MVC Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis

Usually, there a number of mid-majors from different conferences that are worth following. As Mighty pointed out in his column last week, the Missouri Valley Conference (MVC) is in line to get a whopping 5 bids to the dance this year. It seems unprecedented for a non-power conference (not the ACC, Big 10, Big East, Big 12, SEC, PAC-10) to get this many bids. But, as pointed out in an ESPN article last week, the Atlantic 10 Conference got 5 teams in back in the 1997 and 1998 Tournaments. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=lunardi_joe&id=2337316

I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at how those teams did. In 1997, St. Joe’s made the Sweet 16 (as a 4-seed), and 2 other teams won in the first round (as a 7 and a 10). St. Joe’s not only made the Sweet 16, but won the regular season and conference tournaments. In 1998, 4 of the teams lost in the first round and Rhode Island, went to the Final 8 (as an 8-seed, while a 6, a 7, and another 7 all lost). The two teams that made the finals of the A-10 Conference Tournament, in an extremely competive year, both got bounced in the first round of the tourney.

This limited amount of research demonstrates one thing – at least one of the MVC teams are going to reach the Sweet 16. Obviously, a large factor for determining which team makes it will depend on the matchups. Seeing as I know nothing about the MVC (and I’m guessing no one else does either), I thought it would be helpful if I gathered some random information (obviously, not an exhaustive look) on the 6 likely teams to receive consideration from the conference.

The Sagarin ratings come from the following link, which is updated each day, which I like to use more than the RPI rating. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkc0506.htm . The Missouri Valley Conference completed their regular season on 2/25, and their tournament starts on 3/2. (I have no idea why they play so early, but they get a solid 10 days off before the tournament. They basically play their tournament when all of the real crappy conferences are playing).

Wichita State, Sagarin Rating #31, 1st in conference at 14-4,
Non-conference wins: Providence, Miami-OH;
Non-conference losses: Illinois, Mich. St., George Mason ;
3P% - 36.5%, Reb. Margin = +5.8 --
No real go-to player, but 2 starters each shoot over 42% from 3-point land.

Southern Illinois, Sag #52, 2nd in conference at 12-6,
Non-conference wins: Kent St.,
Non-conference losses: Monmouth, Alaska-Anchorage, Louisiana Tech;
3P% - 34.2%, Reb. Margin = +0.2 –
Strangely enough, they lost to some terrible teams out of the conference, yet performed well inside the conference. They seem to create a lot of steals, yet also turnover the ball just as much. Their 2nd half surge could be attributed to the fact that their nine-man rotation consists of SIX freshmen, and THREE sophomores. According to an SI article, they play man-to-man exclusively.

Missouri State, Sag #21, 3rd in conference at 12-6,
Non-conference wins: Wisc-Milwaukee;
Non-conference losses: Arkansas ;
3P% - 38.7%, Reb. Margin = +2.8 –
Relies on one man, named Blake Ahearn, who shoots almost 40% from 3-point land, and averages 18 ppg. Strangely enough, the next 6 scorers all average between 7 and 9 points.

Creighton, Sag #41, 4th in conference at 12-6,
Non-conference wins: George Mason, Xavier, Fresno St. ;
Non-conference losses: Depaul, Chatanooga;
3P% - 36.7%, Reb. Margin = -0.4 –
Not a lot of size. Plays more defense than most. Their best player was lost to injury for the season back in January.

Bradley, Sag #42, 5th in conference at 11-7,
Non-conference wins: Depaul ;
Non-conference losses: Loyola-Chicago, Butler, ;
3P% - 35.0%, Reb. Margin = +4.3 –
Swept Northern Iowa. I don’t know what that means anymore, considering the conference schedule ended up being a constant beating between these 6 teams. Has a 7 foot center who blocks a ton of shots.

Northern Iowa, Sag #34, 6th in conference at 11-7,
Non-conference wins: Iowa, LSU, Bucknell;
Non-conference losses: Iowa St;
3P% - 34.8%, Reb. Margin = +1.3 --
Ended up losing their last 4 conference games; was ranked for portions of the season, but it really doesn’t mean anything, as evidenced by all of the games they lost at the end of the season. Ben Jacobson’s stats really aren’t as great as I expected (14.3ppg, but a putrid 39% from the field, and only 33% from 3-point land). However, any team that can beat Iowa, LSU, and Bucknell must be considered dangerous.

Quick Thoughts:
Without being able to find any information via a Google search on what kinds of defenses the teams play, or how their PGs perform, it seems to me that Missouri State may be a team to watch, because they have a dominant player to rely on, and no one even seems to even talk about them. If Northern Iowa doesn’t get their act together in the conference tournament, it would be hard for me to pick them to go far considering that they are in such a large losing streak right now. Interestingly, Missouri St. will be playing Northern Iowa on Friday at 8:30PM. That is the game to watch! Southern Illinois’s out of conference losses are so terrible that I don’t feel comfortable at all picking them to do much, even if they get in.