NCAA conference realignments: A lesson in history, leading to a scary conclusion

I'm not as big into college football as other readers/writers on our blog. However, I've been extremely intrigued by the endless turmoil over the last 1.5 years.

I was reading an article on Yahoo which led me to an amazing, well-researched, historical piece on the Atlantic.com , chronicling all of the insanity of the NCAA. Some of my favorite moments:
1) in 1939, freshman players at Pitt went on strike because they were getting paid less than their upperclassman teammates. "Embarrassed, the NCAA in 1948 enacted a “Sanity Code,” which was supposed to prohibit all concealed and indirect benefits for college athletes", but the 'Sanity code' was repelaed within a few years
2) In 1951, the NCAA hired Walter Byers as executive director. Then: " he lobbied a University of Kentucky dean—A. D. Kirwan, a former football coach and future university president—not to contest the NCAA’s dubious legal position (the association had no actual authority to penalize the university), pleading that college sports must do something to restore public support. His gambit succeeded when Kirwan reluctantly accepted a landmark precedent: the Kentucky basketball team would be suspended for the entire 1952–53 season. Its legendary coach, Adolph Rupp, fumed for a year in limbo."
3) At the 1951 NCAA convention, there was a vote of "161–7 to outlaw televised games except for a specific few licensed by the NCAA staff." At this time, they were more concerned that people would stay at home and not attend games (and di not realize how much moeny could be made from advertising on the broadcasts).
4) Then... "On June 6, 1952, NBC signed a one-year deal to pay the NCAA $1.14 million for a carefully restricted football package. Byers routed all contractual proceeds through his office. He floated the idea that, to fund an NCAA infrastructure, his organization should take a 60 percent cut; he accepted 12 percent that season. (For later contracts, as the size of television revenues grew exponentially, he backed down to 5 percent.) Proceeds from the first NBC contract were enough to rent an NCAA headquarters, in Kansas City. "
5) In 1961, Byers "negotiated the NCAA’s television package up to $3.1 million per football season—which was higher than the NFL’s figure in those early years."
6) "In 1981 a rogue consortium of 61 major football schools threatened to sign an independent contract with NBC for $180 million over four years. With a huge chunk of the NCAA’s treasury walking out the door, Byers threatened sanctions." However, Georgia and Oklahoma responded with an antitrust suit, which led to a landmark 1984 case. " NCAA v. Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the NCAA’s latest football contracts with television—and any future ones—as an illegal restraint of trade that harmed colleges and viewers. Overnight, the NCAA’s control of the television market for football vanished." This decision allowed the schools to each sell any games they wanted to... and perhaps more relevant to today's happenings, there was no requirement to share revenues with smaller schools.
7) Interestingly though, basketball revenue from the NCAA tourney COVERED the losses of the football revenue (because the NCAA was just taking a % cut of the football, as opposed to who knows what amount of the revenues from the NCAA tourney). "During the 1980s, income from the March Madness college basketball tournament, paid directly by the television networks to the NCAA, grew tenfold. The windfall covered—and then far exceeded—what the organization had lost from football. "
8) The Atlantic.com touches on a lot of different topics, including the NCAA's "amateurism," and how it never has been accomplished, the fact that NFL players association gets paid $35 million per year for use of their likenesses by EA sports but college athletes themselves get paid nothing, as well as the Ed O'Bannon case, which is trying to get money paid to college athletes for use of their likenesses on jerseys, video games, etc.... but the article all culminates with one theory... the NCAA receives 95% of its revenues from the men's baksetball tournament. ... which leads to some chilling truths:
a_ "if the big sports colleges don’t need the NCAA to administer a national playoff in football, then they don’t need it to do so in basketball. In which case, they could cut out the middleman in March Madness and run the tournament themselves. Which would deprive the NCAA of close to $1 billion a year, more than 95 percent of its revenue."
b) "To alienate member colleges would be to jeopardize its own existence. Long gone are television bans and the “death penalty” sentences (commanding season-long shutdowns of offending teams) once meted out to Kentucky (1952), Southwestern Louisiana (1973), and Southern Methodist University (1987). Institutions receive mostly symbolic slaps nowadays. Real punishments fall heavily on players and on scapegoats like literacy tutors."

Which leads me to one frightening conclusion... what is stopping the 4 super conferences (I'm assuming Big East and Big 12 case to exist, or no longer get a spot at the BCS table) from breaking away from the NCAA... AND ALSO forming their own basketball tournament? Suddenly, there are millions more (or whatever it is that the NCAA keeps from that $771 million contract) for the 4 super conferences to split for themselves (ACC, Big10, Pac16, SEC16). I suppose the alternative to this scenario is that the NCAA makes a deal with the Big 4 to save itself... and continue to let the Big 4 do whatever it wants in football. What would be stopping the Big 4 from making a grab for the basketball money too? Not that I want them too, but the Big 4 could even spin it as a way for ALL of the schools to get paid MORE (with of course paying out more money to schools that go farther which, most of the time other than Butler time, is going to be a school from the Super-4).

The Most Unlikely Final Four Ever

It's one thing to have one party crasher at the Final Four... it's another to have two party crashers... and it's yet another to have two party crashers along with a 3-seed and a 4-seed!

My favorite things about this year's final four is not just that either VCU or Butler will be playing for the championship... it's that only 2 people out of over 6 million got all four right on ESPN.

Check out some of these other awesome stats:
Less than 7% of brackets actually had these 4 teams winning their first game!

In terms of handicapping the Final Four, I actually predicted the entire Elite Eight incorrectly, so I don't believe that my analysis means much. I tend to believe that VCU's magical 3-point shooting has to end because Butler plays better defense than anyone else. I also tend to believe that the evil Kentucky Wildcats will prevail against UConn and then win the championship because teams I dislike usually win. I actually am starting to believe that Butler has a decent chance to win the whole thing... without last year's NBA pick Gordon Hayward. I'm not a big Hayward fan (he doesn't translate well to the NBA), but last year on Butler, he was a defensive force and bailed them out offensively quite a few times with his rare combination of size and speed. If Butler wins it all this year?!? Coach Brad Stevens is coach of the universe... and the refs from the Pitt game should receive Christmas cards every year!

Sweet 16 - It's been interesting... for the Big East

The Big East had a rough weekend. It started with, "Oh, look at us! We got 11 bids! We are the best conference ever." It ended with "Ouch. We didn't do too well." 11 entered. 2 survived. Granted, the Big East does have a genuine beef in that 4 teams matched up in the 2nd round (i.e. Cincy vs. UConn and Syracuse vs. Marquette). Granted, Marquette was an 11-seed who wasn't expected to make the 2nd round. Nonetheless, even if those teams were separated into different spots, the Big East still had a disappointing weekend, mainly because 1-seed Pitt lost a nailbiter to 8-Butler, 2-seed Notre Dame got demolished by Florida State, and 4-seed Louisville lost to Morehead State in the 1st round. The best part about my bracket this weekend was my confidence in Notre Dame losing in the 2nd round... but I didn't get any credit for that because I had Texas A&M beating Notre Dame!

Anyways, there really has been a lot of carnage this weekend... but the most interesting thing about next weekend is certainly Ohio State vs. Kentucky and Duke vs. Arizona. All four are perennial powers... and all four have loads of NBA talent. After those two games, the more interesting thing will be who will come out of Pitt's region: Butler, Wisconsin, BYU, or Florida?

1-OSU vs. 4-Kentucky
11-Marquette vs. 2-UNC

1-Duke vs. 5-Arizona
3-UConn vs. 2-SD st

1-Kansas vs. 12-Richmond
11-VCU vs. 10-Florida State

8-Butler vs. 4-Wisconsin
3-BYU vs. 2-Florida

The Idiocy of the Selection Committee

Disclaimer: whereas 10 years ago I could name 2 or 3 starters on most every Tourney team, this year I can't even name one player on two of the #1 seeds.

But I can do math, and I'm not stupid - which apparently disqualifies me from being a member of the NCAA's Selection Committee. Explain this to me: why are the four play-in games for two #16 seeds, a #12, and an #11? What is the logic behind that?

As I see it, there's only two ways to handle a 68-team field: all of the play-in games must either be for #16 seeds, representing the 8 worst teams of the field, or for whatever seed number represents the 8 worst at-large entrants (i.e. the last 8 in). It would be most logical to have the 8 worst auto qualifiers - but I could understand the Committee not wanting to totally crap on those conferences by making them earn the right to get slaughtered by Duke, so I could understand having a play-in for the UABs and Clemsons of the world to fight it out for a #12 seed.

But what makes ZERO sense is to have the play-ins staggered as in this year's bracket. Why is it that SE #11 seed Gonzaga only has to win 6 times to win the title, but in the Southwest, USC or VCU must win a 7th game - and they're #11 seeds, too?!?! Consider that in '06, George Mason made it to the Final 4 as an #11...so we can't say "Oh, it doesn't matter, these teams will lose anyway." It does matter; these at-large teams and these #11/#12 seeds are fully capable of making a run into the Sweet 16 or farther. The inequity in allowing three #11 and #12 seeds a pass into the true first round, while forcing 4 other teams to play an extra game as the same seed number, is absolutely illogical and indefensible.

March Madness 2011 - Instaneous Analysis

In 2009, I crunched a lot of numbers before the Madness begins, pertaining to the performance of power-conference teams that win or are runner-ups in their conference tournaments.

Favorite team based on profiles -
In 2007, I started doing profiles of the top conferences before the tourney begins.

In 2007, I adopted Maryland as my favorite statistical profile... and they lost in the 2nd round.
In 2008, I adopted Notre Dame as my favorite statistical profile... and they lost in the 2nd round.
In 2009, I adopted BYU (lost in 1st round) and West Virginia (lost in 1st round).
In 2010, I adopted Baylor, and they did make the elite 8 (finally, did something right!)
This year? I'm adopting Washington and Belmont. Yes, Sports Illustrated already wrote two (yes, TWO!) articles adopting Belmont as a Cinderella before the tourney began... so they will be my darkhorse profile. Washington will be my more serious profile.

Best 1st round matchup -
Butler vs. Old Dominion - These are the two mid-majors I was most excited to see the tournament... so of course they are playing each other... then they have to play Pitt in the next round.
Wisconsin vs. Belmont - Wisconsin's been in some kind of swoon... and now they have to deal with Belmont who shoots great 3s, has a great backcourt, and uses 11 players to run as much as possible.

Most anticipated 2nd round matchup -
So far, only 3 of my 8 anticipated matchups have happened.
In 2010, my anticipated matchup was Georgetown vs. Tennessee. It didn't happen because the Ohio Bobcats, seeded 14th, absolutely demolished Georgetown in the 1st round.
In 2009, my anticipated matchups were Syracuse vs. Arizona State (which did happen), and West Virginia vs. Kansas (which didn't happen, because 11-seeded Dayton knocked out West Virginia).
In 2008, my anticipated matchups included two: Indiana vs UNC (where Indiana lost badly in the 1st round to Arkansas) and Notre Dame and Washington State (which actually did happen).
In 2007 my “anticipated” matchup actually happened [Boston College vs. former Big East rival Georgetown], but 2007’s 2nd round matchups were relatively weak.
In 2006, my matchup [Mich. St. vs. UNC] never happened as George Mason wiped out Mich. St. then UNC.
In 2005, I didn’t specifically anoint one matchup, but I alluded to the Kansas-Wisconsin game, but Bucknell took out Kansas in the 1st round to prevent that from happening.

This year, I'm going with 5-Arizona vs. 4-Texas. Texas was supposed to be a 2-seed everyone thought, but they've been punished severely down into the 4-spot. This should be a great game though, assuming both teams make it there.

Darkhorse - Temple! - One of these teams has to go to the Elite 8: Cincy/Missouri/UConn/Temple/Penn St/SD state. If you would have told me that a week ago, I would have laughed. So... I will go with Temple.

Region of Death- East Region (Ohio State's). Just brutal. George Mason vs. Villanova in the 1st round... and both were ranked last week, but one has to win then play Ohio State afterwards. We could have Ohio State, Kentucky, Syracuse, and UNC all in the sweet 16... plus we still have possible cinderalls in Xavier (who has made the Sweet 16 for the last three years, no joke), and Washington, who's computer profile is amazing (as said above).

Cinderella Final 4 Team - I'm historically bad at this... (2010 - Baylor (lost in Elite 8); 2009 - W. Virginia - lost in 1st; 2008 - USC - lost in 1st; 2007 - Maryland - lost in 2nd; 2006 - UCLA - 2-seed, made Final 4; 2005 - Utah - 6-seed, made Sweet 16).
This year, I'm going with: 4-seed Kentucky... if Ohio State were to fall, this would be a team to pick as a Cinderella.

Now, on to the applicable rules of engagement!
Rule #1: All (4) 1-seeds will NOT make Final4 (except in 2008)-
Sadly, Ohio State has the most hoops to jump through, as stated above. However, the next one-seed that looks like they could hit some trouble would be Pitt. They will have tough games in their 8-9 (Butler-Old Dominion) and they could face any of Kansas St, Utah St, Wisconsin, or Belmont who have all had fantactic seasons. This is before the elite 8 even occurs, so it could be troublesome.

Rule#4: A 12-seed always beats a 5 (except in 2000 and 2007)-
West Virginia is susceptible... they get the winner of UAB/Clemson. The UAB/Clemson winner should be excited (and they should be excited because neither of these teams were probably going to even make the tourney!). Kansas State vs. Utah State could also be really interesting.

Rule#6: There always is one conference w/ multiple teams in the final4 (except in 2007, 2008, and 2010) – It hasn't happened much lately, but here are some options:

Ohio St, Duke, Purdue, Pitt (Big 10)
UNC, Duke, Kansas, Pitt (ACC)
Syracuse, Texas, Notre Dame, Pitt (Big East)
Kentucky, Texas, Kansas, Pitt (Big 12)

Rule#9: If you win your power conference tourney and you are NOT a top-10 team, you won't do well in the NCAA tourney:

In 2005, one team lost in the 1st round, the other in the 2nd round
In 2006, all 3 that qualified got bounced in the 1st round!
In 2007, one team qualified [Oregon], but they made the elite 8. I still say Oregon had an easy draw though.
In 2008, Pitt (Big East) and Georgia (SEC) are the only teams that qualified. Georgia only had a 14-seed and got bounced by Xavier. Pitt got a 4-seed and was upset by Michigan State in the 2nd round.
In 2009, 4 teams qualified: Purdue (sweet 16), Missouri (elite 8), USC (2nd round), and Miss St. (1st round loser as 13-seed).
In 2010, one team qualified (Washington)... and they went on a sweet 16 run as an 11-seed.

That's a total of 12 teams qualified... and only 4 made it to the sweet 16 or further, with 5 losing in the 1st round. When I crunched the numbers for the years going all the way back to 1992 (for those conferences that had tournaments): 30 teams qualified, 1 won the championship (11th-ranked Florida in 2006), 1 went to the Final 4 (Miss. St in 1996 in a major surprise). 4 made it to to the sweet 16 or Elite 8, with TWELVE losing in the 1st round (though 5 of those were unranked conference tournament winners).

This year, we have these teams qualifying as conference tournament winners: Kentucky (SEC), Washington (PAC-10), UConn (Big East).

Rule #10: The favorite almost NEVER survives the “Region of Death” (UNC in 1998, UNC in 2005, Duke in 2004 made the Final 4, UNC in 2008 made the Final 4), and certainly will never win the whole tournament.
I went back through 1997 and tried to determine what my “region of death” was (a subjective assessment indeed). Out of the years I analyzed, only 4 #1 seeds made it through, and only 1 won the whole damn thing (UNC – 2005). Funny, because this year, Ohio State has drawn the "region of death"... but they could be the second team to possibly pull it off.

Pot Luck - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2011

This is the last preview, potpourri-style!

UNC, Sag #12, kenpom offense #39, kenpom defense #3, 1st in conference at 14-2, 24-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Kentucky, Clemson (twice), Duke (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Minnesota, Vandy, Illinois, Texas, Geo Tech (all with the PG who has since left)
3P% - 32.3%, 3Pt defense - 31.6%, Reb. Margin = +6.5, FT 66.0%, FG 45.2 %, Opp. FG 39.9% –
Led by Harrison Barnes (6'8" freshman, 14.1 ppg, 32% 3p%, 5.6 rebs), who is playing much better over the second half. Tyler Zeller is an awkward 7 footer (junior, 14.6 ppg, 54.1FG%, 7.1 Rebs). His skills may not translate well to the NBA, but he's good in college. Most importantly, Kendall Marshall (a 6'3" freshman, 5.9 ppg, 5.6 assists, 38.2% 3p%) has been incredible. According to kenpom.com, his assist rate is 8th best in the nation. This is considerable, considering the PG who started the first half of the season was much worse offensively (but probably better defensively). Tough team to gauge, since half the stats are with a different PG and before Harrison Barnes started playing well.

Duke, Sag #4, kenpom offense #7, kenpom defense #2, 1st in conference at 13-3, 27-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Marquette, Kansas St, Mich St, Butler, UNC (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Fla. St, St. John's, Va. Tech, UNC
3P% - 37.9%, 3Pt defense - 32.1%, Reb. Margin = +2.9, FT 74.8%, FG 46.7%, Opp. FG 40.1% –
Duke is led by Senior PG Nolan Smith (6'2", 21.6 ppg, 5.2 assists, 36% 3p%) and Senior 6'8" Kyle Singler (17.1 ppg, 6.6 rebs, 33.5% 3p%) . Seth Curry (6'1" sophomore, 9.4 ppg, 43.8% 3p%) has started to play more in the 2nd half. The big man is 6'10" sophomore Plumlee who is a great rebounder (7.1 ppg, 8.7 rebs, 57% FG%, 1.7 blocks). I just dislike Duke so much it's hard for me to judge them.

Utah St, Sag #21, kenpom offense #48, kenpom defense #6, 1st in conference at 15-1, 28-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: St. Mary's
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: BYU, Georgetown, IDAHO!
3P% - 36.1%, 3Pt defense - 30.6%, Reb. Margin = +8.2, FT 73.2%, FG 47.2%, Opp. FG 38.3% –
Classic small-conference team who hasn't played anyone. After they beat St. Mary's, St. Mary's went into a tail-spin, so they may not have any good wins. They are led by Tai Welsy (6'7" senior, 14.5 ppg, 7.9 rebs, 59% FG% ) who is very efficient, and junior Bockeith Pane (11.3 ppg, 3.5 assists, 43% FG%). 6'7" junior Brady Jardine ( 7.9 ppg, 7.4 rebs, 54% FG%) and Nate Bendall (6'9" senior, 6.4 ppg, 5.6 rebs, 49%) clean up the glass. They also have three 3-point specialists (46.8 and 37.7% and 36.4). It will be interesting to see who they are matched up against. However, notably, they were outrebounded 35-32 by BYU (BYU!), and outrebounded 28-21 by Georgetown.

Arizona, Sag #22, kenpom offense #17, kenpom defense #61, 1st in conference at 14-4, 25-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UCLA (split), USC (split), Wash (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Kansas, BYU, Ore St!!!, Washington (split), USC (split), UCLA (split)
3P% - 39.7%, 3Pt defense - 28.0%, Reb. Margin = +9.5, FT 75.2%, FG 47.3%, Opp. FG 43.9% –
I kept thinking this team might be dangerous... but they only beat good teams at home, then lose to them on the road. That is a bad sign I'm guessing. They have a top-5 NBA draft pick in 6'8" sophomore Derrick Williams (2nd in nation in true shooting % (70.3!?!), 18.8 ppg, 8.2 rebs, 61% FG%!). After that, not much else going on with this team. Seriously, everyone else is below 10 ppg, below 5 rebounds, below 3 assits, and three bench guys shoot over 42% from 3. The most interesting thing is how well they shoot 3s (though no one person does all the damage)... and how well they defend 3-pointers. What's weird is that they don't defend 2-pointers well at all... in fact they are a poor defensive team overall.

UCLA, Sag #39, kenpom offense #76, kenpom defense #23, 2nd in conference at 13-5, 22-9
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: BYU, Arizona (split), St. John's
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Washington (sweep), Nova, VCU, Kansas, MONTANA, Cal (classic let-down game, after beating arizona by 20)
3P% - 32.9%, 3Pt defense - 34.1%, Reb. Margin = +4.0, FT 68.4%, FG 46.0%, Opp. FG 41.4% –
It's a very young team, hence the uneven play... though they've played better in the 2nd half. They are led by Reeves Nelson (6'8" sophomore, 14.2 ppg, 8.9 rebs, 58% FG%), Malcolm Lee (6'4" junior, 13.2 ppg, 43%FG%, 29% 3p%), Tyler Honeycutt (6'8" sophomore, 12.4 ppg, 7.4 rebs, 2 blocks, 40% FG%, 35% 3pt%), and PG Lazeric Jones (6'0" junior, 9.5 ppg, 3.6 assists, 36% 3p%, 39% FG%). It's a balanced attack... but as evidenced by their wins over BYU and St. John's, they can elevate their game. Also of note, they only lost to Kansas by 1. Their lack of rebounding could be a problem.

Washington, Sag #35, kenpom offense #9, kenpom defense #48, 3rd in conference at 11-7, 20-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: USC (split), UCLA (sweep), Arizona (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Kentucky (by 7), Mich St (by 5), Texas A&M (by 1)
3P% - 37.2%, 3Pt defense - 32.4%, Reb. Margin = +13.7, FT 66.5%, FG 47.2%, Opp. FG 41.6% –
All the computers love this team... probably because of the close losses early on. Led by the 'lil 5'8" Isaiah Thomas (16.6 ppg, 5.6 assits, 34% 3p%), who is still trying to clear his name from the evil Isiah Thomas. They also have Bryan-Amaning (6'9" senior, 16ppg, 8.3 rebs, 1.7 blocks, 56% FG%) and Justin Holiday (6'6" senior, 11.3 ppg, 5.2 rebs, 39% 3p%). They also have a 7'0" center, sophomore Aziz N'Diaye (4.8 ppg, 5.7 rebs, 1.3 blocks, 56%FG%). So... they are really just a large team with a little PG.

Belmont, Sag #33, kenpom offense #34, kenpom defense #20, 1st in conference at 19-1, 30-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: n/a
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Tennessee (twice!), Vanderbilt, Lipscomb
3P% - 38.1%, 3Pt defense - 32.8%, Reb. Margin = +3.5, FT 73.6%, FG 46.2%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
Classic small-conference team who hasn't played anyone. This is worse than Utah State, because they really haven't beaten anyone. Led by Ian Clark (12.4 ppg, 43.6 3p%), big-man Hedgepath (10.6 ppg, 6 rebs, 53% FG%), and big-man Saunders (10 ppg, 5.4 rebs, 51 FG%). They also have a 3-pt specialist in Jordan Campbell (8.4 ppg, 46% 3pt%). Interestingly, they have a 9-player rotation, where no one plays more than 25 mpg, and they are one of the best teams at creating turnovers, as well as being excellent 3-point shooters. The poor rebounding margin is not a good sign. In their 3 games against Tennessee and Vanderbilt, they were outrebounded 36-21, 39-25, but did outrebound Tenn 47-40 in the last game. So... bottom line, super 3-point team, super team at stealing, but no big men.

Geore Mason, Sag #26, kenpom offense #25, kenpom defense #39, 1st in conference at 16-2, 26-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Old Dominion (split), VCU (split), No. iowa?
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: NC St, Wofford, Dayton, Hofstra
3P% - 40.4%, 3Pt defense - 30.8%, Reb. Margin = +2.4, FT 69.6%, FG 47.5%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
This team has 3 3-point shooters, with a fourth coming off the bench. They are not good at rebounding though. They are led by Cam Long (6'4" senior, 15.1 ppg, 4.6 reb, 43.7% 3p%), Ryan Pearson (6'6" junior, 14.5 ppg, 6.8 rebs, 40.5% 3p%), Luke Hancock (6'5" sophomore 10.9 ppg, 4.4 assists), and Andre Cornelius (5'10" junior 10ppg, 39.7% 3p%). They are very efficient on offense, and play good team defense. The lack of a non-conference schedule makes them hard to predict.

Old Dominion, Sag #37, kenpom offense #78, kenpom defense #42, 2nd in conference at 14-4, 25-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Clemson, Xavier, Richmond, Dayton, G. Mason (split), VCU (split), Cleve St
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Georgetown, Delaware!, Missouri, Drexel
3P% - 32.6%, 3Pt defense - 36.9%, Reb. Margin = +11.4, FT 66.7%, FG 43.4%, Opp. FG 40.3% –
This team is the opposit of most any mid-major... they are one of the best rebounding teams in the country... and they suck at shooting 3s! They are led by F. Hassell (6'8" senior, 14.5 ppg, 9.8 rebs, 55%FG%), Kent Bazemore (6'5" junior 12.5 ppg, 5.1 rebs, 40.5% 3pt%, 2.3 steals). This team's performance will depend on the matchup, because they can get torched by good guard play (i.e. Georgetown, the running-style of Missouri). Interstingly, they knocked out Notre Dame last year in the 1st round... so be mindful of this team. It's also almost all seniors and juniors this year.

Xavier, Sag #31, kenpom offense #32, kenpom defense #54, 1st in conference at 15-1, 24-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Butler, Temple, Richmond, Georgia, Duquesne
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Old Dominion, Gonzaga, Florida, Cincy, MiamiOH!, Charlotte!
3P% - 33.3%, 3Pt defense - 33.2%, Reb. Margin = +4.8, FT 75.0%, FG 46.3%, Opp. FG 39.9% –
They are led by super junior, Tu Holloway (6'0", 20.1 ppg, 5.5 assists, 5.2 rebs, 34.6% 3p% , 43%FG%), Lyons (6'1" sophomore, 13.8 ppg, 41% FG%), big man Kenny Frease (7'0" junior, 11.9 ppg, 7.2 rebs, 54.7% FG%), and a 2nd big-man in Jamel McLean (6'8" senior, 10.8 ppg, 8.5 rebs, 54.6 FG%). Intestingly, against Gonzaga, Florida, and Cincy they were outrebounded 35-21, 38-30, and 34-24. Of course, Old Dominion also outrebounded them 33-23, but ODU, as said above, is awesome at rebounding. The more I see these numbers, this Xavier team may be the one that can't continue the streak of continuous sweet 16s (Xavier has made the sweet 16 3 straight years going into this one).

Temple, Sag #30, kenpom offense #53, kenpom defense #40, 2nd in conference at 14-2, 24-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Georgia, Maryland, Georgetwon, Richmond
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Cal, Texas A&M, Nova, Duquesne, Xavier, Duke
3P% - 35.1%, 3Pt defense - 34.5%, Reb. Margin = +3.4, FT 69.0%, FG 44.8%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
They are led by Razor Ramone Moore (6'4" junior, 14.8 ppg, 4.3 rebs, 39.8% 3p%, 43% FG%), Lavoy Allen (6'9" senior, 11.8 ppg, 8.2 reb, 48% FG%), and Scootie Randall (6'6" junior, 11.6 ppg, 5.1 rebs, 37% 3p%, 49% FG%). I'm not sure what to make of this team. They are not bad at anything, not terribly great at anything. They do play great defense though, and I love the great non-conference wins on their resume.

Big East - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2011

It's almost March... so it's time for more college basketball conference previews!

Pitt, Sag #4, kenpom offense #4, kenpom defense #20, 1st in conference at 13-2, 25-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Texas, Maryland, Duquesne, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Tennessee, Notre Dame, St. John's
3P% - 38.3%, 3Pt defense - 33.6%, Reb. Margin = +11.4, FT 66.3%, FG 47.5%, Opp. FG 40.1% –
Excellent resume, certain contender.
Led by Ashton Gibbs (6'2" junior, 16.4 ppg, 46.6% 3p%), Wanamaker (6'4" senior, 12.3 ppg, 5 assists, 5 rebs, 36.6% 3p%), and the big man is McGhee (6'10" senior, 7.3 ppg, 7.8 rebs, 1.4 blocks, 57% FG% (ken pom has him as a top-25 rebounder, and top-100 blocker)). Notably, Gibbs, the PG, missed 3 games with an MCL injury. During those 3 games, Pitt beat W. Va by 5, Nova by 3, and So. Florida. They then lost by 1 to St. John's when he returned. This team is certainly a team to consider for going far in the tourney.

Notre Dame, Sag #12, kenpom offense #7, kenpom defense #73, 2nd in conference at 11-4, 22-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Kentucky, Syracuse, Marquette, St Johns, W. Va
3P% - 37.7%, 3Pt defense - 36.0% (rank: 245), Reb. Margin = +4.8, FT 72.8%, FG 46.1%, Opp. FG 41.3% –
Notre Dame has had a great season out and in-conference. They play poor defense though. They are led by Ben Hnasbrough (6'3" senior, 17.9 ppg, 4 assists, 42% 3p%, 47% FG%), and Tim Abromaitis (6'8" senior, 14.6 ppg, 6.2 rebs, 40% 3p%, 45% FG%) and their big man is Carleton scott (6'7" senior, 11.5 ppg, 7.2 rebs, 1.8 blocks, 37% 3p%, 47% FG%).
So... if you like seniors, and a team that can purely outscore another team, this is a great team to cheer for. They play poor defense though, which is a concern, though we would need to look more into who they have defenseive breakdowns against.

Louisville, Sag #14, kenpom offense #43, kenpom defense #13, 3rd in conference at 10-5, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Butler, Syracuse, W. Va., UConn (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Drexel!, Kentucky, Villanova, Providence!, Cincy
3P% - 36.9%, 3Pt defense - 31.8% (rank: 49), Reb. Margin = +0.9, FT 66.0%, FG 45.9%, Opp. FG 40.1% –
This is another team that wasn't expected to do much, but has done surprisingly well. They are led by 6'1" senior Preston Knowles (14.5 ppg, 3.7 rebs, 40% 3p%, 38% FG%) and Siva (5'11" soph, 10.2 ppg, 5.0 assists) and Jennings is the big man (6'9" junior, 9.7 pts, 5.3 rebs, 1.9 blocks, 54% FG%). Interstingly, Knowles and Siva are both excellent at creating steals (1.9 and 2.2 per game respectively). However, this team doesn't do well in rebounding. Should be an interesting team to watch, since they clearly live on the 3-pointers with 3 other guys aside from Knowles shoting over 40% per game.

St. John's, Sag #25, kenpom offense #58, kenpom defense #22, 3rd in conference at 10-5, 18-9
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Georgetown, Notre Dame, Duke, Pitt, UConn
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure, Fordham!, UCLA, Cincy (split)
3P% - 33.0%, 3Pt defense - 36.4% (rank: 267), Reb. Margin = -0.5, FT 71.0%, FG 45.7%, Opp. FG 42.9% –
This has been my favorite team to follow in the scores all season. They've beaten 4 top-10 teams! They've also lost to two awful teams and St. Mary's, but that's before they started playing like mad men. This team was supposed to do nothing, but new coach Steve Lavin (former UCLA coach from 7 years ago) has them playing possessed. Also... this team has 10 seniors. Yes, TEN. How does that happen? Well, they had 10 juniors last season, but in 2008-2009 they "only" had 8 sophomores. That's because Hardy (JUCO transfer) and Brownlee (JUCO transfer) were added. In 2007-2008, they "only" had 7 freshmen, one of them being Rob Thomas who had a knee injury wipe him out for the 2006-2007 season (see page 52 of the media guide). I think this all stems back to 2003-2004, when due to a number of infractions, St. John's lost 7 of 15 players (along with most of the games).

Anyways, back to this team. Hardy has been awesome (6'2" senior, 17.3 ppg, 44.8% FG%, 34.8% 3p%). Brownlee (6'7" senior, 12.1 ppg, 5.1 rebs, 49.8% FG%) and Kennedy (6'6" senior, 10.5ppg, 5.7 rebs46.8 % FG%). They aren't big (they have a NEGATIVE rebounding margin!). It's really all about Hardy, going off some nights and the factd that they have a balanced attack. Let's be clear here though, they have no great 3-point shooters, they play poor defense... but they somehow win games (especially against good teams). It's puzzling, fascinating, and I can't wait to see who they get in the tourney, because a story about 10 seniors banding together and beating all expectations, is just an irresistable story.

Syracuse, Sag #11, kenpom offense #20, kenpom defense #19, 5th in conference at 10-6, 23-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Michigan, Mich St, Notre Dame, Villanova, UConn
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Pitt, Nova, Seton Hall, Marq, Georgetown, Louisville
3P% - 34.3%, 3Pt defense - 32.0%, Reb. Margin = +4.1, FT 65.8%, FG 46.7%, Opp. FG 39.2% –
This Syracuse team runs the zone defense well of course. They went through a bit of a lull but are playing better of late. They have a balanced attack led by Kris Joseph (6'7" junior, 14.7 ppg, 5 rebs, 37% 3p%), Rick Jackson (6'9" senior, 13.1 ppg, 11 rebs (ranked in the top 100 rebounders and blockers on kenpom), 58.8% FG%), Scoop Jardine (6'2" junior, 12.4 ppg, 5.9 assists, 33% 3p%), and Brandon Triche (6'4" sophomore, 11.4 ppg, 32% 3p%!). I think this team is intriguing at least.

Georgetown, Sag #10, kenpom offense #11, kenpom defense #48, 5th in conference at 10-6, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Old Dominion, Missouri, Villanova, Louisville, Syracuse,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Temple, St. John's, W. Va, Cincy, UConn
3P% - 37.5% (rank: 48), 3Pt defense - 32.7%, Reb. Margin = +2.9, FT 73.4%, FG 48.9%, Opp. FG 41.6% –
**The #1 issue with this team is that their PG, Chris Wright (6'1" senior, 13.1 ppg, 5.4 assists), is injured and may not return in time for March Madness. This issue should be checked on between now and the tourney.
Georgetown is a small team focused on three guards, one of which, Wright, who is injured. Austin Freeman (6'3" senior, 17.8 ppg, 40.6 3p%, 50.8% FG%) is the main cog, and the third man is Jason Clark (6'2" junior, 12 ppg, 4 rebs, 37.4% 3p%). The only big men are Vaughn (6'9" senior, 6.3 rebs, 2 blocks) and 6'7" Hollis Thompson (4.4 rebs). So... when healthy, they have a lot of guards, but they are a small team and will get destroyed on the inside.

Villanova, Sag #16, kenpom offense #17, kenpom defense #31, 7th in conference at 9-6, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UCLA, Temple, Cincy, Louisville, Maryland, Syracuse,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Tennessee, Providence, Rutgers, Uconn, Georgetown, PPitt
3P% - 34.6%, 3Pt defense - 29.6% (rank: 10), Reb. Margin = +6.1, FT 76.2%, FG 44.2%, Opp. FG 39.7% –
This team looks great on paper... but they have now lost 7 of their last 12 (and 4 of their last 6). They only have Notre Dame and Pitt left. I'm actually worried for how far this slide is going to hurt them. They are led by the 6'1" senior PG Corey Fisher (16ppg, 36% 3p%, 43% FG%, 5 asssits, 2.4 TOs) and 6'5" senior Corey Stokes (15ppg, 42% 3pointers). Their big men are Pena (6'8" senior, 7.5 rebs) and a 6'10" sophomore, Yarou (7.2 rebs). So... three of their best players are seniors. This team just needs to get its shit together, because on paper, it has all the tools it needs.

Cincy, Sag #15, kenpom offense #65, kenpom defense #8, 7th in conference at 9-6, 22-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Xavier, St Johns (split), Louisville, Georgtown
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Nova, Syracuse, ND, W. Va, Pitt, St Johns (split)
3P% - 34.4%, 3Pt defense - 31.8% (rank 38), Reb. Margin = +4.6, FT 65.8%, FG 43.3%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
They, along with W. VA, and Marquette, will be on the bubble until the end of the Big East tourney. This Cincy team only has the out-of-conference victory over Xavier, and then whatever they could get in the conference. They have no go-to-guy - with 5 guys averagin between 8.5 ppg, and 11.2 ppg! They seem to be sloppy with the ball, but shoot poorly, and play great defense to end up with some close games. They are ranked so highly in Sagarin right now, mainly because of the conference they are in, so it will be interesting to see where they are slotted. I wouldn't trust them at all if they made the tourney.

W. Virginia, Sag #20, kenpom offense #27, kenpom defense #35, 8th in conference at 8-7, 17-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Oakland, Duquesne, Cleve St, Purdue, Georgetown, ND
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Minnesota, Miami (FL), Marq, Marshall, Louisville,
3P% - 33.7%, 3Pt defense - 28.6% (rank: 6), Reb. Margin = +2.6, FT 69.6%, FG 43.2%, Opp. FG 41.1% –
This team has been interesting. They played a soft out of conference schedule. They somehow are great at stopping 3-pointers, but are not strong inside. They will probably be on the bubble until the end as well. They are led by Casey Mitchell (15.1 ppg, 38.7% 3p%, 6'2" junior) and Kevin Jones (12.6ppg, 6.9 rebs, 43% FG%, 6'8" junior).

UConn, Sag #17, kenpom offense #37, kenpom defense #32, 8th in conference at 8-7, 20-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Kentucky, Mich St, Texas, Tennessee, Georgetown
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Pitt, Louisville (twice), Syracuse, St Johns, Marq
3P% - 33.5%, 3Pt defense - 32.5%, Reb. Margin = +4.4, FT 73.1%, FG 42.7%, Opp. FG 39.2% –
They are led by 6'1" junior Kemba Walker. Walker averages a ridiculous 23 ppg, but on an awful 42.5% FG%, 35.5% 3pointers. He also chips in 5.3 rebs and 4.5 rebs. The 2nd option is Oriakhi, a 6'9" sophomore, averaging 10.4 ppg, 8.7 reb, 2.0 blocks. UConn is a strange team, as they weren't expected to even be good this year, but Kemba Walker played out of his mind to help them beat Kentucky, Mich St, Texas, and Tennessee out of conference. They have been stubmling of late, so they may be falling back down to earth. In the end, I'm not sure if Kemba Walker all on his own can really take them that far in the tourney, now that there's so much tape from the Big East on how to stop him. It's not like he can sneak up on people, as he kind of did at the start of the season.

Marquette, Sag #29, kenpom offense #14, kenpom defense #67, 8th in conference at 8-7, 17-11
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: W. Va, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Uconn (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Duke, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, St. John's, Georgetown
3P% - 35.3%, 3Pt defense - 34.9%, Reb. Margin = +2.5, FT 69.3%, FG 47.6%, Opp. FG 44.2% (ouch!) –
This team is still a bubble team, and will be all the way through the Big East Tourney, despite the great Sagarin ranking. Their numbers are not that great in any department, especially defensively. They are led by Johnson-Odom, a 6'2" junior, 16ppg, who shoots 35.6% from 3-point land and J. Butler, a 6'7" senior, 15.6 ppg, 6.2 rebs, 49% FG%.

Big 10 - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2011

As I sit here watching the Ohio State vs. Wisconsin game, I figure it's only suitable to provide a look at the Big 10 this week!

Ohio State, Sag #1, kenpom offense #3, kenpom defense #2, 1st in conference at 11-0, 24-0
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Florida, Fla. St, Purdue, Minnesota
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: None
3P% - 40.4%, Reb. Margin = +5.2, FT 68.5%, FG 49.6%, Opp. FG 41.5% –
Led by J. Sullinger (6'9" freshman 18 ppg, 10.2 reb, 56.8% FG%) and Buford (6'5" junior, 13.6ppg, 44% 3p%) and 5th-year senior Lighty (6'5", 12.5 ppg, 40.7% 3p%), and Diebler (6'6" senior, 11.2 ppg, 48% 3p% ). Perhaps more importantly, backup? freshman PG Aaron Craft has been sensational (4.6 assists, 28minutes per game). This team has been #1 and is highly regarded, and its the team I follow, so I will be keeping my eye on them all season long. Having a top-5 NBA talent in Sullinger (who is a bona fide PF, with back-to-the-basket moves) along with all of these 3 -point shooters makes OSU extremely dangerous. They also have another big body in Lauderdale, so its not like Sullinger can be complely focused on.

Wisconsin, Sag #11, kenpom offense #1, kenpom defense #36, 2nd in conference at 8-3, 18-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Marquette, Boston College, Illinois (split), Purdue, Minnesota
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UNLV, Notre Dame, Illinois (split), Mich St (split), Penn St
3P% - 37.7%, Reb. Margin = +3.9, FT 82.9% (that's amazing!), FG 44.6%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
Led by Jon Leuer (6'10" SENIOR, 19.4 ppg, 7.4 rebs, 44% 3point, 48% FG%) and Jordan Taylor (6'1" junior, 17.7 ppg, 4.7 assists, 41% 3p%). This Jon Leuer is awesome. The team doesn't rebound as great as most Wisconsin teams. What gives me some pause about this team are the losses to UNLV and Notre Dame, meaning they lost their toughest games out of conference.

Purdue, Sag #9, kenpom offense #20, kenpom defense #10, 2nd in conference at 8-3, 19-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Va. Tech, Alabama, Minnesota (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Richmond, W. Va., Minnesota (split), Ohio St, Wisconsin
3P% - 38.4%, Reb. Margin = +2.6, FT 71.7%, FG 45.4%, Opp. FG 41.3% –
If only Robbie Hummel was healthy... the other senior stars on this team (6'10" senior - JaJuan Johnson - 20.6 ppg, 7.6 rebs, 50% FG%; 6'4" senior - E'Twaun Moore - 17.8 ppg, 5.6 rbs, 39% 3pt) are fantastic. This team could be dangerous in the tourney... but probably nothing more than a sweet 16 appearance.

Illinois, Sag #24, kenpom offense #27, kenpom defense #17, 4th in conference at 6-5, 16-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Maryland, UNC, Gonzaga, Wisconsin,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Texas (in OT), Ill-Chicago!, Missouri, Penn St, Indiana, Northwestern
3P% - 40.4%, Reb. Margin = +2.1, FT 72.8%, FG 46.8%, Opp. FG 39.6% –
This team has been more Jekyl and Hyde then most. One atrocious loss (Ill-Chicago!), an awesome win (UNC), and a close call (Texas). I saw their star player against OSU (6'3" senior - G Demetri McCarney 14.8ppg, 6.6 assists, 3 TOs, 47.6% 3pt%) but he got outclassed by the freshman PG Craft and the OSU defense. Mike Davis (6'9" senior - 11.5ppg, 6.8 rebs, 52% FG%) also is the other main contributor then they have 4 guys between 8 and 9 ppg.

Michigan State, Sag #40, kenpom offense #49, kenpom defense #58, 5th in conference at 6-6, 14-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Washington, Wisconsin,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UConn, Duke, Syracuse, Texas, Penn St, IOWA!
3P% - 36.1%, Reb. Margin = +3.8, FT 68.9% , FG 44.0%, Opp. FG 42.9% –
PG Kore Luciuos has been kicked off the team. The team has gone from being ranked #2 in the nation at the start of the season (since they were returning everyone from last year's final 4 team), to being barely above .500 and in serious danger of not making the tourney. They are still led by Kalin Lucas (6'1" senior - 16.2 ppg, 3.5 assists, 40.7% 3p); Draymond Green (6'7" junior - 13.2 ppg, 8.5 rebs, 4.2 assists, 38.8% 3p); Durrell Summers (6'5" senior - 13.2 ppg, 4.3 rebs, 37.8% 3p%). I honestly don't know what to make of this team after all of the awful performances... in past years, Michigan State would snag a 10-seed and still make a run to the elite 8... then there wer other years they'd get bounced in the 1st round in that situation. Your guess is as good as mine on this.

Minnesota, Sag #35, kenpom offense #40, kenpom defense #72, 6th in conference at 5-7, 16-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNC, W. Va, Purdue (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Virginia, Indian, Mich St,
3P% - 32.9%, Reb. Margin = +5.0, FT 64.9%, FG 46.1%, Opp. FG 39.7% –
What started as a promising season for Minnesota, has become unraveled due to injuries. Starting senior PG Al Nolen broke his foot and had surgery, and is just praying he returns for the tournament. His backup just happened to transfer earlier in the season... meaning freshmen are now manning the PG spot (and not playing well). The team is led by Hoffarber (6'4" senior - 14 ppg, 3.9 assists, 39.6% 3p); Mbakwe (6'8" junior - 13.2ppg, 10.6 rebs, 61% FG%); D. Joseph (6'4" junior - 11ppg, 38% 3p).

Penn State, Sag #73, kenpom offense #31, kenpom defense #129, 6th in conference at 5-7, 12-11
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Illinois, Wisconsin
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Ole Miss, Maine, Michigan (twice), Va. Tech, Maryland
3P% - 31.8%, Reb. Margin = +1.6, FT 72.4%, FG 43.0%, Opp. FG 44.0% –
I thought at the beginning of big 10 season they might have a chance to squeak out a bid. I know now from looking at their profile, it ain't going to hapen short of a miraculous run to end the season.

Conclusion
For the Big 10 to have 6 bids now, Minnesota needs to survive without their PG, and Michigan state needs to get some wins. For Penn State to grab an unreal SEVENTH bid, EVERYTHING would have to go right. I'd keep an eye on the inconsistent Illinois, and I'm not sure how far Wisconsin can actually go.

Big 12 - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2010

This is the odd week off before the Super Bow. So... I'm going to finally start posting info on some of the NCAA-worthy teams from the Big 12 this week, then in the coming weeks I'll tackle the Big East, Big Ten, and then a Pot-Luck focusing on A-10, SEC, PAC-10, and the Mountain West, and some randoms.

Kansas, Sag #2, kenpom offense #13, kenpom defense #4, 2nd in conference at 4-1, 19-1
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UCLA, Arizona, Memphis, USC (surprisingly, pretty weak!, plus a lot of close wins over Michigan and Nebraska)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Texas
3P% - 37.3%, Reb. Margin = +7.3, FT 67.1% (that's low!), FG 51.4%, Opp. FG 38.5% –
Led by Marcus Morris (6'9" junior 17ppg, 6.8 rebs, 59.7% FG%) and twin brother Markief Morris (6'10" junior, 12.6ppg, 8.6 rebs, 55.9% FG%). Freshman Josh Selby has only played in 11 games so far, with mixed results (11.8 ppg, 3 assts, 2.9 turnovers, 40% 3pt). This team has been #1 and is highly regarded, but I'm not sold on them... we will have to see what they do when they start facing the rest of the big 12.

Texas, Sag #6, kenpom offense #26, kenpom defense #1, 1st in conference at 4-0, 16-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Illinois, UNC, Mich St, Texas A&M, Kansas
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Pitt, USC, UConn
3P% - 37.9%, Reb. Margin = +7.4, FT 66.1% (that's awful!), FG 46.0%, Opp. FG 37.0% –
Jordan Hamilton leads the team (6'7" junior, 19.5ppg, 7.2 rebs, 41.7% 3pt, 47% FG%). Two other forwards lead the team (T. Thompson 6'8" freshman, 13.1ppg, 7.6 rebs, and Gary Johnson 6'6" senior, 11.8 ppg, 6.9 rebs). They played a killer schedule and already won in Kansas. I like this team... except they have a freshman PG (Cory Joseph) and they may be deferring to Jordan Hamilton a little too much. Being ranked #1 in defense by ken-pom is certainly a great attribute (and surprising too).

Texas A&M, Sag #19, kenpom offense #34, kenpom defense #46, 2nd in conference at 4-1, 17-2
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Temple, Washington (by 1), Missouri
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Boston College, Texas
3P% - 35.7%, Reb. Margin = +10.5, FT 72.4%, FG 45.1%, Opp. FG 39.9% –
A balanced scoring attack, led by only one player, Krhis Middleton (6'7" sophomore, 15.9 ppg, 4.8 rebs, 40% 3p%, 49% FG%). What's bizzare about this team? No one over 6'8" plays many minutes... but they are a great rebounding team. Can't tell if it's the schedule, or what's going on. A team to check back with as the season progresses.

Missouri, Sag #20, kenpom offense #27, kenpom defense #29, 4th in conference at 3-2, 17-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Vanderbilt, Illinois, Old Dominion,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Georgetown, Colorado, Texas A&M
3P% - 38.2%, Reb. Margin = +1.6, FT 71.1%, FG 47.5%, Opp. FG 40.9% –
They have yet to play Texas or Kansas (twice), so we will soon see how tough they really are. I always love the Missouri coach, who plays the "40 minutes of hell" style as a disciple of Nolan Richardson. He used to be the coach at UAB (and was the coach when they shocked #1 Kentucky in the 2nd round). The team is led by Marcus Denmon (6'3" jr, 17.2ppg, 4 reb, 49.1% 3pointers!), and two bigs in Ricardo Ratliffe (6'8" junior, 11.8 ppg, 7 rebs, 1.6 blocks) and Laurence Bowers (6'8" junior, 11.4 ppg, 6.2 rebs, 2.2 blocks). The ppg is Michael Dixson (6'1" sophomore, 4.6 assists, 2 turnovers, 19.9 ppg, 38% 3p%). We will have to see how they do in conference play. 40 minutes of hell works with the right players, no doubt.

Kansas State, Sag #41, kenpom offense #87, kenpom defense #33, 10th in conference at 2-4, 14-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Va. Tech, Gonzaga, Baylor?
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Duke, Florida, UNLV, Ok St, Colorado, Missouri, Texas A&M
3P% - 36.6%, Reb. Margin = +8.8, FT 60.6% (really!), FG 43.8%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
This team has annoyed me. I enjoyed their run to the Elite 8 last year... but they lost one of the two major backcourt players behind that push. They've been a mess and have dug a deep hole for themselves... especially considering the expectations that they were in the top-3 in the conference. Jacob Pullen has been shooting awful this year (6'0" senior, 17.9 ppg, 2.8 turnovers, 3.5 assists, 32% 3pointeers, 41% 3p%). Rodney McGruder is their next best contributor (6'4" sophomore, 11.2 ppg, 6.7 rebs, 40.5% 3pt). He should shoot more, especially with Pullen screwing things up. Alot of players log minutes, resulting in a big rebounding advantage. Two 6'8 guys, a 6'9 guy, and a 6'10" guy. They have depth... but the offense is still a mess with Pullen shooting way too much.

Final 4 of Insanity!

It's been absolute insanity this year... we have two 5-seeds squaring off for what I believe is the first time. We have the weakest #1-seed and a 2-seed joining the party as well. The top 3-most popular choices for national champion (Kansas, Kentucky, and Syracuse) are all long gone.

So, let's take a look at the matchups, keeping in mind that none of these teams have faced any of each other this season.

As shown by my "analysis" the last two weeks... I have no idea what's going to happen. I had Butler and Michigan State as teams that were doomed last week... and now one of them is playing for the championship!

So, instead, let's just focus on some of the interesting stories from this year's tournament... like the fact that Butler is playing in Indy, which is where their school is located... and the fact that their head coach (Brad Stevens) is only 33... and this is his third year coaching!... the fact that Tom Izzo has now taken Michigan State to their SIXTH final 4 in 12 years (as a 1 (three times), as a 2, and now as a 5 (twice!).

My favorite, and scariest, part of this tournament relates to clips of Kansas State coach Frank Martin. a) He looks like an axe murderer. b) He sounds like he's going to physically harm his players. While I couldn't find a good video of Frank Martin, here are some great images of him freaking out.



Even better, is this video of his players describing what he's like and how he calls timeouts just to chew out his players.

Sweet 16 - Upset City!

What's funny? Last year... I was writing how 14 of the top 16 teams made it through... this year? Only 8 of the top 16 teams made it through... including the fall of the heavy favorite, Kansas.

The thing that says the most about this year's tournament... my bracket at work has 10 sweet 16 teams... and that puts me in first place! For perspective, 10 teams is usually average looking back at past year's performances. Flipping coins will get you 8. 11 teams is usually really good, and anything above 11 is sensational... usually. This year? 11 makes you a genius!

Some notes:

Indiana University Transfers
Jamal Crawford - Xavier - Star player in the sweet 16!
Ben Allen - St. Mary's - Role player for St. Mary's... in the sweet 16!
Armon Bassett - Ohio University - Bassett had dominated the MAC Tourney, had shredded Georgetown, but Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl had the perfect plan to stop Bassett... double team him on the perimeter when he gets the ball. Bassett could not get free the entire game and I sadly waited the entire game for the Ohio coach too make an adjustment to get Bassett the ball off a screen (Rip Hamilton style) or run any kind of motion and passing to free up Bassett. Never happened. We were so close to all 3 Indiana transfers making it. It's too bad the IU coach messed up everything. An IU team with these 3 players could have certainly made the sweet 16 this year!

Big East Bubble Burst
In so many ways, it was like the dot-com stock bubble burst. The Big East had a sensational year last year, landing three #1 seeds and two #3 seeds, and four teams in the Elite 8. Before the season began, everyone knew it was going to be a transition year for the entire conference as most of the players from those teams either graduated or went to the NBA. Thus, the conference has very young teams... and most of the teams were maddingly inconsistent. I got sucked into the artificially high ranking of the Big East (2nd according to Sagarin before the tourney). The ranking was clearly due more to its depth (16-team league w/ 13 good teams this year). However, 6 Big East teams got "upset" and crashed out early, including shocking losses from Georgetown to Ohio U., Notre Dame to Old Dominion, Marquette getting stomped on by Washington, and Villanova getting smashed by St. Mary's.

Non-Power Conference Team Notes
Cornell - very interested to see them take on Kentucky. They are disciplined, shoot 44% from 3-point land (as a TEAM!), and have a 7-footer and a 6'8" PF. Cornell & Kentucky were 2 of the more dominant teams the first weekend and their game next week should be a trea.
St. Mary's - 7-footer Omar Samhan's dominance, as well as the beautiful high arcing 3-pointers of McConnell, were a beauty to watch in the 1st two rounds. Baylor, according to SI, has 4 big men that can go one-on-one with Samhan. So... we will see soon enough what Samhan can really do, because honestly neither Richmond or Villanova had competent or even comparable big men to battle Samhan.
Butler - After watching Butler's first two game, I don't believe they have the big men to continue their run. Big man Matt Howard got in foul trouble against Murray State and they barely survived. Against Syracuse??? Forget it.
Northern Iowa - not only did they beat Kansas... but they now get Michigan State who is missing their best player! Pencil them in for the elite 8!
Xavier - Jordan Crawford has been a joy to watch... but they have an insane matchup against a highly skilled tandem from Kansas State.

March Madness 2010 - Instaneous Analysis

Last year, I crunched a lot of numbers before the Madness begins, pertaining to the performance of power-conference teams that win or are runner-ups in their conference tournaments.

Favorite team based on profiles -
In 2007, I started doing profiles of the top conferences before the tourney begins.

In 2007, I adopted Maryland as my favorite statistical profile... and they lost in the 2nd round.
In 2008, I adopted Notre Dame as my favorite statistical profile... and they lost in the 2nd round.
In 2009, I adopted BYU (lost in 1st round) and West Virginia (lost in 1st round).
So... this year? I'm adopting Baylor. I hope it's not a death sentence! But, they have a manageable draw at least.

Best 1st round matchup -
Oklahoma State vs. Georgia Tech - The NBA scouts will be at this game for sure with Ok State's James Anderson (projected #20) and G-Tech's Derrick Favors (projected #4 pick) and Gani Lawal (projected #29). The NBA scouts will love to stick around for the 2nd round game against Ohio State and Evan Turner (projected #2 pick).

Most anticipated 2nd round matchup -
So far, only 3 of my 7 anticipated matchups have happened.
In 2009, my anticipated matchups were Syracuse vs. Arizona State (which did happen), and West Virginia vs. Kansas (which didn't happen, because 11-seeded Dayton knocked out West Virginia).
In 2008, my anticipated matchups included two: Indiana vs UNC (where Indiana lost badly in the 1st round to Arkansas) and Notre Dame and Washington State (which actually did happen).
In 2007 my “anticipated” matchup actually happened [Boston College vs. former Big East rival Georgetown], but 2007’s 2nd round matchups were relatively weak.
In 2006, my matchup [Mich. St. vs. UNC] never happened as George Mason wiped out Mich. St. then UNC.
In 2005, I didn’t specifically anoint one matchup, but I alluded to the Kansas-Wisconsin game, but Bucknell took out Kansas in the 1st round to prevent that from happening.
This year, I've got Georgetown vs. Tennessee as the matchup to see. Tennessee has beaten Kentucky and Kansas this year, so they are capable of playing at a high level.

Darkhorse - BYU - A 7-seed this year... last year I also listed them as a darkhorse. This year, I like their chances even more. As proof of their potential, they are ranked #9 in Sagarin ratings (compared to only #23 last year). They are also ranked #7 in Ken-Pomeroy ratings.
Ok. St/G-Tech winner - See above
Texas A&M - I don't know much about them, but I do know if they get out of the 1st round, they probably draw Purdue (missing their best player) and a Duke team (susceptible to good PG play?). A&M has been missing PG Dash Harris. His healthy return could spur a huge run.

Region of Death- No doubt, it's the Midwest region (Kansas's). It's just vicious. As said OkState and G-Tech have NBA players. Ohio State has Evan Turner. Maryland and Michigan State can meet in the 2nd round... as can Georgetown and Tennessee. 2 of the mid-majors that have been ranked this season (UNLV and Northern Iowa) meet in the 1st round... and then get a crack at Kansas! I have no idea what to do with this region. Too bad the NCAA doesn't check that their "S-curve" doesn't screw over the top overall seed... like it did this year!

Cinderella Final 4 Team - I'm historically bad at this... (2009 - W. Virginia - lost in 1st; 2008 - USC - lost in 1st; 2007 - Maryland - lost in 2nd; 2006 - UCLA - 2-seed, made Final 4; 2005 - Utah - 6-seed, made Sweet 16).
This year, I'm going with: 3-seeded Baylor. It's kind of a cop-out because Duke sucks and Villanova has been on a slide the 2nd half.

Rule #1: All (4) 1-seeds will NOT make Final4 -
Duke will not make it this year. I could see the other (3) 1-seeds making it... or absolute carnage happening.

Rule#4: A 12-seed always beats a 5 (except in 2000 and 2007)-
As has become the norm, the NCAA would much rather let mid-majors battle each other as opposed to having a bigger school get taken down. This year, Butler-UTEP and Temple-Cornell are 5-12 matchups where anything can happen. It's really scary, because UTEP was ranked this past week and still landed a 12-seed. Cornell is the best 3-point shooting team in the country (43.4%), which I assume will also translate to the tourney.

Rule#6: There always is one conference w/ multiple teams in the final4 (except in 2007 and 2008) – My favorite options:
Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Baylor (Big 12)
Kansas, Syracuse, West Virginia, Duke (Big East)
Georgetown, Kansas St, West Virginia, Duke (Big East)
Tennessee, Syracuse, Kentucky, Baylor (SEC)
Ohio St, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Duke (Big 10)

Rule#9: If you win your power conference tourney, you won't do well in the NCAA tourney. (Exception: top 10 teams):

In 2005, one team lost in the 1st round, the other in the 2nd round
In 2006, all 3 that qualified got bounced in the 1st round.
In 2007, one team qualified [Oregon], but they made the elite 8. I still say Oregon had an easy draw though.
In 2008, Pitt (Big East) and Georgia (SEC) are the only teams that qualified. Georgia only had a 14-seed and got bounced by Xavier. Pitt got a 4-seed and was upset by Michigan State in the 2nd round.
In 2009, 4 teams qualified: Purdue (sweet 16), Missouri (elite 8), USC (2nd round), and Miss St. (1st round loser as 13-seed).
This year, we have: Washington (PAC-10). They are an 11-seed and I expect them to lose to Marquette.

NBA Notes... and buildup to the Madness!

Okay, I'm back on regular programming now. First off, let's tackle notable games from the NBA:

NBA Games of the Week -
Dallas beat ATL on 2/26 in OT behind a triple double by Jason Kidd, and a superior rebounding advantage (50-41). ; The Lakers beat Denver on 2/28 by going 8 for 16 behind the arc with Artest showing old form and hitting 4 of 7; JR Smith went 1 for 7 (but Kobe was only 3 for 17 in the game); Denver destroyed OKCity by 29 on 3/3 as they owned every statistical category; Orlando edged the Lakers on 3/7 by having a rebounding advantage (50-39) and Vince Carter hitting 13 of 14 FTs.

This week:
Lakers @ Suns - 3/12
Boston @ Cleveland - 3/14
Utah @ OKCity - 3/14

NCAA - Championship Week -
-As usual, it's basketball 24-7 from here until Selection Sunday. Let's check in on the bubble teams with something to play for:
Currently, ESPN's last 4 in are: Memphis?, Arizona State?, San Diego State, and Illinois. The last 4 out are: Washington, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, and Ole Miss?. SI.com has Memphis, Ariz State, OUT and instead has Seton Hall and Ole Miss IN. Seton Hall got beat down by Notre Dame tonight... so they will have to sweat it out. It's funny, because I didn't realize they were a legitimate contender so I didn't even analyze them last weekend. Oh well!

-I think the funniest thing is how the PAC-10 is probably going to be... a 1-bid league! To say it's a down year is an understatement.

-One of the strangest phenomenons going on right now? It's Notre Dame... these guys have been playing amazingly since Harangody tweeked his knee. Then tonight, Harangody came back... and they still won. I'm really not sure what to make of it all. His teammates are really good and need to get more involved I think.

Big East and Pot Luck - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2010

Big East, and Pot Luck!

The Big East - Syracuse is an elite team. 'Nova is a great team, but has been struggling at the end here. People should also keep an eye on West Virginia and Georgetown.

Syracuse, Sag #2, kenpom offense #8, kenpom defense #15, 1st in conference at 15-2, 28-2
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNC, Cornell, Florida, W. Virginia, Georgetown (twice), Villanova
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Pitt, Louisville(in both games the Orange had a good number of turnovers and rebounding was about even, and most importantly, the Orange only shot like 41 or 42% in each of those games)
3P% - 38.3%, Reb. Margin = +4.1, FT 67.4%, FG 51.8%, Opp. FG 39.1% –
PF Wesley Johnson leads the way (15.6ppg, 1.9blocks, 8.6reb, 38% 3p%, 49% FG%), Rautins is the PG (11.9ppg, 4.8assists, 2.6turnovers, 41% 3p%), and 3 other forwards pick up the rest of the balanced scoring (6'7", 6'9", and 6'9"). It's a really big team, w/ another bench player that shoots 46% from 3-point land. It's a superior team, that plays great defense and has all the credentials to go all way.

Villanova, Sag #7, kenpom offense #5, kenpom defense #59, 2nd in conference at 13-4, 24-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Dayton, Maryland, Marquette, Georgetown (split), W. Virginia,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Temple, Georgetown, UConn, Pitt, Syracuse
3P% - 37.5%, Reb. Margin = +5.4 , FT 75.4%, FG 46.5%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
Scottie Reynolds leads the way (6'2" senior - 18.9ppg, 42% 3p%, 3.4 assists), Corey Fisher (6'1" junior - 13.7ppg, 4 assists, 38% 3p%), and big man Pena (6'8" junior - 11.1 ppg, 7.4rebs, 57% FG%). Defense isn't great... but they are a solid team, for sure.

West Virginia, Sag #6, kenpom offense #6, kenpom defense #33, 3rd in conference at 12-5, 23-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Marquette, Ohio St, Pitt (split), Georgetown,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Purdue (w/ Hummel), Notre Dame, Syracuse, Nova, Pitt, UConn
3P% - 34.8%, Reb. Margin = +6.8, FT 69.6%, FG 43.9%, Opp. FG 43.1% –
They have a powerful front line - Da'Sean Butler (6'7" senior - 17.1ppg, 6.1rebs, 35% 3p%), Jones (6'8" sophomore -13.7ppg, 7.4rebs, 41% 3p%), and Ebanks (6'9" sophomore - 12.ppg, 8.4rebs). This team is dangerous... against Ohio St they were down 15 and won by like 20. Scary.

Pitt, Sag #24, kenpom offense #41, kenpom defense #36, 3rd in conference at 12-5, 23-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Syracuse, UConn, W. Virginia (split), Villanova
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Texas, Indiana!, Seton Hall, So. Florida, Notre Dame
3P% - 34.3%, Reb. Margin = +4.5 , FT 69.3%, FG44.6%, Opp. FG 39.8% –
Maclolm Delaney (20.4ppg, 4.1 assists, 30.3% 3p% ! (he takes 6 per game!); Dorenzo Hudson (14.2ppg, 3.6 rebs, 28.7% 3p% ! (he takes 3.6 per game!);
Ashton Gibbs leads the team (6''2" sophmore -16.3 ppg, 39.9% 3p%), McGhee is the big man (6'10" junior - 7.3ppg, 7rebs, 1.8 blocks), and Wanamaker the PG (6'4" junior - 12ppg, 4.7assists, 5.8rebs).

Marquette, Sag #21, kenpom offense #15, kenpom defense #40, 5th in conference at 11-6, 20-9
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Xavier, Georgetown, UConn
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Florida St, NC St, Wisconsin, W. Virginia, Nova (twice), DePaul!,
3P% - 40.8%, Reb. Margin = +0.4 , FT 74.3%, FG 45.5%, Opp. FG 44.3% –
After losing three guards last year to graduation and/or the NBA, I thought Marquette would be bad. I was wrong. They have a solid team with Lazar Hayward (6'6" senior -18ppg, 8 rebs), Butler (6'6" junior - 15.2ppg, 6.5 rebs,), and Johnson-Odom (6'2" sophomore -13ppg, 48.9% 3p% ! wow!), and Acker (5'8" senior - 8.6ppg, 47.7% 3p%! wow!). They don't rebound well or play defense, but they will shoot the lights out!

Louisville, Sag #35, kenpom offense #19, kenpom defense #81, 6th in conference at 10-7, 19-11
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UConn (twice), Syracuse, Notre Dame
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UNLV, Charlotte, W. Carolina, Kentucky, Seton Hall, St. John's
3P% - 33.6%, Reb. Margin = +2.2 , FT 70.7%, FG 44.7%, Opp. FG 43.0% –
Samuels (6'9" sophomore -15.5ppg, 7.1 rebs,) and Sosa (6'2" senior - 12.9ppg, 4.4assists, 37.4% 3p%) lead this team that doesn't play defense, but did beat Syracuse.

Georgetown, Sag #18, kenpom offense #22, kenpom defense #47, 7th in conference at 9-8, 19-9
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Temple, Butler, UConn, Pitt, Duke, Nova,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Old Dominion, Marquette, So. Florida, Rutgers!, Notre Dame
3P% - 39.4%, Reb. Margin = +2.1 , FT 70.4%, FG 49.9%, Opp. FG 41.5% –
They've lost a LOT of games to end the season (4 out of 5 heading into saturday's game! ); Austin Freeman (6'3" junior - 17ppg, 3.6 rebs, 47% 3p%!), Greg Monroe (6'11", 247 lbs?, sophomore - 15.9ppg, 9.4 rebs, 1.6 blocks); 14.1 ppg, 4.0assists, ), ; Jason Clark (6'2" sophmore - 10.3ppg, 3.7 rebs, 43.4% 3p%). Monroe is an NBA draft pick. These guys are real up-and-down and w/ the right matchups, could do some damage in the tourney.

Notre Dame, Sag #50, kenpom offense #2, kenpom defense #198, 7th in conference at 9-8, 20-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: W. Virginia, Pitt, Georgetown
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Northwestern, Loyola Marymount!, Cincy, Rutgers!, Seton Hall!, St. John's!
3P% - 40.8%, Reb. Margin = +3.8, FT 72.8%, FG 47.7%, Opp. FG 43.9% –
Luke Harangody (knee injury) may or may not be healthy for the tourney (24.1ppg, 10.0 rebs). They actually play better w/o him as scary as that sounds - knocking off Pitt, Georgetown, AND UConn! Hansbrough (6'3" senior - 12.3ppg, 4.6 assists, 43.3% 3p%), Abromaitis (6'8" junior - 17.1 ppg, 4.8rebs, 46.5% 3p%!), Nash (6'8" junior - 7.9ppg, 5.3 rebs), have all stepped it up. Their defense is laughable... but it's probably better w/o the slow-footed Harangody?!?

Pot Luck!

SEC - Kentucky is an elite team, but it's hard to get a read on the inconsistent play of Vandy and Tennessee.

Kentucky, Sag #4, kenpom offense #20, kenpom defense #12, 1st in conference at 13-2, 28-2
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNC, UConn, Louisville, Vandy, Ole Miss, Tennessee (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Tennessee, South Carolina
3P% - 34.6%, Reb. Margin = + 9.1, FT 68.2%, FG 47.8%, Opp. FG 38.2% –
One of 3 teams set for a 1-seed (Kansas and Syracuse are the others). Everyone talks about freshman PG John Wall - 6'4" PG - he's fast as hell w/ the ball or w/o the ball. 17ppg, 6.2 assists, 4 turnovers, but Demarcus Cousins is extremely important (6'11" freshman - 15.9ppg, 10.1rebs, 1.8blocks), as is Patrick Patterson (6'9" junior - 15 ppg, 7.6rebs, 1.3 blocks). Clearly, it's a team that has the horses to go all the way w/ the big men, and the potential #1 NBA pick (Wall).

Vanderbilt, Sag #17, kenpom offense #14, kenpom defense #58, 2ndin conference at 12-3, 23-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Arizona, Missouri, Tennessee (twice),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Kentucky (twice), Cincy, Illinois, W. Kentucky, Georgia
3P% - 36.1%, Reb. Margin = +0.5 , FT 72.3%, FG 47.7%, Opp. FG 40.9% –
Led by 4 scorers in a balanced attack, including 2 3-point shooters. Ogilvy is the big man (6'11" junior) but only gets 6.2 rebs per game. This is an interesting team, but the front line may be a bit soft.

Tennessee, Sag #25, kenpom offense #87, kenpom defense #13, 3rd in conference at 10-5, 22-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Kansas, Ole Miss, Kentucky (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Vandy (twice), Purdue, USC, Georgia, Florida
3P% - 32.7%, Reb. Margin =+0.6 , FT 66.4%, FG 46.0%, Opp. FG 39.3% –
Tyler Smith got booted from the team in January... but they've held up since then including beating Kentucky.. They struggle to shoot and score and rely on defense to give them points. Led by Scotty Hopson (6'7" sophomore - 13.1ppg, 3.5rebs, 36% 3p%) and Chism (6'9" junior -12.8ppg, 6.9rebs, 1.5blocks). Most amazingly, they beat Kansas WITHOUT Tyler Smith and with Chism in foul trouble.

Atlantic 10 Conference - ESPN has them slated for 3 locks... with probably Rhode Island also making it! They are one of the benefactors of the 1-bid PAC-10! However, Temple and Xavier are the class of the conference, I'm not certain either team can make it to sweet 16 weekend.

Temple, Sag #22, kenpom offense #95, kenpom defense #5, 1st in conference at 13-2, 25-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Siena, Va Tech, Nova, Xavier, Rhode Island (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Georgetown, St. John's, Kansas (by 30), Charlotte, Richmond
3P% - 33.8%, Reb. Margin = +4.9 , FT 68.7%, FG 43.0%, Opp. FG 38.0% –
I'm not overly impressed w/ this team... they struggle to score and that would seem to be a problem in the tourney! One win at most? They play top-5 defense though. Led by Ryan Brooks (6'4" senior - 14.5 ppg, 4.6rebs, 32% 3p%) , Fernandez (6'4" sophomore -12.4ppg, 3.4assists, 45% 3p%), and Allen (6'9" junior - 11.7ppg, 11.0reb, 1.5blocks).

Xavier, Sag #16, kenpom offense #18, kenpom defense #38, 1st in conference at 13-2, 22-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Cincy, Dayton (split), Richmond, Rhode Island
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Marquette, Baylor, Kansas St, Butler, Wake, Temple, Dayton (split)
3P% - 37.5%, Reb. Margin = +5.3 , FT 70.8%, FG 46.8%, Opp. FG 40.6% –
The numbers look good... but they pretty much lost to every NCAA team they faced outside the A-10! Only the Butler and Wake games were close...
Led by Jordan Crawford though (6'4" sophomore - 19.6ppg, 3.0 assists, 4.7rebs, 39.6% 3p%), a big man (Jason Love - 6'9" 265 lbs senior - 11.8ppg, 8.6rebs, 1.6blocks, 59% FG%), and a PG (Holloway - 6'0" sophomore - 11.4ppg, 3.8assists, 31% 3p%). Also have two extra 3-point shooters off the bench. Could be an interesting team maybe?

Richmond, Sag #41, kenpom offense #92, kenpom defense #26, 3rd in conference at 12-3, 23-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Missouri, Old Dominion, Florida, Temple, Rhode Island, Dayton
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: William & Mary!, VCU, So Carolina, Wake, St Louis, Charlotte, Xavier
3P% - 34.8%, Reb. Margin = -5.3 , FT 69.9%, FG 44.6%, Opp. FG 38.8% –
Everyone shoots 3s on this team... just not well! They have the worst rebounding advantage out of any team... they seemed to have done well in conference play at least... led by Kevin Anderson (6'0" junior - 17.6ppg, 32.6% 3p%) and David Gonzalez (6'4" senior guard -13.8ppg, 36% 3p%).

Rhode Island, Sag #54, kenpom offense #27, kenpom defense #140, 5th in conference at 9-6, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Ok St, Dayton,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: VCU, Temple (twice), Xavier, Richmond, St. Louis, St. Bonaventure
3P% - 33.0%, Reb. Margin = -1.5 , FT 71.3%, FG 45.5%, Opp. FG 38.8% –
Losers of 4 of 6 entering last game... led by 2 scorers who shoot awful from 3-point land... can't play defense or rebound... i'm not wasting anymore words on them.

Mountain West Conference - maybe slightly below the A-10, but they have 3 solid NCAA teams here! The back end of the conference is terrible. New Mexico gets all the headlines based on sweeping BYU... but BYU's profile is amazing and might be the more dangerous team.

New Mexico, Sag #23, kenpom offense #23, kenpom defense #73, 1st in conference at 14-2, 28-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Dayton, BYU (twice), UNLV (split), San Diego st (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Oral Roberts!, San Diego St, UNLV
3P% - 37.9%, Reb. Margin = +5.9 , FT 66.8%, FG 44.0%, Opp. FG 42.1% –
An incredible record, and the team tends to win all the close games. They don't know how to play defense, but they are in line to be a very high-seed as of now (Stewart Mandel has them in his top-5!). I think their lack of defense will be a problem. Sweet 16 is best-case scenario, one-win most likely scenario. Led by Hobson (6'7" junior -15.8ppg, 4.6assists, 9.1 rebs, 38% 3P%), Martinez (6'6" senior - 14.1 ppg, 6.3 rebs, 43% 3p%) and another PG Dairese Gary (6'1" junior - 12.4ppg, 4.0 assists, 1.7TOs)

BYU, Sag #9, kenpom offense #12, kenpom defense #14, 2nd in conference at 12-3, 27-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Arizona, Arizona St, UNLV (split), San Diego (Twice),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Utah St, New Mexico (twice), UNLV (split)
3P% - 41.5%, Reb. Margin = +5.3 , FT 77.7%, FG 48.4%, Opp. FG 39.7% –
This team's numbers are great. Haven't played any super teams this year, but they shoot 3s, rebound well, and play great defense. Top-15 in both offense and defense in KenPom means they are very balanced and dangerous.
Led by Jimmer Fredette (6'2" junior - 20.7ppg, 4.7assists, 47.8% 3p%), two other 3-point shooters, and 4 guys who all get 5 rebounds per game, this is a sleeper team I really like!

UNLV, Sag #38, kenpom offense #36, kenpom defense #39, 3rd in conference at 10-5, 22-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Louisville, Arizona, New Mexico (twice0, BYU (split), San Diego (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Kansas St, USC< Utah (twice?!?),
3P% - 33.1%, Reb. Margin = -0.7 , FT 72.0%, FG 46.2%, Opp. FG 39.9% –
They don't rebound well or shoot well, but play defense. They still need help to make the tourneys and/or a deep run in the Mtn West. Led by Tre'Von Willis (6'4" junior -17.6ppg, 3.5assists, 3.9rebs, 29.9% 3p%), PG is Oscar Bellfield (6'2" sophomore - 9.3ppg, 4.5 assists, 38.7% 3p%).

San Diego State, Sag #48, kenpom offense #50, kenpom defense #52, 4th in conference at 10-5, 21-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Arizona, New Mexico (splilt), UNLV (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: BYU (twice), St. Mary's, Pacific, Wyoming,
3P% - 31.6%, Reb. Margin =+7.0 , FT 61.0%, FG 47.4%, Opp. FG 40.3% –
Balanced scoring from 4 players, superb defense and a rebounding advnatage is how they win. The top 4 guys are (6'7" freshman, 6'9" junior, 6'0" junior, and a 6'8"junior). So... if t his team makes it, it will depend on the matchup because they are a big team... and they also can't shoot free throws!

Randoms...
Butler has a bona fide NBA prospect and Gonzaga has yet another solid team.

Butler, Sag #28, kenpom offense #59, kenpom defense #25, 1st in conference at 18-0, 26-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Northwestern, Ohio St (w/o Evan Turner), Xavier,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Minnesota, Clemson (by one), Georgetown, UAB
3P% - 34.1%, Reb. Margin = +3.9, FT 74.7%, FG 45.0%, Opp. FG 41.8% –
No real marquee win, outside of Xavier. The Horizon stinks this year, so I don't know if you should trust these guys at all.
Gordon Hayward is the leader (6'9" sophomore - 15.8ppg, 8.5 rebs, 30.2% 3p%), but Mack is sharpshooter (6'3" sophomore - 13.9ppg, 3.2 assists, 37% 3p%). Notably Hayward is supposed to a late 1st round pick this summer.

Northern Iowa, Sag #37, kenpom offense #94, kenpom defense #19, 1st in conference at 15-3, 26-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Boston College, Iowa St, Siena,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: DePaul, Wichita St, Bradley, Evansville
3P% - 34.8%, Reb. Margin = +3.4 , FT 75.4%, FG 43.3%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
Played a very soft schedule... aren't a great offensive team. Eesh.
3 players lead the way (Koch - 12.3 ppg, 4.9 rebs, 37.1% 3p%), Eglseder (12.1ppg, 7.5rebs, ) and an INEFFICIENT PG (Ahelegbe - 10.4 ppg, 2.8assits, 3.1 TURNOVERS, 39% fg%). I don't like this team.

Gonzaga, Sag #30, kenpom offense #42, kenpom defense #61, 1st in conference at 12-2, 25-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wisconsin, Cincy, Oklahoma,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Mich St (by 4), Wake (by 2), Duke (by 30!), San Fran, Loyola Marymount
3P% - 36.2%, Reb. Margin = +5.1 , FT 66.3%, FG 49.5%, Opp. FG 40.3% –
Wisconsin win is marquee...
4 players lead way for a team that was supposed to have a "down" year... Matt Bouldin (6'5" senior - 16ppg, 4.7 rebs, 4.1 assists, 37.7% 3p%), Elias Harris (6'7" freshman - 14.9ppg, 7.4 rebs, ), Steven Gray (6'5" junior - 13.5 ppg, 2.6 assists, 4.1 rebs), and Robert Sacre (7'0" sophomore - 10.2ppg, 1.9blocks, 5.3 rebs)

Old Dominion, Sag #39, kenpom offense #73, kenpom defense #23, 1st in conference at 15-3, 23-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Georgetown,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Missouri, Miss St, Richmond, Dayton, George Mason, Northeastern (yuck), VCU, No. Iowa
3P% - 31.4%, Reb. Margin = +7.9 , FT 64.2%, FG 44.8%, Opp. FG 40.2% –
They can't shoot... but their rebounding keeps them in games. Not one 3-point shooter on team. odds of winning a game in tourney... low. Gerald Lee leads way (6'10" senior - 14.1 ppg, 5.1 rebs)

ACC & Big Ten - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2010

ACC - look out for a dangerous Georgia Tech team w/ two NBA 1st ronders... Maryland is relying on one guy and has more wins than they deserve...

Duke, Sag #3, kenpom offense #1, kenpom defense #3, 1st in conference at 12-2, 25-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UConn, Gonzaga, Clemson (twice), Maryland
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Wisconsin, Geo Tech (split), NC St, Georgetown
3P% - 39.1%, Reb. Margin = +6.2, FT 75.9%, FG 44.4%, Opp. FG 40.3% –
Jon Scheyer (6'5" senior - 18.8ppg, 5.3 assists, 3.4 rebs, 40.9 3p%); Nolan Smith (6'2" junio - 17.4ppg, 41% 3p%), Kyle Singler (6'8" junior - 17.1 ppg, 7.0rebs, 38.6% 3p%). They have three superb 3-point shooters. Surprisingly, they don't play great defense, though it is adequate. Also surprising, is their relatively weak schedule outside of conference. I'm not totally sold on this team.

Maryland, Sag #14, kenpom offense #7, kenpom defense #33, 2nd in conference at 11-3, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Fla St, Georgia Tech
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Cincy, Wisconsin, Villanova, William & Mary !, Wake
3P% - 38.9%, Reb. Margin = +0.3 , FT 71.3%, FG 47.6%, Opp. FG 38.0% –
This team is completely overachieving. They are in danger of getting upset early. Greivis Vasquez (19.5ppg, 6.4assists, 4.8 rebs, 37.9% 3p%); Eric Hayes (45.5% 3p%) , Jordan Williams (9.1ppg, 8.4 rebs). I don't remember any team w/ such an awful rebounding advantage being able to survive long in the tourney. Remember, season numbers should be boosted from playing a bunch of non-tourney teams, so in the tourney, they may get destroyed on the glass.

Clemson, Sag #20, kenpom offense #43, kenpom defense #9, 3rd in conference at 9-6, 21-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Butler, Maryland (split), Geo Tech (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Texas A&M, Illinois, BC
3P% - 34.1%, Reb. Margin = +2.6, FT 66.3%, FG 45.8%, Opp. FG 41.6% –
Trevor Booker (6'8" freshman - 15.6ppg, 8.4 rebs); Demontez Sitt (10.9ppg, 38.9% 3p%); balanced scoring from the rest of the team. They can't shoot 3s or free throws, so I don't believe in this team either.

Virginia Tech, Sag #34, kenpom offense #102, kenpom defense #10, 4th in conference at 8-6, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Georgia, Seton Hall, Wake
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Temple, UNC, Miami (FL), BC
3P% - 30.4%, Reb. Margin = +1.8 , FT 72.1%, FG42.3%, Opp. FG 39.5% –
Maclolm Delaney (20.4ppg, 4.1 assists, 30.3% 3p% ! (he takes 6 per game!); Dorenzo Hudson (14.2ppg, 3.6 rebs, 28.7% 3p% ! (he takes 3.6 per game!);
This team also seems really messed up. A 30% 3-point shooting team, with the leading scorer taking 6 per game and shooting 30%??? This doesn't seem like a winning formula.

Fla St, Sag #27, kenpom offense #103, kenpom defense #1, 5th in conference at 8-6, 20-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Alabama, Marquette, FIU (take that Isiah!), Geo Tech (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Ohio St, Florida, NC State, Clemson (twice)
3P% - 33.7%, Reb. Margin = +5.4 , FT 64.7%, FG 45.9%, Opp. FG 36.9% –
Six players average between 8 and 11 ppg. Very balanced. They have one 3-point shooter (Deividas Dulkys - 39.9%); a couple of PGs, and a couple of big men (7-1 Solomon Alabi - a top-20 pick on NBA Draft Express and a 6-9 guy). They somehow have the best defense in the land... and one of the worst offenses. I have no idea what that means.

Wake, Sag #35, kenpom offense #89, kenpom defense #24, 5th in conference at 8-6, 18-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Gonzaga, Xavier, Richmond, Maryland, Geo Tech (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: William & Mary!, Purdue, NC State
3P% - 32.1%, Reb. Margin = +4.9 , FT 65.5%, FG 44.2%, Opp. FG 37.9% –
Aminu (6'9" - sophomore - 16.4ppg, 11.0 rebs, ) Ishmael Smith (6'0" senior - 13.2 ppg, 6.2 assists, 4.7 rebs); no real 3-point shooter on this team, but they have an NBA-prospect big man and a great PG. This team may have more upside despite the uneven play in conference.

Georgia Tech, Sag #33, kenpom offense #55, kenpom defense #20, 7th in conference at 7-8, 19-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Siena, USC, Duke (split), Clemson,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Dayton, Florida St, Georgia, Miami (FL)
3P% - 37.2%, Reb. Margin = +5.0 , FT 65.2%, FG 46.4%, Opp. FG 38.1% –
Lawal (6'8" junior - 13.5ppg, 9.0 rebs, ); Favors (6'10"freshman - 11.7ppg, 8.3 rebs ) - the bench also has FOUR 3-point shooters all above 40%. Lawal and Favors are both slated as NBA draft picks this year. Favors is a top-5 pick, Lawal a top-30 pick. I'd keep an eye on these guys (and this team)!

Big Ten - the top 4 are capable of creating noise so long as Kalin Lucas is healthy for Mich State. Purdue may win a game or two w/o Hummel in the tourney but that's the ceiling. Northwestern blew their chance of going to the tourney, barring a miracle.

Ohio State, Sag #13, kenpom offense #10, kenpom defense #19, 1st in conference at 14-4, 24-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Cal, Fla St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Mich St
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: (Note: lost to Butler, Wisconsin, and Michigan w/o Evan Turner); UNC, Minnesota, W. Virginia, Purdue
3P% - 37.9%, Reb. Margin = +2.2, FT 68.9%, FG 49.4%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
Evan Turner is going to be the #2 pick. If he hadn't missed some games (and 3 losses), Ohio State would be in the running for a #1 seed. Turner is ridiculous (19.8ppg, 5.8 assists, 9.4 rebs, 1.8 steals). They also have Buford (14.3 ppg, 5.5 reb) and Diebler (12.6 ppg, 42% 3p%) and Lighty (12.4 ppg, 4.6 rebs, 39% 3p%). I'll be t he first to admit it - Ohio state doesn't have a bench and they don't have a true PG... meaning they are a really bizarre team and they will be exposed before the Final 4, unless Evan Turner goes Carmelo on us (which I don't think can happen... everyone forgets, but Carmelo at least had two good guards and an NBA forward who was playing center (Hakim Warrick). Evan Turner doesn't have that much help.

Michigan St, Sag #23, kenpom offense #28, kenpom defense #31, 2nd in conference at 12-4, 22-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Gonzaga, Wisconsin (split), Purdue (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Florida, UNC, Texas, Illinois, Ohio St
3P% - 33.3%, Reb. Margin = +9.1 , FT 68.6%, FG 41.7%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
Kalin Lucas (15.1 ppg, 4.0assists, 35% 3p%) must get healthy for them to have a chance. They've been a mess for the last month since his injuries have hampered him.

Purdue, Sag #8, kenpom offense #33, kenpom defense #5, 2nd in conference at 12-4, 24-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Tennessee, Wake, Alabama, W. Virginia, Wisconsin (split), Mich St (split), Ohio St (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Northwestern, Wisconsin (split), Mich St (split), Ohio St (split)
3P% - 32.4%, Reb. Margin = +0.2, FT 74.0%, FG 45.2%, Opp. FG 40.2% –
This team can't go too far as they lost all-world PF Robbie Hummel for the season. They still have Moore (6'4" junior - 16.8ppg, 37% 3p%) and J. Johnson (6'10" - junior - 14.7ppg, 7.1rebs)

Wisconsin, Sag #12, kenpom offense #11, kenpom defense #15, 4th in conference at 11-5, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Maryland, Duke, Arizona, Marquette, Ohio St (split), Purdue (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Gonzaga, Wis. Green Bay, Illinois, Minnesota
3P% - 35.8%, Reb. Margin = +1.9 , FT 74.2%, FG44.9%, Opp. FG 41.8% –
Hughes (15.5 ppg, 4.5 rebs, 39.4% 3p%); Leuer (14.4 ppg, 5.8 rebs, ) Bohannon (12.4 ppg, 41.4% 3p%). They have some great wins out of conference, mainly Maryland and Duke. They are always a hard team to gauge, but this team looks pretty solid, though not as good rebounding as most Wisconsin teams.

Illinois, Sag #58, kenpom offense #67, kenpom defense #40, 5th in conference at 10-7, 18-12
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Clemson, Vanderbilt, Mich St, Wisconsin
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Utah, Bradley, Georgia, Missouri, Gonzaga, Ohio St (twice), Purdue (twice), Mich St,
3P% - 34.1%, Reb. Margin = +2.4 , FT 71.0%, FG 45.2%, Opp. FG 39.9% –
I don't know about this team, the resume looks bad, the stats look bad, this is a one-and-done team, if they even get there.

Minnesota, Sag #57, kenpom offense #38, kenpom defense #53, 6th in conference at 8-9, 17-12
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Butler, Ohio St (w/o Turner), Wisconsin
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Portland, Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Indiana, Michigan (twice)
3P% - 39.3%, Reb. Margin = +1.9 , FT 69.5%, FG 47.1%, Opp. FG 40.0% –
They shoot 3s and play defense! It sounds like a winning formula. They also have some terrible losses, so I don't know what's up with them. They need to do well in the Big Ten Tourney to have any chance.

Northwestern, Sag #73, kenpom offense #27, kenpom defense #163, 8th in conference at 7-10, 18-11
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Notre Dame, NC ST, Purdue,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Butler, Illinois, Iowa, Penn St (TWICE BY DOUBLE DIGITS!!!!)
3P% - 36.5%, Reb. Margin = -2.6 , FT 71.2%, FG 47.1%, Opp. FG 42.7% –
The team was ranked in January... and then went through a hideous funk once the uber-competitive Big Ten season started. I thought after last season, this would be the year that Northwestern finally made the tourney. Now? It looks like they need to win the Big ten tourney to make it... and that's not going to happen. They have lots of 3-point shooters (who aren't great)... but they don't rebound or play defense. It's sad.