Sunday, May 08, 2011

Baseball Predictions: Nearing 40 games

As we near the magical 40 game mark (I'm not sure what makes it magical but hey why not) it probably is time to take stock to see what is sustainable and what is not. The past few years first place in early May is no guarantee of future success as on average about only half of the teams in first place at this time of year finish the year in first place. So which teams are most likely to fall off the map?

Baseball prospectus currently guesses at LA Angels and Colorado. I have no reason to disagree with the mighty BP but I would also add Cleveland to the mix. Cleveland is outperforming everyone's expectations. Why I'm starting to hesitate to immediately dismiss the North Coast revival is who in the AL Central is going to step up to catch the Tribe? Detroit's hitting and monetary constraints on Minnesota/Chicago make each passing day more likely that there's something sustainable for Acta's crew.

The one interesting race to watch might be Philly v. Atlanta. Pythag (run differential) has Atlanta and Philly neck and neck although it's hard to imagine Philly faltering with it's pitching staff. Nonetheless something to keep an eye on......

What's others predictions and thoughts?

1 comment:

MJ said...

As you wrote, the AL Central is a division that should theoretically be up for the taking this year. As a result, there is no reason why the Indians couldn't remain competitive and challenge for a division title.

My best guess for Philly is not that their pitching will propel them but that their offense will provide the margin of victory over Atlanta. Philly has offensive depth in places where Atlanta doesn't (corner infield, second base, bench) and regular season success tends to be greatly influenced by how consistent a team's offense can be.