7 Mighty Thoughts on the Tournament

1. This week(end) is easily one of the craziest I remember. 3 double digit seeds in the sweet 16? A Robbie Hummel-less Purdue breaking through? The region of death claiming 3 out of the 4 top seeds? The one game format and neutral sites allow the little guy as close to an even playing field that exists in sports. And it's why March Madness is the greatest sporting event year in and year out.

2. Given the one game format and odd match-ups it's hard to make giant claims about what this means. Does anyone think if Kansas and Northern Iowa had a 7 game series that Kansas wouldn't win out? And yet I try. After the first two rounds...Kentucky and Syracuse appear to be the favorites left in the tournament. However given how this tournament has I'm unwilling to stake my life on that....

3. Hats off to the Big 10. At the start of the year this was expected to be a banner year for the Big 10. They backed it up with their first victory over the ACC in the Big 10-ACC Challenge. To top it off they got 3 teams in the sweet 16....the most of any conference.

4. The one thing that I continues to strike me is how badly Indiana screwed itself with Kelvin Sampson. Basset (of Ohio) and Crawford (of Ohio) scored over 27 three times in this tournament. Both are Indiana transfers because of Sampson. For a reference point IU had a player score 27 or more three times the ENTIRE season.

5. The reason I might lean towards picking Kentucky is how athletic they are. Estimates at this point have Kentucky fielding 4 top 15 picks in this year's draft. Worldwide Wes, the shadowy friend to the NBA stars, has pushed the superstars to John Calipari and overflowing freshman talent on Kentucky (and the lack elsewhere) I think is a big reason for the upsets this year.

6. Decent 3 point shooting counteracts great inside shooting. Shooting 40% from 3 point is equal to shooting 60% from 2 pt (do the math is works out). Big Red (aka Cornell) rode the 3 point shooting to a sweet 16 birth (let me just state my biases. I love saying Go Big Red). It's something to keep in mind when the NBA playoffs roll around...good 3 point shooting matters a lot....

7. Lost in all the analyses and predictions and gambling and upsets...is the emotion. The heartbreak the unbridled joy is simply palatable. I think that's what makes college athletics so engrossing is the emotion. Whatever your feelings about Michigan State if your heart didn't break a little when Kalin Lucas collapsed on the court with a probable ruptured Achilles well I'd recommend some serious therapy. The emotions, the career implications, the timing, everything just awful for Lucas. Hopes and prayers that the injury isn't that serious and that he can get back on the court soon

Flash Facts: Chalk Walk

One of the beauties of the tournament is supposed to be the importance of sheer probability. One game. One game can turn on an errant lay up , a clutch 3 pointer, a missed time out, etc. Only a fool would imagine a world where the team advancing always "deserved" it. Deserves got nothing to do with it. Not to say the outcomes are pure luck but hardly a purely deterministic outcome. Which is why we love it.

However this tournament for all the supposed wackiness, for all the probabilities, for all could'ves, would'ves, and shouldves, the sweet 16 is showing chalk. When an underachieving team with at least 3 future NBAers is the underdog well you pretty much know that the pper echelon have a strangle hold on the tournament. Could once again we see 4 1s? Or will "fate" take pity and send us a #2. All in all an exciting first round which had sound and fury has led us into a Sweet 16 that has signified nothing but chalk. However Thursday hope will spring anew for upsets and oddities. Onto the Sweet 16!

Cleveland State Wins - Madness Ensues

A lot of this year's tournament has been like an old fashioned professional wrestling match. The underdog puts on a few quick moves and looks ready for the KO but then something happens...the favorite hulks up or hits up him with a briefcase and that would be it. Cleveland State looked to follow that script. The undersized Vikings raced out to a 17 point lead before Wake and its 3 expected first rounders whittled the lead down to 6 with 11 minutes to go. However that's when the normal script got reversed. Senior Cedric Jackson nailed 3s, J'Nathan Bulluk the 6'5 power forward, owned the paint, and Wake made mistake after mistake leading to a 11-2 run and ultimately an insurmountable lead. Up next the no longer underachieving Arizona. Love the madness.....

Flash Facts: Early Tournament Thoughts

Well its tournament time. The magical time of the year when Gamblore the tyrannical gambling monster, enslaves this nation and forces us to worship at the foot of the mighty brackets. As the week goes on I'm sure the crack team of BSDers will add their thoughts (remember to fill out your BSD tournament bracket so we can all show how we are smarter than Publius) but here's a few of mine.....

1. Flash Fact #1 .... The vanishing Mid-Majors - This year the Mid-Majors and Mid-Mid Conferences received only 4 at large bids. Over the past 5 tournaments Mid-Majors have received fewer bids than the previous tournament. The fact that Arizona (RPI in the 60s) was included over Saint Mary's or San Diego State shows the bias. I tend to wish there were more Cinderallas then over-rated legacy cases but I also tend to think the tournament will weed out those faulty at larges....

2. Flash Fact #2.... Injuries. If your scowering the internet, newspaper (they still have those right?) , that random dude on the street corner with the end is near sign (Ben Bernatke?) for information remember injuries mean a lot. Illinois might be missing their PG. No one is certain how ACC player of the year Ty Lawson's toe is. Can UConn overcome the loss of Dyson? All are relevant questions as past performance might be misleading given the injuries....

Fed Chairman inspiring Confidence

3. Flash Fact #3 A #1 seed will lose...unless it doesn't. Last year was the first year all 4 #1 seeds made it to the final four. So you can take that breakage from history as a statement of gamblers logic (i.e. it can't happen again so soon) or a trend setter. Given the amount of upsets in the conference tourneys this year I'm guessing last year was an anomaly.

4. Flash Fact #4 Region of Death ? I think the two toughest regions are the Midwest and the East. The Midwest I think has the better teams but both Louisville and Michigan State have substantial homecourt advantages. The East has a number of potential teams to upset Pitt but all have shown erratic play over time. Nonetheless good luck picking either....

5. Flash Fact #5 Conference Pride Counts - While not as intense as in college football conference pride will be on display. The Big East was treated this year like the SEC is in football....excessive ball handling. However the Big East got the same number of bids as the Big 10 and the ACC (7 each). So which of the Power 3 will do the best? And how does one judge? Sweet 16 bids? Final 4 bids? Champion?

Olivia Munn says : To the victor goes the spoils.....

Hitman's Hit List: The Top 5 Teams I Root For, For No Particular Reason

I'm with you, Cramer. The Tournament is enough to make my head spin! Here are the five teams I root for annually for no particular reason:

5. Western Carolina: It's been a while since we've seen the Catamounts...but in 1996, as a #16 seed, they took Purdue to the brink and lost only by 2 points. I'm still rooting for a #16 to finally win one, and whoever does it will carry the spirit of WCU into history.

4. Chattanooga: The Mocs! Anyone remember in '97 when they took out #3 seed Georgia and #6 seed Illinois? Love the Mocs!

3. Syracuse: I've just always liked Syracuse. Jim Boeheim's teams are fun to root for. I also flat out love Otto and long for the ESPN commercials in which he got his ass kicked regularly.

2. The MAAC Champion: Best set of team names in any conference in the country! The Gaels (Iona), Golden Griffins (Canisius), and Jaspers (Manhattan) lead the charge. Also, this stealth conference will sneak up on anyone who confuses the MAC with the MAAC. It doesn't hurt that this year, Siena takes up the torch for the MAAC against the F*ckeyes. Go Saints!

1. Western Kentucky: I've rooted for the Hilltoppers ever since they marched to the Sweet 16 in 1993 as a #7 seed. Why are they first on this list, though? Easy. They have the BEST MASCOT EVER - Big Red!

Blogging Live from Friday's Games...

Editor's Note: One of my friends, let's just call him "Hoosierfan," decided not to do anything on Friday except watch games and send emails to me while I was working to update me on the action. He agreed to let me post his account of what transpired on Friday afternoon, along with some of my own editorial comments.

From: Hoosierfan
To: Gutsy Goldberg
Subject: Referees Support Tennessee
Date: Fri, 3/21/08, 2:17PM

First of all... Davidson is really good, and I wish I had picked them. They're doing quite well against gonzaga, but - gonzaga has to play at north carolina (which is much closer to Davidson), so Gonzaga got the shaft.

American, on the other hand, should be beating Tennessee, but there have been 12 "steals". By "Steals", I mean, the tennessee guy grabs the American's guy arm and takes the ball away, and then they call the american guy for a foul! Of course, the announcers don't even comment on it - they say - "Wow, those American guys have to figure out how to not turn the ball over."

Subject: Refs Blew the Drake Game in Regulation
Time: 2:50PM

The refs blew it in the drake- W.Kentucky game (and the announcers support
the refs, of course - its like part of the contract to air the games);
With 20 seconds left, tie game, WKY ball. WKY guy drives along the baseline, a drake guy throws himself in front of him, and somehow draws a charge. It should have been a blocking call, or no call. Definitely not a charge. This call helps to get the game into overtime.

Subject: W. Kentucky buzzer-beater!
Time: 3:09PM

Holy crap! WKY hit a buzzer beater from like 30 feet to win with 2 guys in the guys face! (Editor's Note: This was all part of the refs screwing up the game in regulation. It was part of their plan clearly).

March Madness 2008 - Instantaneous Analysis

One of the greatest day in sports is the day the brackets come out (at least in my humble opinion). Now, it's time for everyone in America to suddenly become basketball experts! Let's take a look at how this year's bracket shapes up:

Best 1st round matchup- USC vs. Kansas St. - No question in my mind... USC's prized freshman in OJ Mayo battling the one-man team of Kansas State and player of the year Michael Beasley. It's a juicy matchup, plus it really is unclear if USC has the big men to slow Beasley down enough to win the game. The other exciting thing about this game is that the winner gets to play Wisconsin, in a truly difficult 2nd round game... eesh.

Most anticipated 2nd round matchup – First, a little history lesson proving how my personal anticipated 2nd round matchup often never happens.
In 2007 my “anticipated” matchup actually happened [Boston College vs. former Big East rival Georgetown], but 2007’s 2nd round matchups were relatively weak.
In 2006, my matchup [Mich. St. vs. UNC] never happened as George Mason wiped out Mich. St. then UNC.
In 2005, I didn’t specifically anoint one matchup, but I alluded to the Kansas-Wisconsin game, but Bucknell took out Kansas in the 1st round to prevent that from happening
This year, I've got two games I'm looking at, both in the same region: the sexy one is UNC-Indiana. Yes, Indiana has come across some tough times now and haven't looked as good at late but they still have two super players in the inside-outside combination of Eric Gordon (freshman guard) and senior big-man DJ White. The other matchup I'm looking at is Washington State vs. Notre Dame. Both teams suffered disappointing exits last year (Wash St in the 2nd round, Notre Dame in the 1st) and both should be focused on revenge and using the 3-pointer as their dagger. Honorable mention goes out to the Butler-Tennessee game, also in the bottom half of the UNC region.

Region of Death- UNC's region! Without question, it's the hardest, which is unfair, considering that UNC is the "#1 overall seed". This region has it all: best 2-seed (Tennessee), top-10 ranked mid-major (Butler), successful Big East teams (Louisville, Notre Dame), an experienced PAC-10 team (Wash. St.) and even an underachieving, but very talented team (Indiana). I was all excited before the tournament to have Tennessee and UNC play each other - just not in the regional finals. Now, I'm scared we won't even see that.

Cinderella Final 4 Team- I haven’t been very successful with this, though I did break the rules and just picked UCLA as a “Cinderella 2-seed” in 2006. This year, I'm going with USC. Beyond having OJ Mayo, USC also plays great team defense. Granted, it's going to take a miracle for them to survive almost all of the best big men in the country in Beasley (Kansas St), Beard (Wisconsin), then Hibbert (Georgetown), just to reach a more favorable matchup against Kansas.
Darkhorses:
Xavier – Xavier could really benefit if UCLA’s big men Mbah a Moute [ankle sprain] and Kevin Love [back spasms] aren’t able to get healthy soon. It stinks having an injury situation like this for UCLA, so hopefully, there will be some news on their players’ health before Thursday, though the coaches probably won’t say much of anything definitively.
Marquette - They are the opposite of Stanford who they play in the 2nd round. Could be an interesting darkhorse pick since they are battle-tested in the Big East, and they have a big marquee victory over Wisconsin.

Team that got Royally Screwed Over: Butler - Not only did the Selection Committee bump them down a number of seeds for not having many (any?) quality wins, they bumped them to a 7-seed. Then, to add insult to injury, they are playing in Alabama... and their 1st round opponent just happens to be a school in the state of Alabama! Oh... and Butler's prize for winning the 1st round? A date with Tennessee in the 2nd round!

Now, on to the rules I've devised to analyze the tournament! If you want to see the rules I’ve devised, check out the link to 2005’s blog article on the "Rules of Engagement".

Rule#4: A 12-seed always beats a 5 (except in 2000 and 2007)- In 2001, the year after all the 12-seeds lost, two 12-seeds one games, and one even went to the sweet 16. This year, each of the 5-seeds should be cautiously selected. I like Temple over Mich. St. and Villanova over Clemson as the better choices.

Rule#6: There always is one conference w/ multiple teams in the final4 (except in 2007) – My favorite options:
UNC, USC, UCLA, Texas (PAC-10)
UNC, Kansas, UCLA, Stanford (PAC-10)
Tennessee, Vanderbilt, UCLA, Memphis (SEC)
Louisville, Georgetown, UCLA, Memphis (Big East)
UNC, Kansas, Duke, Texas (ACC)

Rule 8 - The MAC has never gone consecutive years w/o winning a tourney game (well, since 1994 anyway and the MAC Depression of 2004-2007).
I’m expecting Kent St. to end the streak this year. Granted, this may not be a good expectation, because my alma mater, the Miami Redhawks, almost took them out in the semifinals in what turned into a steel cage match because the refs just “wanted to let them play.” Kent St. only has two quality wins all season (St. Mary’s, in the bracket buster and Illinois State back in November). I’m curious to see how Kent St. performs this time in the tournament.

Rule#9: If you win your power conference tourney, you won't do well in the NCAA tourney. (Exception: top 10 teams):
In 2005, one team lost in the 1st round, the other in the 2nd round
In 2006, all 3 that qualified got bounced in the 1st round.
In 2007, one team qualified [Oregon], but they made the elite 8. I still say Oregon had an easy draw though.
In 2008, Pitt (Big East) and Georgia (SEC) are the only teams that qualified. Georgia is a 14-seed playing Xavier and Georgia's miracle run will end then. As for Pitt, this gets a bit trickier, as they are playing in a relatively weaker foursome (Pitt-Oral Roberts, Mich. St-Temple). The rules have treated me well, so I will place Pitt as a 2nd-round loser.

Experimental Rule #11: The 1-seed with the worst Sagarin strength of schedule will NOT make the Final 4.
Actually, this rule doesn’t work well at all. In the 3 years of data I have, Illinois and Florida already bucked the trend (and Florida won anyways). Granted, Kansas was fractions of a point behind Florida and ended up bowing out in the Elite Eight. This year, Memphis is the clear loser, so I will avoid them and their awful free throw shooting.

Notes from the Periphery: Final Four Edition

Well the Semi-Finals of the Men's NCAA Division I tournament is in the books. Here are a quick four things I think:

1) You have to be insane to listen to the radio in your apartment screaming at a computer for you team which is playing 6 time zones over. Luckily I am that crazy. Technology is fairly impressive that I can even keep up and read about the tournament let alone listen to the local Columbus radio station. It is well worth the lack of sleep.

Surprisingly I look very much like Homer Simpson while listening to the Buckeyes

2) The Clash of the Titans kind of fizzled. The NCAA refs seemed a little perplexed how to call a game that has individual's over 7 foot. The much anticipated dinosaur matchup of Oden and Hibber never really materialized due to some quick and dubious officiating especially in the first half. The second half the refs swallowed their whistles. That said while in Hibbert seemed to gt the better of the younger Oden. In 24 minutes Hibbert put up 19 points and six rebounds while Oden in only 20 minutes had 14 points and 9 rebounds. Both will good pros although as Oden develops it will interesting to see these two go at it agiain....

3) The true MVP of OSU is not Oden but Mike Conley Jr. The son of an olympic gold medalist Conley has showed time and time again that OSU can win against good competition without Oden. Conley is currently reminding me of when Isiah Thomas won a national championship while on Indiana. The ease at which both could slice through the opposing defense and the sense of when to throw a perfect floating shot and when to kick it out for the three.

I just wanted something classy for once. Take some notes from here on tasteful but beautiful

4) Two-peat? Returning to our previous conversation of the comparison between UNLV and Florida I think last night showed what the two squads have in common. While UNLV never let off the gas and continually crushed opponents Florida seems to sleep walk at times. However when Florida plays at they are capable of you can almost see the other team wilt, which is what happened against UNLV opponents. The raw athleticism, the variety of scorers, the ability to dominate both sides of the ball was too much of UCLA. You could literally almost see the point where it dawned on them that they had no chance at winning and internalized it. Simply put UCLA was scared of Florida no different then teams were scared to play UNLV. OSU has already experience a thrashing in basketball this season at the hands of Florida so the key to this Final's match up is fear. Will OSU remain as mentally tough as they have been throughout the tournament when facing deficits or will they fold like UCLA did last night.

The star matchup will be Oden versus Horford

Onto Atlanta: Part I

Well the first two prongs of the Atlanta invasion are set. Ohio State and UCLA (pronounced Uck-La for those that don't follow College Basketball) are heading to the Final 4. Somehow there's a huge difference in terms of judging if a team was successful on whether they reached the Elite 8 or the Final 4. Its the equivalent of talking to a hot girl and lets say pulling a Tom Brady. So how did we get here? A question UCLA fan Numero Uno, Bill Walton, probably asks half a dozen times a day (other notable questions Bill Walton asks are 1) Who are You? 2) Did Shaq call today? 3) Are you sure? 4) Is that weed container Michael Vick has for sale 5) Are you really sure Shaq didn't call?)

Ohio State over Memphis
Before the game Joey Dorsey, the man assigned to go to toe to toe with the NBA's number one pick, made a fairly interesting pre-game analysis possibly without the influence of Walton's secret stash. He claimed that Greg Oden was over-rated and he (Dorsey) was the true Goliath. While I'm not a psychologist and typically I get scared of clowns - I can tell you not to do the following things:
1) Don't Piss off Greg Oden
2) Don't stick metal into electrical sockets, especially in England
3) Don't assume Germans get sarcasm, they typically don't. Check with Poland.
4) Don't Piss off Greg Oden
5) Don't assume Bill Simmons can extract head from his ass.

So how did the final line of the game go. Joey Dorsey: 19 minutes 4 fouls, 0 points and 3 rebounds. Greg Oden 24 Minutes 17 points 9 rebounds. What wasn't reflected in the scoring table how big of influence Oden had on the defense. With Oden in there the dribble penetration slowed to a trickle while the OSU execution of its offense soared. Outside of a 8-0 run that Memphis had with Oden on the bench OSU controlled the game. Onto Atlanta for the Buckeyes.

The Big Man threw it down and Walton was happy (John 12: 4)

UCLA over Kansas
Last year's runner up versus last year's choker. Kansas has been on a redemption mission all year. Their crop of super freshman had turned into super sophomores. They had breezed through the bracket so far without a hint of difficulty. However UCLA had their own legacy overcome. In particular history was a bitch for Arron Affalo (who obviously is unaware how to correctly spell his own first name.). Affalo was second fiddle in last year's tournament run to Jordan Farmer (now of the LA known as the Kobe Bryants. apparently they actually put 4 other guys on the court at the same time as Kobe. Who knew?). As such Affalo wanted to prove he to could enter the pantheon of UCLA players that played big in big games. Last night he was up to the challenge, pouring 15 of his 24 points in the second half like salsa on a tasty burrito

(random angery O moment. There is no good Mexican food here. Also apparently the concept of spicy doesn't exist in Europe. I firmly believe that most cultural differences between the US and Europe is there lack of ability to handle jalepenos).

Anyway Kansas never correctly figured out that turning the ball over usually HURTS a teams chances for winning. Without good ball handling skills, and not in the Jenna Jamison way, Kansas couldn't make up the difference. UCLA now can wait in Atlanta, hoping for a rematch with Florida. Remember redemption can be spelled A-R-R-O-N.

If Ron Burgundy can redeem himself maybe so can Arron Affalo

Leading Off

1. I have decided to split up my 2007 MLB preview, handicapping the NL this week and continuing up with the AL next week. With 30 teams to go through, splitting it up this way will make it easier on the eyes, that’s for sure.

2. The Texas Longhorns probably soiled several brackets yesterday. And while I’m more than happy to blame them for taking a giant dump on the court, I’m just as happy to take my anger out on USC’s head coach Tim Floyd. Why, you ask? Because I don’t like him; never have. He was such an uninspired choice for the Bulls back in 1998 that I’ve hated him ever since. Although the demands of the job are quite different, guys like Tim Floyd ultimately prove the point of why it’s so much harder to coach in the NBA. Here’s a guy who got nothing – literally nothing – out of his Bulls teams and he gets to land on his feet, run a shady program in the nation’s second-largest market, and takes down a giant to make the Sweet 16. How can this two-bit idiot get away with this? Tim Floyd and his whiny face deserve a good beating. Here’s hoping that the UNC Tarheels beat the crap out of USC.

3. While we’re on the subject of college basketball, I’d just like to say that March Madness is indeed the single-greatest sporting event we have here in the United States. Frankly, I’d argue that it might be the best sporting event on the planet. As much fun as it was to watch the World Cup this past summer, I don’t think it compares to the excitement that a buzzer-beater generates. The frenetic pace of basketball just makes it a better experience overall.

Notes from The Periphery: It Begins!

As I sit here quietly contemplating my picks for the tournament, its important to be in the right state of mind. You see teams are seeded for a reason therefore you should expect the higher seeded to teams to win. Of course thats what the committee wants you to think. They know that that you know how the seeds go so there's always a few upset gems intentionally placed in there. Of course they know that you know that they know that while studying in Spain they learned that teams are mortal. So you can clearly not pick the underdog in front of you (most of the time). I think. Is it clear now? I hope not. Nonetheless here's some quick thoughts.

Region of Death (i.e. toughest region):
East: UNC, Texas, Wash St., Georgetown all have potential along with numerous sleeping giants (USC, BC, Arkansas, Oral Roberts (is that a real school by the way?). Just assume there will be upsets somewhere. Much like going to that cheap Chinese place across the street, cross your fingers and pray.

Region of Fluffy Bunnies and Pink Frilly Things (i.e. easiest region)
Midwest. Basically the committee decided that Florida, a school thats quickly moving up ranks for team I'd like to be stuck on a flight with Bill Simmons, should get a free pass to the Final 4. Arghh. Not another championship. Please if your listening stop it Christopher Walken.

Christopher Walken, patron saint of schadenfreude.

Best First Round Matchup
I have two Nevada v. Creighton and Marquette v. Michigan State.

Best Story Lines:
Will a freshman (Oden, Durant, Wright, fill in blank) lead his team to the Championship. Will Florida Repeat? Can anyone stop them? Please? Will the mid-majors do it two years in a row and bracket bust everything? Will Duke lose in the first round? Has anyone seen my pants? Does the committee really think I will ever refer to anything as the East Rutherford Region? Really? Will I really stay up to crazy hours to watch the tournament?

Stay tuned more answers are coming.....

Third Annual BSD Tournament Challenge

Well its time for the Madness to begin. As part of our American heritage the great tourney fill out officially starts. We here in the internet age can do it online (where we can also buy plane tickets to flee the country due to our bets on said tournament). As such please feel free to join the fun. If for whatever reason you weren't included in the initial foray please just let me know via posting or e-mail. This year's winner gets a free ticket on the Colonel's Survival Adventure (I believe this year its being held in Australia with such fun activities as shark wrestling, knifey-forky, gator head butting and kangaroo kick-boxing). Good luck to everyone and by that I mean I hope you all lose to me...