PAC-10 - 2008 Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis

Here it goes – my final breakdown… the PAC-10 is the best conference in the land (at least according to Sagarin)…

UCLA, Sag #3, 1st in conference at 16-2, 28-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Mich. St., Stanford (twice), Wash St (twice), USC (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Texas, USC, Wasington (that’s it)
3P% - 34.2%, Reb. Margin = +9.2 , FT 74.5%, FG 48.2%, Opp. FG 42.7% –
Obviously a 1-seed, the only question is “how far will they go?” Freshman Kevin Love is a beast (in the college game) and gets 17.4 ppg (on 57% FG) and 10.9 reb. They have a plethora of big men (Mbah a Moute, Aboya, Mata) compared to most schools, but the guards are the real question. How good are Collison (14.6ppg, 50% 3p, 4 assists, 2TO) and Shipp (13.2 ppg) and Westbrook (12.8 ppg, 49%FG, 4.4 assist )???

Stanford, Sag #12, 2nd in conference at 13-5, 24-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Colorado?, Texas Tech? (they really didn’t play anyone out of conference); USC, Wash St (twice), Arizona (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Siena!, Oregon, Arizona St.
3P% - 36.4%, Reb. Margin = +8.0 , FT 69.2%, FG 44.9%, Opp. FG 39.5% –
It’s kind of strange to have such a big team that outrebounds opponents, yet they still have a poor field goal percentage. This team is one of the most intriguing in my mind. They have 7-foot twins for the second time in school history (remember the Collins brothers? – Jason and Jarron – they still play in the NBA!) This time – Stanford has Brook Lopez and Robin Lopez. Fittingly, Robin is the sidekick. I like to call Brook Lopez, “Lottery Lopez” because that’s where he’s going after this season I assume (7-footer who has 18.9 ppg, 8.2 reb, 2.2 blocks). Robin Lopez is really a “Poor Man’s Lopez” (9.9ppg, 5.6 reb, 2.2 blocks). Lottery Lopez actually has some quickness, at least in comparison to Poor Man’s Lopez. Anyways, what makes this team so damn intriguing is:
1) two 7-footers;
2) the revenge factor since they got obliterated by Louisville last year in the 1st round;
3) The fact that one of their main guys in the rotation has a last name of “Finger” meaning that the amount of insane catch phrases are endless. I’m not sure what the catch-phrase should be, I’m just saying it’s interesting.

Washington St., Sag #13, 3rd in conference at 11-7, 23-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Baylor, Gonzaga, USC (twice),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Cal, UCLA (twice), Standord (twice), Arizona (twice)
3P% - 37.1%, Reb. Margin = +0.4 , FT 73.8%, FG 47.8%, Opp. FG 41.7% –
A year later, it’s kind of ironic how they were a “darkhorse” 3-seed who got “upset” by a 6-seeded Vanderbilt team that no one knew anything about. Now, Vanderbilt has been ranked all season, and Washington St became overmatched during the conference season to become a much lower seed than last season. This is a small team, led by guard Derrick Low (13.9ppg, 39% 3pointers) who likes to shoot it. To be honest, I don’t see any reason why we should expect a sweet 16 from this team this year either, unless they somehow avoid any big men.

USC, Sag #21, 3rd in conference at 11-7, 20-10,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Miami(OH), San Diego, So. Illinois, Oklahoma, UCLA (split), Stanford (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Mercer!, Kansas, Memphis, Wash St (twice)
3P% - 38.9%, Reb. Margin = +0.1 , FT 68.3%, FG 48.5%, Opp. FG 39.3% –
I did a double-take when I saw that USC, NOT UCLA, is leading the conference in opponents’ field goal percentage. Unfortunately for USC, they need that just to survive because they get completely outrebounded against any of the bigger teams. OJ Mayo leads the way (20.9ppg, 4.7 reb, 3.6TO, 41%3pointers), but he hasn’t been as dominating as everyone expected. Taj Gibson mixes it up down low (11ppg, 7.7reb, 2.5 blocks, 59%FG on limited shooting)

Arizona St., Sag #41, 5th in conference at 9-9, 19-11
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Xavier, Stanford, USC,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Illinois, Nebraska, Washington, Cal, Oregon
3P% - 36.1%, Reb. Margin = -0.1 , FT 74.0%, FG 46.9%, Opp. FG 41.2% –
They lost 7 of 9 in the middle of PAC-10 season, to put them squarely on the bubble (and probably still need a couple wins in the tourney). They beat good teams, they lose to bad teams, it’s really quite an unpredictable team. They don’t rebound well, but they have 5 different guys who regularly shoot 3s, just not consistently! They are led by James Harden (17.7ppg, 5 reb, 42% 3pointers)

Oregon, Sag #36, 5th in conference at 9-9, 18-12
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: W. Mich, Kansas St, Stanford (split), Arizona (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: St. Mary’s, Nebraska, Oakland, Washington, UCLA (twice), USC (twice)
3P% - 40.1%, Reb. Margin = +1.9 , FT 68.9%, FG 48.4%, Opp. FG 44.1% –
Just like last season, these guys don’t play much defense. Unlike last season, they don’t have PG Aaron Brooks. Like last season, these guys have lots of 3-point shooters, and unlike Arizona St, they tend to hit their shots. What’s most concerning about this team is that they really lost to all the teams they were supposed to, except for Stanford.

Arizona, Sag #29, 7th in conference at 8-10, 18-13
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Texas A&M, Wash St (twice), USC (split), Houston
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Virginia, Kansas, Memphis, Oregon (twice), Arizona St (twice)
3P% - 38.5%, Reb. Margin = -1.2 , FT 74.0%, FG 48.0%, Opp. FG 44.3% –
Lute Olson is on a leave of absence. They have talented guards/swingmen (PG Bayless – 20.3ppg, 4.2 assist, 40% 3pointers; SF Chase Budinger 17.2ppg, 5.4 reb, 37% 3pointers), but they get outrebounded often. And they don’t really play much defense. I watched them play against UCLA and without any big men, it was an ugly slaughter. Arizona played a brutal schedule, but really didn’t pick up any good out of conference wins. They’ve lost 7 of their last 10, and a quick exit from the tourney could be disastrous, with the committee putting such emphasis on “recent play”.