Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Skynet Championship Series: Season Six

I can't believe it's the 6th season that I've been doing this...

Skynet is back! A wise machine, Agent Smith, once said in the Matrix: “Never send a Human to do a machine’s job.” These inspiring words ring true with the BCS. The time has now come to achieve the BCS purpose – by providing OBJECTIVE rankings. I realize this may be counter to my rooting interests, but it is the only fair way to determine two teams.

So, to be clear, here’s how I devise the standings each week:
1) I take the top 20 of the BCS standings.
2) I input each of the top 20's computer standings from each of 4 computer rankings (Sagarin, Anderson, Colley-Matrix, Wolfe; the other two aren't included because they input human rankings to start and are therefore biased).
3) I let excel calculate the standard deviation for each computer ranking distribution of the top 20. Then, Excel normalizes the distribution, and fits EACH computer ranking onto a 1-20 scale.
4) Finally, the normalized-computer averages are determined (i.e. if Florida is ranked 5.76, 2.55, 2.21, 5.77 in 4 of the polls, which is an average of 4.07, which equals their SCS ranking. This means that according to the polls, they are approximately the 4th-best team in the country).

Most underrated by the humans: Ok St (wow! everyone hates them, but the computer love them.); Houston (undefeated and a ridiculous 12th in the computers, but just 22nd and 20th in the human polls); Va. Tech, Auburn, Kansas St

Most overrated by the humans: Wisconsin, Stanford, Nebraska, W. Va., Michigan St

Of course, there is a long time until the end of the season though. And remember, these are not my rankings, they are the rankings of the only objective entity in the universe... Skynet!

2011 Skynet Rankings - Week of 10/19
2011
SCS BCS Sched Rnk Harris USA Today
1 OK St 1.07 4 8 6 6
2 Alabama 1.27 2 36 2 3
3 LSU 2.06 1 56 1 2
4 Oklahoma 2.75 3 20 3 1
5 Clemso 2.77 7 77 8 8
6 boise st 4.18 5 42 5 7
7 Kansas St 5.56 11 67 12 16
8 wisconsin 10.62 6 129 4 4
9 Arkansas 11.55 9 61 10 10
10 Stanford 11.61 8 112 7 5
11 Va tech 12.76 12 37 16 14
12 Houston 13.57 19 125 22 20
13 So. Car 13.86 14 59 13 12
14 Oregon 14.48 10 41 9 8
15 Nebraska 14.76 13 40 11 11
16 Auburn 15.24 20 24 21 23
17 Michigan 15.56 18 52 17 17
18 Texas A&M 16.10 17 2 19 18
19 W. Va. 17.32 15 78 14 14
20 Mich St. 18.18 16 88 15 13

No comments: