Better Know a Conference: The Big 10

Finally we come to the end of the great Conference exploration of 2009 in Big 10 country...the conference nearest and dearest to BSD (according to Gallup Polling). Over the past 4 years only Boise State has had conference winning percentage than (the) Ohio State. tOSU hasn't lost more than one conference game in anyone year in that span for a whopping 90% winning. The one team that has caused problems for the Scarlet and Grey has been OSU's arch-rival Penn State. Penn State has posted the second best winning percentage over the time frame and managed to snag a few conference titles for Old Man Paterno during this time frame.

However both OSU and Penn State suffered serious attrition this off-season. Penn State lost 4 of 5 o-linemen, top 3 DEs, top 4 WRs, and the entire secondary. Meanwhile OSU lost top 2 LBs, first round RB and CB, 2 OL, and a semi-starter QB. That's a lot of talent to replace for both. While I do see PSU and OSU remaining at the top, the Big 10 could be in for a parity filled ACC/Big East type year with the eventual champion having multiple in conference losses - which means at the national stage the Big 10s perception will continue to take a beating (I'm not sure how much lower it could get). So how do I see this playing out? In true Michael Wilbon (Northwestern alumn) spirit....push...with a 3 way tie for first

1a. Penn State - Despite all of the turnover in Happy Valley land the Nittany Lions still have reigning player of the year/senior QB Daryll Clark and probably the best running back in the conference in Evan Royster. They also boast the best linebacker corp. IF their o-line can somehow gell then Royster will have holes and Clark time which should be enough to put them over the edge as they host OSU this year. However with one of the most inexperienced o-lines in all of college football there will be slip ups along the way.

1b. OSU - With all of the losses (24 in all from last year's squad) this year represents the youngest squad in Jim Tressel's tenure at OSU. Sophmores start at all the key offensive positions (QB, C, RB, WR and probably LT). The strength of team will be it's defensive line and safeties. There are two big questions about OSU this year 1) the development of Pryor and 2) the USC game. Pryor looked like a true freshman with flashes of greatness and putridity last year. The question is how much can he improve?

The USC game is important for not only the Buckeyes but the Big 10 more generally. It's really the only major non-conference game played by the Big 10 this year so the inseason perception of the Big 10 (and hence BCS bowl placement) will really and truly be determined in Week 2 of the season. I'm more than willing to bet Colonel's house that another OSU failure against a top 5 team will mean not only no Big 10 in the mythical championship but only 1 BCS spot.

1c Iowa - In my big surprise pick I'm going with the Hawkeyes to tie for best record. They return tons of experience (98 starts at o-line) , a veteran QB, and 8 of 11 defensive starters. Remember this is the team that beat Penn State last year. The big thing it needs to replace is in the running game. Shonn Greene and his 100 yard games along with their 2 DT. Hampton should replace Greene and I think as a result Iowa will surprise a lot of people.

4. Illinois - Illinois and Ron Zook looked like they were about to make a breakthrough after going to the Rose Bowl 2 years ago. Last year they posted the worst record of a Rose Bowl participant the following year ever times infinity (or so). The main culprit were turnovers and the rule of thumb is that means a turnaround the following year. So if there is a dark horse in the Big 10, it's Illinois, but losing 8 starters on D , tons of experience on the o-line, and it's still 8 year starter Juice Williams back there will hold them back me thinks.

5. Michigan State - Last year's surprise team seems to be the consesus number 3 in the conference along with the slotted defensive player of the year (Greg Jones). However Michigan State lost about 90% of their offense last with the graduation of running back Javon Ringer and QB Hoyer. There's still a lot of uncertainty over who will QB, who will start at RB and how can they continue to get turnovers. This looks like a step back year for the Fighting Spartans.

6. Wisconsin - I end up following quit a bit of college football but I don't begin to understand what happened to Wisconsin last year. Slotted to contend for a Big 10 title the team never seemed to recover by back to back heart breakers against Michigan and OSU. Whether it was bad QB play or shoddy defense or a crappy coach or the position of Mars and Jupitor I can't figure it out. I'm guessing Wisconsin will return to being decent for no other reason than I can think of no other reason.

7. Michigan
8. Northwestern
9. Minnesota
10. Purdue
11. Indiana