NBA Offseason 2009: In Preparation for 2010

Here's my guide to the unpredictable 2009 NBA offseason. The reason I'm writing this after the Finals is that the draft is next week and free agency begins in two weeks. We will quickly see who has no intentions of competing this season and vice versa...

Notable Players From Teams That Are Near the Luxury Tax (high likelihood of being shopped and traded)
The following teams will be looking to move their high-priced players to get under the Luxury Tax. The luxury tax level in 2008-2009 was $71 million, but it may be dropping a few million this upcoming season. These teams are selected based off of my opinion of their team's chances for success and what little we know of the owner's penchant for spending extra. These teams are also good candidates for selling or trading their draft picks next week:

1) Charlotte - payroll of $56 million with only 11 under contract, this is an estimated number, as Felton and May need new contracts:
C Nazr Mohammed - $13 million, two years remaining; he hardly plays and has been completely ineffective the last few seasons. But he is 7 feet tall.
C DeSagna Diop - $26 million, 4 years remaining ($6 mill this year); he still is a leader in rebounds per 48 minutes. This is completely overpriced for a defender, but there are so few 7-footers around, that if money was no object, and I was in charge of the Cavaliers, I would seriously consider swapping Sasha for Diop, who could give 20 minutes on Dwight Howard (which is better than any of the minutes anyone on the Cavs can currently give).

2) Chicago - payroll of $62 million, with only 9 under contract:
PF Brad Miller - $12.2 million, one year remaining; he is old, but could be available
PG Kirk Hinrich - $27 million, 3 years remaining; has never really been the same the last few years; it's like he's 34 when he's only 28.

3) Golden State - payroll of $59 million, with only 10 under contract:
PG/SG Jamal Crawford - $19 million, 2 years remaining - I think this guy just breeds losing.
SF Corey Maggette - $40 million, 4 years remaining ($9 mill this year) - He's very athletic but he's also very moody.
SF/SG Stephen Jackson - $34 million, 4 years remaining (only $7.6 mill this year) - His shooting has been suspect of late, but he can still probably guard most other swingmen.
PF Ronny Turiaf - $12 million, 3 years remaining

4) Clippers- payroll of $56 mill, with only 10 under contract:
PF Zach Randolph - $33 million, 2 years remaining - He doesn't play defense and I pray the Cavs don't get him.
PG Baron Davis - $52 million, 4 years remaining ($12 this year) - The Clippers were all excited for getting Baron last year... and I'm sure they would jump at the chance to unload him this year.
C Chris Kaman - $33 million, 3 years remaining - Interesting case, where he is one year removed from a career season of 15.7 ppg, 2.8 blocks, 12.7 rebs. However, he's been injured a lot lately, so he's a big risk now.
C Marcus Camby - Required to list him. 1 year remaining at $7.6 million.

5) Milwaukee- Payroll of $60 mill, for only 9 players - Ramon Sessions and Charlie Villaneuva are free agents. Last year, they gave up Mo Williams. This year? Take your pick...
SG Michael Redd - $17 this year, $18 mill player option next year
SF Richard Jefferson - $29 mill, 2 years remaining
[plus PG Sessions and PF Villaneuva are free agents, so weird sign-and-trades could be involved]

6) New Orleans - They tried to move Tyson Chandler ($11 this year, $13 player option next year) at the trade deadline, but he failed his physical. I assume they will try again.
They also will probably try to move James Posey if I had to guess ($18, 3 years remaining)

7) Phoenix - Yes, Shaq at $20 mill is available. Jason Richardson ($27 mill, 2 years) and Barbosa ($21 mill, 3 years) are also probably available, not that anyone would want them.

8) Sacramento - It's public knowledge that the Maloofs are in financial straits, meaning that...
SG Kevin Martin - ($43 mill, 4 years; only $10 this year) - certainly available. Unclear if he's actually good or just posting big numbers on a bad team.

Notable Players that are Free Agents (I've ranked them by my own biases)
1) Orlando - SF Hedo Turkoglu - #1 free agent. Will command a lot of money.
2) Lakers - PF/SF Lamar Odom - good luck figuring out if he'll be consistent. No one, not even him, could tell you why.
3) Boston - PF - Glen Davis - should draw a lot of interest, but in my little understanding of the NBA, the Celtics can match any offer and go way over the cap because he has only played 2 seasons.
4) Houston - SF Ron Artest - If the Cavs are truly willing to do anything...
5) Lakers - SF/SG Trevor Ariza - I too couldn't believe this... he's only 24! He's a career 30% 3-point shooter who shot 32% this season... and then a sizzling 47% in the playoffs. That means he will probably make at least $6 million a year from someone.
6) NY - PG Nate Robinson - restricted FA, but is exciting to watch.
7) Philly - PG Andre Miller - but he's 32, and the draft has a thousand PGs this year. He probably won't be able to get too much as a result.
8) NY - F David Lee - most people probably have him higher, but I think he's just been posting monster numbers on a bad team.
9) Orlando - C Marcin Gortat - this could be a bargain for someone , given his size, and he played awesome against Dalembert in game 6 of the 1st round when Howard was suspended, as he helped the team to victory with 11 points, 15 rebs, and 4 steals.
10) Denver -PF - Chris Andersen - Supreme shot blocker and rebounder; not much of an offensive player though
11) Miami- PF Jamario Moon - Another solid defender, but will not be able to provide much offense.
12) PF - Leon Powe - Tore an ACL in May during the playoffs. Perhaps a January return? Problem is, Powe has a history of knee problems, so it is unclear what kind of money he will be getting or what he will be like when he returns this time.
13) Atlanta - PF/C - Zaza Pachulia - He is a pest but he does have size.

For those Cavalier fans... here are some scenarios as of now, assuming the Cavs go for broke:
The transactions all involve trading Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavolic, or even Zydrunas...

1) Money is no object; Character is no object -
Trade Sasha for DeSagana Diop ; work out a deal to have PF Charlie Villaneuva sign-and-traded for Ben Wallace; use $7 million in exemptions (mid-level and bi-annual) to sign either Ron Artest or Trevor Ariza.
2) Smaller names, but potential -
Use up to $7 million in exemptions to sign two of (C Gortat, PF Anderson, PF Moon); trade Ben Wallace for Richard Jefferson; trade Sasha for James Posey (from the Hornets)
3) Shaq-tastic -
Trade Sasha and Ben Wallace for Shaq; use up to $7 mill in exemptions for Trevor Ariza.
4) Trading Z (who is also an $11.5 mill expiring contract), Wallace, and Sasha! -
Trade Z for SG Kevin Martin (or for SF Gerald Wallace if the Bobcats don't start out well); Trade Ben Wallace for SF Richard Jefferson; Use up to $7 million in exemptions to sign two of (C Gortat, PF Anderson, PF Moon); trade Sasha for James Posey (from the Hornets).