March Madness 2005

This is the greatest time of the year. Productivity across the nation dips to its lowest point of the year as everyone catches basketball fever. OK, let’s get right to my analysis to help as much as I can in your pool (which isn't much).

Best 1st-round matchup: Pitt vs. Pacific
The Committee was crazy this year. They basically decided to watch the conference tournaments, and then bump a team up or down 2-3 seeds based on that performance. This game features an incredible Pacific team that has lost 2 games all year, and a Pitt team that was ranked most of the season. Pitt played ‘Nova in the 1st round of the Big East with the exact same credentials, ‘Nova won. ‘Nova got a 5-seed as a result, and Pitt got a 9! I have no idea who will win the Pitt-Pacific game, but I think the winner has a good shot against Washington.

From here on out, I'm just going to highlight some of the rules which led me to my choices.

Rule3: When a non-1 seed wins, it happens in 2 straight years.
So, we are due for a 1-seed to win. Right off the bat I’m eliminating Washington and Duke. This may be overkill, but even though Duke has a relatively easy region, I just don’t trust them. We’ll get to that region momentarily. I’m in love with Illinois & UNC, so let’s just pencil those 2 in the final 4 right now.

Rule4: A 12-seed always beats a 5 (except in 2000)
Let’s go with UW-Milwaukee over Alabama. Someone’s gotta do it. Old Dominion over Michigan State isn’t a bad idea either.

Rule8: The MAC has never gone consecutive years w/o winning a tourney game (well, since 1994 anyway).
Well, Ohio University somehow ended up in the tournament with 3 freshmen starters based on an OT buzzer-beater. What the hell, give them another victory! Everyone beats Florida in the 1st round of the NCAAs anyway.

Rule9: If you win your conference tourney, you won't do well in the NCAA tourney. (Exception: top 10 teams)
So, we are looking at major conferences here. The teams that will stink are: Florida (only strengthens the probability of losing to Ohio), and Syracuse. Syracuse is playing Vermont, so jump on that bandwagon and that guy named Copperhead.

Rule 10: The favorite almost NEVER survives the “Region of Death” (Duke in 2004 made the Final 4), and certainly will never win the whole tournament.
Finally, to answer the question that everyone already knows the answer to: UNC’s region is the “Region of Death”. UNC, Vilanova, Kansas, Wisconsin, & UConn certainly qualifies. Unfortunately, I’m going against the odds and still picking UNC to win the region. They are so talented, have a great coach, and they have more depth than anyone else. I’m still taking them all the way to the finals, just not to win the whole thing.

Rule6: There always is one conference w/ multiple teams in the final4
Well, the ACC is still the best conference in the land. Before ACC season began, 7 teams were ranked! Obviously, they all beat the snot out of each other, and not that many are ranked anymore. As a result, when I look at the Washington region, Wake Forest seems like a super-power. They have a great backcourt let by Chris Paul, they made the Sweet 16 last year, and I think they can make the leap.

The Duke-Region, home of Cinderella
Finally, the one region I haven’t touched on is Duke’s. Duke has a cake-walk to the Elite 8, assuming Syracuse is knocked out earlier on. Everyone in the nation is hoping for a Duke-Kentucky and a Duke-UNC Final 4. Every year, the game that everyone roots for never happens. Who do I see messing up all these parties? Utah.

Yes, I know Rick Majerus is no longer the coach. The thing is, I have all favorites in the Final 4 right now with Illinois, Wake, UNC. Utah has the best big-man in the country in Bogut. Plus, they shoot 37.5% from 3-point land as a TEAM! That’s a pretty good inside-out combo that most teams will have lots of trouble dealing with. So, I’m anointing Utah as my crazy final 4 team. They will have to beat Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Duke to get to the Final 4. If this happens, the blog is raising my salary substantially - to 2 pizza slices per month, a $5 cost of living increase, and I will change my name on the blog to Nostradamus.

Finally, I’m going with the championship game that everyone wants to see, but probably won’t happen. Illinois will take down UNC in the finals, merely because UNC will have nothing left after surviving Nova, UConn, and the juggernaut Utah.

Other Teams That Could Make Noise
Kansas – I would like Kansas, but their fortunes are completely tied to Langford’s ankle, which hasn’t been healthy. They could lose to Wisconsin in the 2nd round, or go to the Final 4, all depending on one ankle’s health.
Louisville- Strongly considered anointing Garcia and his mates as my surprise Final 4 team. Decided that beating Georgia Tech, Washington, & Wake was also really difficult, and wanted to go with something more shocking (read: Utah).
Arizona- As a 3-seed, they may have to play Oklahoma St in the sweet 16! That should be a sensational game, and either team would have a great shot against Illinois.
UConn- Team most likely to survive the Region of Death that’s not named UNC. The only problem is that I don’t know if they have the guard-play to make it. They certainly have the big men. They remind me a lot of a young Michigan State team that made it to the Final4 team the year AFTER Cleaves left. It's completely realistic for UConn to follow in those footsteps.
Gonzaga- Have to give my annual shout-out. They have disappointed me every year since 1999, when they made the Elite 8. I’m in love with mid-majors that succeed. The problem is, they would have to beat Wake in the Sweet 16, which is a very tall task. I can only hope that Turiaf’s dreadlocks will give them the power to succeed.

That’s all I got. Let the madness begin!