MVC and Big East - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis

Time to quickly preview the 4 teams worth talking about in the MVC, and the whopping 10 worth talking about in the Big East. Just for simplicity, ESPN currently projects only 1 MVC team and 7 Big East teams. I can already tell you that I support two from the MVC which ranks as the 7th best conference at the moment according to Sagarin http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkc0708.htm , right behind the six power conferences.

MVC

Drake, Sag #20, 1st in conference at 15-3, 25-4 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Butler, Illinois St (twice), Creighton (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: St. Mary’s, So. Ill, Bradley, Missouri St
3P% - 36.8%, Reb. Margin = +2.7 , FT 75.3%, FG 44.8%, Opp. FG 43.7% –
Only non-conference loss was to St. Mary’s, but playing Iowa and Iowa St this year was meaningless b/c those teams stunk. What concerns me is that they don’t do any one thing well, other than shoot free throws, including playing defense. They beat Butler in the marquee Bracketbusters matchup, to give them their best win by far. Their top 4 scorers all like to shoot 3-pointers. Their fourth-leading scorer is Klayton Korver, brother of Kyle Korver of the Utah Jazz. Apparently, another brother, Kaleb is playing at Creighton, and a fourth brother is a senior in high school. Also, their mom supposedly scored 74 points in a high school game. That’s what we call good genes. If my mom played, she’d shoot grandpa-style and throw it under-handed. Anyways, their biggest guy is 6-8.

Illinois St, Sag #44, 2nd in conference at 13-5, 22-8 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Creighton (twice), Cincy, Missouri,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Indiana, Kent St., E. Mich, Indiana St, Drake (twice)
3P% - 38.2%, Reb. Margin = +1.6 , FT 63.8%, FG 46.1%, Opp. FG 40.2% –
They can’t shoot free throws at all, but they do play defense and can shoot the three. This would be an interesting team if they make the tourney, only b/c the question the entire game would be whether the free throw shooting is going to cause them to lose. This team has gotten hot at the right time, winning their last 4 including wins over Creighton and So. Illinois to grab 2nd place in conference. They are led by Osiris Eldridge, a 6-3 guard, averages 16.3 ppg, 5.6 reb, and shoots 41.7% from 3-point land. They have a 6-11 center who only averages 2.6 reb/game, so he must be very uncoordinated. Other than that, not much size on this team, though 6-7 forward A. Slack grabs 7.1 rebs/game.

Southern Illinois, Sag #50, 3rd in conference at 11-7, 17-13 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Miss. St., Creighton (split), Drake (split), St. Mary’s
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: USC, Indiana, Charlotte, W. Mich, Butler
3P% - 34.2%, Reb. Margin = +1.3 , FT 71.4%, FG 42.8%, Opp. FG 42.5% –
What’s encouraging is that they have two quality victories (Miss. St., St. Mary’s) out of conference, plus they did get splits with Creighton and Drake. It shows a lot of potential. For those wondering, this is the team that went to the sweet 16 and lost to Kansas last year. They still have their bruising 6-7 forward from last year’s team, Randal Falker, who averages 12.9 ppg, 7.1 reb, and shoots 56.2% from the field. They graduated their top guard and scorer from last year’s team, hence the drop-off in wins and expectations.

Creighton, Sag #50, 4th in conference at 10-8, 20-9 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: DePaul, Nebraska, St. Joe’s, So. Ill (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Xavier, Ill. St (twice), Drake (twice)
3P% - 37.5%, Reb. Margin = +1.8 , FT 71.7%, FG 47.5%, Opp. FG 41.5% –
They played the easiest non-conference schedule in the MVC; only good team they played was Xavier. It’s hard to figure out this team by looking at the stats… their 3rd and 4th leading scorers play limited minutes off the bench, and their PG is not a scoring threat as he shoots 30% from the field. These guys need to win the tourney to make it, and it ain’t going to happen barring a miracle.

The MVC tourney is this week, and if #2-seed Illinois St and #3 seed Southern Illinois play in the semis (Saturday March 8th at 4PM), it’s entirely possible that the winner could get an at large NCAA bid just for making the MVC finals. Personally, I think So. Illinois’s profile looks much better with the quality wins. Hopefully, the committee will just let the winner of that game (if it happens) go to the tourney, because I’d rather see the 2nd place team from this conference than some questionable sub-500 team from one of the power conferences.

BIG EAST

Georgetown, Sag #9, 1st in conference at 14-3, 24-4 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Michigan, Alabama, Uconn, Notre Dame, Marquette
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Memphis, Pitt, Louisville, Syracuse
3P% - 36.7%, Reb. Margin = +2.5 , FT 66.9%, FG 48.2%, Opp. FG 36.2% –
The non-conference schedule was pretty easy and they only lost to Memphis, the only good team on the entire slate. In conference, Georgetown has obviously been putting the smack down. They are playing the same style as last year’s final 4 team, which is limited possessions, with the same type of offense involving cuts and motions which confuses teams and leads to easy baskets. And… they have a star Senior in Dr. Hibbert (13.6 ppg, 6.4 reb, 2.4 blks)! Guard Jonathon Wallace is their main 3-point threat shooting 42.7% from 3-point land.

Louisville, Sag #14, 1st in conference at 14-3, 24-6 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNLV, Kentucky, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Marquette, Nova, Pitt
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: BYU, Dayton, Purdue [w/ injury problems to best player] ; Cincy, Seton Hall, UConn
3P% - 35.0%, Reb. Margin = +3.1 , FT 66.0%, FG 45.8%, Opp. FG 37.8% –
They had some injury problems (with center D. Padgett and Palacios out), which partially caused them to lose to Dayton, Purdue, and BYU. But they have really rised to the occasion in the big east since being healthy, despite losing to some bad teams and beating a lot of the good teams. Top 4 scorers all average between 10.5 and 12 ppg. Padgett shoots an absurd 68.2% from the field. Best 3-point threat is Jerry Smith, who shoots 40.4% from downtown. This team has really taken to heart Coach Pitino’s lessons on defense.

UConn, Sag #16, 3rd in conference at 12-4, 23-6 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Indiana, Marquette, Notre Dame, W. Virginia, Louisville,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Memphis, Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Providence
3P% - 35.8%, Reb. Margin = +6.7 , FT 71.2%, FG 46.2%, Opp. FG 38.3% –
They really didn’t start to come together until they beat Indiana in Bloomington. They’ve actually won 12 of 13 and are red-hot at the moment. Jeff Adrien, a 6-7 forward, and AJ Price, a 6-2 guard, both get 15 ppg. Adrien also grabs 9.3 rebs. Price shoots 38.7% from 3-point land and delivers 6 assists per game.

Notre Dame, Sag #17, 3rd in conference at 12-4, 22-6 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Kansas St., Villanova, Marquette, PittNon-conference losses & key conference losses: Baylor, Geo. Tech, Georgeotwn, Louisville, Uconn, Marquette
3P% - 40.9%, Reb. Margin = +7.4 , FT 74.1%, FG 45.2%, Opp. FG 40.7% –
These guys take my 2008 award for Best Overall Statistics thus far! Last year’s winner, Maryland, bowed out in the 2nd round, so let’s hope for all the Irish fans out there, that Notre Dame can do a bit better. I’m also curious to see if they play well in the tourney to overcome last year’s pathetic showing in a loss to Winthrop in the 1st round. Anyways, this team is led by three main players: Luke Harangody, Kyle McAlarney, and Rob Kurz. Harangody, a 6-8 sophomore, gets 21ppg, 10.6 reb, and shoots 50% from the floor. McAlarney, a 6-0 junior, gets 15.3 ppg and takes 7.5 3pointers per game but shoots 45% from out there! Kurz, a 6-9 senior, gets 12.3 ppg, 7.7 reb, and 1.4 blocks. I’m going to blindly rely on these guys in the tourney if for no other reason, because they lost to Winthrop last year and I like teams that have revenge on their mind.

Marquette, Sag #13, 5th in conference at 11-6, 21-7 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Ok St., Wisconsin, Notre Dame (split), Pitt, Nova
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Duke, W. Va, Louisville (twice), Uconn, Georgetown
3P% - 36.1%, Reb. Margin = +1.4 , FT 70.6%, FG 45.4%, Opp. FG 41.0% –
These guys have a high ranking in Sagarin mainly because of the scores of their games and the number of close losses (4 points to duke, 3 points to notre dame, 2 points to georgetown).) They have a balanced attack with 3 guys averaging 13 ppg. Their best 3-point threat is Lazar Hayward, but he only attempts 2.4 per game. I hope it’s pronounced “Lazer” because that would make the games more exciting.

Pitt, Sag #22, 6th in conference at 9-7, 21-8 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Duke, Georgetown, Nova, W. Va
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Dayton, Rutgers, Cincy, Marquette, Louisville
3P% - 33.6%, Reb. Margin = +5.0 , FT 68.4%, FG 45.7%, Opp. FG 42.3% –
Pitt beat Duke in the regular season, but as we’ve all realized, that really isn’t too special of a feat. Pitt’s been in a bit of a funk and was on a 3-game losing streak before toppling Cincy and Syracuse (non-tourney teams). Pitt is led by Sam Young, a 6-6 forward, who averages 18.2 ppg, 6.5 reb, and shoots 41% beyond the arc. They also have DeJuan Blair, a 6-7 forward, who averages 12ppg, 9.5 reb, and shoots 53% from the field.

W. Virginia, Sag #24, 6th in conference at 9-7, 20-9 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Auburn, Marquette, Syracuse
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Tennessee, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Cincy, Uconn, Georgeotwn
3P% - 35.9%, Reb. Margin = +2.0 , FT 67.6%, FG 45.2%, Opp. FG 41.1% –
Played a weak non-conference slate and still don’t have much of a good resume, given all the tough games in the big east. Led by J. Alexander (6’8”) (15.1ppg, 6 reb) ; A. Ruoff (14 ppg, 3.1 assists, 41.8% 3p%).

Villanova, Sag #63, 9th in conference at 7-9, 17-11 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: G. Mason, LSU, Temple, Pitt, Syracuse, W. Virginia, Uconn
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: NC St, Depaul, Cincy, Rutgers, St. Joe’s
3P% - 34.7%, Reb. Margin = +2.5 , FT 71.6%, FG 43.2%, Opp. FG 43.9% –
They don’t play defense, they lost to St. Joe’s who is also fighting for a ticket to the big dance, and they’ve lost to a lot of the bad teams in the conference. It doesn’t look good for them despite being ranked early on. However, they had very questionable calls that resulted in losses to NC St. and Georgetown. Nonetheless, their best player is Scottie Reynolds (16.3 ppg, 36.3% 3pointers on 6.2 attempts per game). It kind of reminds me of another Scottie, Scotty Thurman on that Arkansas championship team, who also loved to throw up 3-pointers! Granted, Villanova needs to sell its soul to the devil to win it all this year.

Syracuse, Sag #49, 9th in conference at 7-9, 17-12 overall
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UAB, Syracuse, Providence
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Boston College, Dayton, St. Louis, Temple
3P% - 33.3%, Reb. Margin = +5.6 , FT 67.1%, FG 48.2%, Opp. FG 42.3% –
I just wanted to put them on the list to say that they have no business going to the tourney unless they actually win the Big East tournament. And I don’t see Carmelo, Hakim Warrick, or J-Mac saving them.