ACC - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2009

The Super Bowl has ended and it's now time to pour full attention on NCAA Basketball! It will also be a nice distraction from the continual bad news about the economy and the fact that everyone's doing steroids. Look at the bright side - at least none of the players are actually androids pretending to be humans.

Anyway, from what little info I've been able to gather to this point, the mid-majors (aside from Gonzaga, Davidson, Butler, and St. Mary's) are a complete mess this year and there is a real lack of candidates for at-large bids from the mid-majors. As a result, I'm skipping the MVC this year and here are the conferences I'm looking to cover this season:

Week of 2/9 - ACC
Week of 2/16 - Big 10
Week of 2/23 - PAC-10 & Mountain West
Week of 3/2 - Big East
Week of 3/9 - Pot Luck

Before we get into the ACC, I do want to touch on the fact that my statistical winning team in 2008, based on stats, was Notre Dame. They ended up losing in the 2nd round by 20 to Washington State. In 2007, I selected Maryland, but I did disregard their rebounding margin for some mysterious reason. Maryland lost in the 2nd round as well that year. Though Notre Dame had a great rebounding margin, I think the problem that doesn't get analyzed is the PG play. I will try to take PG play, or at least ball handling, into account this year by focusing on assists and turnovers per game for the team.

As for the ACC... it's currently the highest rated conference in the nation according to Sagarin (though the Big 10 and Big east are just fractional points behind).

UNC, Sag #3, kenpom offense #1, kenpom defense #21, 1st in conference at 7-2, 21-2
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Notre Dame, Mich St, Clemson
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Boston Coll, Wake (their only loss)
3P% - 38.8%, Reb. Margin = +7.5 , FT 74.9%, FG 48.8%, Opp. FG 40.0% –
Obviously, UNC is very talented and has the potential to win the whole thing. It's amazing how well they are doing considering they've already lost like 3 players to injuries.

Duke, Sag #2, kenpom offense #7, kenpom defense #15, 1st in conference at 7-2, 20-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Purdue, Xavier (by a lot), Georgetown
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Michigan, Wake, Clemson
3P% - 33.6%, Reb. Margin = +6.1 , FT 72.4%, FG 44.9%, Opp. FG 40.0% –
Duke is interesting this year. Benching senior PG Greg Paulus in favor of Nolan Smith was working out... but then Paulus ended up starting against Miami (FL) last weekend in an OT win. Duke is one of the better teams this year, but the shaky PG situation would suggest to me that they will be pressured into losing before cutting down the nets.

Clemson, Sag #6, kenpom offense #10, kenpom defense #43, 4th in conference at 5-3, 19-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Illinois, Miami (FL), Duke
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Wake, UNC, Florida St.
3P% - 36.8%, Reb. Margin = +1.7 , FT 67.9%, FG 46.4%, Opp. FG 41.0% –
Clemson still has senior KC Rivers (one of those players who's great in college, but probably won't do anything in the NBA). Rivers is taking a little less shots and actually the scoring load is distributed over 3 players this season, including 6'7" F-C Trevor Booker, and 6'2" Guard T. Olgesby. Rivers and Oglesby both shoot 3s at over 38%. Rivers is having a down season at 38% from 3-point land. If he can get back into form, Clemson may actually do something this season in the NCAAs.

Wake Forest, Sag #9, kenpom offense #35, kenpom defense #16, 4th in conference at 5-3, 18-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNC, Clemson, Duke
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Va. Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL)
3P% - 33.3%, Reb. Margin = +5.4 , FT 70.5%, FG 49.1%, Opp. FG 37.6% –
This team is such an enigma. They've already beaten UNC and Duke... but they've also lost to some teams that aren't that good. The secret is out that PG Jeff Teague will be a lottery pick come June, but they need to keep focused if they are going to go far. In addition to the super sophomore, the other top-2 scorers are 6'9" forwards, freshman A. Aminu, and sophomore James Johnson. both get 13ppg and 8rpg to create a nice inside-outside combination for Wake.

Miami (FL), Sag #28, kenpom offense #30, kenpom defense #57, 9th in conference at 4-6, 15-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Kentucky, Wake, Boston Coll.
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UConn, Ohio St (McClinton got ejected at beginning of 2nd half), Clemson, UNC, Va. Tech, NC State, Maryland
3P% - 37.8%, Reb. Margin = +7.7 , FT 68.1%, FG 43.8%, Opp. FG 38.6% –
Senior 6'1" guard Jack McClinton is very talented and is a scoring machine - shooting 47% from the field and 47% from 3-point land. They have a lot of players who don't shoot well though... which is probably why they've lost to many of the tough teams they've faced. I think the Hurricanes will be on the bubble all season.

Florida St, Sag #35, kenpom offense #113, kenpom defense #8, 4th in conference at 5-3, 18-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: California, Florida, Cincy, Clemson
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Northwestern, Pitt, Duke, Miami(FL), UNC
3P% - 32.8%, Reb. Margin = +1.8 , FT 70.7%, FG 42.6%, Opp. FG 38.1% –
I can't believe the stats on this team - they have a 20.3 scorer in 6'2" Toney douglas... and then a slew of single-digit scorers. Douglas only shoots 34% from 3-point land though... but still heaves more than 6 per game. Yuck. Team doesn't look too attractive to me.
3/14/09 - Update - In light of FSU's march to the ACC final, I decided to re-look at their numbers. Douglas now scores 20.9 ppg, and is now shooting 38% from 3-point land, meaning he was real hot the last month of the season, as they went 7-3 over the last 10 games (with another win over Clemson, two wins over Bubble team Va. Tech, and a win over UNC). Rebounding margin has shrunk to +0.7.

Boston College, Sag #54, kenpom offense #24, kenpom defense #145, 2nd in conference at 6-4, 18-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNC, Va. Tech,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Saint Louis, Purdue, Harvard!, Wake (twice), Miami (FL)
3P% - 34.0%, Reb. Margin = +3.5 , FT 72.4%, FG 44.8%, Opp. FG 41.8% –
The enigma of the ACC - as they beat UNC and then lost to Harvard. Little Tyrese Rice hits 18.8 ppg, 5.5 assits, but also turns it over a lot (3.8). They are 6-4 in the ACC now, but they still have to play Clemson, Duke, and Florida St., and Miami(FL). I tend to think the UNC win was an aberration and that they will be lucky to sustain their success.

Va Tech, Sag #56, kenpom offense #60, kenpom defense #87, 4th in conference at 5-3, 15-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wake, Miami (FL)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Xavier, Seton Hall, Wisconsin, Georgia, Boston Coll.
3P% - 33.9%, Reb. Margin = +3.7 , FT 71.4%, FG 44.7%, Opp. FG 40.9% –
They have balanced scoring w/ two guards - 6'2" Delaney and 6'6" Vassallo. Both shoot between 36 and 38% from 3-point land. They also have a 6'7" forward who still bangs out 14.7ppg and 8.8 rebounds... after that... there isn't anything on this team. At least they have 3 guys I can talk about. Again, it's hard to tell if they can make the tourney.

Concluding thoughts: I'm no bracketologist, but after the big 4 (duke, unc, wake, clemson), it seems like there should be two bids available for these other 4, which will depend on the rest of conference play.