Five Questions: Pitchers and Catchers

Spring begins this week as pitchers and catchers report to major league baseball camps in Florida and Arizona. Before Back Seat Drivers provides its 2006 division-by-division analysis, coming in March, I'll post a short series on things to watch - position-by-position - in February.

1. Will Burnett and Ryan Be Enough?: Toronto was the loudest team since October, adding sluggers Troy Glaus and Lyle Overbay, starter AJ Burnett, and closer BJ Ryan. Glaus and Overbay are good, veteran additions to a team that needs stable bats in the middle of the lineup. But Toronto can only send either NY or Boston home for the postseason if their pitching comes through. Everybody knew that Roy Halladay, as good as he is, wasn't enough, and young talent like Gustavo Chacin is promising but also not enough to overcome the Twin Towers of the AL East. But Burnett and Ryan can change everything in the division, especially because the Yanks and BoSox have obvious holes of their own. If Burnett pitches the way everyone thinks he can, and Ryan builds on his excellent 2005 season with the Orioles, we could see a changing of the guard, at least for one year, in what's been baseball's biggest foregone conclusion for years.

2. Will Kerry Wood Ever Be Healthy and Good?: There might not be any limb that can change the fortunes of so many teams more than Kerry Wood's right arm. When he's good - he's very, very good. The problem, though, as has been discussed here and all over the sports world, is that Wood just has not been healthy enough to sustain anything close to a full season of what he's capable of. If Wood's arm heals quickly, and he can start, the Cubs' top three of Zambrano, Prior and Wood is easily the best in baseball. A healthy Wood makes the Cubs the favorite in a NL Central weakened by St. Louis' inability and/or refusal to do anything important in the offseason, and maybe the Cubs streak deep into October if other things click into place. If Wood can't go, the Cubs probably can't overcome their other deficiencies, and the NL becomes even more of a toss-up.

3. Where's Roger?: The greatest pitcher in decades still doesn't have a home. We don't even know if Roger Clemens is going to play again. I'm betting against his retirement - but that doesn't really answer the most critical question. Clemens still has the ability to change everything; Houston doesn't sniff the Series in '05 without him. His agent said yesterday that Clemens is deciding between retirement, the Rangers, the Red Sox, the Yankees, and a return to the Astros (which can't come until May). Everything I said about the AL East above is different if Roger goes to Boston or New York. Everything I said about the NL Central is different if he goes back to Houston. Even Texas has a chance if he goes there. Clemens' 2006 plans are that important.

4. How Good, or Bad, is the Piazza Effect?: Most everyone agrees that the Padres were awfully dumb in dealing away All-Star second baseman Mark Loretta for backup backstop Doug Mirabelli. Then they got dumber - maybe - in signing future Hall-of-Famer Mike Piazza to a one-year, $2 million deal. Piazza is nothing close to the player he once was, and is not expected by the experts to show any kind of resurgence. But he's one of the big questions more because of his impact on San Diego - or, perhaps, the cost to the Padres in replacing one of the better second baseman and top-of-the-order hitters in Loretta with the aging Piazza. That this team might miss a chance to improve on their promising 2005 campaign as a result will stain both the front office and Piazza himself.

5. Is Paul Byrd The Answer?: Ok, the answer to that question is almost certainly "no." But the Indians desperately need Byrd to step it up and do his best to add the veteran presence in their rotation that was lost with Kevin Millwood's departure. Cleveland has a young, exciting, and extraordinarily talented team. The Tribe's biggest problem is that the World Series champions live in their division, and the White Sox might have gotten better. There's enough in Cleveland in Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Jhonny Peralta, Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee, and C.C. Sabathia to give the team a real shot at a division title. If Byrd helps Indians fans forget Millwood, that could send Cleveland into the Series.