Tournament Openning Round Thoughts

After 2 (well technically 3) rounds of tournament play we are left with 16 teams. Here are my deep (well not so deep) thoughts

1. To Call or Not Call - In the round of 32 there were a number of games were ref calls (Butler -Pitt) and non-calls (Arizona-Texas) shaped the outcomes. Personally I prefer the ref swallow his whistle under 5 seconds unless it's horribly obvious. The bigger issue I think is the inconsistency. Whatever the standard is, it should be communicated pretty clearly what the standard is....and stick with it.
2. Conferences - I find it fascinating the difference between conference pride and national fascination for college football and college basketball. Yes, there's a few notes and trash talk (you suck Big East) but it's nowhere near the level of solidarity or press fawning that bowl season has.

3. Favorites - I tend to avoid saying anyone is really a favorite as one bad game, one injury, one fluke and a school chances disappears. So how a team looks really is inconsequential..generally. tOSU wins were impressive but competition gets much tougher. Duke barely escaped the Wolverines but the only thing significant about that is Kyrie Irving doesn't exactly look himself...yet. Meanwhile KU kept rolling. Those seem to be the favorites but anything is possible.

4. Overall Quality - After all the complaints about the lack of quality teams I've generally been very happy with the tournament. Some very good teams, some fun upsets, and some great individual performances. Worrying that the tournament won't be great is much ado about nothing....

5. Wonderwoman (Adrian Palinki) will be starring on NBC this Fall....Great idea but it's on NBC so it'll fail. If only one could combine the tournament's awesomeness with wonderwoman... Come on CBS I'm looking to you...

Submit Your Brackets

Shannon Marie says "remember to submit your brackets". Unless you were assigned to a play in game , in which case you should have submitted your brackets last week.

The Idiocy of the Selection Committee

Disclaimer: whereas 10 years ago I could name 2 or 3 starters on most every Tourney team, this year I can't even name one player on two of the #1 seeds.

But I can do math, and I'm not stupid - which apparently disqualifies me from being a member of the NCAA's Selection Committee. Explain this to me: why are the four play-in games for two #16 seeds, a #12, and an #11? What is the logic behind that?

As I see it, there's only two ways to handle a 68-team field: all of the play-in games must either be for #16 seeds, representing the 8 worst teams of the field, or for whatever seed number represents the 8 worst at-large entrants (i.e. the last 8 in). It would be most logical to have the 8 worst auto qualifiers - but I could understand the Committee not wanting to totally crap on those conferences by making them earn the right to get slaughtered by Duke, so I could understand having a play-in for the UABs and Clemsons of the world to fight it out for a #12 seed.

But what makes ZERO sense is to have the play-ins staggered as in this year's bracket. Why is it that SE #11 seed Gonzaga only has to win 6 times to win the title, but in the Southwest, USC or VCU must win a 7th game - and they're #11 seeds, too?!?! Consider that in '06, George Mason made it to the Final 4 as an #11...so we can't say "Oh, it doesn't matter, these teams will lose anyway." It does matter; these at-large teams and these #11/#12 seeds are fully capable of making a run into the Sweet 16 or farther. The inequity in allowing three #11 and #12 seeds a pass into the true first round, while forcing 4 other teams to play an extra game as the same seed number, is absolutely illogical and indefensible.

March Madness: First Thoughts

First thoughts on March Madness....

1. East and West Picking Difficulties - For very different reasons the East and West regions should be very hard to pick. The East is my region of death...tough match-up after tough match-up. The West on the other hand, is Duke and big question marks...Yeesh no idea.

2. Star Power - There's always some player or players that emerge in the tournament. However usually they are semi-known going into the tournament. Star power is pretty dim. Sure there's some stars: Kembya, Nolan, Jared, and Jimmer...but relative to previous years it seems like the star power is a little low.

3. Tourney Snubs - No matter how much they expand the tournament there will always be snubs. So frankly it's a much ado about nothing. If push comes to shove I'd have yanked USC or VCU and put in Colorado but I can't get all worked up. Well maybe a little. You suck tourney selection committee!

Some Tourney Advice
4. Use Random Facts - Teams that were unranked but ended the season ranked in the top 10 are 0-41 in making the final four.

5. Use German Animals - Paul the October and Heidi the Cross Eyed Possum have proven that beyond a shadow of a doubt random German animals are good at picking things. Purchase one before your brackets are due.

6. Submit Your Bracket - Yes the annual Back Seat Driver brackets is out. Please submit your bracket. If any of your friends, significant others, children (Hitman we're looking at you) , pets (Laz looking at you), etc. want in - let me know and I will add them to the list.

March Madness 2011 - Instaneous Analysis

In 2009, I crunched a lot of numbers before the Madness begins, pertaining to the performance of power-conference teams that win or are runner-ups in their conference tournaments.

Favorite team based on profiles -
In 2007, I started doing profiles of the top conferences before the tourney begins.

In 2007, I adopted Maryland as my favorite statistical profile... and they lost in the 2nd round.
In 2008, I adopted Notre Dame as my favorite statistical profile... and they lost in the 2nd round.
In 2009, I adopted BYU (lost in 1st round) and West Virginia (lost in 1st round).
In 2010, I adopted Baylor, and they did make the elite 8 (finally, did something right!)
This year? I'm adopting Washington and Belmont. Yes, Sports Illustrated already wrote two (yes, TWO!) articles adopting Belmont as a Cinderella before the tourney began... so they will be my darkhorse profile. Washington will be my more serious profile.

Best 1st round matchup -
Butler vs. Old Dominion - These are the two mid-majors I was most excited to see the tournament... so of course they are playing each other... then they have to play Pitt in the next round.
Wisconsin vs. Belmont - Wisconsin's been in some kind of swoon... and now they have to deal with Belmont who shoots great 3s, has a great backcourt, and uses 11 players to run as much as possible.

Most anticipated 2nd round matchup -
So far, only 3 of my 8 anticipated matchups have happened.
In 2010, my anticipated matchup was Georgetown vs. Tennessee. It didn't happen because the Ohio Bobcats, seeded 14th, absolutely demolished Georgetown in the 1st round.
In 2009, my anticipated matchups were Syracuse vs. Arizona State (which did happen), and West Virginia vs. Kansas (which didn't happen, because 11-seeded Dayton knocked out West Virginia).
In 2008, my anticipated matchups included two: Indiana vs UNC (where Indiana lost badly in the 1st round to Arkansas) and Notre Dame and Washington State (which actually did happen).
In 2007 my “anticipated” matchup actually happened [Boston College vs. former Big East rival Georgetown], but 2007’s 2nd round matchups were relatively weak.
In 2006, my matchup [Mich. St. vs. UNC] never happened as George Mason wiped out Mich. St. then UNC.
In 2005, I didn’t specifically anoint one matchup, but I alluded to the Kansas-Wisconsin game, but Bucknell took out Kansas in the 1st round to prevent that from happening.

This year, I'm going with 5-Arizona vs. 4-Texas. Texas was supposed to be a 2-seed everyone thought, but they've been punished severely down into the 4-spot. This should be a great game though, assuming both teams make it there.

Darkhorse - Temple! - One of these teams has to go to the Elite 8: Cincy/Missouri/UConn/Temple/Penn St/SD state. If you would have told me that a week ago, I would have laughed. So... I will go with Temple.

Region of Death- East Region (Ohio State's). Just brutal. George Mason vs. Villanova in the 1st round... and both were ranked last week, but one has to win then play Ohio State afterwards. We could have Ohio State, Kentucky, Syracuse, and UNC all in the sweet 16... plus we still have possible cinderalls in Xavier (who has made the Sweet 16 for the last three years, no joke), and Washington, who's computer profile is amazing (as said above).

Cinderella Final 4 Team - I'm historically bad at this... (2010 - Baylor (lost in Elite 8); 2009 - W. Virginia - lost in 1st; 2008 - USC - lost in 1st; 2007 - Maryland - lost in 2nd; 2006 - UCLA - 2-seed, made Final 4; 2005 - Utah - 6-seed, made Sweet 16).
This year, I'm going with: 4-seed Kentucky... if Ohio State were to fall, this would be a team to pick as a Cinderella.

Now, on to the applicable rules of engagement!
Rule #1: All (4) 1-seeds will NOT make Final4 (except in 2008)-
Sadly, Ohio State has the most hoops to jump through, as stated above. However, the next one-seed that looks like they could hit some trouble would be Pitt. They will have tough games in their 8-9 (Butler-Old Dominion) and they could face any of Kansas St, Utah St, Wisconsin, or Belmont who have all had fantactic seasons. This is before the elite 8 even occurs, so it could be troublesome.

Rule#4: A 12-seed always beats a 5 (except in 2000 and 2007)-
West Virginia is susceptible... they get the winner of UAB/Clemson. The UAB/Clemson winner should be excited (and they should be excited because neither of these teams were probably going to even make the tourney!). Kansas State vs. Utah State could also be really interesting.

Rule#6: There always is one conference w/ multiple teams in the final4 (except in 2007, 2008, and 2010) – It hasn't happened much lately, but here are some options:

Ohio St, Duke, Purdue, Pitt (Big 10)
UNC, Duke, Kansas, Pitt (ACC)
Syracuse, Texas, Notre Dame, Pitt (Big East)
Kentucky, Texas, Kansas, Pitt (Big 12)

Rule#9: If you win your power conference tourney and you are NOT a top-10 team, you won't do well in the NCAA tourney:

In 2005, one team lost in the 1st round, the other in the 2nd round
In 2006, all 3 that qualified got bounced in the 1st round!
In 2007, one team qualified [Oregon], but they made the elite 8. I still say Oregon had an easy draw though.
In 2008, Pitt (Big East) and Georgia (SEC) are the only teams that qualified. Georgia only had a 14-seed and got bounced by Xavier. Pitt got a 4-seed and was upset by Michigan State in the 2nd round.
In 2009, 4 teams qualified: Purdue (sweet 16), Missouri (elite 8), USC (2nd round), and Miss St. (1st round loser as 13-seed).
In 2010, one team qualified (Washington)... and they went on a sweet 16 run as an 11-seed.

That's a total of 12 teams qualified... and only 4 made it to the sweet 16 or further, with 5 losing in the 1st round. When I crunched the numbers for the years going all the way back to 1992 (for those conferences that had tournaments): 30 teams qualified, 1 won the championship (11th-ranked Florida in 2006), 1 went to the Final 4 (Miss. St in 1996 in a major surprise). 4 made it to to the sweet 16 or Elite 8, with TWELVE losing in the 1st round (though 5 of those were unranked conference tournament winners).

This year, we have these teams qualifying as conference tournament winners: Kentucky (SEC), Washington (PAC-10), UConn (Big East).

Rule #10: The favorite almost NEVER survives the “Region of Death” (UNC in 1998, UNC in 2005, Duke in 2004 made the Final 4, UNC in 2008 made the Final 4), and certainly will never win the whole tournament.
I went back through 1997 and tried to determine what my “region of death” was (a subjective assessment indeed). Out of the years I analyzed, only 4 #1 seeds made it through, and only 1 won the whole damn thing (UNC – 2005). Funny, because this year, Ohio State has drawn the "region of death"... but they could be the second team to possibly pull it off.

March Madness 2010 - Instaneous Analysis

Last year, I crunched a lot of numbers before the Madness begins, pertaining to the performance of power-conference teams that win or are runner-ups in their conference tournaments.

Favorite team based on profiles -
In 2007, I started doing profiles of the top conferences before the tourney begins.

In 2007, I adopted Maryland as my favorite statistical profile... and they lost in the 2nd round.
In 2008, I adopted Notre Dame as my favorite statistical profile... and they lost in the 2nd round.
In 2009, I adopted BYU (lost in 1st round) and West Virginia (lost in 1st round).
So... this year? I'm adopting Baylor. I hope it's not a death sentence! But, they have a manageable draw at least.

Best 1st round matchup -
Oklahoma State vs. Georgia Tech - The NBA scouts will be at this game for sure with Ok State's James Anderson (projected #20) and G-Tech's Derrick Favors (projected #4 pick) and Gani Lawal (projected #29). The NBA scouts will love to stick around for the 2nd round game against Ohio State and Evan Turner (projected #2 pick).

Most anticipated 2nd round matchup -
So far, only 3 of my 7 anticipated matchups have happened.
In 2009, my anticipated matchups were Syracuse vs. Arizona State (which did happen), and West Virginia vs. Kansas (which didn't happen, because 11-seeded Dayton knocked out West Virginia).
In 2008, my anticipated matchups included two: Indiana vs UNC (where Indiana lost badly in the 1st round to Arkansas) and Notre Dame and Washington State (which actually did happen).
In 2007 my “anticipated” matchup actually happened [Boston College vs. former Big East rival Georgetown], but 2007’s 2nd round matchups were relatively weak.
In 2006, my matchup [Mich. St. vs. UNC] never happened as George Mason wiped out Mich. St. then UNC.
In 2005, I didn’t specifically anoint one matchup, but I alluded to the Kansas-Wisconsin game, but Bucknell took out Kansas in the 1st round to prevent that from happening.
This year, I've got Georgetown vs. Tennessee as the matchup to see. Tennessee has beaten Kentucky and Kansas this year, so they are capable of playing at a high level.

Darkhorse - BYU - A 7-seed this year... last year I also listed them as a darkhorse. This year, I like their chances even more. As proof of their potential, they are ranked #9 in Sagarin ratings (compared to only #23 last year). They are also ranked #7 in Ken-Pomeroy ratings.
Ok. St/G-Tech winner - See above
Texas A&M - I don't know much about them, but I do know if they get out of the 1st round, they probably draw Purdue (missing their best player) and a Duke team (susceptible to good PG play?). A&M has been missing PG Dash Harris. His healthy return could spur a huge run.

Region of Death- No doubt, it's the Midwest region (Kansas's). It's just vicious. As said OkState and G-Tech have NBA players. Ohio State has Evan Turner. Maryland and Michigan State can meet in the 2nd round... as can Georgetown and Tennessee. 2 of the mid-majors that have been ranked this season (UNLV and Northern Iowa) meet in the 1st round... and then get a crack at Kansas! I have no idea what to do with this region. Too bad the NCAA doesn't check that their "S-curve" doesn't screw over the top overall seed... like it did this year!

Cinderella Final 4 Team - I'm historically bad at this... (2009 - W. Virginia - lost in 1st; 2008 - USC - lost in 1st; 2007 - Maryland - lost in 2nd; 2006 - UCLA - 2-seed, made Final 4; 2005 - Utah - 6-seed, made Sweet 16).
This year, I'm going with: 3-seeded Baylor. It's kind of a cop-out because Duke sucks and Villanova has been on a slide the 2nd half.

Rule #1: All (4) 1-seeds will NOT make Final4 -
Duke will not make it this year. I could see the other (3) 1-seeds making it... or absolute carnage happening.

Rule#4: A 12-seed always beats a 5 (except in 2000 and 2007)-
As has become the norm, the NCAA would much rather let mid-majors battle each other as opposed to having a bigger school get taken down. This year, Butler-UTEP and Temple-Cornell are 5-12 matchups where anything can happen. It's really scary, because UTEP was ranked this past week and still landed a 12-seed. Cornell is the best 3-point shooting team in the country (43.4%), which I assume will also translate to the tourney.

Rule#6: There always is one conference w/ multiple teams in the final4 (except in 2007 and 2008) – My favorite options:
Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Baylor (Big 12)
Kansas, Syracuse, West Virginia, Duke (Big East)
Georgetown, Kansas St, West Virginia, Duke (Big East)
Tennessee, Syracuse, Kentucky, Baylor (SEC)
Ohio St, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Duke (Big 10)

Rule#9: If you win your power conference tourney, you won't do well in the NCAA tourney. (Exception: top 10 teams):

In 2005, one team lost in the 1st round, the other in the 2nd round
In 2006, all 3 that qualified got bounced in the 1st round.
In 2007, one team qualified [Oregon], but they made the elite 8. I still say Oregon had an easy draw though.
In 2008, Pitt (Big East) and Georgia (SEC) are the only teams that qualified. Georgia only had a 14-seed and got bounced by Xavier. Pitt got a 4-seed and was upset by Michigan State in the 2nd round.
In 2009, 4 teams qualified: Purdue (sweet 16), Missouri (elite 8), USC (2nd round), and Miss St. (1st round loser as 13-seed).
This year, we have: Washington (PAC-10). They are an 11-seed and I expect them to lose to Marquette.

Sunday Flash Facts....And Then There Were Two

Some Sunday Thoughts.....

1. And so after 5 months and 300 odd teams, Division I is down to two teams for the championship. There's usually a difference between college and pro basketball and this year seems to epitomize it. While the NBA will be won by the team with the best player and supporting cast for said player, this NCAA Championship will be won by the best team. There's no super stand out (although Lucas and Lawson come close). Instead the winners at the Final 4 truly went to the best teams. Michigan State harassed UConn into turnovers, forced tough shots, and made outstanding outlet passes to bury the heavily favored Huskies. UNC, while not having a future NBA star, is loaded with NBA talent (I'm willing to bet at least 4 of the five starters will get drafted). The balance showed as the Big 4 (Ty, Tayler , Wayne and Danny) each had a moment that kept Villanova at bay. And so on Monday the two best teams will re-match in the same place they played at the start of the season albeit this time for the right to cut down the nets.

2. Michigan State has consistently been the sum is greater than the parts type team. They've knocked off two #1 teams and shut down top tier future NBA talent. They have home court advantage and a great coach. However I'm picking UNC to win it all. UNC's depth means any one player can have an off day and the team still win. Secondly, somewhere along the way UNC learned to play outstanding perimeter defense - which means teams that fall behind are in serious trouble. Three, UNC has played in Detroit against MSU meaning the hostile crowd won't be nearly as effective as its being made out to be. Finally, Roy Williams is every bit as good of a coach as Izzo (5 Final 4s in 8 seasons).

Final Score
UNC 74
MSU 65

3. A funny thing happened on the way to the Colisseum...the lowly Charlotte Bobcats are on the edge of a playoff spot. Who is responsible for this catastrophe? Joe Dumars blowing up the Pistons? Chicago hiring a coach that is unable to use vowels? Phoenix trading Boris Diaw for several packs of Big League Chew? Larry Brown? Nah that can't be it. Search me....but count that as things I didn't see coming at the start of the year

4. For those not following Golden State, and there's no reason you should, old Nellie is trying to get that section 8 so he can finally retire and move back to Toledo for his beloved Tony Packos hot dogs. Nelson refuses to play his star rookie, randomly benches his starters, and demands that his point guards play with socks on their hands for safety sake. I haven't seen someone so blantantly try to get fired since Hitman during his stint as a backup dancer for the Moscow Ballet.

Flash Facts: Onto Detroit

This past week of two NCAAs was really two separate story lines and Flash Facts. The Sweet 16 games were nearly pure chalk and a Big East Dance. Of the elite half came from the Big East. All of the number 1 seeds advanced and half of the #2 seeds made it. However the Road to the Final 4 finally produced much needed madness as the story lines of one conference being the best ever seemed to be put to bed as did pure chalk.

1) UConn over Mizzou - An outstanding game from start to finish (well save for the beginning of the 2nd half were nobody could buy a basket with a government bailout) UConn was able to handle the son of 40 minutes of Hell (that's Nolan Richard's Arkansas teams for those too young to remember) through outstanding PG ala AJ Price. Sometimes its hard to believe he's only one year removed from a devastating knee injury. Budding Freshman star in Walker also kept the Tigers at Bay

2) Michigan State over Louisville - Of all the elite 8 games this was probably the biggest shocker. Not necessarily just that MSU won but how they won. They simply dominated Louisville. Instead of being the namely big white guy Zuton played with skill and poise. Lucas, the Big 10 player of the year, showed that quality basketball is still played in the Heartland.

3) UNC over Oklahoma - Its always nice to rub it a Dookies face so UNC got the added joy of taken down a Capel coached squad. Blake Griffin appears to have an NBA ready body and will be coming to a rookie of a year near you next year. However in college basketball great teams can beat outstanding individuals as Danny Green , Lawson and Ed Davis were the main cogs in the Tar Heel steamroller.

4) Villanova over Pittsburgh - Villanova has somehow flown under the radar. Perhaps because Louisville, UConn and Pitt hogged the glory. Perhaps its been a long time since their escapades against G-Town. Who knows. But they matched if not exceeded Pittsburgh's physical style play which shocked me (I also learned "physicality" is now the most over-used word in basketball supplanting "length") . It came down to one of the most exciting, bizarre, and other cliche phrases 10 seconds I have ever seen. 3s, turnovers, fouls, and full court drivers all condensed into 10 seconds. Fantabulous.

Onto to Detroit....

Sweet 16 - With 14 of the top 16 teams

Best 1st round Buzzer Beater: Siena over OSU... not exactly a buzzer beater, but a 3-pointer in regulation, in OT, and in double OT to win certainly qualifies.

Team Most Likely to be Compared to Deer: Wake Forest. Wake was down 9-0 and 25-12 just minutes into the game. Deer in the headlights look was happening all over the court! It may have messed up my bracket, but I was much happier to see Cleveland State win a game in the tournament!

#1 Seed Most Likely to Lose in the Sweet 16: I'm going with UConn, though it looks like all the #1s have relatively easy sweet 16 games. UConn is missing that guard and Purdue has players at all the positions and could pose a very tough challenge.

Mid-Major Most Likely to Do More Damage: The easy pick here is Gonzaga. Gonzaga gets a shot at a #1-seed, which they haven't seen since 2003 (where they lost to Arizona in a classic double-OT game). They also lost to #1s in 2001 (where they lost to Michigan State when Gonzaga was a 12-seed) and in 1999 of course (to eventual champion UConn and Rip Hamilton and Khalid El-Amin). Is the fourth time the charm???

Most Intriguing Matchup: Villanova-Duke. No question for me. Duke is an interesting team with the fact that they have no true low-post presence but they seem to be much more efficient than in past years (where they had early exits).

March Madness 2009 - Instantaneous Analysis

One of the greatest day in sports is the day the brackets come out (at least in my humble opinion). Now, it's time for everyone in America to suddenly become basketball experts! Let's take a look at how this year's bracket shapes up:

Best 1st round matchup- UCLA vs. VCU - This is very exciting simply because VCU's PG, Eric Maynor, already took down Duke two years ago. He's projected to get drafted this spring. Whenever there's a bona fide PG running around on a mid-major, the other team has to be concerned.

Most anticipated 2nd round matchup – First, a little history lesson proving how my personal anticipated 2nd round matchup often never happens.
In 2008, my anticipated matchups included two: Indiana vs UNC (where Indiana lost badly in the 1st round to Arkansas) and Notre Dame and Washington State (which actually did happen).
In 2007 my “anticipated” matchup actually happened [Boston College vs. former Big East rival Georgetown], but 2007’s 2nd round matchups were relatively weak.
In 2006, my matchup [Mich. St. vs. UNC] never happened as George Mason wiped out Mich. St. then UNC.
In 2005, I didn’t specifically anoint one matchup, but I alluded to the Kansas-Wisconsin game, but Bucknell took out Kansas in the 1st round to prevent that from happening
This year, I'm going with two: Arizona State vs. Syracuse (where both are coming off conference tournament losses in the title game) and West Virginia vs. Kansas. I think all 4 teams have been inconsistent throughout the season yet each have also proven to be capable of beating anyone.

Region of Death- Louisville's region! Without question, it's the hardest, which is unfair, considering that Louisville is the "#1 overall seed". Also, to make sure the road is impossible, their 2nd round game is against Ohio State in Dayton, just an hour from campus! This region has it all: a healthy Izzo-coach 2-seed (Michigan State), the defending champion (Kansas), West Virginia, an ACC-team that beat Duke and UNC (Wake), and one of the best mid-majors (Utah). Honestly, before the tournament, I would have been happy to have Wake and Michigan State in my Final 4 along with some #1s. Now I can't do that, and I even have to root against Wake in the 1st round to support my team du jour, Cleveland State.

Cinderella Final 4 Team- West Virginia - They have showed flashes of brilliance, beating down Pitt, destroying Ohio State, and playing in the Big East. Negatives: their coach is Bob Huggins and they would have to beat Kansas, Michigan St, and probably Louisville to reach the final four.
Darkhorses: Arizona State - James Harden could catch fire and take Arizona State over a tired Syracuse team, a dizzy Blake Griffin and Oklahoma, and an injured UNC.
BYU - they shoot 3s from all over the place, and UConn is lacking in the guard department, so if you feel like rolling the dice with an 8-seed, this would be the choice.
Gonzaga - if Lawson is unable to play for UNC, Gonzaga could have a real easy road. They just have to beat Akron, then they either get Illinois (who is missing their PG) or 12-seed Western Kentucky. If UNC is missing Lawson, Gonzaga could get to the elite 8 very easily and reach the Final 4 on the 10th anniversary of their run to the Elite 8 in 1999.

Now, on to the rules I've devised to analyze the tournament! If you want to see the rules I’ve devised, check out the link to 2005’s blog article on the "Rules of Engagement".

Rule #1: All (4) 1-seeds will NOT make Final4 -
-Yes, last year all 1-seeds made it. I'm guaranteeing it won't happen again this year, especially because just about every team is flawed this year either by injury (UConn, UNC) or by inconsistency (Louisville) or by tending to foul out (Pitt).

Rule#4: A 12-seed always beats a 5 (except in 2000 and 2007)-
Western Kentucky over Illinois is the best bet, because Illinois is missing their PG and because Illinois lost a game at home 38-33 earlier in the season.
My 2nd favorite is actually Arizona over Utah, though I will be rooting for Utah to prove to the Selection Committee that mid-majors can compete.

Rule#6: There always is one conference w/ multiple teams in the final4 (except in 2007 and 2008) – My favorite options:
Louisville, Memphis, Pitt, UNC (Big East)
West Virginia, Missouri, Pitt, Oklahoma (Big East / Big 12)
Wake, UConn, Villanova, UNC (Big East / ACC)
Michigan St, Purdue, Duke, UNC (Big Ten)
Kansas, Washington, Pitt, Arizona St (PAC-10)

Rule#9: If you win your power conference tourney, you won't do well in the NCAA tourney. (Exception: top 10 teams):

In 2005, one team lost in the 1st round, the other in the 2nd round
In 2006, all 3 that qualified got bounced in the 1st round.
In 2007, one team qualified [Oregon], but they made the elite 8. I still say Oregon had an easy draw though.
In 2008, Pitt (Big East) and Georgia (SEC) are the only teams that qualified. Georgia only had a 14-seed and got bounced by Xavier. Pitt got a 4-seed and was upset by Michigan State in the 2nd round.
This year, the qualifying teams are:
Purdue, Missouri, USC, and Mississippi State.
USC & Mississippie State I'm slating as 1st round losers. The rules have treated me well, so I will place Purdue as a 2nd-round loser. I'm going to go against the grain though with Missouri and place them in the Sweet 16 for the simple reason that Marquette (likely 2nd round opponent) lost their PG and has not played well.

NCAA Tournament: Crunching Numbers on Power Conference Teams Making the Conference Tournament Finals

One of the rules I have developed for picking NCAA tourney games, involves NOT trusting teams in the power conference tournaments that win their conference tournaments if they are ranked OUTSIDE the top 10. I have decided to finally publish some statistics to either prove or disprove this rule and to also look at the losing team in the conference final.

I started by entering data on the big-6 conference tournaments (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, SEC, PAC-10) since 1992. I was curious as to what the effect is on playing 3, 4, or even 5 games in as many days and if that physical strain produces any kind of trend. Please note that some conferences didn't have conference tournaments until later on, and I was unable to find complete data on the Big 8 tournament from 1992-1996.

So, my unofficial data shows this:

Average wins for top 5 team (before the conference tournament) that WINS their conference tournament:
3.5 (better than Elite 8 on average; an incredible 16 out of 32 top-5 teams make the Final 4)
Average wins for top 5 team that LOSES in the final of their conference tournament:
4.1 (five Final 4s out of seven teams - I don't have much data on this occurrence)

Average wins for team ranked 6-10 (before the conference tournament) that WINS their conference tournament:
2.6 (only two Final 4s out of 21 teams)
Average wins forteam ranked 6-10 that LOSES in the final of their conference tournament:
2.3 (only ONE Final 4 out of 17 teams - it was Duke in 2004 with Luol Deng)

Average wins for team ranked 11-17 that WINS their conference tournament:
1.6 (falling short of Sweet 16 on average; only two Final 4s out of 12 teams)
Average wins for team ranked 11-17 that LOSES in the final of their conference tournament:
1.4 (falling short of Sweet 16 on average; only one Final 4 out of 14 teams - it was the 1994 Florida Gators that beat a 9-seed in the regional finals)

Average wins for team ranked 18-25 that WINS their conference tournament:
0.9 (four out of 8 failed to win a game; one made the Final 4 - it was Mississippi St in 1996 with Erick Dampier)
Average wins for team ranked 18-25 that LOSES in the final of their conference tournament:
1.1 (four out of 16 failed to win a game; no Final 4 appearances)

Average wins for unranked team that WINS their conference tournament:
0.3 (Only 2 out of 7 won a game)
Average wins for unranked team that LOSES in the final of their conference tournament:
0.8 (Only 7 out of 13 won a game, and one of them, West Virginia in 2005, made the Elite 8. Those three wins pushed the average higher, but generally, these teams don't do well either).

The only way for this data to even mean anything, is to compare this data with the average wins that a team of their seeding achieves. For example, an average 3-seed wins 1.8 games. If Missouri, a team ranked #14 entering last week, receives a 3-seed hypothetically, the data says that they are likely to underperform to some degree, since on average teams of that rank only win 1.6 games.

Here, is a listing of the average number of wins for each seeding since the Tournament had 64 teams in 1985.

Seed = Average number of wins (through 2008)
1= 3.43
2= 2.41
3= 1.82
4= 1.49
5= 1.15
6= 1.25
7= 0.88
8= 0.67
9= 0.58
10= 0.63
11= 0.49
12= 0.50
13= 0.25
14= 0.18
15= 0.04
16= 0.00

The Madness #1: The Sweet Sound of Silence

Championship week for some schools is the most important time of the year. Cleveland State (the Vikings) faced off against their arch-rival Butler for the Horizon League Championship. CSU hadn't been to the big dance since 1986's magical year (when they beat Indiana) and to get back they had to win AT Butler (#17 in the nation). All the hard work all year came down to 40 minutes. It was a see-saw battle but as the last desperate Butler heave came up short the sweet sound of silence descended in the arena. CSU won the game, the conference tourney, and the right to go dancing. Whether or not they win A game let alone the entire thing is fairly immaterial. Tonight was their prize and they won it. Part of the joy of the Madness is that in many ways the Championship game is less important than the games along the way that are littered with tiny memories with less than famous schools. Let the moments of Madness continue.

A Different Kind of Madness

My bank is not even on here. I guess they don't believe in veterans affairs either. Where is USAA? You will have to click on the image.

Congrats Kansas

Rock Chalk Jayhawks (well the hell does that mean anyway?) defeated Memphis to win the NCAA Championship. Super Nintendo Chalmers hit a ridiculous shot to send the game into over-time where KU sealed the deal. An outstanding back and forth game. Kansas' comeback with about 2 and 1/2 minutes will go down as one of the better comebacks and certainly one of the more bitter bills for Memphis to swallow. That said I'm sure we will see at least half dozen of those players in the NBA at some point. I think Rose has certainly made the case as a possible number 1 over Michael Beasley for the draft. But that discussion is for another day, tonight congrats to KU (umm and hope you don't lose your coach to OSU (as in Oklahoma State)

Final Four of 1-seeds

The Final 4 is here... and from purely a basketball perspective, it should be a phenomenal weekend with all 1-seeds duking it out. To be honest, I can't wait to see what will happen, because anything truly is possible.

However, I can't stop the anger that's been building up inside of me, since Davidson fell short of knocking off Kansas. All 1-seeds in the Final 4? It's never happened before. From a bracketology perspective, I've never been more mad.

I feel like I'm Bruce Banner, just trying to keep the Incredible Hulk inside me during my morning commute through rush hour...

UNC, Kansas, Memphis, and UCLA just rewarded all the spineless, gutless, slugs out there who pick all the 1-seeds!!!!!!!!!!

As most of the readers probably know, it is my dream to one day pick the entire Final 4. I may not have picked all of the Final 4 correctly this year, but you know what? I would be ASHAMED if I had done it this year! Picking all the 1-seeds is the biggest cop-out! So, if anyone ever tells me that they once picked the Final 4 correctly, I will immediately have one follow up question: "Is it because you picked all the 1-seeds during 2008?" And if the answer is "yes," then I will know that that person has no balls. No guts. No glory... and a big fat asterisk next to their accomplishment, maybe even bigger than the one that Barry Bonds has. I may never pick the entire Final 4 correctly, but if there's one thing I still have left, it is my DIGNITY.

Goliath is King

For all these years despite the fact that #1 seeds should be making the Final 4 it has never happened that all 4 did. This year though Goliath smashed the Cinderallas. Yeah Davidson and Stephen was a great story. Yeah Xavier put up a nice fight. But in the end they were no match for the Goliaths. UNC, UCLA, Kansas and Memphis who have been fighting and jousting for the top spot all year will get to play a single elimination tournament to determine this year's winner. Its hard to remember a time when four teams where so far ahead of any other team. There is no doubt that these are the 4 best teams.

UNC boasts probably the deepest team. Tyler "Psycho T" Hansborough may or may not be a decent pro but in college he is tops. Couple him with a 2 deep hockey style line shifts, a great coach and a style of play that can wear any team down.

Kansas - Finally has lived up to its hype of two years ago and is powered by the best guard play in the tournament (possibly because they have 3) couple that with Darell Arthur inside play and its a complete team.

UCLA - The Vegas Odds favorite at the start of the tournament. Kevin Love continues to be the most dominant big man with an inside or outside. Russel Westbrook and Collison are great guards too and will be great pros someday as well.

Memphis - Has the most athletic team in the tournament. With 4 of their 5 starters potential first round draft picks they easily are stronger, faster and bigger than anyone else theyre going to be playing. They're led by top 2 draft pick point guard Derrick Rose.


An argument can be mode for any of these teams winning it all and any argument can be made for any team getting knocked out on the first night.

If I had to bet now I'm going with Memphis over UNC. So who do you got ?

Creating a Tournament Bracket

So, most of our brackets are already decimated. Those who are lucky enough to have all four Final Four teams remaining in play should be quite thrilled to be where we are. Most of us measure our success against our friends and against the other ESPN.com users, but here I propose a simpler comparison:

I created about 6 brackets this year. Several of the brackets were absurd - lottery-ticket attempts to win the $10,000 if something crazy happens. In order to pursue the $10,000, you have to choose some random team to go really far into the tournament. On the off-chance you pick a team like George Mason to advance, and they actually advance, you're sitting on a winning lottery ticket. Several years ago, when George Mason advanced to the Final Four only 4 people had picked the four Final Four teams (and one of them thought they were picking GW, not George Mason!) Several of the brackets I created were attempts to win among my group of friends - I picked them as my not-so-expert analysis dictated. And last, for the first time ever, I created a bracket with absolutely no upsets - a control - which will gauge if I (or anyone else) knows anything about college basketball - or at least - more than the selection committee.

While we're only at the Sweet 16, I'd like to note that the control bracket - with no upsets - is in the 93rd percentile of all ESPN.com brackets. My next best bracket is in the 86th percentile. I'll keep you updated as we advance through the tournament. But as of now, the selection committee is kicking most of our asses. So, next time you gauge the success of your bracket - don't just compare it to your retarded friends' brackets - but compare it to what would have happened if you simply did not think at all, and chose the lower number each time until you get to the Final Four. This way, you can see how unproductive all the thought you put into your bracket truly is.

Guide To the Sweet 16

I think my favorite round of the Tournament might just be the Sweet 16. Its far enough into the tournament that all of the teams left are evenly matched or at least playing at a high level. On the other hand its not too late into the tournament that you can't view those that got their via crazy zany upsets. Sure occasionally you get the George Mason but typically the Sweet 16 is the Alamo of the Mid-Majors. So here's a guide to the Sweet 16. Enjoy


1) Safety First, Last and Always
There first thing you need to do is make sure you have a safe environment while watching the Sweet 16. I can't stress this enough. Many of my tournament viewings have been ruined by snowstorms, floods, Zombie attacks, Canadian invasions, Canadian Zombie Invasions, and the ever present danger of Bob Knight on rabies (Hey am I the only to notice how subdued Knight is on ESPN? I swear he barely has the energy to raise his head. He's like one of those tigers in Vegas. You just know someone is going to miss his daily injection and then Knight will eat Diggers Phelps on air) Anyway so I recommend a safe house, bomb shelter, or a small island nation to watch the game at to avoid interruptions.

2) Pick a Team to Root For
What you say you can only root for the school you went to or were conceived at? Well to that I reply: To quote Dante "Suck on my Italian balls "(although my Medieval Tuscan is a bit rusty so I might be a little off on that). In any event there's too many games, with too few chances of you being directly connected to your team not pick a team to root for. So pick a team from the same state your from, family members attended, visited, had a 3 way with underage Thai women (Publius I'm looking at you). I suppose you could pick the Peter King method (pick the school with the best white guy) but that seems, well, racist. That said individual players can be used to select teams . Hey maybe you love Brook Lopez's hair (is he the brother with floppy curls? Gets me every time) or Tyler Hansborough's hustle or Kareem Rush's brother because you remember Kareem's motivational speech "Banging Midgets: An Issue of Equity".

3) Pick a Team To Hate
As important as it is to pick teams you like you need to also find teams to hate. Again there's just too many games just to root for "competitive games" or something lame like that. Methods for selecting team's to hate include if the university's name is Duke... that is all. Need more rules? Fine. Teams that have screwed over your brackets in the past (FUCKING KANSAS) are fair game. Finally its ok to hate teams for no apparent reason like how I hate Georgetown (ok not random John Thompson II punched Dean Smith's dog for no good reason for which I'll never forgive him).

4) Root For and Against Your Brackets Simultaneously
Much like fantasy football tournament time brings a divided heart. Do you only root for your bracket? Well that seems fairly soulless especially if it involved having a UConn player blow out his knee to get you that upset. Plus you already picked out the teams you like and dislike and you'd have wasted all that effort. So the key here is to root for and against your bracket simultaneously. Impossible you say? Yes. Crazy you say? Yes. Impossible you say? No. It just requires short term memory loss. There's 9 million reasons to cheer when anything any team does affects you somehow and its absolutely unconnected to any other thought/emotions you just had.

5) Denial is Not Just a River in Egypt

Sometimes through no fault of your own (well probably no fault of your own) you don't get the result you want. Maybe that team you had winning the championship gets knocked out. Or maybe that team you rooted for/against/neutral won/lost/tied. A pretty crushing blow. The important thing though its only a few days away from getting revenge. Yes only a few hours of waiting and that team that you didn't want to do well will have a chance to absolutely implode. So redouble your efforts, never admit failure, and hold your ground no matter what the evidence says otherwise. Err for the Elite 8 (why is there something else that speech reminds you of?)

2008's Sweet 16

Time to review and preview the March Madness...

Best 1st round Buzzer Beater: Easy one here, it's Western Kentucky’s guy shooting it with 2 guys in his face after hardly taking any shots all game. And now, W. Kentucky’s in the sweet 16!

Craziest Game of the 2nd Round: Many candidates here, but there can be only one. I’m going with the Marquette-Stanford game, as already talked about by Mighty. The contrasts in style just made the game sensational. And Brook Lopez’s absurd rattling last-second shot. Honorable mention: Tennessee-Butler, Davidson-Georgetown

#1 Seed Most Likely to Lose in the Sweet 16: Memphis is looking like an easy pick here. First off, Coach Izzo on Michigan state is like 5-0 in the sweet 16 (2005- Final Four as a 5-seed, 2003 - Elite 8 as a 7-seed, 1999 - 2001 - three Final 4s w/ Championship in 2000). It’s absurd. Even if Memphis survives that game, they’ll still have to deal with either a similar Texas team (guards) or the Twin Towers of Stanford.

Mid-Major Most Likely to Do More Damage: Clearly, the easy pick here is Xavier. Xavier’s a 3-seed, so it’s kind of a cop-out and everyone's been aware of them all season. The question most of America will want answers is to see how Wisconsin deals with Stephen Curry and Davidson.

Guy Who Lost a Lot of Money: Coach Dan Dakich, Indiana. Coach Dakich was the head coach at Bowling Green for 10 years but never ever made the Big Dance surprisingly. Dakich finally gets his shot with a star-studded IU team… and they get creamed. It’s not all Dakich’s fault. However, he probably isn’t ever going to get a chance to be a head coach at any prominent program. Oh well. I’m sure if Dakich made the sweet 16, he would have been able to find a head job somewhere next year.

Most Intriguing Matchup: Tennessee-Louisville. Are you kidding me? Two teams that both like to press, run, and play crazy zones! This game should have it all! I just hope Coach Bruce Pearl sweats through his suit. That's when you know it's a good game.

Madness Continues Round 2

Well Round 2 in the books in and the Madness continues to infect the tournament like insanity and Britney Spears.

Curry Carries Davidson
Stephen Curry , son of Dell Curry, last of clod hoppers downed another favorite. Georgetown ran out to a big lead before Curry took over the second half draining ridiculous shot after ridiculous shot. In graphic terms Roy Hibbert was no match for Davidson's balls to chin style play. 10th seed marches on.....

Volunteers Squeezed.....
Butler (who is the only team in the NCAA without a mascot) managed to give Bruce Pearl a heart attack with a last second comeback that came up just short. Butler made a last second run, tied it, sent it to overtime, lost all its money at the slots, had another comeback, but fell just short

Holy Crap
Marquette and Stanford pulled in probably the best game of the tournament. A clash of styles, twin seven footers, overtime, last second shots, public nudity, and best of all I got the game right in my brackets.

Holy Crap II
UCLA over A&M. Teams trading shots...check Fade away by freshman superstar.... check a Tynus Edney small guy coast to coast last second shot to win...check. Much like accidently getting shipped a Victoria's Secret catalog I didn't expect it but I sure enjoyed it....


Other Memorable Moments?