ACC - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis

Ranked as the best conference in the country, its possible that 8 or even 9 teams from the ACC can make the dance. Hell, all 9 of the following teams are in the top 40 in the Sagarin Rankings, and that is usually an indicator of a team being worthy of an at-large selection. I’ll try to be as unbiased as I can…

UNC, Sag #1, 1st in conference at 11-5,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Winthrop, Tennessee, Ohio St, Kentucky, Arizona
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Gonzaga (w/ Heytvelt), NC St., Maryland (only played Maryland once, lost by 2 points)
3P% - 36.0%, Reb. Margin = +8.4 , FT 70.5%, FG 50.2%, Opp. FG 41.1% –
We all know they are one of the top teams entering the tourney, and there aren’t enough good things to say about the team. The only slight negative is they have a lot of freshmen, but it really doesn’t matter with this group. Hansborough finished with a 18.8ppg, 8.0 rpg, Brandon Wright has been awesome (66.0% FG%), and Wayne Ellington is their top 3-point threat (37.3%).

Virginia, Sag #32, 1st in conference at 11-5,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Arizona, Gonzaga, Maryland (twice),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Purdue, Appalachian St., Utah, Stanford, Boston College, UNC
3P% - 36.6%, Reb. Margin = +4.8 , FT 73.2%, FG 43.6%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
Their top 2 scorers are 6’0” Sean Singletary, averaging 18.8ppg, 4.5rpg, 4.6apg, and 40.3% from 3-pointers, and 6’3” JR Reynolds, averaging 18.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.9 apg, and 35.9% from 3-pointers. They played extremely well obviously in ACC play, but really benefited from only playing UNC once, and Duke once. I don’t know what to make of all the crappy losses out of the conference for these guys.

Maryland, Sag #9, 3rd in conference at 10-6,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Michigan St., Winthrop, Illinois, Duke (twice), UNC
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Notre Dame, Miami (FL), Florida St.
3P% - 39.1%, Reb. Margin = +1.4 , FT 70.3%, FG 48.2%, Opp. FG 39.0% –
Based on stats alone, these guys win an award for the healthiest stats lines out of any team or conference I’ve looked at this month (other than the rebounding margin). I still can’t believe the Opp. FG%, especially with them being in the ACC, and, because I was curious, they also allow only a 29.7% from 3-point land! They have two shot blockers in 6’9” Ibekwe (2.70 bpg), 6’8” Gist (2.16 bpg) who also averages 12.8ppg, and 7.2 rpg. They also have a sharpshooter in Mike Jones who averages 13.4 ppg, and shoots a blistering 43.3% from 3-point land.

Va. Tech, Sag #28, 3rd in conference at 10-6,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Iowa, Old Dominion, Duke, UNC (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: W. Michigan, S. Illinois, G. Washington, Marshall, NC St.
3P% - 37.3%, Reb. Margin = -0.4 , FT 67.5%, FG 47.5%, Opp. FG 41.5% –
Not sure why they lost all of these games out of conference, but they were all extremely close games (for whatever that is worth). They completely rely on Zabian Dowdell, a 6’3” senior guard, averaging 18.3 ppg, and shooting 40.2% from 3-point land. They also have Vassallo who shoots 44.6% from 3-point land. Their rebounding margin is poor for some reason as well, which is never a good situation, because their top rebounder is only a 6’7” forward, averaging just 5.6 rpg.

Boston College, Sag #29, 3rd in conference at 10-6,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Mich. St., Yale, Va. Tech
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Vermont, Providence, Kansas, Duquesne, Duke (twice), UNC, Geo. Tech,
3P% - 34.2%, Reb. Margin = +2.1 , FT 72.5%, FG 48.4%, Opp. FG 44.0% –
Another team that seemed to play a rather “easy” ACC schedule… The out-of-conference slate is quite alarming, as is the lack of defense, and 3-point shooting, as well as any domination on the glass. Jared Dudley (19.3ppg, 8.5 rpg) may be the ACC conference player of the year, but one forward is not enough to get it done. Dudley is their best 3-point shooter as well (47.4%), but he only takes 2 attempts per game. The second scorer is a 6’1” Guard, Tyrese Rice (17.1 ppg, 5.7 apg, 3.33 Topg) and the third option is a 6’6” guard (Sean Marshall)

Duke, Sag #12, 6th in conference at 8-8,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Air Force, Indiana, Georgetown, Gonzaga,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Marquette, Maryland (2), UNC (2)
3P% - 38.3%, Reb. Margin = +4.8 , FT 69.1%, FG 46.8%, Opp. FG 41.6% –
Their best scorer is DeMarcus Nelson, shooting 37.9% from 3-land, and averaging just 14.2 ppg. Josh McRoberts is a lanky white guy who would be a terrible NBA pick for any team. The biggest problem for Duke, which has been diagnosed throughout the media, is that they have no steady PG-play, and actually had more turnovers than assists, for assumedly the first time in the Coach K era. I tried to be unbiased, but its hard considering I watched them really struggle even in the win against Gonzaga, as well as some of the ACC losses.

Georgia Tech, Sag #15, 6th in conference at 8-8,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Memphis, Georgia, Duke (split), UNC (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UCLA, Vanderbilt, Clemson
3P% - 36.9%, Reb. Margin = +6.1 , FT 68.5%, FG 49.0%, Opp. FG 43.6% –
This team really surged in the 2nd half to get noticed, and I’m actually surprised we didn’t hear more about them, but its probably due to the fact that they only beat Memphis, while losing to UCLA and Vanderbilt. Their best player is J. Crittenton, a 6’5” freshman averaging 14.5 ppg, 5.7apg, 3.7Topg, and they have 2 other starters who can shoot 3s well (apparently, another good scorer was suspended for the season before ACC play began – yet they played better without him).

Clemson, Sag #26, 8th in conference at 7-9,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Old Dominion, Miss. St., Georgia, Georgia Tech
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Duke (twice), Maryland (twice), UNC, Wake
3P% - 33.7%, Reb. Margin = +1.4 , FT 58.5%, FG 46.6%, Opp. FG 44.5% –
I did a double take as well, looking at the putrid 3-point % and the absurd Free throw percent of 58.5 --- for the team! They may have started 17-0, but they have finished off an amazing collapse (4-9). Also, they really didn’t beat anyone that good during their start anyways! They probably won’t make the tournament, but their best player has a cool name: KC Rivers, 6’5”, averaging 13.3 ppg, 40.3% from 3-land

Florida St., Sag #40, 8th in conference at 7-9,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Florida, Providence, Maryland, Duke
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Pitt, Wisconsin, Clemson (twice!)
3P% - 37.2%, Reb. Margin = +0.4 , FT 76.7%, FG 47.7%, Opp. FG 45.1% –
This team has a bona fide NBA prospect – 6’8” forward Al Thornton – 20.1ppg, 7.2 rpg, 52.9 FG%, and he has gone for over 21 points in each of their big wins, and shoots poorly from the field in the losses. This team obviously depends on his performance in many ways, and would be an intriguing team in the tourney, just to see what he can do.

Games to watch (ACC Tournament)
Thursday - Clemson vs. Florida St. - (is this a play-in game?)
Friday - Quarterfinals (if Maryland wins on Thursday, its BC vs. Maryland)
Saturday - Semifinals
Sunday - Finals