Monday, May 30, 2011

7th Annual NBA Finals Preview

Just as a recap, in 2005, my NBA Finals Preview used Star Wars quotes. In 2006, I used Indiana Jones quotes. In 2007, I used Back to the Future quotes. In 2008, I used Aliens vs. Predators quotes from both AVP1 and AVP2 (because I hated both teams and because there were hardly enough quotes from any AVP movie worthy of a blog entry.) In 2009, I used quotes from Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story because I believed the Magic would topple the Lakers (though I was wrong as usual)... Without further adieu, it is time to analyze the classic NBA finals matchup that is before us. In 2010, I used quotes from Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, mainly because I was sour that the Cavs didn't make the finals.

For the record, I have only been right in 2005 (Spurs) and 2007 (Spurs). This is pretty awful how wrong I am about the NBA Finals. I keep picking with my heart... 2006 (Mavs over Heat because I thought the Heat were too old), 2008 (Lakers over Celtics because I hated the acquisition of the big 3), 2009 (I believed in Dwight Howard too much), 2010 (I thought Bynum was injured).

This year, I really just need to laugh away the pain of possibly seeing LeBron and the Miami Heat win a championship in their 1st season without any suitable big men presence, so this year's movie choice? The Naked Gun! (Side note, I believe the Miami Heat would have had a lot more trouble with Orlando, Memphis, or the Lakers and their respective big men. Miami didn't have to play any of them due to the way the bracket shaped up.) Okay, enough about that, let's get to it!

Frank: Jane, since I've met you, I've noticed things that I never knew were there before... birds singing, dew glistening on a newly formed leaf, stoplights.

This goes out to Joel Anthony. I often make fun of the Heat center, but he actually is better at blocking shots and protecting the rim than I realized. Granted, I still think Tyson Chandler will outrebound him to no end, as Chandler had 17 rebounds in the 1st game between Miami and Dallas during the season (against 6 for Z and Anthony) and he then had 10 rebounds (against 10) in the rematch. Dallas won both games during the season... but Dallas also had Caron Butler in both games.

Frank: Interesting... almost as interesting as the photographs I saw today.
Jane: I was young! I needed the work!

This one goes out to Mike Bibby. He originally played for a crappy Grizzlies team, but he needed the money.

Frank: It's fourth and fifteen and you're looking at a full-court press.

This one goes to LeBron... because he usually does run into the paint with the velocity and power of a fullback hitting the hole.

Ed: Doctors say that Nordberg has a 50/50 chance of living, though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

I think this is the odds of this NBA Finals working out for the Mavs... there is rationally a 50-50 chance of Dallas winning, but Dallas is probably only going to be picked by 10% of the public to win the series!

Frank: It's a topsy-turvy world, and maybe the problems of two people don't amount to a hill of beans. But this is our hill. And these are our beans!

Dallas's biggest problem is that they probably are at a lack of athleticism on the wings when dealing with LeBron and Wade. However, Dallas likes to play zone (unlike many other teams). In fact, according to Sports Illustrated, LeBron and Wade shot only 3 for 17 against Dallas' zone during the season! Playing more zone might be the one ace up Dallas' sleeve that could turn this series... but I'm still doubtful.

The one other area that Dallas could end up winning is with Dirk. Who is guarding Dirk? Haslem did a great job on Dirk in 2006, as reported by SI and others, but Bosh got more of the assignment during the season. If Dirk can be very efficient in enough games, he could try to tilt the series in Dallas' favor... but I'm still doubtful.

Perhaps the other biggest problem for Dallas is that they have gotten great offensive production out of JJ Barea. However, if he's on the floor, he would have to be guarding Bibby/Chalmers. The problem is that the Heat have been moving more and more to a 4th-quarter lineup of Bosh-LeBron-Haslem-M. Miller-Wade. In that situation, Barea would be forced to give up many inches to M. Miller? Or to be stuck on Wade? These don't seem like good choices. Against Ok City, it seemed to not be as bad because Westbrook wasn't nearly as efficient as Wade.

Frank: Wilma, I promise you; whatever scum did this, not one man on this force will rest one minute until he's behind bars. Now, let's grab a bite to eat.

This one goes out to Dirk and Terry. They are the only ones left who have dealt with the nightmare of being up 2-0 in the NBA Finals against Miami and being up double digits in the fourth in game 3... only to blow game 3 and the entire series. It's up to them to not rest and to seize this improbable second chance at a championship!
Unfortunately, I don't think it's going to happen. The NBA is probably going to let the refs call a loose game where D. Wade and LeBron get away with more than they should and the Heat will probably roll to victory in this series because the Mavs have to rely on DeShawn Stevenson and old-man Shawn Marion to guard Wade and LeBron respectively. I don't think Dirk's history with Haslem is encouraging either. Miami Heat in 6.

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