2009 is an odd-numbered year and normally that means you can pencil in the Spurs as winning it all. However, the Spurs' era is coming to an end as Duncan is nursing a bad back and Manu Ginobili isn't even playing this postseason. With that out of the way, it's time to look at the insanity, including the matchups out West...
Western Conference
1-Lakers vs. 8-Utah - The Jazz have sadly limped to the finish, losing 7 of their last 11. Utah's center, Okur, injured his hamstring on Monday and missed the game against the Lakers on Tuesday. Hamstrings don't heal that quickly unfortunately. For whatever it's worth, in a double-digit loss, the Jazz still outrebounded the Lakers without Okur. Lamar Odom had a silly +28 in only 19 minutes. I really do think the Jazz could have the horses to make the series interesting, however, based on the Jazz continual injures though, they've yet to play the Lakers with Okur, Boozer, and Millsap all healthy. If Okur was healthy, I'd give the Jazz more of a chance to win more games.
Pick: Lakers in 5
4 vs 5 = Houston vs. Portland - Well, the games on Wednesday night have created what I would say is the most loaded 1st round matchup in a very, very long time [note: these two teams are playing each other, with the 4-seed dependent on Portland's game that started at 10:30PM]. I was hoping for one of these teams to be on the other half of the bracket so I could possibly pick one of them into the conference finals. Ugh. The Rockets went 2-1 vs the Blazers this season (with the home team winning each game) and with the Rockets 2-0 without T-Mac. T-Mac will not be playing this postseason and sadly, the Rockets are remarkably better without him playing. I feel bad for Houston, but Portland has been my team since before the season began, so I will stay the course, and still predict Portland to win a playoff series.
Pick: Portland in 7
3- Spurs vs. 6- Mavs - I can't believe these two teams ended up getting to face each other! I don't trust the Spurs without Ginobili and with Duncan ailing, though Duncan could be saving all of his energy for the playoffs. In the end, I suppose I have to choose the Spurs because their coaching is superb and because Tony Parker is going to have a monster series with Jason Kidd guarding him.
Pick: Spurs in 6
2- Nuggets - vs. 7- Hornets - This is an intriguing matchup. Billups vs. Chris Paul. However, Hornets C Tyson Chandler hasn't played since March 16. So... I have to choose the Nuggets. Which is something I vowed to not do earlier in the day before I knew this matchup would take place.
Pick: Nuggets in 6
Eastern Conference
1-Cleveland vs. 8-Detroit - As said after the Pistons acquired Iverson, I believe the Pistons have been on track for a 1st-round exit all year. I just had no idea that they could fall all the way into the 8-seed. Interestingly enough though, I had this 1st-round matchup predicted (but as a 4 vs. 5 matchup).
Pick: Cleveland in 5
4-Atlanta vs. 5-Miami - This should be a highly entertaining 1st round series. The Hawks have no depth, but they have a solid 6-man rotation in SF Marvin Williams, PF Josh Smith, C Al Horford, SG Joe Johnson, PG Mike Bibby, and 6th-man Flip Murray with big-man Zaza Pachulia providing additional support. Meanwhile, the Miami Heat may play more players, but they are dependent on Dwayne Wade. They've surrounded Wade with some new players in the last year (for those who don't know: an injured Jermaine O'Neal, Jamario Moon, rookie Michael Beasley, rookie PG Mario Chalmers, and 3-point specialist Daequan Cook). I really don't know who to pick, I just know that Atlanta played one meaningful game against Miami after the trading deadline, and Atlanta played fairly well.
Pick: Atlanta in 7
3-Orlando vs. 6- Philly - Orlando is dinged up but they should have enough to get past Philly which doesn't have any big men.
Pick: Orlando in 5
2-Boston vs. 7- Chicago- Here is where things get interesting! The Bulls have been on fire of late (aside from losing their season finale). The question of course is Kevin Garnett's health. I have to assume the Celtics will find a way to survive the 1st round.
Pick: Boston in 7
2nd round
1-Lakers vs. 4 or 5 - Portland - Yes! We get to see Aldridge, Oden, and Pryzbilla take on Odom, Bynum, and Gasol. And we get to see Brandon Roy take on Kobe! I would love to see the Blazers shock the world, but it's not going to happen in their 1st time in the playoffs. It certainly should be an entertaining series, especially because the Lakers haven't been able to win in Portland in a long time.
Pick: Lakers in 6
2-Nuggets vs. 3-Spurs - Yuck. I want to make it clear I would have picked the Rockets to the Conference finals if they were on this half of the bracket. I now have two teams here that I thought were going to lose in the 1st round. Yuck. Tony Parker will not be able to dominate Billups the way Parker will control Kidd in the 1st round. As a result...
Pick: Nuggets in 7
1-Cavs vs 4-Atlanta - I think this will be a mildlingly annoying series for the Cavs but in the end, the Cavs will have too much for the Hawks.
Pick: Cavs in 5
2-Boston vs. 3-Orlando - Here we go... a super-series! To be clear, I'm assuming that KG, Rashard Lewis, and Hedo Turkoglu all recover from injuries enough to be factors. It is believed that Lewis will play no matter what in the playoffs but Orlando isn't talking about Turkoglu (nor are they saying anything about the mysteriously sub-par performances of Dwight Howard). With all that aside, if you asked me 2 weeks ago who would win: I would have told you it was the Orlando Magic. However, it seems like a longer shot for the Magic to get all 3 guys suddenly healthy then it is for KG to be healthy.
Pick: Boston in 7
Conference Finals
1-Lakers vs. 2-Nuggets - This could be the Lakers' easiest series.
Pick: Lakers in 5
1-Cavs vs. 2-Boston - This matchup will be electric. The players all know each other and things have gotten rather chippy. There are 2 main reasons that the Cavs' offense is much improved over last season: 1) the addition of Mo Williams as another ball-handler alongside Delonte West and LeBron) and 2) the fact that Coach Mike Brown lets his assistant coach (John Kuester) call offensive plays. Seriously. No joke. There really were no plays last season or the year before that. The Celtics have been dinged up and do not have the same cohesiveness as last season. Please don't tell me that Eddie House's additional minutes make up for James Posey, who was an absolute assassin in the playoffs last season.
Pick: Cavs in 7
NBA Finals-
1-Lakers vs 1-Cavs - I picked the Cavs over the Lakers in my NBA preview and I am staying the course. For this to actually happen, the Cavs will have to find a way to box-out, play interior defense, and take down the Lakers. I am banking on the Cavs realizing that their only shot is to have LeBron on Odom (because LeBron is quick enough and big enough), and then use some combination of Varejao, Z, and Wallace on Bynum and Gasol. Some of you may be asking who will be guarding Kobe if LeBron is on Odom? Will, I think that if anyone other than LeBron guards Odom, Odom will end up shooting over 65% (see the last game they played - Odom went 13 for 19. In this game, LeBron stayed at SG due to injuries to West & Kinsey), so it's better to have someone other than LeBron guard Kobe, because only when Kobe gets hot does he even get over 50%. So, I then will have an undersized Delonte West guard Kobe for a lot of the time. I also would like to believe that the Cavs will unveil their secret defensive weapon in the NBA Finals... Tarence Kinsey! I'm hoping Kinsey can guard Kobe for 10 minutes each game, which will hopefully be enough for Delonte West to catch a breather.
Pick: Cavs in 7
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