Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Creating a Tournament Bracket

So, most of our brackets are already decimated. Those who are lucky enough to have all four Final Four teams remaining in play should be quite thrilled to be where we are. Most of us measure our success against our friends and against the other ESPN.com users, but here I propose a simpler comparison:

I created about 6 brackets this year. Several of the brackets were absurd - lottery-ticket attempts to win the $10,000 if something crazy happens. In order to pursue the $10,000, you have to choose some random team to go really far into the tournament. On the off-chance you pick a team like George Mason to advance, and they actually advance, you're sitting on a winning lottery ticket. Several years ago, when George Mason advanced to the Final Four only 4 people had picked the four Final Four teams (and one of them thought they were picking GW, not George Mason!) Several of the brackets I created were attempts to win among my group of friends - I picked them as my not-so-expert analysis dictated. And last, for the first time ever, I created a bracket with absolutely no upsets - a control - which will gauge if I (or anyone else) knows anything about college basketball - or at least - more than the selection committee.

While we're only at the Sweet 16, I'd like to note that the control bracket - with no upsets - is in the 93rd percentile of all ESPN.com brackets. My next best bracket is in the 86th percentile. I'll keep you updated as we advance through the tournament. But as of now, the selection committee is kicking most of our asses. So, next time you gauge the success of your bracket - don't just compare it to your retarded friends' brackets - but compare it to what would have happened if you simply did not think at all, and chose the lower number each time until you get to the Final Four. This way, you can see how unproductive all the thought you put into your bracket truly is.

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