg, 7.6 rebs, 50% FG%; 6'4" senior - E'Twaun Moore - 17.8 ppg, 5.6 rbs, 39% 3pt) are fantastic. This team could be dangerous in the tourney... but probably nothing more than a sweet 16 appearance.

Illinois, Sag #24, kenpom offense #27, kenpom defense #17, 4th in conference at 6-5, 16-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Maryland, UNC, Gonzaga, Wisconsin,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Texas (in OT), Ill-Chicago!, Missouri, Penn St, Indiana, Northwestern
3P% - 40.4%, Reb. Margin = +2.1, FT 72.8%, FG 46.8%, Opp. FG 39.6% –
This team has been more Jekyl and Hyde then most. One atrocious loss (Ill-Chicago!), an awesome win (UNC), and a close call (Texas). I saw their star player against OSU (6'3" senior - G Demetri McCarney 14.8ppg, 6.6 assists, 3 TOs, 47.6% 3pt%) but he got outclassed by the freshman PG Craft and the OSU defense. Mike Davis (6'9" senior - 11.5ppg, 6.8 rebs, 52% FG%) also is the other main contributor then they have 4 guys between 8 and 9 ppg.

Michigan State, Sag #40, kenpom offense #49, kenpom defense #58, 5th in conference at 6-6, 14-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Washington, Wisconsin,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UConn, Duke, Syracuse, Texas, Penn St, IOWA!
3P% - 36.1%, Reb. Margin = +3.8, FT 68.9% , FG 44.0%, Opp. FG 42.9% –
PG Kore Luciuos has been kicked off the team. The team has gone from being ranked #2 in the nation at the start of the season (since they were returning everyone from last year's final 4 team), to being barely above .500 and in serious danger of not making the tourney. They are still led by Kalin Lucas (6'1" senior - 16.2 ppg, 3.5 assists, 40.7% 3p); Draymond Green (6'7" junior - 13.2 ppg, 8.5 rebs, 4.2 assists, 38.8% 3p); Durrell Summers (6'5" senior - 13.2 ppg, 4.3 rebs, 37.8% 3p%). I honestly don't know what to make of this team after all of the awful performances... in past years, Michigan State would snag a 10-seed and still make a run to the elite 8... then there wer other years they'd get bounced in the 1st round in that situation. Your guess is as good as mine on this.

Minnesota, Sag #35, kenpom offense #40, kenpom defense #72, 6th in conference at 5-7, 16-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNC, W. Va, Purdue (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Virginia, Indian, Mich St,
3P% - 32.9%, Reb. Margin = +5.0, FT 64.9%, FG 46.1%, Opp. FG 39.7% –
What started as a promising season for Minnesota, has become unraveled due to injuries. Starting senior PG Al Nolen broke his foot and had surgery, and is just praying he returns for the tournament. His backup just happened to transfer earlier in the season... meaning freshmen are now manning the PG spot (and not playing well). The team is led by Hoffarber (6'4" senior - 14 ppg, 3.9 assists, 39.6% 3p); Mbakwe (6'8" junior - 13.2ppg, 10.6 rebs, 61% FG%); D. Joseph (6'4" junior - 11ppg, 38% 3p).

Penn State, Sag #73, kenpom offense #31, kenpom defense #129, 6th in conference at 5-7, 12-11
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Illinois, Wisconsin
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Ole Miss, Maine, Michigan (twice), Va. Tech, Maryland
3P% - 31.8%, Reb. Margin = +1.6, FT 72.4%, FG 43.0%, Opp. FG 44.0% –
I thought at the beginning of big 10 season they might have a chance to squeak out a bid. I know now from looking at their profile, it ain't going to hapen short of a miraculous run to end the season.

Conclusion
For the Big 10 to have 6 bids now, Minnesota needs to survive without their PG, and Michigan state needs to get some wins. For Penn State to grab an unreal SEVENTH bid, EVERYTHING would have to go right. I'd keep an eye on the inconsistent Illinois, and I'm not sure how far Wisconsin can actually go.

Way too Early Look at the Big 10 For 2011

Last week I noted that really none of the Big 10 teams have a great chance at a national championship run. I stand by that but here's a little food for thought on why that might be the case.

Nebraska - Nebraska returns a powerful defense led by the D line. However the offense loses 6 starters (including 3 o-linemen), faces real defenses (as opposed to the Big 12 versions), and has a QB and a coach at odds with one another. Factor in probably the toughest Big 10 schedule and it's hard to imagine an undefeated season.

Ohio State - The Buckeyes also lose a lot. Even ignoring the 5 starters sitting for the first 4-5 games, tOSU will have to replace 7 starters on D. The biggest question is who will be the starter while TP sits. The Buckeyes have to face @Miami and MSU while they have the suspended players sit.

Wisconsin - Wisconsin will have to replace the heart of their offense in they lose their QB, RB, and best 3 o-linemen. However Wisconsin seems to never miss a beat running the ball so the question is will they have any kind of threat passing.

Michigan State - MSU took a huge step forward during the regular season before being embaressed by Alabama. The biggest loss is all everything Greg Jones who led the team in tackles the past 4 years. Beyond that a lot of losses on the o-line. Can anyone really predict what the Spartans will do next year?

Hokemania - No Big 10 returns as many starters as TTUN. 9 starters on offense (including Shoelaces) and 7 on defense (including best d-linemen in the league next year Mike Martin). However the Wolverines have a long way to go to reach contender status and sometimes players take awhile to adjust to a new coaching staff/schemes.

Iowa - Iowa really get's gutted. They lose first rounder Clayborn, their QB, their RB, both WRs, and a slew of defensive players. And now 12 players were hospitalized for exertional rhabdomyolysis and yes there will be an investigation over that one.

Penn State - Had a disappointing 7-5 season and loses their best 3 o-lineman. The biggest question is the QB position will it be the former walk-on McGloin or the uber-heralded Boldin at QB. And will either actually be good?

So in summary can you pick out the favorite? I can't.....

Legends and Leaders?!?!

Are you f'in kidding me?

Epic fail.

Big 10 Beat News

A quick over view of some of the latest in Big 10 news

Expansion
Expansion continues to be the biggest topic as meetings and rumors are ongoing on the subject. Very little is definitive at this point but a few kernels of truth appear to be more solid.

• Expansion is happening with multiple schools joining. By the end of expansion the Big 10 will have 14 to 16 schools.
• The Big 10 network appears to the key factor - so schools will be judged in how they expand the tv market. Consequently university's that have brand name in appeal in basketball are going to be considered more than probably is being let on.
• Notre Dame is the obvious school but they seem reluctant at this point
• I think the one shoe in for expansion is Missouri. After that Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn, Nebraska, Kansas continue to be mentioned as possibilities

New Comers
Every year new faces pop up in college football. Some are bright eyed freshman , some are those waiting for their opportunity to shine. Who are a few random names to keep in the back of the mind?

• William Gholston DE, MSU - Younger brother of Vernon Gholston. Highly recruited DE could see the field immediately. Michigan State has the offense- it's a question if they have any defense
• Demar Dorsey, CB/S, Mi - Demar Dorsey was the highlest ranked recruit in the Big 10 this year. The Wolverines, lost their top 2 play makers (Graham and Warren) on a porous defense. Unless freshmen (specifically Dorsey) can make an impact it doesn't seem likely that the Wolverine defense will improve.
• Ben Buchanon, P , OSU - Everyone knows that Tressel worships on the alter of Special Teams. Unfortunately the Buckeyes lost their punter, kicker, kick returner, punt returner, and kickoff guy to graduation. Which is everyone. Buchanon, a red shirt fresman, could be in line to handle punting, kickoffs, and long range kicks - which means his success is needed for the Buckeyes special teams to be any good.
• Robert Mauve, QB, Purdue - Normally I don't comment too much on Purdue but they did make several strides last year to the point where beating Purdue should not be an after thought. Mauve, a transfer from University of Miami, takes the helm for the Boilermaker offense. Once thought of as being highly talented, Mauve has a chance of resurrecting his career and pushing Purdue to the top of the Big 10
  

ACC & Big Ten - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2010

ACC - look out for a dangerous Georgia Tech team w/ two NBA 1st ronders... Maryland is relying on one guy and has more wins than they deserve...

Duke, Sag #3, kenpom offense #1, kenpom defense #3, 1st in conference at 12-2, 25-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UConn, Gonzaga, Clemson (twice), Maryland
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Wisconsin, Geo Tech (split), NC St, Georgetown
3P% - 39.1%, Reb. Margin = +6.2, FT 75.9%, FG 44.4%, Opp. FG 40.3% –
Jon Scheyer (6'5" senior - 18.8ppg, 5.3 assists, 3.4 rebs, 40.9 3p%); Nolan Smith (6'2" junio - 17.4ppg, 41% 3p%), Kyle Singler (6'8" junior - 17.1 ppg, 7.0rebs, 38.6% 3p%). They have three superb 3-point shooters. Surprisingly, they don't play great defense, though it is adequate. Also surprising, is their relatively weak schedule outside of conference. I'm not totally sold on this team.

Maryland, Sag #14, kenpom offense #7, kenpom defense #33, 2nd in conference at 11-3, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Fla St, Georgia Tech
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Cincy, Wisconsin, Villanova, William & Mary !, Wake
3P% - 38.9%, Reb. Margin = +0.3 , FT 71.3%, FG 47.6%, Opp. FG 38.0% –
This team is completely overachieving. They are in danger of getting upset early. Greivis Vasquez (19.5ppg, 6.4assists, 4.8 rebs, 37.9% 3p%); Eric Hayes (45.5% 3p%) , Jordan Williams (9.1ppg, 8.4 rebs). I don't remember any team w/ such an awful rebounding advantage being able to survive long in the tourney. Remember, season numbers should be boosted from playing a bunch of non-tourney teams, so in the tourney, they may get destroyed on the glass.

Clemson, Sag #20, kenpom offense #43, kenpom defense #9, 3rd in conference at 9-6, 21-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Butler, Maryland (split), Geo Tech (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Texas A&M, Illinois, BC
3P% - 34.1%, Reb. Margin = +2.6, FT 66.3%, FG 45.8%, Opp. FG 41.6% –
Trevor Booker (6'8" freshman - 15.6ppg, 8.4 rebs); Demontez Sitt (10.9ppg, 38.9% 3p%); balanced scoring from the rest of the team. They can't shoot 3s or free throws, so I don't believe in this team either.

Virginia Tech, Sag #34, kenpom offense #102, kenpom defense #10, 4th in conference at 8-6, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Georgia, Seton Hall, Wake
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Temple, UNC, Miami (FL), BC
3P% - 30.4%, Reb. Margin = +1.8 , FT 72.1%, FG42.3%, Opp. FG 39.5% –
Maclolm Delaney (20.4ppg, 4.1 assists, 30.3% 3p% ! (he takes 6 per game!); Dorenzo Hudson (14.2ppg, 3.6 rebs, 28.7% 3p% ! (he takes 3.6 per game!);
This team also seems really messed up. A 30% 3-point shooting team, with the leading scorer taking 6 per game and shooting 30%??? This doesn't seem like a winning formula.

Fla St, Sag #27, kenpom offense #103, kenpom defense #1, 5th in conference at 8-6, 20-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Alabama, Marquette, FIU (take that Isiah!), Geo Tech (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Ohio St, Florida, NC State, Clemson (twice)
3P% - 33.7%, Reb. Margin = +5.4 , FT 64.7%, FG 45.9%, Opp. FG 36.9% –
Six players average between 8 and 11 ppg. Very balanced. They have one 3-point shooter (Deividas Dulkys - 39.9%); a couple of PGs, and a couple of big men (7-1 Solomon Alabi - a top-20 pick on NBA Draft Express and a 6-9 guy). They somehow have the best defense in the land... and one of the worst offenses. I have no idea what that means.

Wake, Sag #35, kenpom offense #89, kenpom defense #24, 5th in conference at 8-6, 18-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Gonzaga, Xavier, Richmond, Maryland, Geo Tech (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: William & Mary!, Purdue, NC State
3P% - 32.1%, Reb. Margin = +4.9 , FT 65.5%, FG 44.2%, Opp. FG 37.9% –
Aminu (6'9" - sophomore - 16.4ppg, 11.0 rebs, ) Ishmael Smith (6'0" senior - 13.2 ppg, 6.2 assists, 4.7 rebs); no real 3-point shooter on this team, but they have an NBA-prospect big man and a great PG. This team may have more upside despite the uneven play in conference.

Georgia Tech, Sag #33, kenpom offense #55, kenpom defense #20, 7th in conference at 7-8, 19-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Siena, USC, Duke (split), Clemson,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Dayton, Florida St, Georgia, Miami (FL)
3P% - 37.2%, Reb. Margin = +5.0 , FT 65.2%, FG 46.4%, Opp. FG 38.1% –
Lawal (6'8" junior - 13.5ppg, 9.0 rebs, ); Favors (6'10"freshman - 11.7ppg, 8.3 rebs ) - the bench also has FOUR 3-point shooters all above 40%. Lawal and Favors are both slated as NBA draft picks this year. Favors is a top-5 pick, Lawal a top-30 pick. I'd keep an eye on these guys (and this team)!

Big Ten - the top 4 are capable of creating noise so long as Kalin Lucas is healthy for Mich State. Purdue may win a game or two w/o Hummel in the tourney but that's the ceiling. Northwestern blew their chance of going to the tourney, barring a miracle.

Ohio State, Sag #13, kenpom offense #10, kenpom defense #19, 1st in conference at 14-4, 24-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Cal, Fla St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Mich St
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: (Note: lost to Butler, Wisconsin, and Michigan w/o Evan Turner); UNC, Minnesota, W. Virginia, Purdue
3P% - 37.9%, Reb. Margin = +2.2, FT 68.9%, FG 49.4%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
Evan Turner is going to be the #2 pick. If he hadn't missed some games (and 3 losses), Ohio State would be in the running for a #1 seed. Turner is ridiculous (19.8ppg, 5.8 assists, 9.4 rebs, 1.8 steals). They also have Buford (14.3 ppg, 5.5 reb) and Diebler (12.6 ppg, 42% 3p%) and Lighty (12.4 ppg, 4.6 rebs, 39% 3p%). I'll be t he first to admit it - Ohio state doesn't have a bench and they don't have a true PG... meaning they are a really bizarre team and they will be exposed before the Final 4, unless Evan Turner goes Carmelo on us (which I don't think can happen... everyone forgets, but Carmelo at least had two good guards and an NBA forward who was playing center (Hakim Warrick). Evan Turner doesn't have that much help.

Michigan St, Sag #23, kenpom offense #28, kenpom defense #31, 2nd in conference at 12-4, 22-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Gonzaga, Wisconsin (split), Purdue (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Florida, UNC, Texas, Illinois, Ohio St
3P% - 33.3%, Reb. Margin = +9.1 , FT 68.6%, FG 41.7%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
Kalin Lucas (15.1 ppg, 4.0assists, 35% 3p%) must get healthy for them to have a chance. They've been a mess for the last month since his injuries have hampered him.

Purdue, Sag #8, kenpom offense #33, kenpom defense #5, 2nd in conference at 12-4, 24-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Tennessee, Wake, Alabama, W. Virginia, Wisconsin (split), Mich St (split), Ohio St (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Northwestern, Wisconsin (split), Mich St (split), Ohio St (split)
3P% - 32.4%, Reb. Margin = +0.2, FT 74.0%, FG 45.2%, Opp. FG 40.2% –
This team can't go too far as they lost all-world PF Robbie Hummel for the season. They still have Moore (6'4" junior - 16.8ppg, 37% 3p%) and J. Johnson (6'10" - junior - 14.7ppg, 7.1rebs)

Wisconsin, Sag #12, kenpom offense #11, kenpom defense #15, 4th in conference at 11-5, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Maryland, Duke, Arizona, Marquette, Ohio St (split), Purdue (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Gonzaga, Wis. Green Bay, Illinois, Minnesota
3P% - 35.8%, Reb. Margin = +1.9 , FT 74.2%, FG44.9%, Opp. FG 41.8% –
Hughes (15.5 ppg, 4.5 rebs, 39.4% 3p%); Leuer (14.4 ppg, 5.8 rebs, ) Bohannon (12.4 ppg, 41.4% 3p%). They have some great wins out of conference, mainly Maryland and Duke. They are always a hard team to gauge, but this team looks pretty solid, though not as good rebounding as most Wisconsin teams.

Illinois, Sag #58, kenpom offense #67, kenpom defense #40, 5th in conference at 10-7, 18-12
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Clemson, Vanderbilt, Mich St, Wisconsin
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Utah, Bradley, Georgia, Missouri, Gonzaga, Ohio St (twice), Purdue (twice), Mich St,
3P% - 34.1%, Reb. Margin = +2.4 , FT 71.0%, FG 45.2%, Opp. FG 39.9% –
I don't know about this team, the resume looks bad, the stats look bad, this is a one-and-done team, if they even get there.

Minnesota, Sag #57, kenpom offense #38, kenpom defense #53, 6th in conference at 8-9, 17-12
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Butler, Ohio St (w/o Turner), Wisconsin
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Portland, Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Indiana, Michigan (twice)
3P% - 39.3%, Reb. Margin = +1.9 , FT 69.5%, FG 47.1%, Opp. FG 40.0% –
They shoot 3s and play defense! It sounds like a winning formula. They also have some terrible losses, so I don't know what's up with them. They need to do well in the Big Ten Tourney to have any chance.

Northwestern, Sag #73, kenpom offense #27, kenpom defense #163, 8th in conference at 7-10, 18-11
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Notre Dame, NC ST, Purdue,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Butler, Illinois, Iowa, Penn St (TWICE BY DOUBLE DIGITS!!!!)
3P% - 36.5%, Reb. Margin = -2.6 , FT 71.2%, FG 47.1%, Opp. FG 42.7% –
The team was ranked in January... and then went through a hideous funk once the uber-competitive Big Ten season started. I thought after last season, this would be the year that Northwestern finally made the tourney. Now? It looks like they need to win the Big ten tourney to make it... and that's not going to happen. They have lots of 3-point shooters (who aren't great)... but they don't rebound or play defense. It's sad.

Big 10 Preseason Predictions

Well its media day in Big 10 football country. However before the event got started the Big 10 released the predictions by media members . Drum Roll.....and the preseason predictions are Ohio State finishes first followed by Penn State and Michigan State. Offensive player of the year is predicted to be Terrelle Pryor and defensive player of the year Greg Jones (LB for MSU). I'll be a little surprised if Penn State or OSU don't win the Big 10 although before my official projections I think MSU, Iowa, and Illinois have some potential to win the conference. That said I'm a little surprised that Pryor got the nod over established players like Clark (PSU) or Benn (Illinois). Well Pryor oozes athletic talent given the new o-line, WRs and RBs, coupled with expected growing pains I'm not sure how much is hype versus substance in this projection...

College Football Preseason: Already?

In the never ending sports info world ....yes. The Preseason College Magazine have been unleashed en masse as has been summarized here . Phil Steele is supposed to be the gold standard but there's obviously a level of probability in all preseason predictions (if that's not an understatement I don't know what is). Ignoring the national picture (which I'm doing until July) the Big 10 is predicted to shape up with Ohio State and Penn State are expected to vie for the crown, Illinois and Michigan State nipping at their heals. Michigan and Illinois are expected to be among the most improved. Here's a quick few points on each of the schools that I randomly deem worthy of mention


Illinois (last year's record 5-7)
Strengths: Illinois' strength lies in its offense. In particular WR Arrelius Benn is the best playmaker in the Big 10 and will be even better with the addition of highly hyped Florida transfer/poor man's Percy Harvin Jarred Fayson

Questions: Illinois actually had a betteryardage differential last year when they went 5-7 than 2 years ago when they made the Rose Bowl. The difference was turnovers. In particular the Fighting Illinois were 0-6 when they had a negative turnover margin - and that leads us to QB Juice Williams. Will he ever mature?

Iowa (last year record 9-4)
Strengths: Iowa returns eight starters to a defense that was best in the Big 10 (I was shocked too).
Questions: First off Iowa has to replace Shonne Green - who had over a 100 yards rushing in every game of the season. The missing starters on defense were the interior D-Lineman. Quality over quantity?

Michigan State (9-4)
Strengths - Returning defense and an improvement a WR

Questions - They need to replace 93% of their offense without stars Javon Ringer and QB Hoyer.

Michigan (3-9)
Strengths - Reversion to Mean is the technical term for Michigan's strength. There's no way the offense can be as bad or the team lose as many close games. Plus their's DickRod's record of improving in year 2

Questions - Tate Forcier - Pure Freshman QB. Close games and bad offenses improvements are predicated on Forcier not making turnovers and doing better. Or I suppose the question is how much better than last year. I would also note that the defense lost some playmakers

Ohio State (11-2)
Strengths - The strength of OSU this year will be on the inside. The D-Line will be the best its been since 2002 and the interior of the O-Line will be much improved as well.

Questions - Lots of New Faces. From the secondary to the tackles to the linebackers to the WRs to the RBs - Does OSU possess the depth to replace the losses? And of course there's that Pryor fellow and how his passing progresses.....

Penn State (11-2)
Strengths - Most proven backfield in the Big 10 with QB Clarke and RB Roysters face the easiest Big 10 schedule outside of Wisconsin/Northwestern.

Questions - They replace their top 4 WRs (still no leader) and their O/D lines are anything but solidified even after Spring Ball

Wisconsin (7-6)
Strengths - John Clay (RB) I think will lead the Big 10 in rushing. No more sharing the load with Tubs PJ Hill

Questions - Umm what happened to the Badger D and their homefield advantage at Camp Randall? I don't have the first explanation. I will say another season like last year and their coach will be fired. And that's a question...how does the team respond?

Big 10 - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2009

The Big 10 is ranked is just fractions behind the ACC for best conference this year, according to Sagarin. The Big 10, unlike the ACC, is short on top, elite teams and long on teams that are all of the same caliber. An indication of this is that ESPN currently is slating 8 teams to make the dance. Thus, we'll take a look at 9 of them.

Also note... based on an article I read by Luke Winn on SI, it appears that I should be including an extra stat (kenpom's offensive and defensive ratings). Winn claims that "No Final Four team in the past five years has been ranked outside the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (a competition-adjusted figure). And only two Elite Eight teams in the past five years have ranked outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency." Winn also claims that "contenders" have offensive AND defensive ratings in the top 20.

Michigan St, Sag #8, kenpom offense #24, kenpom defense #15, 1st in conference at 10-3, 20-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Texas, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Minnesota (twice), Ohio St (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Maryland, UNC, Northwestern, Penn St, Purdue
3P% - 36.4%, Reb. Margin = +9.9 , FT 75.9%, FG 46.0%, Opp. FG 41.7% –
Mich St relies on sophomore 6'0" PG Kalin Lucas who gets 14.8 ppg, 4.7 assists, 1.9 TOs, and shoots an average? 37.1% 3P%. Mich. St. then has 4 other players who averge between 9ppg and 11ppg. Their bigs, 6' 8" F Raymar Morgan and 6'10" C Goran Suton, get 6.0 rpg and 7.4 rpg to help them maintain an awesome rebounding advantage. Michigan State is always a solid team, with a great coach. The enigma with this year's team is that they lack any marquee wins outside of Texas, as they got blown out by UNC.

Purdue, Sag #10, kenpom offense #79, kenpom defense #2, 2nd in conference at 9-4, 2o-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Boston Coll, Mich St, Davidson
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Oklahoma, Duke, Illinois (twice), Penn St
3P% - 34.4%, Reb. Margin = -0.5 , FT 70.5%, FG 44.9%, Opp. FG 37.1% –
Purdue has more expectations this year, as all the freshmen from last year became sophomores. The most important stat for Purdue? They are 2-3 without 6'8" F Robbie Hummel (w/ losses to Penn St [outrebounded by 15], Ohio St [outrebounded by 16], and Illinois), who gets 12.3 ppg, 7.1 rebs, and a solid 38% 3point %. 6'10" F Jajuan Johnson and 6'4" G E'Twaun Moore lead the way with both getting 13 ppg and 5.9 and 4.9 rpg. Purdue lost in OT to Xavier in the 2nd round of last year's tourney, and if they stay healthy, I look for them to build on their success. The one concerning thing is the rebounding margin. With big star players, they should be able to do that better.

Illinois, Sag #19, kenpom offense #97, kenpom defense #5, 3rd in conference at 9-5, 21-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Missouri, Purdue (twice), Vanderbilt,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Clemson, Michigan, Mich St, Penn St (in an ugly 38-33 loss)
3P% - 34.4%, Reb. Margin = +0.7, FT 71.4%, FG 46.0%, Opp. FG 39.2% –
Illinois have 4 players in double figures, led by 6'9" F Mike Davis at 10.6 ppg, 7.8 reb, and 51.9% FG%. Senior 6'2" G Trent Meachem is their lone 3-point threat, at 42.3%, and knocks in 10.0 ppg. This team plays fantastic defense but has problems offensively (as evidenced by that despicable 38-33 loss to Penn St. I guess the good thing is they got it out of their system, right? I don't think this team has as high of a ceiling, mainly because of that game.

Penn St, Sag #53, kenpom offense #72, kenpom defense #65, 4th in conference at 8-6, 19-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Penn, Georgia Tech, Purdue (split), Mich. St (split), Illinois
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Rhode Island, Temple, Wisconsin (twice)
3P% - 37.4%, Reb. Margin = +3.3 , FT 65.5%, FG 44.0%, Opp. FG 42.3% –
Penn St relies on 3 players and gets almost no production from anyone else. 5'11" G Talor Battle gets 17.3 ppg, 5 assists, 5.2 rebs, and an average 37% 3point%. 6-5" F Jamelle Cornley does 14.6ppg, 6.6 rebs and 6-1" G Stanley Pringle (can't believe he's still playing) gets 12.7ppg, and a blistering 46.7% 3p%. Penn State is an interesting team that is suprsingly above .500 in Big 10 play. If they continue that kind of play, they probably could make the tourney. They don't exactly play good enough defense to think they can win any games in the tourney.

Wisconsin, Sag #27, kenpom offense #14, kenpom defense #60, 4th in conference at 8-6, 17-9
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wis. Milwaukee, Va. Tech, Michigan, Illinois (split), Ohio St,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UConn, Marquette, Texas, Iowa, Northwestern
3P% - 37.0%, Reb. Margin = +3.2 , FT 71.4%, FG 44.8%, Opp. FG 43.7% –
Wisconsin's had a bizarre season, as they had a 6-game Big 10 losing streak in the middle, but are now on a 5-game winning streak. Good luck figuring out this Dr. Jekyll and Hyde. Wisconsin has balanced scoring amongst their top 5, and have two 38% shooters in their backcourt (Hughes and Bohannon).

Ohio St., Sag #28, kenpom offense #44, kenpom defense #54, 6th in conference at 7-6, 17-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Butler, Michigan (twice), Purdue, Minnesota
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: West Virginia, Minnesota, Mich St (twice), Northwestern
3P% - 37.1%, Reb. Margin = -0.5 , FT 68.6%, FG 48.3%, Opp. FG 40.3% –
With Ohio State, they have been inconsistent all season. They beat Notre Dame when they were a top-10 team and Michigan when they were ranked, but have also lost some games by wide margins. They lost David Lighty to injury and there's no word on if he's coming back this season. If he does come back, Ohio State could certainly make noise in the tourney. Ohio State is led by 6'7" Evan Turner who gets 17.2 ppg, 7.3 rebs, and 51.9 FG%. OSU also has two sharpshooters in Buford and Diebler who shoot 36% and 42.6% from 3-point land. In addition, OSU has 7'0" center BJ Mullens who is a bona fide NBA prospect but is extremely inconsistent. He's very skinny and only getting 9ppg and 5 rebs.

Minnesota, Sag #38, kenpom offense #82, kenpom defense #48, 7th in conference at 7-7, 19-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: S. Dakota St, Virginia, Louisville, Ohio St (split), Illinois
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Mich St (twice), Northwestern, Penn St, Michigan
3P% - 34.7%, Reb. Margin = +1.5 , FT 70.8%, FG 44.6%, Opp. FG 40.0% –
Minnesota's marquee victory is over Louisville, when they were in a bit of a struggle early on. They use a lot of players (10 players that play between 12 and 24 minutes per game). It's hard to stereotype them, but it seems like everyone has to chip on the rebounding as they have no real dominant big men.

Michigan, Sag #43, kenpom offense #61, kenpom defense #77, 7th in conference at 7-7, 17-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UCLA, Duke (split), Illinois (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Ohio St (twice), UConn, Mich St, Penn St
3P% - 32.3%, Reb. Margin = -2.1 , FT 75.9%, FG 42.1%, Opp. FG 43.3% –
Michigan has to get to .500 in conference play and finish strong to get an at-large that once seemed guaranteed. Victories over UCLA and Duke should power them through with just an at-large. Michigan is led by 6'5" Manny Harris who gets 17.2 ppg, 7.1 rebs, 4.2 assists but 3.3 turnovers and only 41.5 FG%, and 6'8" DeShawn Sims who gets 14.5 ppg, 7.3 rebs. They have 5 different players who jack up at least three 3-pointers per game and NONE of them shoot over 34.7%. They also get outrebounded all the time. Yuck. They will need to get to .500 in conference and win at least a game or two in the big-10 tourney to advance.

Northwestern, Sag #58, kenpom offense #48, kenpom defense #100, 9th in conference at 5-8, 14-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: DePaul, Minnesota, Mich St, Wisconsin, Ohio St
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Butler, Stanford, Iowa, Purdue, Mich St
3P% - 39.1%, Reb. Margin = -5.2 , FT 68.2%, FG 45.2%, Opp. FG 42.6% –
They have three 3-point shooters, and all of them are needed (38%, 43%, and 41%) because they get outrebounded by one of the largest margins I've seen. They also will need to get to .500 in conference and win at least a game or two in the big-10 tourney to advance. They are a a real longshot.

Big 10: Early 2009 thoughts

In probably one of the last thoughts for awhile on college football so I figured I'd breakdown next years Big 10. Or at least as well as one can before recruiting and spring practice come to pass. While everyone I think here knows my feelings on the structural hindrances the Big 10 faces (as one can see by the breakdown by state in 2008 for recruiting) but that doesn't necessarily affect year to year differences. That said at first glance next year looks for the Big 10 to regain quality in the middle ranks but hardily any team looking to win at the elite (read BCS) level. I'm sorry to say another cold Fall and Bowl season of Big 10 bashing could be in store.

The Elite
Over the past4 years the Big 10 has frankly been dominated by Ohio State and Penn State. No other team has won a share of the Big 10 Championship since 2004. Hence elite category

Penn State:
Good Points: Of the top teams in the Big 10 only Penn State returns its entire backfield. Evan Royster will be one of the top backs and Darryl Evans will probably be the top QB (again)

Bad Points: Penn State is losing its 4 of 5 OL, top 3 receivers, top 3 DEs and their entire secondary

Outlook: Worse

Ohio State
Good Points: Another year under the belt of Terrel Pryor. IF he can take a step forward the offense will be better. The DL loses only one and might be the best its been since 2002.

Bad Points: Losing arguably the top corner, running back and linebacker in this years draft is hard to immediately overcome.

Outlook: Uncertain (guess status quo). Part of the problem for tOSU this year was a horrific offensive line. There will be 3 new starters. How well the new tackles play will influence Pryor's development as well as how much Beanie Wells is missed.


The Second Tier

Iowa
For those that don't remember/were unaware before the recent Penn State/Ohio State run Iowa won portions of 2 of 3 Big 10 titles between 2002-2004. They were the only Big 10 team to win a bowl game and the only Big 10 team to beat Penn State. The biggest (and really only) loss this year for Iowa will be star running back Shonne Green (the Big 10s most productive back this year). If Iowa can find something to replace his production there's no reason to think Iowa won't challenge for a Big 10 title

Outlook: Status Quo/Better

Michigan State
Michigan State took Wisconsin's role this year as that team that can beat everyone in the Big 10 but the top teams. Unfortunately it loses its entire backfield most notably Javon Ringer (who they don't really have a backup for). On the plus side a defense, that was demolished in big games, gets everyone back. Wait is that good?

Outlook: Worse unless an uberfreshman can replace Ringer

Northwestern
Northwestern finished tied for 3rd in the Big 10 this year at 9-4 and nearly beat Missouri (before choking). That said they lose their QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs and 3 DL. Yes depth might be problem for the men of Purple next year.

Outlook: Worse

Minnesota
Minnesota (7-6) improved dramatically from its horrendous 2007 campaign. However the team petered out towards the end as it lost its last 5. That said all the key cogs on offense return and the defense can only get better. In theory. It will will have a young secondary which could be trouble.

Outlook: Better

The Disappointments

Wisconsin
While debatable I don't think any team was as disappointing as Wisconsin this past year. A giant losing streak, a coach underfire, and a blowout loss to Florida State all for a team that many predicted would win the Big 10. I don't think anyone is certain what entirely went wrong as so many aspects from coaching, to defense to QBing was crap. Wisconsin will break in a new QB (although its very unclear who that'll be at this point)

Outlook: Better but not much (for how many teams does uncertainty at QB end up turning out well the next year?)

Illinois
Similiar to Wisconsin its uncertain exactly why Illinois was so bad. Although as opposed to Wisconsin its not a lack of explanations as much as too many: inability to replace Mendenhall, too many turnovers, horrific secondary, bad coaching, etc. Illinois has the talent to be better in theory but that requires Juice Williams to finally turn that corner

Outlook: Better but not by much

Michigan
I'll try to put my biases aside for a second here. While Michigan was expected to suffer a little bit during its transition its hard to argue it should have resulted in the worse year in Michigan football history. In particular the defense simply sucked as exemplified by the "firing" of RichRod's handpicked defensive coordinator. Michigan should be better as more players for the particular system are brought in but by how much? Tate Forcier will be an improvement at QB, but a freshman QB won't mean elite status. Neither will replacing 3 of 4 quality defensivelinemen

Outlook: Better but notby much

The Rest
Purdue
Gets a new QB and a new coach next year. Any bets on how well that'll work?

Indiana
Without a bowl bid, Indiana will be looking for a new coach.


Anyway that's my very early (and as always pessimistic) outlook