Big 10 - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2009

The Big 10 is ranked is just fractions behind the ACC for best conference this year, according to Sagarin. The Big 10, unlike the ACC, is short on top, elite teams and long on teams that are all of the same caliber. An indication of this is that ESPN currently is slating 8 teams to make the dance. Thus, we'll take a look at 9 of them.

Also note... based on an article I read by Luke Winn on SI, it appears that I should be including an extra stat (kenpom's offensive and defensive ratings). Winn claims that "No Final Four team in the past five years has been ranked outside the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (a competition-adjusted figure). And only two Elite Eight teams in the past five years have ranked outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency." Winn also claims that "contenders" have offensive AND defensive ratings in the top 20.

Michigan St, Sag #8, kenpom offense #24, kenpom defense #15, 1st in conference at 10-3, 20-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Texas, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Minnesota (twice), Ohio St (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Maryland, UNC, Northwestern, Penn St, Purdue
3P% - 36.4%, Reb. Margin = +9.9 , FT 75.9%, FG 46.0%, Opp. FG 41.7% –
Mich St relies on sophomore 6'0" PG Kalin Lucas who gets 14.8 ppg, 4.7 assists, 1.9 TOs, and shoots an average? 37.1% 3P%. Mich. St. then has 4 other players who averge between 9ppg and 11ppg. Their bigs, 6' 8" F Raymar Morgan and 6'10" C Goran Suton, get 6.0 rpg and 7.4 rpg to help them maintain an awesome rebounding advantage. Michigan State is always a solid team, with a great coach. The enigma with this year's team is that they lack any marquee wins outside of Texas, as they got blown out by UNC.

Purdue, Sag #10, kenpom offense #79, kenpom defense #2, 2nd in conference at 9-4, 2o-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Boston Coll, Mich St, Davidson
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Oklahoma, Duke, Illinois (twice), Penn St
3P% - 34.4%, Reb. Margin = -0.5 , FT 70.5%, FG 44.9%, Opp. FG 37.1% –
Purdue has more expectations this year, as all the freshmen from last year became sophomores. The most important stat for Purdue? They are 2-3 without 6'8" F Robbie Hummel (w/ losses to Penn St [outrebounded by 15], Ohio St [outrebounded by 16], and Illinois), who gets 12.3 ppg, 7.1 rebs, and a solid 38% 3point %. 6'10" F Jajuan Johnson and 6'4" G E'Twaun Moore lead the way with both getting 13 ppg and 5.9 and 4.9 rpg. Purdue lost in OT to Xavier in the 2nd round of last year's tourney, and if they stay healthy, I look for them to build on their success. The one concerning thing is the rebounding margin. With big star players, they should be able to do that better.

Illinois, Sag #19, kenpom offense #97, kenpom defense #5, 3rd in conference at 9-5, 21-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Missouri, Purdue (twice), Vanderbilt,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Clemson, Michigan, Mich St, Penn St (in an ugly 38-33 loss)
3P% - 34.4%, Reb. Margin = +0.7, FT 71.4%, FG 46.0%, Opp. FG 39.2% –
Illinois have 4 players in double figures, led by 6'9" F Mike Davis at 10.6 ppg, 7.8 reb, and 51.9% FG%. Senior 6'2" G Trent Meachem is their lone 3-point threat, at 42.3%, and knocks in 10.0 ppg. This team plays fantastic defense but has problems offensively (as evidenced by that despicable 38-33 loss to Penn St. I guess the good thing is they got it out of their system, right? I don't think this team has as high of a ceiling, mainly because of that game.

Penn St, Sag #53, kenpom offense #72, kenpom defense #65, 4th in conference at 8-6, 19-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Penn, Georgia Tech, Purdue (split), Mich. St (split), Illinois
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Rhode Island, Temple, Wisconsin (twice)
3P% - 37.4%, Reb. Margin = +3.3 , FT 65.5%, FG 44.0%, Opp. FG 42.3% –
Penn St relies on 3 players and gets almost no production from anyone else. 5'11" G Talor Battle gets 17.3 ppg, 5 assists, 5.2 rebs, and an average 37% 3point%. 6-5" F Jamelle Cornley does 14.6ppg, 6.6 rebs and 6-1" G Stanley Pringle (can't believe he's still playing) gets 12.7ppg, and a blistering 46.7% 3p%. Penn State is an interesting team that is suprsingly above .500 in Big 10 play. If they continue that kind of play, they probably could make the tourney. They don't exactly play good enough defense to think they can win any games in the tourney.

Wisconsin, Sag #27, kenpom offense #14, kenpom defense #60, 4th in conference at 8-6, 17-9
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wis. Milwaukee, Va. Tech, Michigan, Illinois (split), Ohio St,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UConn, Marquette, Texas, Iowa, Northwestern
3P% - 37.0%, Reb. Margin = +3.2 , FT 71.4%, FG 44.8%, Opp. FG 43.7% –
Wisconsin's had a bizarre season, as they had a 6-game Big 10 losing streak in the middle, but are now on a 5-game winning streak. Good luck figuring out this Dr. Jekyll and Hyde. Wisconsin has balanced scoring amongst their top 5, and have two 38% shooters in their backcourt (Hughes and Bohannon).

Ohio St., Sag #28, kenpom offense #44, kenpom defense #54, 6th in conference at 7-6, 17-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Butler, Michigan (twice), Purdue, Minnesota
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: West Virginia, Minnesota, Mich St (twice), Northwestern
3P% - 37.1%, Reb. Margin = -0.5 , FT 68.6%, FG 48.3%, Opp. FG 40.3% –
With Ohio State, they have been inconsistent all season. They beat Notre Dame when they were a top-10 team and Michigan when they were ranked, but have also lost some games by wide margins. They lost David Lighty to injury and there's no word on if he's coming back this season. If he does come back, Ohio State could certainly make noise in the tourney. Ohio State is led by 6'7" Evan Turner who gets 17.2 ppg, 7.3 rebs, and 51.9 FG%. OSU also has two sharpshooters in Buford and Diebler who shoot 36% and 42.6% from 3-point land. In addition, OSU has 7'0" center BJ Mullens who is a bona fide NBA prospect but is extremely inconsistent. He's very skinny and only getting 9ppg and 5 rebs.

Minnesota, Sag #38, kenpom offense #82, kenpom defense #48, 7th in conference at 7-7, 19-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: S. Dakota St, Virginia, Louisville, Ohio St (split), Illinois
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Mich St (twice), Northwestern, Penn St, Michigan
3P% - 34.7%, Reb. Margin = +1.5 , FT 70.8%, FG 44.6%, Opp. FG 40.0% –
Minnesota's marquee victory is over Louisville, when they were in a bit of a struggle early on. They use a lot of players (10 players that play between 12 and 24 minutes per game). It's hard to stereotype them, but it seems like everyone has to chip on the rebounding as they have no real dominant big men.

Michigan, Sag #43, kenpom offense #61, kenpom defense #77, 7th in conference at 7-7, 17-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UCLA, Duke (split), Illinois (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Ohio St (twice), UConn, Mich St, Penn St
3P% - 32.3%, Reb. Margin = -2.1 , FT 75.9%, FG 42.1%, Opp. FG 43.3% –
Michigan has to get to .500 in conference play and finish strong to get an at-large that once seemed guaranteed. Victories over UCLA and Duke should power them through with just an at-large. Michigan is led by 6'5" Manny Harris who gets 17.2 ppg, 7.1 rebs, 4.2 assists but 3.3 turnovers and only 41.5 FG%, and 6'8" DeShawn Sims who gets 14.5 ppg, 7.3 rebs. They have 5 different players who jack up at least three 3-pointers per game and NONE of them shoot over 34.7%. They also get outrebounded all the time. Yuck. They will need to get to .500 in conference and win at least a game or two in the big-10 tourney to advance.

Northwestern, Sag #58, kenpom offense #48, kenpom defense #100, 9th in conference at 5-8, 14-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: DePaul, Minnesota, Mich St, Wisconsin, Ohio St
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Butler, Stanford, Iowa, Purdue, Mich St
3P% - 39.1%, Reb. Margin = -5.2 , FT 68.2%, FG 45.2%, Opp. FG 42.6% –
They have three 3-point shooters, and all of them are needed (38%, 43%, and 41%) because they get outrebounded by one of the largest margins I've seen. They also will need to get to .500 in conference and win at least a game or two in the big-10 tourney to advance. They are a a real longshot.