NCAA Preview – Selection Committee was Cuckoo for Conference Tournaments

Absolutely insane how much the NCAA selection committee will change the seedings based on how a team does in its conference tournament. Syracuse, a BUBBLE TEAM, got a 5-seed. Jalapeno! To make things even more ridiculous, they drew a soft Texas A&M team that honestly, is probably just as good as the crappy Syracuse team.
As always, the regions seem vastly unequal. Memphis is supposedly the fourth best #1 team, yet they seem to have one of the easier brackets, all things considered.
Because West Virginia got knocked out early in the Big East tournamen, they became a 6-seed! Lower than Syracuse! To make things more ridiculous, they could be playing Iowa in the 2nd round.

Best player name: Ken Tutt, Oral Roberts. I can’t wait to see the headlines: “King Tutt and Oral Roberts topple Memphis in 1st round!” (Or the more likely, "Ken Tutt's 27 points not enough to topple Memphis")

Best 1st round matchup: Georgetown vs. Northern Iowa – There is no better way to prove conference superiority than pitting a team that beat Duke (Georgetown) against an MVC team that acted like an assassin through much of the year (Iowa, LSU).

Most anticipated 2nd round matchup: Michigan St. vs. UNC – Final 4 matchup last year, 2nd round matchup this year. Two great coaches, tons of NBA prospects. It’s just cruel and unusual punishment not only for the players but for all of the bracketologists like myself. If you add in the seeding that Iowa and Illinois got, as well as the tough 2nd round draws of the Big 10 teams (West Virginia vs. Iowa, and Illinois vs. Washington). The Big 10 REALLY got the shaft by the organizers this year, in terms of seeding. But honestly, the conference that got shafted the most was definitely the MVC and Missouri State and Creighton. That’s such garbage! Missouri State had a whopping 21 in the RPI, and 25 in the Sagarin ratings.

Region of Death: The Uconn region. Uconn, Kentucky, Illinois, Washington, Michigan St., UNC, Tennessee, and MVC champion Wichita State. Aye carumba!

Cinderlla Final 4 Team: Granted, I’ve had just 30 minutes to peer over the brackets, but I like UCLA to make the stretch run. I think its also safe to say that whomever makes it from the Memphis-region will definitely be a “Cinderella” in my mind [Memphis, Kansas, Indiana, Gonzaga, Pitt]. Yes, I even put Memphis here though they are a 1-seed.

Darkhorses- Indiana. The team seems to have been playing well again now that Mike Davis announced he was leaving. FYI – Marco Killingsworth said the only reason he came to IU was because of Davis. So, whatever you do, don’t get in his way! I also want to give a shout-out to Arkansas, coached by former Kent St. coach Stan Heath. Stan Heath only coached 1 tournament, and took Kent State to the Elite 8. It will be interesting to see what he can do against Bucknell then Oral Roberts. (Just kidding, I mean Memphis).

Now, on to the rules I've devised to analyze the tournament! If you want to see the rules I’ve devised, check out the link to last year’s blog article. http://thedawggs.blogspot.com/2005_03_01_thedawggs_archive.html

Rule 3 – When a non-1 seed wins, it happens in 2 straight years followed by multiple years of 1-seeds reclaiming the crown.
I slightly modified the original wording of the rule, because it wasn’t clear. The moral of the story is that last year a 1-seed, UNC won after a couple of non-1s had won (3-Syracuse, 2-Uconn). What this means is that a 1-seed is winning this year and in 2007 as a minimum.

As a result, this leaves us down to Uconn, Villanova, Duke, and Memphis as the candidates. Sorry Memphis, but I can’t go with a Conference-USA team. Villanova has way too many question marks with the lack of availability of Roy, who suffered an eye injury. Duke has no bench to speak of which will end up being their doom at some point. This leaves us with Uconn as the champion this year. I really don’t care that they lost to Syracuse in the Big East tourney, this team is stacked and I expect Coach Calhoun to find a way.

Rule 4 – A 12-seed always beats a 5 (except in 2000)
This year, my team of choise is definitely NOT Kent State (MAC sucked, see below), Montana (terrible RPI, I mean, a 91!), so I’m down to either Texas A & M against Syracuse or Utah State against Washington. I probably will go with Texas A & M, because I don’t think that Gerry Mcnamara has any magic fairy dust left.

Rule 6 – One conference will have multiple teams in the Final 4.
Just about every year this happens. The Big East is by far the best conference this year. I already have Uconn in the final 4, it’s just a matter of picking someone else. The problem is Villanova is missing its best player. The problem with picking the Big 10 to have two means that either Illinois or Michigan State would probably have to survive the Uconn region, which is just a low percentage outcome. Basically, everything’s tied to the Region of Death, Uconn’s region. I’m actually having trouble figuring out some likely outcomes. Here are the 4 options I’ve devised, and I’ll probably choose one of them later this week. Note: I’m probably choosing one of the first 3 options, because I’m taking Uconn all the way.
Option 1 – Texas, Pitt, Uconn, Ohio State
Option 2 – Texas, Indiana, Uconn, Ohio State
Option 3 – W. Va, UCLA, Uconn, Ohio State
Option 4 – Duke, UCLA, Michigan St, Ohio State
Option 5 – Duke, UCLA, UNC, Ohio State
CBS's dream option – Duke, Gonzaga, UNC, Villanova
NOTE: I'm assuming the kid from 'Nova doesn't play, and if he plays, he won't be 100%.

Rule 8 - The MAC has never gone consecutive years w/o winning a tourney game (well, since 1994 anyway).
This rule needs serious updating. The MAC already has struck out in 2004 and 2005. This year will probably be a 20-point victory for Pitt over Kent St. This was the worst year in about 15 years. There was not one “quality win” in the WHOLE CONFERENCE. I’m not talking about just Kent St. The whole conference stunk it up this year, and I don’t see why things would change now.

Rule 9: If you win your conference tourney, you are in a power conference, then you won't do well in the NCAA tourney. (Exception: top 10 teams)
This is by far, my favorite superstition which has worked out pretty well. This year, I was really debating whether I should work on the definition of the rule, because should I count teams that end up making the top 10 in the last week? Or just those teams who are already in the top 10? To be as fair as possible, I’m counting whoever is in the top 10 at the end.
So, the teams that are suspect are: Big East Syracuse, Big Ten- Iowa, Big12 – Kansas. Beware of picking these teams beyond the 2nd round. It saddens me that Kansas is on this list, so I may take them farther anyway.

Experimental Rule 11: The 1-seed with the worst strength of schedule will NOT make the Final 4.
This rule is just downright scary. Granted, it’s not 100%, but then again, no rule has 100% certainty, they are only guidelines to be used to control the Madness. Last year’s Illinois team had the worst strength of schedule of the 1-seeds, but still made the finals. Obviously, Illinois was a special team. This year’s cursed team is none other than Memphis. Only another reason to pick against Memphis!