One of the most exciting divisions in baseball this year ought to be the AL Central. There isn't a dominant team, nor is there a serious title contender coming out of this division. But the Twins, Indians, White Sox and Tigers will spend a lot of time beating the crap out of each other, and that ought to be a lot of fun for the rest of us to watch. Here's a preview, in reverse predicted order of finish:
5. Kansas City - this is the only team in the Central that we know isn't going to be anywhere close to competitive. Still reeling from the loss of Carlos Beltran and the team's failure to build on their unexpected 83-win season in 2003, Kansas City enters the 2005 campaign with little talent and even less hope. Poor Mike Sweeney is stuck trying to anchor this lineup, surrounded by cast-offs Terrence Long and Matt Stairs and the never-quite-impressive Ken Harvey. The team has a few top prospects coming up soon: Mark Teahen is a young stud at 3B who may appear in 2005, and John Buck is expected to settle in as the team's catcher for opening day. But they're not enough to bring sunshine to KC this season. Top starters include (I'm not making this up) Zack Greinke, Jose Lima, Runelvys Hernandez, and Jimmy Gobble. Affeldt's closing again. Yuck.
4. Detroit - the Tigers are a vastly improved team, and could challenge for the Central Division crown...if they can find some starting pitching. However much they overpaid for Magglio Ordonez, Detroit could find itself with a real pearl if Mags' knees hold up. This lineup features Pudge Rodriguez, Ordonez, Dmitri Young, Rondell White, and Carlos Guillen in the heart of the batting order, which can at least hold its own against most everyone else in the division. With Alex Sanchez at the top of the order, look for Detroit to score a decent amount of runs - again, if Ordonez can play. As for pitching, the arrival of Troy Percival gives Detroit a bona fide closer who, while no longer among the bullpen elite, ought to provide great stability for the rest of the relief corps. Rumors abound regarding a trade of Ugueth Urbina, but if I'm Detroit, I keep him, along with Kyle Farnsworth and Franklyn German - unless someone's dangling a decent starter in exchange for Ugie. Detroit's rotation will feature Jason Johnson, Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, and Nathan Robertson, none of whom strike fear in any major league hitter. Ultimately, even in the brightest light, I don't think the Tigers have the pitching to seriously contend, but they will not be a fun team to face.
3. Chicago (I'll try to be objective here - I'm a Cubs fan and I hate the White Sox) - for some reason, the Chicago press embraced the Carlos Lee deal and the Sox' efforts to turn their squad into a faster, smaller team. I understand the desire to change up the team's style - but dealing El Caballo seems to me to have been a bad mistake. Lee was Chicago's best and most consistent hitter over the last few years, and a rising star in his own right. Without him and Ordonez, the Sox will rely heavily on Paul Konerko, who hit 41 homers in 2004, and Big Frank Thomas, who'll be late to Arizona as he recovers from ankle surgery. Beyond those two, the Sox need big contributions from 3B Joe Crede, who's yet to live up to his hype, OF Aaron Rowand, who could be a darkhorse for you fantasy baseballers out there, and Japanese import 2B Tadahito Iguchi. As for the rotation, the Sox think they've got one of the best in baseball - and they're nuts. Mark Buerhle's a workhorse and legitimately one of the better, more consistent pitchers in the game. After that, though, they're relying on Freddy Garcia, far removed from his 18-win season with Seattle in 2001, El Duque, Jose Contreras, and Jon Garland. I'm not buying into it; I don't think these five are bad, but they're far from automatic. As for the 'pen, Shingo Takatsu and Luis Vizcaino should be solid, and Damaso Marte should contribute as well. I really like the Dustin Hermanson signing; he strikes me as a Terry Mulholland type, versatile enough to start or relieve as the team needs him. The Sox ought to finish a little above .500, but I don't see them with enough energy, talent or momentum to overtake...
2. Cleveland - I'm very tempted to pick the Tribe to win this division, and if it weren't for Minnesota's amazing ability to win against all odds, I'd go with Cleveland. This team is below the radar for many analysts, and that's a mistake Eric Wedge and Co. will take advantage of. Let's start with the rotation: CC Sabathia, Jake Westbrook and Kevin Millwood should bring at least 40-45 wins between them, and then a promising Cliff Lee checks in at #4. It's the best rotation in the division and competitive with most other AL teams. The lineup features a number of young and talented hitters that can really mash: Travis Hafner, Ben Broussard, Victor Martinez, Aaron Boone and Jody Gerut will provide an excellent start and should give the starters a nice cushion to work with. The bullpen, anchored by Bob Wickman, also features David Riske, Arthur Rhodes and Bobby Howry as set-up men, giving the Indians a very reliable squad to close out games. I really like this team, and if they can start strong and maybe add a bat or an arm in mid-season, Cleveland could surprise many and find themselves playing in October.
1. Minnesota - one day, someone will explain how the Twins, year in and year out, play some of the best baseball around. They lose guys left and right, and they keep coming back. On paper, they're not as good as Cleveland, and I dare you to bet against them. Johan Santana is a true ace and maybe the best pitcher in baseball, and he's why NOBODY wants to see this team in a five-game opening round playoff series. Brad Radke's back, along with Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva, and if Joe Mays is healthy, the Twins can throw as well as anyone. The bullpen, featuring Joe Nathan, J.C. Romero, Grant Balfour and Juan Rincon, might be the best in the game. The lineup has some question marks, especially after the departures of Cristian Guzman and Corey Koskie - but the Twins should find a way to hit regardless. Peter Gammons said that if Joe Mauer'd been healthy for the playoffs, the Twins would have beat the Yanks in the ALDS last year - and now Mauer's back behind the plate. Throw in a possible 40 home runs from 1B Justin Morneau, solid play from Torii Hunter and Shannon Stewart, and a full season of Michael Cuddyer's bat, and there's not too much reason for concern. Most importantly, this team has shown its ability to persevere and to find ways to win, and I expect the Twins to be back for this year's playoffs.
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3 comments:
Thanks Hart for the expert analysis. I was suprised you did not rate the various stadiums bathroom facilities but for your first time you did great.
Oveall solid analysis. I agree with most of what's here.
However, I must take issue with one thing in this posting. My issue is with Peter Gammons, that idiot overrated reporter. The Yanks were winning that series whether or not Joe Mauer (total career ML at-bats: 107; total career post-season at-bats: 0) played or not. I can't believe anyone in their right mind thought that Joe Mauer, a rookie, would be the "X-Factor" in a series where the Yanks roughed up the Twins #3 starter Silva in Game 3 and then beat the AL Cy Young winner Johan Santana in Game 4. Many people did predict the Twins to win their ALDS matchup against the Yanks but I'd bet money that NO ONE thought so because Mauer might have played. Give me a break!
As much as Gammons may like to believe that a) he knows something about baseball and b) that he can be objective about the Yankees, he goes out and routinely puts his foot in his mouth. Jesus Christ, I am shocked that I'd never heard that before. If I had, I'd have ranted about it back in October. The Yanks were flawed last year but they weren't losing to the f-ing Twins, no matter what ESPN's "experts" thought.
How come no one's talking about Juan Gonzalez? I hear he might be on the Indians team, maybe even in Cleveland.
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