Thursday, September 03, 2009

NFL Preview 2009: A Space Odyssey

If anyone wants to check out my past previews, I promised you will laugh at how incorrect they are. There's 2008 [where I picked Dallas over New England, and neither made the playoffs] There's 2007 [New England over New Orleans - the Pats at least went undefeated], 2006 [Indy over Giants - I actually hit the Colts!], 2005 [CAR over Indy], and 2004 [??? - apparently no longer on the internet] all waiting to be laughed at.

On to the preview...

AFC East
3-New England - The Pats will be back, angrier than ever, cockier than ever, and willing to show no mercy. In the words of the Cobra Kai from Karate Kid - "No mercy!"
5-Buffalo - Buffalo was my team to watch last season, and then they didn't do all that well. This year they have TO though, which I think should make a big difference. QB Trent Edwards seems ready to make the leap. Or he may just be average. I have no idea. I'm just excited because the Bills are seriously going to be running the no-huddle this season! No joke.... or then again maybe the joke is that they ran it during the preseason and it was a complete failure. Either way, I'm intrigued!
Miami - I think the Dolphins and their fans should just keep watching highlights of their epic 38-13 thrashing of the Pats last season when they a) ended the Pats regular season winning streak, b) unveiled the Wildcat offense, and c) got a victory that literally was the difference in making the playoffs. I just don't see the Dolphins being as lucky as last season... though I do love that they drdafted QB Pat White to also run the Wildcat. They finished at 11-5, but their "expected" W-L on football reference.com was only 8.8 wins. Eesh.
NY Jets - They have a rookie QB starting. I don't care that Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco made the playoffs last year as rookie QBs. Those were anomalies and exceptions.

AFC North
1-Pittsburgh - They should destroy everyone in the division (6 wins), then get another 3 wins out west (Oakland, KC, Denver), then get at least another 2 wins from the NFC (Detroit, Chicago/Green Bay), and get a win over Miami in their last game. That's 12-4, and it certainly could be even better.
Baltimore - I still can't believe the Ravens made the AFC Championship game last season. This team still annoys me more than any other team. I'm pulling for a sophomore slump from Captain Flacco... or for Cobra Commander to come back and find new ways to mess things up.
Cincy - How does Marvin Lewis still have a job? Seriously?
Cleveland - The Browns have a 4-win ceiling I think. Is it bad that all I want is for them is to build some momentum for 2010? Oy.

AFC South
4-Indy- I don't know what's up with these guys. I'm wondering if they are going to be sleepwalking through this season with the new coach, who we know nothing about. I also just read that Bob Sanders is on the PUP-list. Sounds like a great start, but I don't have a good feeling about any one in this division this year, so I'll just stick w/ Manning doing well for one more year.
6 - Houston - I'm doing the unthinkable and just putting Houston in the playoffs. Matt Schaub just needs to stay healthy and then this perennial 8-8 team can go to the next level... a first round playoff exit!
Tennessee - They lost DT Haynesworth. The big question is whether this will take them from a top defense to an average defense... which would result in them losing a lot of victories. They certainly overachieved to 13 wins last season, so don't expect it again. I also don't remember many old QBs coming out of nowhere and doing well for more than one season, so good luck w/ that whole Kerry Collins experiment.
Jacksonville - Why in the world everyone is drafting Maurice Jones-Drew in the top-5 (or top 3?) of every fantasy league is beyond me. 1) The Jags lost all of their offensive linemen at one point or another, and as of the end of August, reports were released that they "did not know 4 of the starters on their offensive line." 2) Maurice Jones-Drew is very talented, but his little frame is not capable of taking on 300-carries. Someone else will pick up the carries that Fred Taylor used to get.

AFC West
2- San Diego - I think this is the year that Rivers will win it all. There, I said it. Actually, I said this last year in 2008! Merriman is back and should be fine and should help anchor an improved defense this year. The offense will be fine so long as Sproles gets enough touches.
KC - Being in 2nd place in this division doesn't mean much.
Oakland - I think the Raiders have enough to edge out the pathetic Broncos...
Denver - Learning from Bill Belichick is great... except when the guy learning (the Denver coach) doesn't realize that he doesn't have good Plan B options for when QB Jay Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall are no longer on the team.

NFC East
2- Philly - I hope they win some games for their old defensive coordinator who sadly passed away in the offseason.
5-NY Giants - I think the Giants can still win some games, even w/ a weakened WR corps.
Dallas - The Cowboys may actually play better w/o all those "character" players being there.
Washington -Zorn!!!! I feel bad for the Redskins, but Jason Campbell has not impressed and it's hard to believe he can turn it around.

NFC North
1- Green Bay - The 2008 Packers were one of the unluckiest, finishing at 6-10, but having an expected W-L of 8.9 wins. This means they are better than people realize, and it will only bring joy to Green Bay fans to smackdown Brett Favre. Early articles also said they somehow had a smooth transition in their defense. Their offense is almost unstoppable... especially if Ryan Grant stays healthy this year.
6-Chicago - I'm expecting big things from Jay Cutler in Chicago... and another run from their once great defense.
Minnesota - Brett Favre will mess this up. I don't want to give him the joy of spending any more words on him.
Detroit - They will win against Brett Favre I hope.

NFC South
3- New Orleans - The Saints are back! Again!... from last place!
CAR - I have no idea.
ATL - This division is hard to predict... but it's hard to imagine the Falcons overachieving as much as last year.
TB - Let's see: Young coach, Byron Leftwich at QB, and firing the offensive coordinator the week before the season begins... it all adds up to a last place finish!

NFC West
4-San Fran - I'm rooting for the 49ers to surprise some people. QB Shaun Hill really was good at the end of last year.
Arizona - Check this out: they have the Super Bowl loser curse, an old QB, AND the Madden curse on Larry Fitzgerald. I don't think anyone can overcome that.
Seattle - I just don't believe Hasselbeck is healthy again. I hope for his sake I'm wrong.
St. Louis - The Rams should make some progress... which shouldn't be hard considering how awful they were last year.


Playoffs!

AFC
3-New England over 6-Houston
4-Indy over 5-Buffalo

2-San Diego over 3-New England (revenge game!)
1-Pittsburgh over 4-Indy

2-San Diego over 1-Pittsburgh (revenge for last year's playoff game)

NFC
3-New Orleans over 6-Chicago (revenge from a few years ago)
5-Giants over 4-San Fran (just like old times?!?)

1-Green Bay over 5-Giants
2-Philly over 3-New Orleans

1-Green Bay over 2-Philly (sorry Mr. Vick)

Super Bowl: 2- San Diego over 1-Green Bay

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