Sunday, January 30, 2005

NBA Midseason: Redux

Well if Ivan is giving out awards like Koosed gives out bad advice then I'm all over it like a fat kid on a cupcake. Here's a little list of my take on the NBA season

Midseason MVP:

I keep harping it but I gotta go with Nash. If I was to overlook Nash I would go with....Dwayne Wade. Miami is the best team in the East. With Shaq there, everyone else tends to get overlooked. When a key shot needs to be made in the fourth quarter.. the Flash is getting the ball. Against Houston today he had 30-8-7, now thats a stat sheet. I'm never certain what criteria one judges the MVP. If it is which player is an integral part of a succesful team it would be Nash. If an MVP is the player, on a championship caliber team, you want holding the rock on then its Wade.

Rookie of the Year:
Omeka Okafor. Is he a good player on a crappy team or just an average player on a really crappy team. Beats me. But you don't reattle off like 18 straight double-doubles without getting a little dap. Sometimes staying in school pays off. My only question if Okafor was a high schooler would he be as ignored by the media as he is now. And then the media wonders why high schoolers come out in droves. Tisk Tisk.

Most Inspirational:

Grant Hill and his most improved Orlando Magic. Did anyone see this guy playing in February last year? Did anyone see Orlando in the playoffs? That would be a negative, houston. I don't care if the NBA has to invent award, Grant Hill deserves a trophy for something.

Most Disappointing:

Minnesota..This is a team that was poised for an NBA run and then they remembered sharing don't pay the dogs. Latrell "12 million dollars a year doesn't feed my family" Sprewell started the me-ism and the disease has spread. The Candyman and Cassel seemed to have the disease and/or no ligments in their legs. Garnett is probably in line for most frustrated NBA player award.

Best Hairdo
Anderson Varejao...he's so money and he doesn't even know it.

NFL Draft Watch:
Begins now. Unleash Mel Kiper from his holding cell.

Thursday, January 27, 2005

NBA Mid-Season Review

Welcome to the bye week between the NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl. Honestly, this bye week drives me nuts. I know the NFL wants the players to get healthy, but it just gets me all antsy. I think there has never been a more fitting time for an...

NBA Mid-season Review

Let’s hand out some awards, and maybe even glance ahead to the playoffs, considering I had San Antonio over Indiana, and well, the Pacers have been missing some people you might say.

On to the awards…

Favorite Breakout Player- Dan Dickau

Dickau was a sharpshooter on Gonzaga for 2 years. His 2nd year (2002), Gonzaga was ranked like 11th, and got a 6th seed. Everyone, including myself, was shocked. This was an insult. Well, Gonzaga lost in the 1st round! In 2004, Gonzaga was once again ranked high all season, snagged a 2-seed, and lost in the 2nd round. Gonzaga seems to do better when they are a lower seed for some reason.
Anyway, after bouncing around for 3 teams, averaging only 7 minutes/night and 2 ppg, Dickau is suddenly getting 30 min/night on the New Orleans Hornets, and is now averaging 13 ppg, and constantly springs for 20 points. Granted, Dickau can’t take them to the playoff-land (the Hornets are 7-34), but since Dickau got there, the Hornets are 7-30. I mean, w/o Dickau, they wouldn’t have won any games.

Most Disappointing Team – Denver Nuggets

There were a lot of candidates for this (Minnesota, Utah, among others) but the Nuggets are just horrific. Let’s recap what happened w/ their personnel: they ADDED Kenyon Martin, lost SG Voshon Lenard to an injury, and for some reason chose to let Jon Barry leave. It seems like they should be fine still, but Carmelo has shown that he can’t take the shots all night. This team is in desperate need of a shooter. You’d think there would be more people like Dickau lying around. Denver is in desperate need of being able to spread the floor, since Andre Miller & Earl Boykins, while very effective, still aren’t pure outside shooters. Also, Jon Barry may be the most underrated spark plug off the bench. On Sacramento in the late ‘90s, he was excellent in helping the Kings. Ultimately, this team should just trade one of their 5 forwards for some more shooting.

Most Surprising Team – Seattle Supersonics

Also many candidates for this (Phoenix, Washington (Golden State-East)). During my NBA preview, this is what I had to say about the Sonics: “Seattle- These guys are terrible.” Was I ever wrong. Their TEAM is shooting 38.2% from 3-point land! It’s unbelievable. This team is basically using PF Fortson as a center, and spreading the floor with 4 shooters. I’m glad to see how effective this is, and I hope more teams recognize the worth in having pure shooters, and start drafting to fill the need. Then again, Ray Allen may have just sold his soul to the devil in order to get a good contract extension.

Best Feel Good Story – Washington Wizards

I could go anywhere w/ this category. But let’s be honest here- this team is Golden State – East. They use Jamison, Hughes, Arenas who were all recently on Golden State. In my preview I said, “If they would have brought Early Boykins, I would consider the playoffs.” Well, I underestimated how weak the East is, and how much of a leap Hughes would make this year (his 7th year in the league, though he is just 26). I still don’t understand why more people don’t latch on to this story, about recreating the Warriors. You could interview people from Oakland, and see how upset they get. It’s great journalism.

Unbelievable Mid-season Trade- Carlos Arroyo

Arroyo seemed like a star-in-the-making for Utah last year. He disagrees w/ Sloan on fundamental things and he gets shipped out to the defending champion Detroit Pistons who have a lack of point guards. Talk about a great trade! Now, the Pistons don’t even have to always rely on Chauncey Billups. The Pistons are so deep, I’m frightened to even face them in the playoffs. 3 guesses as to the “fundamental differences” , 1) Arroyo is a firm believer in the zone defense and Sloan still swears it’s illegal, 2) Arroyo thinks new teammate Carlos Boozer’s chest hair smells funky, 3) Arroyo gave Sloan bad advice on his NBA fantasy team.

Outlook

If I had to make a new prediction, it would be hard to NOT predict San Antonio over Miami in the finals at this point. The Heat are just incredible, since there are only like 2 other centers in the East besides Shaq. Granted, no matter what seed the Pistons get, they could be extremely dangerous in the playoffs. Of course I love what LeBron is doing, but this is not the year for the Cavs to go all the way… yet. The Suns are amazing, beyond anything I could have expected though I dubbed them my “surprise” team. Ultimately, Nash is a liability on defense, and that team would have a hard time against any teams w/ good point guards. Well, I hope you enjoyed this change in programming. The Super Bowl is still ages away.

Monday, January 24, 2005

Mirror Images

Eagles v. Pats. You can sell a million ways but I'm selling it a matchup of the dynasties. What is a dynasty well one definition goes something like this:
a group that maintains power for several generations

That would be the Eagles and Pats, almost mirror images of one another. Sure the Eagles are the weaker brother of the dynasty but does anyone doubt that they have been the 400 lb gorrilla of the NFC. While the Pats are on route for their third superbowl in four years, the Eagles have made it four straight years to the title game. Both have masterminds of defense reducing MVP candidates and the young to their knees. Michael Vick looked flawed and mortal. By the end, Rothlisberger was crying like Koosed without a Chicken Ceasar Salad. Both team's quarterbacks are maestros, managing the weather and their teams with ease. Baseball has what I term top heavy parity (theres only 8 good teams but they easily balance on another year to year) Football has bottom heavy parity- a bunch of mediocore teams clawing for a playoff spot while high on Mount Olympus Belichek and Reid laugh at their efforts. They bestride the NFL world like Colosseuses in recent years (I'm certain if Shakespeare was alive today he'd cover the NFL) and for all the claims of parity this should be the year that that illusion evaporates.

Player of the Week: Jeremiah Trotter. He led the team in tackles. He has a cool finishing move (the wood cutter) He is the reason why the Eagles stopped the Atlanta rushing game while Cleveland cut through it (He didnt start till week 9).

Player I feel the Worst For: Jerome Bettis. For all the weeping over Brett Favre, I think Bettis symbolizes what it is good about football. The hardnosed approach, the indominable spirit, the shimmy. Here is a man that doesn't just talk the talk about money but he took the pay cut so he could stay in Pittsburgh. It would almost be fitting for him to retire with Eddie George, his fellow running back warrior.

Pundit Watch


Line of the week: Norman Chad:
At the NFC championship game, a half-frozen 10-year-old sang the national anthem before the Falcons-Eagles game. I hate to nitpick, but some adult was whispering the words into his ear! It felt like the presidential debates all over again.

Why It's Good to Be a Pundit: Peter King's $105 philly cheese steak...that Sports Illustrated paid for. 1) That better be the best philly cheese steak ever and 2) I never ever want to hear him to do social commentary and/or belief that he's just a common person (and that includes Starbucks references)

NBA tidbits: 1) Baby Bulls - .500 ball and the 7th seed
2) Nash gets hurt. Suns plummet. Any questions on who's the MVP?
3) I can no longer defend the Eastern Division. They should donate their playoff spot to charity or something

Thursday, January 20, 2005

Lost & Found: Rule 6

I’m so mad that I forgot about this rule. I forgot about Rule 6:

Rule 6: "If you beat a team by 30 or more points in the playoffs, you will lose your next game (90% of the time). If you beat a team by 40 or more points in the playoffs, you ALWAYS lose your next game. "

It’s a completely ridiculous rule, but somehow holds true the vast majority of the time. Recent examples: 1999 Jacksonville blows out Miami by 55 points, loses in the AFC Championship to Tennessee. 2002 NY Jets beats the Colts by 41 points, loses its next game to Oakland. 2000 NFC Championship game, the Giants beat the Vikings 43-0. Next week, they get blown out in the Super Bowl. 1993 NFC Playoffs – the 49ers blow out the Giants 44-3, only to lose in the NFC Championship game to the Cowboys.

My favorite example of all time though: the Buffalo Bills winning 51-3 in the 1990 AFC Championship game against the Raiders. Scott Norwood caps off the collapse by missing the field goal in the Super Bowl.
Indy was an exception in 2003, when they beat the Broncos by 31, then beat the Chiefs the next week. I guess you’re just supposed to blow out the Broncos each year.
The best explanation is overconfidence. A team just gets too cocky when this happens, and the other team gets so mad because they get ignored during the week by the media, and all the media does is focus on how the one team won a game by 40 points. It also forces the new opponent to make sure they make many creative adjustments, while the team that won by 40 points is hesitant to adjust anything.

A secondary explanation is the “I just blew my load” theory. That’s right, you blow your whole load on one game, with nothing left, no energy, no determination, and you don’t even give a full effort in practice the next week, and all the players end up doing lines off of their favorite strippers.

I’d also like to introduce a rule, that is as simple as can be…
Rule 7 - #1 seeds NEVER lose to #6 seeds. 8-0 all-time, now 9-0.

I’d like to now say, that nothing would surprise me with the final 4 we have. Anything is possible, as all 4 have great strengths, and some weaknesses.

Atlanta @ Philadelphia-
Houston. We have a problem. I’ve been saying ALL SEASON that is the Eagles destiny to lose in the final 4. In addition, I’ve been on the Vick-Duckett-Dunn triumvirate bandwagon almost all season. Destiny says Falcons, meanwhile, the Falcons won by exactly 30 points last week, so Rule 6 says Eagles. I have to stick w/ the Rules.
Pick: Eagles

New England @ Pittsburgh-
Rule 5: AT LEAST 1 Home team will win in the final 4. Both road teams almost never win (last time was 1992 – Bills won in Miami, Dallas won in San Fran), though almost every year, there’s often times there is 1 upset in the final 4. This means that it’s really difficult for me to pick Colts over Falcons, since they both would likely have to win on the road.

So, we’ll stick w/ the rules. The Eagles win at home, allowing the Patriots to win on the road.
Pick: Patriots

I also learned something last weekend, that I'm really going to take to heart. Since the playoffs expanded in 1990, only 11 road teams have won in the divisional round. ELEVEN!!!! Think about that. I tried to think of them off the top of my head, and I almost did it. Just for educational value, let’s take a look at the Exciting Eleven:

1992 Buffalo – after the greatest comeback in NFL history in the 1st round against the Oilers, there was no stopping these guys from losing in the Super Bowl. They were 11-5, and won at Pittsburgh (11-5) then 11-5 Miami.
1993 Kansas City – 11-5 won at 12-4 Houston. Houston had lots of trouble in the playoffs, even though they were immensely talented.
1995 Indy – 9-7 won at 13-3 and #1 seed! KC. KC was coached by Marty Schottenheimer. We’ll call this the Schottenheimer effect.
1995 Green Bay – 11-5 won at 11-5 San Fran. Not much of an upset.
1996 Jacksonville – 9-7 won at 13-3 and #1 seed Denver. I think this is the most shocking upset of the modern playoff era. Denver went on to win the next 2 Super Bowls, but this Jacksonville team rolled into town on a 7-game losing streak (went from 3-7 to 9-7 to make the playoffs, and then won at Buffalo & Denver).
1997 Denver – 12-4 Denver won at #1 seed 13-3 KC. Schottenheimer effect.
1999 Tennessee – Music City Miracle in 1st round. Resulted in 12-4 winning at 13-3 Indy. Jim Mora effect. Mora never won a playoff game.
2000 Baltimore – 12-4 at #1 seed Tennessee. Hungrier team, w/ no respect from media or Gutsy Goldberg.
2001 Philly – 11-5 won at 13-3 Chicago. Chicago won at least 4 games they shouldn’t have. No won outside of Mike Ditka was surprised.
2003 Carolina- 11-5 won at 12-4 St. Louis. Double OT. Carolina proved they had passing attack in playoffs. Martz is a crazy head coach, who caused another loss.
2003 Indy- 12-4 won at 13-3 KC. KC had no defense, finished the season 3-3, won 4 extra games just from Dante Hall’s returns.

Last week 3-1 (Damn Colts. Thanks for not using the no-huddle the whole game. Thanks for not even attempting to throw the ball 20 yards downfield)
Playoffs: 4-4 (Pathetic, I know)

Monday, January 17, 2005

The Art of the Pick

The biggest weekend in the NFL and the favorites held sway. No upsets, no road victories, nothing. Home teams 4 Road Teams 0. Sure some people (who will merely refer to as I. Goldberg or Ivan G.) went with the team du jure (read the Colts). However I did not budge. Much like Laz at an all-you-can-eat-buffet, I never wavered or moved, no matter the odds. At the begining of the season I called KC v. Philly in the Super Bowl. Well that pick turned out to be semi-prophetic (much like this article is semi-funny. its not exactly funny but it doesn't drive people into fits of rage like Sean Salisbury). When I was first picking the great decision was between KC and New England. Its tough to repeat but here is what New England has in its favor that everyone (read Ivan) overlooked.

1) Corey Dillon - New England punished the Colts in the trenches and Dillon smacked the Colts linebackers around. He's an explosive runner and a HUGE upgrade over last years running back (I think they used Hugh Grant last year)

2) Schemes - I'm not sure who calls the schemes (whether its Belichek or Crennel) but New England's D got better as the game went on. Not only are they prepared but they make the adjustments during the game which I consider the hallmark of good coaching. The question on every Brown's fan's mind is how much does Crennel influence the D since its looking like Crennel is choice number 1 for the Browns abandoned coaching post.

3) Rest - New England had its bye in week 3. That is a whole lot football played with very little rest. The week off had New England rested and focused. Speaking of rest all those knuckleheads who cried out about Andy Reid resting its players for a month should publicly apologize. Reid is undefeated coming off a bye week and boy did Philly have time off. Minnesota was never in that game either.

Next week has some close games but I'm sticking with the horses I rode in on . Just remember its not as important whether you absolutely win or lose but that you beat your co-host whether its John Clayton and Sean Salisbury, Tony Kornheiser and Mike Wilbon, Ivan Goldberg and Michael Cohen or George Bush and a pretzel.

Thursday, January 13, 2005

Must-See Thursdays & Crazy 8s

That’s right. I apologize for the unannounced schedule change, but the powers that be (“The Man”) have told me that additional advertising revenues can be made by me switching my column to Thursdays. Back to our regular progamming...

I have to first say a little bit about last week’s Chargers debacle against the Jets.

Did you Know?
John Madden said that Antonio Gates used a “basketball move” on every catch last week. When he failed to catch it though, he would say, those “basketball moves” aren’t going to work in the NFL. Then, when Gates faked out his defender, caught the ball, and rumbled for 50 yards, Madden said, "Basketball moves work great in the NFL." You can’t have it both ways Madden! Either praise his basketball skills or not.

I will say this- after Tony Gonzalez and now Antonio Gates, I’m completely convinced that you can convert any 6’5” athletic forward from college basketball into an All-Pro TE without any college football experience. I’m on the bandwagon, and the next one that I know of will be on my fantasy team.
Meanwhile, Coach Schottenheimer just dropped the ball in OT of the game by settling for a 40-yard field goal. He’s scared out of his mind after all of his playoff collapses. At any moment I was fearful of Marty releasing his bowels on national television. Instead, he went home and cried.

As for Moss’s fake mooning, I really don’t care. How in the world this is worse than "fake-killing," or "fake-digging a grave" as a celebration is beyond me. And by “beyond me” I mean it makes absolutely no sense. Thank you FCC for protecting America's youth from fake-mooning. I mean gosh, nothing could be worse.

The most shocking thing is that after no 8-8 teams ever winning a playoff game, both the Vikings & the Rams won! It’s insanity, and that’s why I love the NFL. The Rams were feasible winners, I mean they had swept the Seahawks. The Vikings was against all odds. Yes, before the season began, I had a Colts-Vikings super bowl. But at this point, after finishing 3-7 (again), being 8-8 (which is worse than last year), and not even trying to lift a finger, I didn’t expect much effort in Green Bay. The fact remains, GB’s defense is terrible, and Favre only loses games for them at this point (seriously, they win when they can run Ahman Green all day). So, the Vikings got a big enough lead that Favre had to throw. Simple. Now, let’s turn our attention to this week’s games, and here’s a reprint of the rules that I go by for picking NFL games:

Rule 1: It’s tough to beat a team you already beat. If you played a team once, the losing team OFTEN wins the rematch.
Rule 2: If you swept a team, you probably WILL beat them a 3rd time (This means Green Bay and St. Louis are in good situations.)
Rule 3: NO ONE wins consecutive weeks against the same team.
Rule 4: 8-8 Teams don’t win playoff games. They just don’t win games. It’s simple.
Rule 5: AT LEAST 1 Home team will win in the final 4. Both road teams almost never win.

I must say one thing about Rule 1, beating a team you already beat during the season. It’s a weak rule, and is probably only right maybe 60% of the time, whereas the other rules are up around 80%-100% successful.
Interestingly enough, EVERY GAME THIS WEEK IS A REMATCH. And EVERY HOME team won the 1st bout, meaning that according to Rule 1, all the ROAD teams are winning! I’m going to rank the games by the chances of Rule 1 working (meaning the Road team winning).

Let me be frank. This has never happened, and I’m not going to predict it.

Colts @ Pats-
This is the one game where I’m going with Rule 1. I’m also creating a special rule just for the Colts for this year. Special Rule: “If the wind is below 10 mph, and the chance of precipitation is below 20%, the Colts will win the game.”
Forecast as of Thursday afternoon for Boston: 9 mph winds, 10% chance of precipitation.
In addition, I’m just hoping that Peyton can take advantage of all the injured Pats’ cornerbacks. Finally, I can’t remember being more excited for an elite 8 NFL game.
Pick: Colts

Rams @ Falcons-
If the Rams were coached by anyone other than Martz, I would probably say they would win. But I don’t trust Martz, and I have no reason to. This game is really interesting. The Falcons have a great front 7, but their secondary is suspect. A lot of teams have passed on them this year (Chiefs, Broncos, Panthers,). Ultimately, it comes down to how often Martz runs the ball to milk the clock, because the Falcons are capable of using their 3 RBs (Vick, Dunn, Duckett) to beat every NFC team. I’m guessing both teams will score 4 touchdowns.
Pick: Falcons

Vikings @ Eagles-
I think we are dangerously close to having (2) 8-8 teams in the NFC championship game (if we even want to call it that). I just don’t have the balls to pick it. The fact is, the Eagles have no run defense. Don’t listen to what anyone tells you, because all season this has been a problem for the Eagles. And if the Vikings have any brains, they will use all of their Pro-bowl caliber backs (w/ each of their trademark items): Bennett and his sore hammy, Onterrio Smith and his dubie, Mewelde Moore and his dreadlocks, and Moe Williams and his moustache. Ultimately, no one knows what Viking team will show up. I will say, Culpepper vs. McNabb is always fun, and I will be cheering for the Vikings, but it seems like too much for them to go into the rudest city in America, Philly, and win. Anyways, it’s the Eagles destiny to host another NFC Championship game and lose. No one messes w/ destiny.
Pick: Eagles

Jets @ Steelers-
The Jets haven’t really been playing great. In addition, the Steelers 2nd & 3rd strings were manhandling the Bills the last week. Short of Pennington hitting Santana Moss on 3 homerun balls, I don’t see the Jets pulling off the revenge factor.
Pick: Steelers

Last week: 1-3 (I only got the Colts right. All those road teams won, and I wasn’t expecting it. Don’t worry, my final 4 is still intact.)

Monday, January 10, 2005

And the Beat Goes On

Remember earlier this year when no one could figure out what the hell was going on in the NFL? Well to quote Poltergeist "It's Back!"

Could even Ivan's rule handle this helter skelter that is the NFL? Short answer: No

Indy v. Denver:
Ivan's rule: It’s tough to beat a team you already beat. Denver should lose and boy did they ever. Peyton and his majestic offense put up 35 points in the first half. Manning ended up throwing for more yards than any other quarterback in a playoff game....except for Bernie Kosar (we still love you Bernie!) On the brightside for Denver...no blame can be leveled at Jake Plummer.
Ivan 1 NFL 0

Rams v. Seahawks:
Ivan's rule: 8-8 Teams don’t win playoff games (0-8 going into this year i.e. Rams should lose). On the other hand Rams swept Seahawks during the season. So Ivan's rules appear to contradict one another. Nonetheless there had to be a winner and it was the Rams. I've given a lot of heat to Mad Martz this year but damn give that man some dap. His offense and playcalling were Superb. He used the Marshall Plan and the Jackson Plan (i.e. running the ball). Third and Two, fake into the line and throw to the tight end. Somewhere Bill Walsh is smiling. On the other hand if anyone in all of Seattle could catch a ball the Rams would have lost. Got to feel a little for Matt Hasselback...last year he threw the winning pass (albeit for the opposing team) . This year short of covering the ball with glue, his receivers couldn't hang onto the ball.
Split decision: Ivan 2 NFL 1

Jets v. Chargers
See Rule #1. Jets won the first game. They stumbled into the playoffs losing to the Rams and possibly the Washington Generals. They looked sorry. But old Marty ball returned. You know ultra-conservative (possibly symbolized when he punted on second down or at least thats how it felt). Also Herm Edwards knows a great New Orleans woman that does this fancy voodoo curse. In other news Drew Brees' arm fell off.

Ivan 2 NFL 2

The rubber match: Vikings v. Packers
Packers had swept the Vikings. The Vikings were 8-8. Vikings couldn't win outside. Favre hadn't lost outside (besides to Michael Vick) since the Neanderthals hit a field goal in OT. None of that mattered. The Vikings beat Green Bay like a rented mule. Let's be honest Green Bay has been an above average team for the past three years. Coach/GM/Wisconsin Governor Mike Sherman suited up only 4 receivers (one of whom was just signed off the practice field). That doesn't cut it in this league. Once again Mike Sherman shows why coaches shouldn't be GMs.
2 Laws get broken and in a romp the NFL beats Ivan 4-2

Michael Wilbon, in the Washington Post, discusses today an issue that I am sure will hang over pundits and the State of Wisconsin: Is this the end of Brett Favre? Favre is such a beloved figure that he often gets a free pass. The past few years have been good but not great. Yesterday Favre threw 4 INTs. Sure the receivers ran some bad routes and Favre got some unlucky breaks, but he threw into some bad coverage and hung the ball out there a lot. More than that, the old fire was gone. The man that would head butt Warren Sapp or leap for joy following a TD was not on that field yesterday. I suppose we all need to mature but after all that has happened to Favre, both on and off the field, I'm not as sure as I used to be that Brett will be back.

While on the subject of punditry, one of my favorite targets, is the "Moonsota" incident. Yes Randy Moss pretended to moon some fans. Was it classless? Yes. Was it insulting? Yes. Is he now in the league of Terrel Owens for jack-ass moves? Yes. Do I sound like Donald Rumsfeld? Yes. However the reaction out of FOX and ESPN was so over the top, it should be laughable. Both networks refused to re-show the incident. Let me repeat that: FOX and ESPN refused to show a Randy Moss PRETENDING to moon the fans. No ass was visible. Any network that shows ArmWrestling (ESPN) or Who's Your Daddy (FOX) should be barred from making any statements on taste, quality or obscenity (whatever the hell that means). To all you networks and pundits I give you the following:



Wednesday, January 05, 2005

Ultimate Playoff Preview & 2004 Recap

Before we get into the games this week, we need to cover a few issues. First off, congratulations to USC, for thoroughly beating Oklahoma and once again (as usual) proving that the Big 12 is just a weak conference. I still really wanted to see USC vs. Auburn, but that’s how the cookie crumbles. Anyway, I did some major research and it’s time for…

Goldberg’s Fantasy Football Recap 2004

Best decision: Picking TO with a 2nd-round pick
Worst decision: McNair as a “value” 4th round pick. He barely even played.
Worst decision Part 2: Brunell as my backup QB.
Worst decision Part 3: Kerry Collins as my 3rd string QB, during his 3 TD – 13 INT streak.
This resulted in a very bad team, since I was posting low numbers at QB, and I had no RB depth.

Sleeper pick

Every year, I have a “super-sleeper” who usually, no one knows about. Since it’s winter vacation, I’m going to try and show you how good I usually am at this fun game. The “sleeper” has to be either a) a rookie that most people aren’t planning on drafting or b) a younger known player that I will be picking really high

1994- Ben Coates TE, New England – I thought another season of Bledsoe would work out well. And it did! He went from 700 yards to 1174 (though he did go down from 8 to 7 TDs).
1995- Curtis Martin RB, New England (A relatively unknown rookie who ended up with 1487 yards and 15 TDs. Not starting him the first week of the season cost me, but who would have known he would kick his career off with 120 yards and 2 TDs? Just looked up on NFL.com, he was the 9th RB taken that year. I just knew New England needed a starting RB, and he might be the guy.)
1996- Mark Brunell QB, Jacksonville (Brunell had 2200 yards, 19TD in ’95. He had 4300 yards, 22 TD in ’96)
1997- I was in college and I can’t remember.
1998- I was in college and I can’t remember.
1999- I was in college and I can’t remember.
2000-I was in college, but this one was so bad I still remember! Thomas Jones RB, Arizona (rookie, he sucked. I think I’ve had him on my team every year until this year, when he finally started producing like he was supposed to.)
2001-David Boston WR, Arizona – not as much of a sleeper, since he had 1100 yards the previous year. But he bumped it up to 1600 yards, and people really took notice.
2002- Clinton Portis RB, Denver – by this point, going with the latest Denver Rookie RB always seemed to work. This year, Terrell Davis was rumored to be returning, as well as Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson. Portis was a great pick, but I had no receivers this year and so Portis’s 1500 yards and 17TDs didn’t take me as far as they should have.
2003- Onterrio Smith RB, Minnesota - a slow start, but once he saw action he actually produced.
2004- Michael Jenkins WR, Atlanta – 7 active games and only 7 receptions. Wow. I’ve hit rock bottom.

If you haven’t noticed by now, I really focus on rookies who I think will see serious playing time, or younger players who haven’t been noticed yet. It tends to work pretty well, but I certainly had my worst choice ever this past year. I mean Jenkins only had 7 catches all year!

The Final Crazy Numbers

Last Week: 6-10
Season: 151-107 (58.5%)
Manwich Matchup: 7-11 (The Panthers lost to the Saints, and the Jets lost to the Rams once they had nothing to play for)
Upset Special: 7-9 (I didn’t have an upset special last week)

I didn’t think I’d ever go below 50% in a single week, and I did it a whopping 4 out of 17 weeks this year! Those 4 weeks, I went a combined 22-36 for a pathetic 38% success rate. The rest of the season actually went pretty well. I went 129-71 for a very good 65% success rate. It’s just that those 4 weeks brought me all the way down to 58.5%.

NFL Playoff Picks

Cohen already went through 3 of my rules for picking the playoffs in his column. Quick recap, and then we’ll add in 2 more.
Rule 1: It’s tough to beat a team you already beat. If you played a team once, the losing team OFTEN wins the rematch.
Rule 2: If you swept a team, you probably WILL beat them a 3rd time (This means Green Bay and St. Louis are in good situations.)
Rule 3: NO ONE wins consecutive weeks against the same team. This means that Denver has absolutely no chance this week against Peyton and the Colts. (Best example is when the Rams won vs. the Saints in 2000, only to play them again and then lose the rematch.)

Let’s add in the rest of the rules.
Rule 4: 8-8 Teams don’t win playoff games. They just don’t win games. It’s simple. The only problem is that the Rams are 8-8 but already swept the Seahawks. That’s a tossup situation.
Rule 5: AT LEAST 1 Home team will win in the final 4. Both road teams almost never win (last time was 1992 – Bills won in Miami, Dallas won in San Fran), though almost every year, there’s often times there is 1 upset in the final 4. This means that it’s really difficult for me to pick Colts over Falcons, since they both would likely have to win on the road.
As a matter of fact, 1996 was the last time both home teams won, and that was a fluky year with the Jags and Panthers (2 expansion teams) in the championship games. The last 8 years have seen exactly 1 road team win in the final 4, but the hardest question is always figuring out which team it will be.

AFC
NY Jets @ San Diego-
As Cohen pointed out in his column, these 2 teams met earlier in the season and the Jets won. Applying rule 1, San Diego should have no problem and be able to advance.
Pick: San Diego

Denver @ Indy-
Simple, apply rule 3. These teams played last week, and no one, I mean NO ONE can win 2 weeks in a row against the same team. And as Cohen pointed out, Peyton is playing this week.
Another question is which Champ Bailey will show up? Shut-down Champ, or the Champ that got burned by Chad Johnson and Peerless Price earlier this year?
Pick: Indy

NFC
Minnesota @ Green Bay-
I have to stick to my guns. Not only does Rule 2 apply, since Green Bay has swept Minnesota, but Rule 4 also applies, since Minnesota is now 8-8. Sorry, but my pre-season Super Bowl pick has hit the end of the road. Granted, it was a miracle for them to even make the playoffs the way they played the last 6 weeks. I think the Vikings only victory over the last 6 weeks was due to the Lions fumbling an extra point away! If I was Mike Tice, I would bring in a hypnotist to make everyone think it was week 7, when the Vikings always win.
Pick: Green Bay

St. Louis @ Seattle-
Now there are some problems with my rules here. First off, St. Louis swept Seattle (Rule 2). But St. Louis is 8-8 (Rule 4). Anything could happen in this game with these 2 rivals. I have to go with Seattle. If you look back, I’ve picked Seattle every time these 2 teams have matched up this year. It just seems ridiculous for Seattle to choke against the Rams for a 3rd straight game, and then they would be the most pathetic team for allowing an 8-8 team to advance.
Pick: Seattle

This is the one and only week where I’m going to forecast additional games.
AFC
The Colts will go to New England, and assuming the weather forecast stays the same, I’m applying Rule 1. Yes, New England beat the Colts in Week 1, and the Colts will get their revenge! And their revenge for last year’s AFC Championship game loss! Meanwhile, the Chargers will go to Pittsburgh, and as long as Roethlisberger’s ribs are healed, Pittsburgh should be fine. Finally, Peyton Manning will be able to abuse the Pittsburgh secondary, and put the Steelers behind for the first time since week 2, and Roethlisberger will force a couple of INTs, as the Colts go to the Super Bowl.
NFC
It’s a lot more simple in this conference. The most pivotal game would be Green Bay at Atlanta. Favre vs. Vick, the rematch (from the 2002 playoffs where Vick won in Green Bay). Ultimately, I see the Falcons running all over that weak Green Bay run defense. With Dunn, Duckett, and a healthy Vick, I don’t see Green Bay stopping that, and Favre will throw up enough interceptions. Meanwhile, Philadelphia will take care of Seattle. Atlanta will go to Philly, and the annual tradition of Philly losing in the NFC Championship game will continue. Without TO, there’s no hope. The Philly run defense is also weak, I mean the Browns were running all over them this season. In addition, the whole nation will realize that the Falcons 6’5” rookie receive Michael Jenkins is just unstoppable. And all of America will wonder, why didn’t this guy play during the season, and finally, my 2004 Fantasy sleeper will actually look good. And I will scream out, “REDEMPTION!”And my dream matchup will be complete. Manning vs. Vick. Completely going against my own Rule 5, since 2 road teams will win in the final 4. Manning has to get to the Super Bowl, and whatever inferior team from the NFC shows up will certainly lose.

Monday, January 03, 2005

Hello My Friend, Hello Again

When the Bard of Bards (i.e. Neil Diamond), sang the words "Hello my friend, hello again.." he was partly referring to the NFL playoffs and partly a tribute to the Applebees in Grand Rapids Michigan (its a long story but the short version involves rib eyes and a beautiful waittress). Nonetheless the reference to the NFL was obviously sarcasm. Familiarity breeds contempt, period. And there's a whole lot of contempt coming this weekend for the first round of the playoffs. To properly analyze the games I will use the three rules of Ivan's familiarity.
1. It's tough to beat a team you already beat - (San Diego v. New York Jets)

In week 2 the Jets topped the Chargers 34-28. Since then the Jets have done well against the crappy teams and stunk it up versus average/good teams (witness their loss to the 8-8 Rams). Herm "I'm trying to be crazier than Mike Martz" has had his fill of head scratchers. The Super-Chargers are fueled by Magic Marty and the best uniforms ever (love the powder blue love it).

2. It's really tough to beat a team three times in one year - (Minnesota v. Green Bay; Seattle v. St. Louis)

Both games in the NFC represent games against in-division rivals. Both games represent games where one of the teams swept the other. Not too long ago Pittsburgh pulled the trifeca against the Browns so sometimes a team just has the number. But Green Bay has LAMBOUGH FIELD, albeit two forces (global warming and Michael Vick) have hurt the mystic. St. Louis had one of the great comeback against Seattle this year (although they still have Mike Martz and a makeshift offensive line)

3. Don't even think about winning back to back games against the same team (Denver v. Indianapolis)

Denver beat up on the Colts in week 17 to make it into the playoffs. Their prize: playing the Colts on the road. Oh and some guy named Manning will be playing this time. That's like beating up Superman and then Superman takes off his kryptonite tux. Yeah what's going through Denver's head is basically: I hope this doesn't hurt too bad.

Who's Coming out on Top?
Well there is no good answer to this question. The NFC is full of at best mediocore and incomplete teams. The AFC is full of giants and intrigue. Does anyone really doubt that the AFC will win the Super Bowl again. Here are some major factors to keep your eye on:
1. Ref's - Will the Ref's be as stringent, less stringent or more stringent on pass interference. Remember the rule changes were all because of New England v. Indy
2. Richard Seymour's Health - Stopping the run is top predictor of going to the Super Bowl. Seymour is the Patroits top run -stopper. you do the math.
3. Big Ben's Ribs - Can his body take a shot? Ribs take an awful long time to heal
4. Michael Vick's hand- As of today Michael Vick has no feeling in his throwing hand. Now I'm just a simple graduate student but my understanding is that feeling in throwing hand is important to throwing.

My prediction:
New England repeats (does it really matter who they are playing. alright I'll throw out Philly)

Sugar Bowl: Auburn
NBA Championship: San Antonio over Miami (its a weekly column I can change it by the week)
My Dinner: Salad and maybe cheese and crackers.