Rules of Engagement

Editor’s Note: I will be writing each and every Wednesday from now, until the end of the tournament in honor of something we call… March Madness.

This is a special moment in history. Due to the lucrative contract I signed with the blog (I get a free slice of pizza once a year), I will now be unveiling to the public something extremely valuable. So valuable in fact, that this document was protected by a password AND it was scrambled using a Cracker Jack decoder ring. I will now be unveiling to the readers of this blog… Goldberg’s Ten Rules to Predicting the NCAA Tournament Field.

[Applause. Cheers. Jeers.]

What is the success rate of these rules? Let’s just say, I wouldn’t bet any substantial amount of money on these rules. But, they are my guidelines… developed and tweaked from the 13 tournaments I have followed and the Bracketology classes I have attended.

Rule#1: All (4) 1-seeds will NOT make Final4
Pretty much common sense. You can’t pick all 4 #1s. Some females even know this rule.

Rule#2: At least (1) 1-seed WILL make Final4
Once again, common sense. Picking which one is more difficult.

Rule#3: When a non-1 seed wins, it happens in 2 straight years
Getting a little tricky. But, in 2003, 3-seed Syracuse won, and in 2004, 2-seed UConn won. That’s right, a 1-seed WILL win this year. We are due.

Rule#4: A 12-seed always beats a 5 (except in 2000)
This has taken on strange-but-true lore. It really does work for some unknown reason.

Rule#5: If the 1-seeds do poorly one year, they do well the next year.
This is a rule of thumb. Last year, the 1-seeds were terrible, 2 were knocked out in the 2nd round, only 1 made the Final 4. The last time only 1 1-seed made the Final 4 was in 2000. The following year in 2001, a 1-seed won, 2 were in the final 4 and all 4 made the Elite 8.
Meaning… you can bank on the 1-seeds succeeding this year.

Rule#6: There always is one conference w/ multiple teams in the final4
Just about always. Obviously, I’m banking on the ACC this year.

Rule#7: NEVER has there been a final4 w/ teams all from the same conference
The Big East got 3 back in 1985 (first year of 64 teams). Getting 4 is just absurd. Don’t do it.

Rule#8: The MAC has never gone consecutive years w/o winning a tourney game (well, since 1994 anyway).
That means the MAC will win this year. No ifs, ands, or buts. The biggest problem though (which may warrant deviating from Rule 8) is that every team in the MAC has the same record. Parity rules. They probably will be drawing a tough opponent. Proceed with caution.

Rule#9: If you win your conference tourney, you won't do well in the NCAA tourney. (Exception: top 10 teams)
Teams that come out of nowhere to win a conference tourney usually have nothing left come NCAA tourney time. I think a “cockiness complex” is definitely at work here. The team gets over-confident after beating down everyone, they get to the tournament, and suddenly, they lose in the 1st/2nd round. (example: Maryland 2004 was going to be like a 10-seed, earned a 5-seed, lost in 2nd round.)
Top 10 teams obviously are exempt from this rule, and need to be looked at on a case-by-case basis. 9 of the last 20 champions won their conference tournament and were top-10 teams entering the Big Dance, which is more than enough to warrant an exemption from the rules.

Rule #10: The favorite almost NEVER survives the “Region of Death” (Duke in 2004 made the Final 4), and certainly will never win the whole tournament.
In 2004, Duke became the first favorite (1-seed mainly) to survive the region that I anoint, “Region of Death”. This terminology comes from the World Cup soccer tournament, where the European reporters always anoint the toughest group as the “Group of Death”. (Last World Cup, favorite-Argentina could not even make it out of its group). Same principle applies. It’s a statistical anomaly how so many good teams end up in the same group. I’m still amazed that Duke survived in 2004– other teams in its region included Arizona, Illinois, UNC, Texas, Xavier, & Mississippi St. Usually, the “Region of Death” is readily apparent and everyone will know as soon as the brackets are announced. Tune in next week, as I officially announce the 2005 Region of Death.