Sunday, March 01, 2009

PAC-10 & Mountain West Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2009

The Big 10 is ranked is just fractions behind the ACC for best conference this year, according to Sagarin. The Big 10, unlike the ACC, is short on top, elite teams and long on teams that are all of the same caliber. An indication of this is that ESPN currently is slating 8 teams to make the dance. Thus, we'll take a look at 9 of them.

Also note... based on an article I read by Luke Winn on SI, it appears that I should be including an extra stat (kenpom's offensive and defensive ratings). Winn claims that "
No Final Four team in the past five years has been ranked outside the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (a competition-adjusted figure). And only two Elite Eight teams in the past five years have ranked outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency." Winn also claims that "contenders" have offensive AND defensive ratings in the top 20.

Washington
, Sag #19, kenpom offense #29, kenpom defense #15, 1st in conference at 13-4, 22-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Cleveland St, Ok State, UCLA (split), Arizona St (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Portland, Kansas, Florida, California (twice)
3P% - 33.8%, Reb. Margin = +8.9 , FT 70.1%, FG 45.9%, Opp. FG 42.4% –
The Huskies leading scorer is none other than freshman 5'8" G Isaiah Thomas (15.9 ppg, 2.7assits, 2.8 TOs). He's on a quest to restore goodwill to his name, in the many years that have passed since Isiah Thomas retired from the NBA and created a path of destruction. The Huskies rely on 5'11" Justin Dentmon (15.8 ppg, 46.6% 3P%) and big man 6'7" Jon Brockman (14.6ppg, 11.3 rebounds). There is no clear assists leader, which could prove to be a problem. They also seem to give up a lot of turnovers. I'm actually surprised at how un-inspiring their profile is, considering they are leading the PAC-10.

UCLA, Sag #16, kenpom offense #3, kenpom defense #47, 2nd in conference at 11-5, 22-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: So. Ill, DePaul, Notre Dame, Washington (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Michigan, Texas, Ariz St (twice), Arizona, Wash St
3P% - 40.3%, Reb. Margin = +3.5 , FT 71.1%, FG 50.3%, Opp. FG 45.2% –
UCLA was supposed to have an amazing freshman class, but they haven't been as good as they were hyped to be. That final 4 streak will probably come to an end this season. I'm not even that confident about them making the sweet 16, sadly. They've been stumbling down the stretch, losing 3 of their last 6. They are led by senior G 6'0" Darren Collison (15 ppg, 5 assits, 1.7 steals, 41.5% 3-point, 53.6% FG%) and 6'5" Josh Shipp (13 ppg, 40.2% 3-point), and 6'9" Aboya (9.9 ppg, 6 rebs, 58% FG%).

Arizona St, Sag #22, kenpom offense #10, kenpom defense #24, 3rd in conference at 10-6, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UTEP, BYU, UCLA (twice),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Cal, Baylor, USC, Wash st (twice), Washington (twice)
3P% - 35.9%, Reb. Margin = +2.7 , FT 73.9%, FG 48.3%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
Arizona St is led by a bona fide NBA prospect in James Harden. They have been real inconsistent in conference play, but their numbers look real good across the board (for whatever that is worth). Harden, a 6'5" sophomore, gets 21.2 ppg, 4.2 assists, 5.6 rebs, and 37.9% 3-point %. 6'9" F Jeff Pendergraph gets 13.8 ppg, 8.2 rebs, and 66.8 FG%, while 6'6" G/F Rihards Kuksiks gets 10.4 ppg, 3.8 rebs, on an absurb 47.6% 3 point % (averaing almost 3 threes per game amazingly). I think I like this team the best out of the others from the PAC-10.

California
, Sag #27, kenpom offense #12, kenpom defense #74, 3rd in conference at 10-6, 21-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNLV, DePaul, Utah, Arizona St, Washington (twice),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Fla St, Missouri, Stanford, Oregon St (twice!), UCLA (twice)
3P% - 44.2% (wow!), Reb. Margin = +3.3 , FT 75.8%, FG 49.1%, Opp. FG 43.7% –
This team is led by 3 guards who all shoot 3-pointers, and they have one main forward. The guards are 5'10" Jerome Randle (17.8 ppg, 4.9 assists, 45.1% 3-point), 6'5" Patrick Christopher (14.4 ppg, 3.7 rebs, 40.6 3-point, and 6'6" Theo Robertson (12.3 pg, 3.8 rebs, 54% 3-point, avg 1.7 per 3.2 3-point attempts per game). 6'8" F Jamal Boykin gets 10.2 ppg, 6.6 reb, and 52.9 FG%. The strangest thing is they have 3 losses in conference to teams that have nothing to play for!

Arizona, Sag #40, kenpom offense #8, kenpom defense #100, 5th in conference at 8-8, 18-11
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Gonzaga, Kansas, Washington (split), UCLA (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UAB by 1-point (early on, when they had a full team), Texas A&M by 1-point, UNLV, Stanford, USC (split), Ariz St (twice), Wash St (split
3P% - 39.9%, Reb. Margin = +2.6 , FT 72.6%, FG 47.3%, Opp. FG 42.9% –
It's been a real up-and down season for Arizona. They had one 7 straight in conference - but this was after a 3-game losing streak and now they are on another 3-game losing streak! Arizona, as what seems usual for them, does not play defense well at all. They are led by 6'10" Jordan Hill (18 ppg, 11.1 rebs, 54.8% FG%), 6'7" F Chase Budinger (17.8 ppg, 6.6 rebs, 41.6% 3-point), and 5'10" G Nic Wise (14.8 ppg, 4.7 assists, 42.6% 3-point). Arizona will need to win some games between now and selection sunday to get chosen, even w/ the wins over Gonzaga and Kansas.

Washington St, Sag #59, kenpom offense #102, kenpom defense #13, 6th in conference at 8-9, 16-13
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Idaho?, Ariz St (twice), UCLA (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Pitt, Baylor, Gonzaga, LSU, USC (twice), Stanford, Oregon St (split)
3P% - 35.9%, Reb. Margin = +3.2 , FT 77.3%, FG 44.0%, Opp. FG 38.8% –
This team needs a lot of wins at the end to have a chance. No real quality wins outside conference play. They are led by balanced scoring from 6'1" G Taylor Rochestie (13.3 ppg, 4.7 assists, 41.2% 3-point), 6'6" G Klay Thompson (13.0 ppg, 4.1 rebs, 42.6% 3-point), 6'10" C Aron Baynes (12ppg, 7.3 rebs, 58.3% FG%).

USC, Sag #47, kenpom offense #70, kenpom defense #25, 8th in conference at 7-9, 16-12
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: N. Dakota St, Georgia Tech, Ariz St (split), Arizona (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Seton Hall, Missouri, Oklahoma, UCLA (twice), Washington (twice), Stanford (split)
3P% - 32.6%, Reb. Margin = +5.2 , FT 67.1%, FG 46.7%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
They've lost 6 of 7, so now they need to win almost every game. Heralded freshman DeMar DeRozan is nowhere near as skilled as OJ Mayo was last year. 6'5" Dwight Lewis gets 15.4 ppg, 3.1 reb, 39.4% 3-point, 6'9" F Taj Gibson gets 13.8ppg, 9.3 rebs, and 57.5% FG%, 6'7" DeRozan gets 12.6 ppg, 2.2 TOs, 5.5 rebs, and 50% FG%.

Mountain West

The Mountain West conference this season is just fractional points behind the SEC in the Sagarin conference rankings. It is completely unclear which teams from this group will get bids, but it seems like this conference could snag 3 bids given certain outcomes during championship week. Utah and BYU are teams that should be considered for winning games in the tourney.

Utah, Sag #25, kenpom offense #44, kenpom defense #30, 1st in conference at 10-3, 20-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wis. Green Bay, Ole Miss, Oregon, Gonzaga, LSU (by 30!), BYU (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Southwest Baptist! (by one), Idaho St, Cal, Oklahoma, Utah St, San Diego St (split), UNLV (split), BYU (split)
3P% - 37.8%, Reb. Margin = +5.4 , FT 78.5%, FG 48.0%, Opp. FG 40.7% –
Utah has a very good ranking, which appears to be powered by wins over Gonzaga and LSU. They are led by leading senior Australian scorer 7'2" C Luke Nevill (17.3 ppg, 2.7 blocks, 8.3 rebs, 61.5% FG%). NBA Draft Express has a bio on him, but they don't expect him to get drafted because of his lack of athleticism and quickness. I'm still sure there's a good chance he'll be drafted in the 2nd round if Utah wins a tournament game. Utah also gets balanced scoring from 5 other players averaging between 8 and 12ppg. The sharpshooters are 6'3" G Lawrence Borha (12ppg, 42.7% 3point), and 6'5" Junior G Luke Drca (8.4 ppg, 3.4 assists, 46.8% 3point) and 6'8" F Shaun Green (10.4 ppg, 38.3% 3-point).

BYU
, Sag #23, kenpom offense #17, kenpom defense #16, 2nd in conference at 10-4, 22-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Utah St, Tulsa, San Diego St (twice), Utah (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UNLV (twice), Ariz St (by 1), Wake (by 7), New Mexico, Utah (split)
3P% - 39.4%, Reb. Margin = +4.4 , FT 71.8%, FG 49.8%, Opp. FG 40.2% –
This is an interesting team, in that they lost their two marquee non-conference games by just a handful of points. They also sport really amazing statistics (I don't ever remember seeing such a high 3-point %), but I fear these are padded by their very easy non-conference schedule (outside of Ariz St, Wake, and Utah st). They have 3 leading scorers in: 6'7" G Lee Cummard (projected 2nd-round nba pick) (17.2 ppg, 6.3 rebs, 41.1% 3-point, 55.4% FG%), 6'6" G/F Jonathon Tavernari (17.1 ppg, 7.2 rebs, 38.4% 3-point), and 6'2" G Jimmer Fredette 15.3 ppag, 4.5 assists, 39.8 3-point%). They still will need to at least make their conference semis to have a chance, if not make the conference finals.

New Mexico, Sag #63, kenpom offense #36, kenpom defense #52, 2nd in conference at 10-4, 19-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: San Diego, Ole Miss, BYU (split), UNLV (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Creighton, UCF, VCU, Drake, UTEP, Texas Tech, San Diego St (split)
3P% - 39.6%, Reb. Margin = +2.7 , FT 69.5%, FG 46.6%, Opp. FG 40.0% –
Now this team has the highest 3-point % I've ever seen! Their profile is a lot worse than BYU's, even w/ the split in head-to-head action, because they've lost to a whole sort of bad teams. They are led in scoring by senior 6'5" Tony Danridge (14.3 ppg, 4.3 rebs), and the sharpshooting is done by 6'7" Chad Toppert (10.9 ppg, 44.4% 3-point) and 6'6" Roman Martinez (10.7ppg, 41.6% 3-point).

San Diego St
, Sag #51, kenpom offense #60, kenpom defense #44, 4th in conference at 9-5, 19-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: San Diego, Utah (split), New Mexico (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Ariz St, Arizona, St. Mary's (the good one in WCC), BYU (twice), Wyoming (split),
3P% - 34.8%, Reb. Margin = +1.7 , FT 70.4%, FG 44.7%, Opp. FG 42.1% –
Ok, these guys have to win the conference tournament. No other way. Not wasting any more time here.

UNLV, Sag #54, kenpom offense #78, kenpom defense #38, 5th in conference at 8-6, 20-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UTEP, Arizona, Louisville, Utah (split), BYU (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: California, Cincy, TCU, Col St, Wyoming
3P% - 35.8%, Reb. Margin = -2.4 , FT 68.1%, FG 43.2%, Opp. FG 42.6% –
Their profile is more interesting, because they have wins over Arizona, Louisville, and a sweep of BYU with a split of conference leader Utah. If they get to the conference finals, that should be enough then. They are led by Wink Adams (that's really his name) (14.6ppg, 4.2 rebs) and Rene Rougeau (11ppg, 6.8 rebs). They don't shoot well as a team and they tend to get outrebounded, meaning that they shouldn't be trusted in the tourney though.

Friday, February 27, 2009

Clowns and the NBApocalypse

Clowns Intent on Committing Sepuku
And so the Kellen Winslow II era in Cleveland has come to an end. In short order the new Mangina era shipped out the Browns best offensive player. K2 has been at the heart of a number of a number of controversy's from his injuries, to battles of staph infections, to new contract demands. However on the field there has been no more consistent and productive offensive player (since his return). The Browns received in exchange "undisclosed draft picks" which is probably short hand for a 2nd and late rounder although who knows about that. Coupled with the rumor orgy surrounding the Browns best (only?) defensive player Shaun Rogers, rebuilding at Berea is in high gear which I assume is kowtowing to Mangina or getting shipped. I fully expect Brayleon Edwards and a number of other players to be shipped or cut. Full house cleaning after all for Mumbles Jr.

The problem in all of the circumstances (or one of them) is communication, given Fortress Browns, is missing. Fans are left in the dark, the local media is the in the dark, players are in the dark, etc. The only source of information is gossip websites and very large gossip websites (ESPN). Who know whats happens, why its happening, etc. Making major moves and not explaining yourself is not the way to treat a fan base - certainly not if the goal is to have fans.


NBA and the Economy
While the Clowns suckitude is a personal issue a bigger issue (in terms of the number of fans) and economically (more cities) is the NBA's current problems. While I'm loathe to do it, I recommend a read through on Bill Simmons column today on the state of the Finances of the NBA. I assume the article has come out of NBA's recent $200 million increase in credit line. Simmons notes that not only will the bottom line be the only issue pushing NBA franchises but also it will increase the likelihood of a NBA strike in 2011 and an increase in mobile franchises. As someone outside the sports finance world, it appears the NBA is poorly positioned relative to the other major sports. With quickly vanishing level of spending (but corporate and individual) that will last for a long time, its hard to gauge how severe the ramifications will be. The modern sports era has simply never faced an economic situation of this magnitude and its uncertain what it means. If Simmons is correct in that " Someone In The Know told me that 20 of the 30 NBA teams will lose money this season …" than is fairly ominous rumblings already for the NBA as at minimum the next season (and probably the next few seasons AFTER that) will be AT BEST no better

No way

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3939777

The browns have traded kellen winslow to tampa bay for draft picks. i am beside myself with anger over this move.
the messed up part is that draft day hasnt even come yet, and ive already posted 2 stories in a week about how utterly stupid the browns management has been.
im in shock.
laz

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Boxing is a sport

We don't get my many boxing stories. So here's a good one. It speaks of one of boxing's greatest rises to glory ever.

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/new_mike_tyson_documentary?utm_source=a-section

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Basketball Roundup 2/25

Well in theory a lot going on in the NBA world. So q quick shot of things that I think about thinking

Trade Deadline Winner/Losers
Stop wasting ink. If the biggest impact on the NBA season at this moment is Rafer Alston well then you need to find new topics. Nelson ended his year with shoulder surgery and left a gaping hole in Orlando land. They were still a few steps behind the Big 3 (statistically and its hard to imagine the team would outperform in the playoffs) so short of one of their current players exceeding how they're playing stick a fork in them

Boston's Heft
Somewhere Red is chuckling. Boston has become the place to be for free agents and as such they appear to be on the verge of bringing in two cast off veterans in Miki Moore (PF) and Starbury (rouge PG). If basketball were baseball there's simply no risk to bringing in fresh faces let alone somehow there's an I in Marbury but its not. How players interact (i.e. share the ball, rotate on defense, etc.) matters a great deal. Will the moves payoff? I'm coming around to the idea that Boston will win a championship in which case the moves will be deemed a success

Lakers Lonely
I realize the Spurs are making a big push as of late but to channel Steven A for a moment (ughh so dirty) I just don't it. The Spurs didn't have enough last year and the Lakers improved more than the Spurs did since last year ergo..... The NBA playoffs first round honestly might be the most boring playoff round in the history of sports this year (ok done channeling Steven A)

Cavs Road Trip
The Cavs have a combination of crisis and opportunity (Crippotunity?) as they play a huge road stretch (8 out the next 10 away from the Q) at the same KG is crippled with swimmer's ear or whatever. Can they push ahead or at least stay even? A potential Game 7 in Cleveland is a big deal and the next few weeks might determine that.

Another great start for Cleveland

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2009/02/browns_tackle_shaun_rogers_rep.html

This article tells how much probowl defensive tackle Shaun Rogers hates the "new regime" under Mangini and wants out of Cleveland. What a great way to start a new season. The owner cleans house and brings in new coaches and management across the board, and right away one of the team's top players says "F*** it, I'm out!"Just wonderful. You know, it's crap like this that makes me actually consider becoming a Steeler fan. I know it's blasphemous, but I've actually considered it. It's not like the Browns are in a temporary funk, the team just keeps falling on its face, and I really don't a way out in the next few years. Ridiculous.

Laz

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Big 10 - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2009

The Big 10 is ranked is just fractions behind the ACC for best conference this year, according to Sagarin. The Big 10, unlike the ACC, is short on top, elite teams and long on teams that are all of the same caliber. An indication of this is that ESPN currently is slating 8 teams to make the dance. Thus, we'll take a look at 9 of them.

Also note... based on an article I read by Luke Winn on SI, it appears that I should be including an extra stat (kenpom's offensive and defensive ratings). Winn claims that "
No Final Four team in the past five years has been ranked outside the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (a competition-adjusted figure). And only two Elite Eight teams in the past five years have ranked outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency." Winn also claims that "contenders" have offensive AND defensive ratings in the top 20.

Michigan St, Sag #8, kenpom offense #24, kenpom defense #15, 1st in conference at 10-3, 20-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Texas, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Minnesota (twice), Ohio St (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Maryland, UNC, Northwestern, Penn St, Purdue
3P% - 36.4%, Reb. Margin = +9.9 , FT 75.9%, FG 46.0%, Opp. FG 41.7% –
Mich St relies on sophomore 6'0" PG Kalin Lucas who gets 14.8 ppg, 4.7 assists, 1.9 TOs, and shoots an average? 37.1% 3P%. Mich. St. then has 4 other players who averge between 9ppg and 11ppg. Their bigs, 6' 8" F Raymar Morgan and 6'10" C Goran Suton, get 6.0 rpg and 7.4 rpg to help them maintain an awesome rebounding advantage. Michigan State is always a solid team, with a great coach. The enigma with this year's team is that they lack any marquee wins outside of Texas, as they got blown out by UNC.

Purdue, Sag #10, kenpom offense #79, kenpom defense #2, 2nd in conference at 9-4, 2o-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Boston Coll, Mich St, Davidson
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Oklahoma, Duke, Illinois (twice), Penn St
3P% - 34.4%, Reb. Margin = -0.5 , FT 70.5%, FG 44.9%, Opp. FG 37.1% –
Purdue has more expectations this year, as all the freshmen from last year became sophomores. The most important stat for Purdue? They are 2-3 without 6'8" F Robbie Hummel (w/ losses to Penn St [outrebounded by 15], Ohio St [outrebounded by 16], and Illinois), who gets 12.3 ppg, 7.1 rebs, and a solid 38% 3point %. 6'10" F Jajuan Johnson and 6'4" G E'Twaun Moore lead the way with both getting 13 ppg and 5.9 and 4.9 rpg. Purdue lost in OT to Xavier in the 2nd round of last year's tourney, and if they stay healthy, I look for them to build on their success. The one concerning thing is the rebounding margin. With big star players, they should be able to do that better.

Illinois, Sag #19, kenpom offense #97, kenpom defense #5, 3rd in conference at 9-5, 21-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Missouri, Purdue (twice), Vanderbilt,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Clemson, Michigan, Mich St, Penn St (in an ugly 38-33 loss)
3P% - 34.4%, Reb. Margin = +0.7, FT 71.4%, FG 46.0%, Opp. FG 39.2% –
Illinois have 4 players in double figures, led by 6'9" F Mike Davis at 10.6 ppg, 7.8 reb, and 51.9% FG%. Senior 6'2" G Trent Meachem is their lone 3-point threat, at 42.3%, and knocks in 10.0 ppg. This team plays fantastic defense but has problems offensively (as evidenced by that despicable 38-33 loss to Penn St. I guess the good thing is they got it out of their system, right? I don't think this team has as high of a ceiling, mainly because of that game.

Penn St, Sag #53, kenpom offense #72, kenpom defense #65, 4th in conference at 8-6, 19-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Penn, Georgia Tech, Purdue (split), Mich. St (split), Illinois
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Rhode Island, Temple, Wisconsin (twice)
3P% - 37.4%, Reb. Margin = +3.3 , FT 65.5%, FG 44.0%, Opp. FG 42.3% –
Penn St relies on 3 players and gets almost no production from anyone else. 5'11" G Talor Battle gets 17.3 ppg, 5 assists, 5.2 rebs, and an average 37% 3point%. 6-5" F Jamelle Cornley does 14.6ppg, 6.6 rebs and 6-1" G Stanley Pringle (can't believe he's still playing) gets 12.7ppg, and a blistering 46.7% 3p%. Penn State is an interesting team that is suprsingly above .500 in Big 10 play. If they continue that kind of play, they probably could make the tourney. They don't exactly play good enough defense to think they can win any games in the tourney.

Wisconsin, Sag #27, kenpom offense #14, kenpom defense #60, 4th in conference at 8-6, 17-9
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wis. Milwaukee, Va. Tech, Michigan, Illinois (split), Ohio St,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UConn, Marquette, Texas, Iowa, Northwestern
3P% - 37.0%, Reb. Margin = +3.2 , FT 71.4%, FG 44.8%, Opp. FG 43.7% –
Wisconsin's had a bizarre season, as they had a 6-game Big 10 losing streak in the middle, but are now on a 5-game winning streak. Good luck figuring out this Dr. Jekyll and Hyde. Wisconsin has balanced scoring amongst their top 5, and have two 38% shooters in their backcourt (Hughes and Bohannon).

Ohio St., Sag #28, kenpom offense #44, kenpom defense #54, 6th in conference at 7-6, 17-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Butler, Michigan (twice), Purdue, Minnesota
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: West Virginia, Minnesota, Mich St (twice), Northwestern
3P% - 37.1%, Reb. Margin = -0.5 , FT 68.6%, FG 48.3%, Opp. FG 40.3% –
With Ohio State, they have been inconsistent all season. They beat Notre Dame when they were a top-10 team and Michigan when they were ranked, but have also lost some games by wide margins. They lost David Lighty to injury and there's no word on if he's coming back this season. If he does come back, Ohio State could certainly make noise in the tourney. Ohio State is led by 6'7" Evan Turner who gets 17.2 ppg, 7.3 rebs, and 51.9 FG%. OSU also has two sharpshooters in Buford and Diebler who shoot 36% and 42.6% from 3-point land. In addition, OSU has 7'0" center BJ Mullens who is a bona fide NBA prospect but is extremely inconsistent. He's very skinny and only getting 9ppg and 5 rebs.

Minnesota, Sag #38, kenpom offense #82, kenpom defense #48, 7th in conference at 7-7, 19-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: S. Dakota St, Virginia, Louisville, Ohio St (split), Illinois
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Mich St (twice), Northwestern, Penn St, Michigan
3P% - 34.7%, Reb. Margin = +1.5 , FT 70.8%, FG 44.6%, Opp. FG 40.0% –
Minnesota's marquee victory is over Louisville, when they were in a bit of a struggle early on. They use a lot of players (10 players that play between 12 and 24 minutes per game). It's hard to stereotype them, but it seems like everyone has to chip on the rebounding as they have no real dominant big men.

Michigan, Sag #43, kenpom offense #61, kenpom defense #77, 7th in conference at 7-7, 17-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UCLA, Duke (split), Illinois (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Ohio St (twice), UConn, Mich St, Penn St
3P% - 32.3%, Reb. Margin = -2.1 , FT 75.9%, FG 42.1%, Opp. FG 43.3% –
Michigan has to get to .500 in conference play and finish strong to get an at-large that once seemed guaranteed. Victories over UCLA and Duke should power them through with just an at-large. Michigan is led by 6'5" Manny Harris who gets 17.2 ppg, 7.1 rebs, 4.2 assists but 3.3 turnovers and only 41.5 FG%, and 6'8" DeShawn Sims who gets 14.5 ppg, 7.3 rebs. They have 5 different players who jack up at least three 3-pointers per game and NONE of them shoot over 34.7%. They also get outrebounded all the time. Yuck. They will need to get to .500 in conference and win at least a game or two in the big-10 tourney to advance.

Northwestern, Sag #58, kenpom offense #48, kenpom defense #100, 9th in conference at 5-8, 14-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: DePaul, Minnesota, Mich St, Wisconsin, Ohio St
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Butler, Stanford, Iowa, Purdue, Mich St
3P% - 39.1%, Reb. Margin = -5.2 , FT 68.2%, FG 45.2%, Opp. FG 42.6% –
They have three 3-point shooters, and all of them are needed (38%, 43%, and 41%) because they get outrebounded by one of the largest margins I've seen. They also will need to get to .500 in conference and win at least a game or two in the big-10 tourney to advance. They are a a real longshot.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

NBA Trade Deadline 2009

Well, the NBA Trade Deadline came and went and there were no big deals. Here are the highlights:

Best trade for a contender
Orlando gets PG Rafer Alston, Houston gets PG Kyle Lowry, Memphis gets a 1st round pick of Orlando's.

I think this was an absolute steal on Orlando's part. Orlando lost PG Jameer Nelson and had been using a bunch of awful PGs... and this had resulted in the Magic losing 4 of their last 7 games. The Magic had to do something, and they miraculously got a bona fide starting PG. But at the cost of a low 1st round pick? And Alston's only due $5 mill this year, and $5 mill next year? This was a major steal and makes me scared for the Cavs playing Orlando again. Yes, Alston isn't as good as Nelson, but it still was amazing the Magic could land such a productive player for basically nothing.

As for Memphis, I'm just so angry at them. They just cut $1.1 mill and $2 mill from next year's salary but they could have at least gotten a player in return. It's almost like they aren't even trying. No wait, we already know they aren't trying. At least they have Marc Gasol, OJ Mayo, and Rudy Gay. You can make fun sentences with those three last names.

Most Confusing Trade
Chicago getting PF Brad Miller, SG John Salmons, Sacramento getting Nocioni and Drew Gooden
I just am having a hard time wrapping my head around this one. The Bulls swapped PFs (Brad Miller and Gooden). Now the Bulls have another SG. Now the Bulls have Hinrich, Salmons, and Ben Gordon to play opposite PG Derrick Rose. I'm just not sure that this is such a big boost. Is Salmons getting minutes over the other guys? I guess so. Is that a big improvement? I have no idea.
As for the Kings, Everyone knows the Kings did this just to save money next year.

Most Comedic Trade
Chicago getting Tim Thomas, Jerome James, and A. Roberson, Knicks getting Larry Hughes -
This was the most comedic move of the night. This was a complete wash salary-wise but was more like two teams just trading parts they don't want. The funniest thing was remembering that when Tim Thomas was last in Chicago, crazy coach Scott Skiles wouldn't let him play and he sat at home for half a season before waiving him in 2006, and then the Suns promptly picked him up. Tim Thomas was then awesome in the playoffs which led Thomas to his current contract ($6 million per year). I wonder if Tim Thomas will be allowed to play this time?

The Premature Celebration Trade
Hornets don't get Wilcox and Joe Smith, Oklahoma City Thundercats don't get Tyson Chandler
The Hornets were dumping Tyson Chandler for two expiring contracts due to financial problems... only thing is, the Chandler failed his physical because of a turf toe condition so the trade never went through.
The funny thing is: The doctor who failed Chandler is the one who performed the surgery on the toe.
And the funnier thing is: Chandler says the doctor told him "I have no doubt you can play on it. I'm just saying it could take a turn for the worse if you come down on somebody's foot or hyperextend it or something".
The sad thing is: As much as I was lamenting the end of Chris Paul and the Hornets having any chance at getting out of the 1st round, I started getting real psyched about the Thundercats' chances of making the playoffs. I even went to youtube.com and watched the theme song for old times sake.

I mean, they would have had Tyson Chandler, Kevin Durant, PG Russell Westbrook, and SF Jeff Green! They would quickly become one of the favorite teams to watch as well as succeed with a bona fide center who could play defense against anyone. Now, I'm just sad that I can't get excited about the Thundercats (but I should be happy for Chris Paul). At least we still have the theme song!

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Let's Make March Madness Interesting (more so)

Only a couple weeks from now, sports' greatest tournament gets under way, MARCH MADNESS!!!!!!
I propose that the back seat drivers all come up with a scheme to make it even more interesting. I suggest that everyone submits picks before the tournament as to their picks for the sweet sixteen, picks for the final four, and the champ. Each of the rounds counts for a certain amount of points. After the tournament, whoever has the most points is the winner, and is worthy of a reward on the blog. For example, everyone else has to write a blog article at the winner's choosing (it can be the same for everyone, or individualized).

I don't know, it could be fun. Anyone on board with this, or have any alternate rules/suggestions?
Laz

It's Never Bud's Fault

In yet another staggering example of spineless self-absolution (no doubt a means to preserve his $17M salary), the grand poobah of Major League Baseball is telling everyone that he’s not to blame for the so-called “steroids era” in the game.

What ever happened to the notion that true leadership came with a “buck stops here” mentality? Instead of simply taking responsibility for the complexion of the game during his tenure as commissioner, Selig prefers to blame everyone else. That’s exactly the kind of behavior that we’ve come to expect from the used car dealer from Milwaukee.

Bud Selig lacks even one iota of any endearing or sympathetic characteristics. He is a completely indecent, dishonorable, self-interested and corrupt individual and he commands no respect whatsoever. Although I don’t advocate Congressional encroachment onto MLB turf, I would welcome an exhaustive investigation of Selig’s practices with the sole motivation being a potential trap for future perjury charges against him. I’ve never known someone who deserves it more than he does.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Mighty Mailbag: Presidents Day Edition


Well it's Presidents day which means for many people a day off from work. Or in theory that's what I assume is what used to happen when the Federal government existed beyond hunting down dangerous celebrities. Anyway in honor of President's Day a few pieces of mail from my bag.


Mighty, Who right now is the best NCAA basketball team? Answer me!
-Mel Arky

This year it's nearly impossible to say who is the best. There's lots of good teams and much like lining up a 100 cans of paint that slowly turn from white to black its hard to say what divides the elites from the potential elite. Nonetheless I recommend everyone to tune in Monday night for Pittsburgh v. UConn. UConn had been my #1 team until one of their best (Dyson) went down for the year. The matchup to watch is Dajuan Blair, who is built and plays like Charles Barkley, short thick PF versus Hasheem Thabeet, an Alonzo Mourning esque scorer and shotblocker. The other team I'd put in that category is UNC who has the best player in the NCAA - Ty Lawson.

Mighty - What's Up with the World Baseball Classic?
-Claire D. Ayre

Well 16 countries starting March 6th will do battle until countries eliminated at first via round robin action or via bankrupcy(whichever comes first). Outside of a slew of players pulling out of the WBC the hoopla has been fairly muted (or at least relative to Spring Training). It should be interesting to see how much interest it generates the 2nd time around.

Losers of the WBC have to donate to the IMF

Mighty - You said you'd call but never did, what's up with that?
- Bar Refaeli

This is more of a public statement. Never piss off a super hot model that knows how to kill people.

Mighty - What's your greatest fear?
-Dick Haed

The basement horse mutates into a 50 foot tall killing machine.


Know Fear

Mighty - What's the analogy you'd make to Steve Kerr's reign?
-Joe King

Well the easy one is Matt Millen in that we all know not matter how badly he screws up Kerr will be right back on tv cause apparently TV executives feel Americans love watching horrible failures give out their opinion. Honestly short of Kerr getting arrested for being a crystal meth dealer I can't think of a way he could appear to be a bigger bungler.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

I Couldn't Have Said It Any Better...

In honor of the upcoming baseball season, I would like to reiterate my intense dislike for the commissioner of Major League Baseball, Allan H. “Bud” Selig. Few enterprises in world history have been run as ineptly as Selig has run baseball and yet remarkably, in spite of him, the sport continues to thrive under his so-called leadership. It’s a testament to the intense loyalty of baseball fans that we haven’t collectively said “enough is enough.”

In any case, Maury Brown wrote a brilliant open letter to Commissioner Selig. This letter beats the same drum I’ve been banging on for years but it bears repeating because the crimes Selig has committed are so egregious that it’s a wonder the United States Congress hasn’t called him in for a mock-execution style grilling, they way they’re so fond of doing.

Friday, February 13, 2009

Major League 1 Part 2

Cheers and Jeers: Spring Feeling Cocktail


Ingredients:


Echoing Hitman's comments Pitchers, Catchers and Generally Spring Training is a great time. Despite my feelings that baseball is fake, like boxing, and wish it were more real, like professional wrestling, its hard not to be happy about spring training. There's two reasons I particularly like Spring Training for the over the hill and almost theres. There's just something pure and enjoyable watching as the various minor leaguers try to make a professional roster. You can see the general feeling their way out against their idols, straining to figure out what professional competition is about, and trying to dethrone individuals that have guaranteed contracts. Hope blossoms anew for every .300+ minor leaguer or 97 mph throwing young gun.

However equally enjoyable (at least for me) is the reappearance of over the hills. Usually (at least for the Indians) old time players that I enjoyed rooting for as a youth try out their managerial and tutorial skills in spring time. This year Frank Viola, for example, will be teaching the art of throwing while wearing a mustache, in Arizona to young Indians. And how can you not be excited about that?


As always the Indians must overcome the basement horse to succeed at Jacob's Field

Cheers: To Mo Williams being named to the all-star game. Cavs owner Dan Gilbert was quoted as saying ""In fact, we think it is fantacular, extraordulous and phenomerful.""

Jeers: To media navel gazing. Of all the A-Rod spectacle I think one of the more annoying is the trend of analyzing A-Rod's "performance" with his interview with Peter Gammons. " Did A-Rod act contrite enough?" seems to be the common theme which really exposes the kabbuki of it all. Find the athlete, shame him, force him into an interview where he apologizes and then the media can begin the great healing process. The navel gazing just shows how faux the press outrage really is.

What exactly were you thinking when you swiped those picnic baskets?

Jeers: To this year's QB draft Class. When Matt Freeman of K-State and proud parent of over 34 INTs is considered borderline First Round Status you know its an empty class.

Jeers: To potential rules changes. The NCAA is considering making (some?) taunting fouls a live ball foul which would mean touchdowns would/could be negated. Which is categorically stupid.

Cheers: To Joaquin Phoenix on Letterman. I'm not sure why you decided to go all Andy Kaufman but I salute your insanity

And your cheers and Jeers gal of the week is.... whoever your hanging out with for Valentines Day (provided they are wearing red lingerie)



The Four Greatest Words in the English Language



"Pitchers and Catchers Report"


Happy spring, everybody!

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

What Are The Nationals Smoking?

The Washington Nationals have reportedly signed Adam Dunn to a two-year, $20 million contract.

We've been reading so much about how (a) the economy is affecting free agency, and (b) in particular, the poor economy is why so many players who might be commodities in other years are finding themselves without contracts as spring training begins. We're expecting that most of these guys - Bobby Abreu and Dunn among them - would eventually sign for much less than they'd have received in past seasons.

So what the hell are the Nationals doing paying $10m for a guy who's probably desperate for half of that? That the Nats need his power, and may be able to swallow his poor batting average, isn't the point. You can't expect to compete when you throw away money, especially if you're not a big-spending team. Washington just paid as much as $5m a year more than they needed to. That's enough for a veteran player that now they can't afford to sign.

In other words, more of the same from a wayward franchise.

ESPN Never Lets Facts Get In The Way Of A Bad Story

Here is yet another example of horrendous sports reporting, once again courtesy of ESPN.com.

Keeping in mind that Tim Graham wishes to convince us that the Jets’ acquisition of Brett Favre was “an utter failure”, let’s run down the inaccuracies and obfuscations in bullet-point style, just as the author does:

● The acquisition of Brett Favre was finalized on August 6, 2008. The acquisitions of Alan Faneca, Damien Woody, Tony Richardson, Calvin Pace and Kris Jenkins took place on March 1, March 2, March 6, March 3, and February 29, 2008, respectively. I don’t see how five players who predated Favre on the roster – all by no less than five months – can be attributed as “consequences of the decision to bring Favre aboard.” That’s what I call a fuzzy timeline!
● In 2007, the Jets top two quarterbacks (Chad Pennington/Kellen Clemens) combined for 19 interceptions in 309 pass attempts. Favre threw two more interceptions in 2008 than the 2007 Jets duo in 213 more attempts. Perspective is important sometimes.
● The defense gave up an average of 24.4 points a game in those final five games (DEN, SF, BUF, SEA, MIA). According to their ranks among all 32 NFL teams in total offense and points scored, these five opponents were ranked an average of 18th and 21st, respectively, in those two categories. You can blame Favre all you want, but he can’t control what happened to a defense that couldn’t stop some of the NFL’s weaker offenses.
● Hindsight much? Chad Pennington had an incredible season for the much-improved Miami Dolphins. But to expect that same season from Pennington in New York had he not been cut would’ve represented nothing short of wishful thinking. You can’t just transplant statistics from one team to another.
● The fact that people lost their jobs is totally irrelevant. Eric Mangini’s firing had as much to do with his previous work and his personality as it had to do with the Jets’ acquisition of Favre. Furthermore, his safe landing in Cleveland is even less salient a point in the current discussion.
● I won’t even address this feeble attempt at humor.
● Injuries happen. Chad Pennington would tell you that too…
● I can’t speak to the tension Favre may or may not have created in the Jets locker room. But you can’t argue that point and then cite Thomas Jones’s public criticism of Favre as evidence of Favre’s having created tension. Wouldn’t that be Thomas Jones creating tension in this case?
● Is a third-round draft pick that steep a cost for one season of Brett Favre?

Please note that this post is not intended to exonerate Brett Favre for his role in the Jets collapse down the stretch. Certainly, the Jets’ inability to make the playoffs after such a good start to the season was embarrassing to the franchise and a collective failure on the parts of all 53 players, their coaches, and everyone else involved. But to somehow label the acquisition of Favre as a failure for the reasons cited makes no sense to me. The end result didn’t work out but the decision to bring him to New York – for what amounted to be only a third round pick – seems not only defensible to me, but absolutely the right move to have made.

My dislike of Favre is well known. But I can’t stand sloppy reporting. I won’t tolerate assholes at ESPN spinning stories and fudging information to prove a point.

Duke v. UNC

While OSU v. Michigan takes top billing in these parts for college football no college basketball match up rivals Duke v. UNC. Evil v. Good. Rich v. Poor. Private v. Public. Conservative v. Liberal. East Coast v. South. I of course was sucked into the rivalry when Dean Smith roamed the sidelines and Coach K wasn't an advertising slogan (just a foul mouthed jerk). Nonetheless tonight I recommend tuning into Duke v. UNC for some quality basketball and good quality hatred. As the appetizer is UConn (the number 1 team in the country) v. their arch-rival Syracuse. When you have potentially 3 1 seeds playing odd things happen (like basement horses)

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

ACC - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2009

The Super Bowl has ended and it's now time to pour full attention on NCAA Basketball! It will also be a nice distraction from the continual bad news about the economy and the fact that everyone's doing steroids. Look at the bright side - at least none of the players are actually androids pretending to be humans.

Anyway, from what little info I've been able to gather to this point, the mid-majors (aside from Gonzaga, Davidson, Butler, and St. Mary's) are a complete mess this year and there is a real lack of candidates for at-large bids from the mid-majors. As a result, I'm skipping the MVC this year and here are the conferences I'm looking to cover this season:

Week of 2/9 - ACC
Week of 2/16 - Big 10
Week of 2/23 - PAC-10 & Mountain West
Week of 3/2 - Big East
Week of 3/9 - Pot Luck

Before we get into the ACC, I do want to touch on the fact that my statistical winning team in 2008, based on stats, was Notre Dame. They ended up losing in the 2nd round by 20 to Washington State. In 2007, I selected Maryland, but I did disregard their rebounding margin for some mysterious reason. Maryland lost in the 2nd round as well that year. Though Notre Dame had a great rebounding margin, I think the problem that doesn't get analyzed is the PG play. I will try to take PG play, or at least ball handling, into account this year by focusing on assists and turnovers per game for the team.

As for the ACC... it's currently the highest rated conference in the nation according to Sagarin (though the Big 10 and Big east are just fractional points behind).

UNC, Sag #3, kenpom offense #1, kenpom defense #21, 1st in conference at 7-2, 21-2
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Notre Dame, Mich St, Clemson
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Boston Coll, Wake (their only loss)
3P% - 38.8%, Reb. Margin = +7.5 , FT 74.9%, FG 48.8%, Opp. FG 40.0% –
Obviously, UNC is very talented and has the potential to win the whole thing. It's amazing how well they are doing considering they've already lost like 3 players to injuries.

Duke, Sag #2, kenpom offense #7, kenpom defense #15, 1st in conference at 7-2, 20-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Purdue, Xavier (by a lot), Georgetown
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Michigan, Wake, Clemson
3P% - 33.6%, Reb. Margin = +6.1 , FT 72.4%, FG 44.9%, Opp. FG 40.0% –
Duke is interesting this year. Benching senior PG Greg Paulus in favor of Nolan Smith was working out... but then Paulus ended up starting against Miami (FL) last weekend in an OT win. Duke is one of the better teams this year, but the shaky PG situation would suggest to me that they will be pressured into losing before cutting down the nets.

Clemson, Sag #6, kenpom offense #10, kenpom defense #43, 4th in conference at 5-3, 19-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Illinois, Miami (FL), Duke
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Wake, UNC, Florida St.
3P% - 36.8%, Reb. Margin = +1.7 , FT 67.9%, FG 46.4%, Opp. FG 41.0% –
Clemson still has senior KC Rivers (one of those players who's great in college, but probably won't do anything in the NBA). Rivers is taking a little less shots and actually the scoring load is distributed over 3 players this season, including 6'7" F-C Trevor Booker, and 6'2" Guard T. Olgesby. Rivers and Oglesby both shoot 3s at over 38%. Rivers is having a down season at 38% from 3-point land. If he can get back into form, Clemson may actually do something this season in the NCAAs.

Wake Forest, Sag #9, kenpom offense #35, kenpom defense #16, 4th in conference at 5-3, 18-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNC, Clemson, Duke
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Va. Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL)
3P% - 33.3%, Reb. Margin = +5.4 , FT 70.5%, FG 49.1%, Opp. FG 37.6% –
This team is such an enigma. They've already beaten UNC and Duke... but they've also lost to some teams that aren't that good. The secret is out that PG Jeff Teague will be a lottery pick come June, but they need to keep focused if they are going to go far. In addition to the super sophomore, the other top-2 scorers are 6'9" forwards, freshman A. Aminu, and sophomore James Johnson. both get 13ppg and 8rpg to create a nice inside-outside combination for Wake.

Miami (FL), Sag #28, kenpom offense #30, kenpom defense #57, 9th in conference at 4-6, 15-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Kentucky, Wake, Boston Coll.
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UConn, Ohio St (McClinton got ejected at beginning of 2nd half), Clemson, UNC, Va. Tech, NC State, Maryland
3P% - 37.8%, Reb. Margin = +7.7 , FT 68.1%, FG 43.8%, Opp. FG 38.6% –
Senior 6'1" guard Jack McClinton is very talented and is a scoring machine - shooting 47% from the field and 47% from 3-point land. They have a lot of players who don't shoot well though... which is probably why they've lost to many of the tough teams they've faced. I think the Hurricanes will be on the bubble all season.

Florida St, Sag #35, kenpom offense #113, kenpom defense #8, 4th in conference at 5-3, 18-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: California, Florida, Cincy, Clemson
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Northwestern, Pitt, Duke, Miami(FL), UNC
3P% - 32.8%, Reb. Margin = +1.8 , FT 70.7%, FG 42.6%, Opp. FG 38.1% –
I can't believe the stats on this team - they have a 20.3 scorer in 6'2" Toney douglas... and then a slew of single-digit scorers. Douglas only shoots 34% from 3-point land though... but still heaves more than 6 per game. Yuck. Team doesn't look too attractive to me.
3/14/09 - Update - In light of FSU's march to the ACC final, I decided to re-look at their numbers. Douglas now scores 20.9 ppg, and is now shooting 38% from 3-point land, meaning he was real hot the last month of the season, as they went 7-3 over the last 10 games (with another win over Clemson, two wins over Bubble team Va. Tech, and a win over UNC). Rebounding margin has shrunk to +0.7.

Boston College
, Sag #54, kenpom offense #24, kenpom defense #145, 2nd in conference at 6-4, 18-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNC, Va. Tech,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Saint Louis, Purdue, Harvard!, Wake (twice), Miami (FL)
3P% - 34.0%, Reb. Margin = +3.5 , FT 72.4%, FG 44.8%, Opp. FG 41.8% –
The enigma of the ACC - as they beat UNC and then lost to Harvard. Little Tyrese Rice hits 18.8 ppg, 5.5 assits, but also turns it over a lot (3.8). They are 6-4 in the ACC now, but they still have to play Clemson, Duke, and Florida St., and Miami(FL). I tend to think the UNC win was an aberration and that they will be lucky to sustain their success.

Va Tech, Sag #56, kenpom offense #60, kenpom defense #87, 4th in conference at 5-3, 15-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wake, Miami (FL)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Xavier, Seton Hall, Wisconsin, Georgia, Boston Coll.
3P% - 33.9%, Reb. Margin = +3.7 , FT 71.4%, FG 44.7%, Opp. FG 40.9% –
They have balanced scoring w/ two guards - 6'2" Delaney and 6'6" Vassallo. Both shoot between 36 and 38% from 3-point land. They also have a 6'7" forward who still bangs out 14.7ppg and 8.8 rebounds... after that... there isn't anything on this team. At least they have 3 guys I can talk about. Again, it's hard to tell if they can make the tourney.

Concluding thoughts: I'm no bracketologist, but after the big 4 (duke, unc, wake, clemson), it seems like there should be two bids available for these other 4, which will depend on the rest of conference play.

Amen!

Hear, hear! This statement is from Marvin Miller – a man I profoundly respect – who ran the Major League Baseball Players Association back when sports unions were legitimate agencies of advocacy and protection for their constituents and not one of the following:

(1) a buddy-buddy bacchanal of borderline negligent quid pro quo activities (NFLPA);
(2) a spineless cluster of idiots that have no voice (NBAPA); or
(3) a reflexively intransigent group that ends up bumbling away goodwill and legal (not to mention moral) high ground because Congress threatened to de-pants its leadership on C-Span (MLBPA).

If only Marvin Miller were in charge of the MLBPA, there would be far less union tolerance of grandstanding wankers in Congress like the “honorable” Elijah Cummings (D-MD), who wants to get a free photo-op with A-Rod.