National Signing Day

Well the signings are in and here are the findings outside of the usual south dominates yadda yadda yadda.

The top classes are generally considered some combination of USC, Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, and Ohio State.

Surprises and Notables

• USC had a class of 31. This might be surprising as NCAA rules dictate schools are limited to 25 per year and USC due to sanctions 15. Well per usual USC cheats as the ongoing appeal process means USC can skirt the rule (although next year they might really be limited as the sanctions would become retroactive). In the meantime one wonders what Lane Kiffin says to these kids
• Florida State crushed Florida/Miami in the state of Florida. Whether it was the coaching turmoil, Jimbo Fisher, or the new coaches Florida/Miami didn't crack the top 20 for the first time in forever while FSU was consensus top 3.
• Two teams that were crappy but cleaned up in state (how often do I say recruiting is local) were Texas and Georgia.
• Notre Dame pulled in a top 10 class and probably more importantly the consensus best defensive line prospects in the country. It obviously remains to be seen if the wins can match the recruiting scores but no drop off without Weis.

Big 10
tOSU dominated the Big 10 with the only school close in terms of recruiting was Nebraska. No other Big 10 cracked the top 25.

Names to Remember
Jeff Driskel - #1 QB in the country heading to Florida
Isiah Crowell - #1 RB in the country heading to Georgia
Curtis Grant #1 LB in the country heading to Ohio State

and
Jadevon Crowley - #1 Player in the country - currently undecided but probably South Carolina

Looking Ahead to 2011 College Football

With looming NFL and NBA lock outs it may well be that the only sport to follow this Fall will be college football. Preseason/first week rankings are a silly silly excercise but a little crystal ball viewing of potential contenders to the Mythical Championship game well that's just the kind of stupidity I can embrace:

Potential Contenders

The SEC
LSU/Alabama.
At this point right or wrong the SEC with it's structural advantages (cheating cough cough) basically has a lock on one of the two spots in the championship game. Which brings us to link Saban and Saban's ex-squad. Both have good defenses that return just about everyone. Both have questions at QB. Can LSU's Jefferson become more consistent? Can the hyped AJ McCarron replace the departing senior McElroy? That said the SEC East is weak so that leaves LSU/Alabama to claim the South's automatic bid.

The Teflon
Oregon/Oklahoma
Both Oregon and Oklahoma have been frankly awful in big bowl games. Yes OU snapped it's 5 game losing streak by beating UConn but does that really count? Oregon now has a 2 game losing streak in big bowls. Both though return all of their key offensive players, should be highly ranked and frankly don't have more than 2 tough games.

The Coupled
TCU/Boise State

It's odd to think that these two programs are so linked that you almost can't say one without the other. This is the last year we can do that as TCU moves on to the Big East next year. However for one year the perennial super powered non-BCS will face each other in the regular season. Boise also has it's BIG NON-Conference Game. This time against Georgia.

Odds and Ends
Stanford/FSU

Stanford loses it's coach and a ton of offensive lineman but Andrew Luck should keep them in the spotlight. FSU loses Christian Ponder but Jimbo Fisher seems to have them pointed in the right direction. With the ACC and Florida on the fritz FSU could use the moment of weakness to leap back into the national contender spotlight.


You'll note I didn't include any Big 10 team. Looking like a down year for the Big 10 overall. I'll spotlight the Big 10 next week....

The Northern Hair Club for Men

Well it seems that the Michigan Wolverines have rounded out their coordinators. There is still talk about whether they will bring in an QB coach and they still need a DL and DB coach. Here are two guys.

Al Borges

He was at SDSU with Hoke the past couple of years and before that was the O-Coordinator at Auburn during the Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Jason Campbell Era. He runs a West Coast (or Gulf Coast) offense that should be interesting to see how Denard Robinson fares in it. My guess is that Denard is going to spend all of his off time throwing the ball and working on his accuracy. I am happy that Denard is sticking around because he seems like a good kid who loves the University. I would imagine that if he was hoping to play QB in the NFL then he is going to need to fine tune his passing ability and be a scrambling QB ala Michael Vick, Steve Young, Jeff Garcia etc. He is about the same size as all three of those guys. Hopefully Borges can work with him and use their trough of RB more often in the offense to make him less injury prone.

Greg Mattison

Another Greg, or as many UM's have said, Gurg. All of us AEPiers know a far more famous Gurg but that is beside the point . I think this is one of the more important UM hires, since he was taken from the much hated Baltimore Ravens. This guy was at UM from 1995-1996, coached under Jack Harbaugh at Western Michigan along with Hoke and the other Harbaughs. He left for Notre Dame, which caused a major rift at Michigan but supposedly he went there so that his kids could get a free education (it being a private school). I wouldn't blame him for leaving to coach at a school where your kids can get free schooling. He was the D-Coordinator at Florida during their National Championship, so he has beaten OSU more than any of the previous coaches. He went to coach the linebackers at Baltimore (who I hear are pretty good) and then became D Coordinator after Rex Ryan went to the Jets. My guess is he is going to bring in a very tough, don't put up with anything, knock the crap out of you style of play that Michigan has lacked for a while. He might actually coach the defense how to tackle. Not sure if he will bring in a 3-4 D, especially since UM doesn't have have strong linebackers.

I like both of these picks, especially Mattison. Both guys are in their early 60s and have been coordinators most of their life so they probably won't be flight risks to other schools for head coaching jobs. I have a feeling that they will stay with UM for their careers. I think that Mattison will help with recruiting, especially linebackers. He can say, I helped coach one of the best linebackers in the history of football (I cringe to say it, but it is true) and you can be the next Ray Lewis.

When It Comes Crashing Down and It Hurts Inside

Gotta Take A Stand And It Don't Help to Hide,

Well you Hurt My Friends and You Hurt My Pride

I Gotta Be a Man, I Can't Let It Slide...

Hoke-A-Mania is going to run wild on you.

I can just see the next OSU/UM game before the game Hoke runs down the Big House steps to the Vest has Denard Robinson give Tressel the Irish Whip to the big boot by Hoke and then runs and gives the big leg drop. Then Hoke runs to the end zone, puts his hand to his ear, then runs to the next end zone and puts his hand to his ear.

This would make recruits come to UM in a heartbeat.

Ding Dong Rich is Dead

So finally there has been a press conference and Rich Rod is no longer the coach of the Michigan Wolverines. I have to say that I was slightly hopefully that he would be able to come into Ann Arbor and bring his style of play to beat up on the other teams in the Big 10 and retain prominence in the Big 10. I unfortunately was incorrect, this was a cluster from the beginning. Rich Rod lead this team from ranking in the top of defense to a bottom dweller. Hopefully the new coach will be able to instill that smashmouth defensive oriented football back into the winningness football team. I don't care if it is Hoke who I actually tend to like. Not just because he looks like a combination of Bluto from Animal House and Mike Golic.

Maybe they will ask Tom Brady to come back from the Pats and be a player/coach just like Pete Rose did in 1986 or they will look to see if Gary Moeller is still available. Maybe they go to Lez Miles and throw money at him. I really just hope that they find someone that knows the Michigan tradition, wins without breaking the rules, doesn't allow players to drive around in "loaner" cars from the local car dealerships, and can beat the crap out of OSU in November. I think those are the most important characteristics for UM in the future and beyond.

On a side note, I am still waiting for the call Mr. Brandon...I will bring back Touchdown Tim Biakabatuka.

Legends and Leaders?!?!

Are you f'in kidding me?

Epic fail.

John Connor Series: Week 11 of College Football

Another week of humans resisting the machine driven polls here at the BSD. For how I arrive at my rankings (outside of sacrificing sheep) as well as last week's poll here is the link. Without further ado this week in Mighty Mike driven polling.....

Name	SOS	Best Wins			Losses
1. Auburn	71.61	LSU, SoCar, Arkansas, MissState
2. Oregon	72.11	Stanford, USC
3. TCU	68.7	Utah, Baylor, Oregon State
4. Wisconsin	67.62	tOSU, Iowa			MSU
5. LSU	75.07	Alabama, Miss State			Auburn
6. Boise	67.43	V-Tech, Oregon State
7. MSU	67.56	Wisconsin, Illinois			Iowa
8. Nebraska	73.08	Missouri, Ok State,K-State			Texas
9. Stanford	75.01	Arizona, USC			Oregon
10. Missouri	74.64	OU, Illinois			Nebraska
11. Ok St	72.52	Baylor, K-State, Tex A&M			Nebraska
12 Ohio State	65.41	Miami, Illinois			Wisconsin

Explanation

• While TCU's wins were somewhat undone last week with Baylor and Oregon State losing their victory at Utah was impressive. Demolishing a team that nearly everyone has as a top 20 team on the roads needs to be rewarded some TCU hops Wisconsin to the ondeck circle at #3
• Similarly LSU's victory over Alabama wasn't a fluke (they outgained 'Bama by over 100 yards) and was rewarded with a super jump. Only the teams in front of LSU I consider having better victories (remember Miss State beat Florida). Boise's victory over Oregon State as impressive continues to fall as Oregon State lost to UCLA over the weekend- which leaves V-Tech as it's only "big" win.
  
• I'll admit to feeling uncomfortable about the bunching of MSU, Nebraska , and Stanford. Overall Nebraska has the best wins but they also have the worst loss. MSU's 2nd win is the weakest of the bunch but they probably have the best overall win. Stanford has had the hardest road but beating Arizona and USC hardly should count as defining victories.
• I'm equally uncomfortable about the Missouri, Ok State, tOSU bunching for similar reasons. Ok State and tOSU have a number of tough games coming up which should allow for differentiation.
  

John Connor Series: College Football Polling

After discussion last week on rankings I've decided to throw my hat into the ring on rankings. Skynet be damned! Humans can ultimately through intuition, hard work, and the occasional reprogrammed robot. First off there is no objective/perfect way to create a rankings. None. There's simply too little data to say really much of anything definitively when it comes to rankings we care about (top 12). That said I think I, Mighty Mike, of Semi-Sound Body and Mind can give it a try. Here are a few principals that guide my rankings

1) History is Bunk - Previous season outcomes or previous week rankings do not matter. No team is entitled to a spot - each week a team's current season performance is evaluated with no strings attached.

2) What do You Do in Games That Are Tough - The problem with determining college football rankings is the unbalanced scheduling (differing strength of schedules). For the John Connor Series beating crappy teams is not viewed better than losing to great teams. Who you beat, where you do it (home v. road), how defining is it (blowout?) focused on the big game (top 30ish). In the NFL constantly you get teams from great divisions with worse records than teams from crappy divisions - and you know what, the team with the worse record is often better. If you don't play anyone tough I can not evaluate you and therefore will push you behind teams that have accomplished something via wins over tougher competition (even if they have more losses)

3) Head to Head is Iffy - Fortunately or unfortunately you often get claims where team X beat team Y therefore team X is better. Not so fast. Often teams team Z beat team Y and team Z lost to X (the Iowa-MSU-Wisconsin trio is a good current example). As such head to head doesn't reveal a lot so while I give it some stock I do not give a hard and fast ruling.

As such here is my top 12 with reasons at the bottom (note SOS is sagarin's raw strength of schedule numbers)

Name	SOS	Best Wins			Losses
1. Auburn	72.53	LSU, SoCar, Arkansas, MissState
2. Oregon	71.48	Stanford, USC
3. Wisconsin	68.22	tOSU, Iowa			MSU
4. TCU	67.47	Baylor, Oregon State
5. Boise	66.98	V-Tech, Oregon State
6. MSU	69.97	Wisconsin, Illinois			Iowa
7. Nebraska	72.53	Missouri, Ok State			Texas
8. Alabama	71.96	Arkansas, Florida
9. Missouri	74.89	OU, Illinois			Nebraska
10. Arizona	73.59	Iowa, Cal			Oreg St
11. Stanford	73.14	USC, UCLA			Oregon
12 Ohio State	65.15	Illinois, Miami			Wiscon

1. Auburn has the most number of wins over top tier teams while Oregon has had the most decisive victories - hence I've put them in the top slots.

2. After much thinking I placed Wisconsin #3. Their 2 wins are frankly more impressive than anyone else below them and as I've stated above big wins count more than tough losses.

3. I can't really differentiate TCU and Boise other than via SOS. This week Utah will play TCU which should provide differentiation as currently I don't feel comfortable having one above the other.

4. I feel comfortable having Alabama lower than most as frankly Alabama hasn't beaten anybody good yet outside of Arkansas. Florida is their second best win and they have 3 losses. As such despite the hype until Alabama has a big win (this week against LSU) I will keep them lower than most.

5. I also feel comfortable leaving Utah out of the top 12. They're best win is Air Force. If they beat TCU then they can easily leap into the mix - until then they're an unknown.

Rose Bowl and Non-BCSs

A question was asked earlier about the Rose Bowl and Non-BCSs. Here's the skinny

In the past, if one of the Rose Bowl's traditional opponents, the Pacific 10 Conference and Big Ten champions, was selected for the national championship game, officials could take the conference's second-place team....Starting with the 2011 game, the Rose Bowl must fill the empty slot with a non-BCS team if that team is ranked No. 12 or higher....But once the Rose Bowl takes one non-BCS team, it has fulfilled its obligation and can revert to the old rules until the current contract expires in 2014.

I believe this is because of the Rose Bowl avoidance of them in the past (i.e., the Rose Bowl is the only major without a non-BCS to play there) so in order for the Rose Bowl to continue to be a part of the BCS it needed to agree to this. So for purposes of this year if Oregon or MSU head off to the Championship game Boise or TCU or Utah will take their spot.

College Football Trend Watching : Week 1

Welcome Back to College Football Trend Watching...the best Tuesday blog post before a Jewish New Year or your money back....so What what are the trends...err data points after week 1

UP

• Deja Vu....As Stewart Mandel correctly points out...it was deja vu all over again in terms of themes in week 1. It seemed like Michigan found a QB, Florida's offense struggled, and Notre Dame was back. However most prognosticators said the exact same thing last year...only to be found out totally wrong. So will this time be any different?
• Boise State.... Whether you want to call it a choke by V-Tech (fourth straight opening game loss) or a brilliant come back or some combination Boise State is sitting pretty at the moment. They get Oregon State at home and well next to nothing. Will the V-Tech win be enough? Looking like we will finally get an answer as to how much respect an undefeated Boise will get in the BCS Championship race.
• Freshmen QBs - Two old powerhouses (Nebraska and Penn State) were powered to victories by freshmen. Both Nebraska and Penn State are expected to have pivotal rolls in the BCS this year so look to how these freshmen do

Down

• Oklahoma - I admit I bought into the OU bounce back hype and sure it's only 1 week and yes OU won it's game but they looked awful. Simply awful. Jones shows no progress, they are one dimensional on offense, and the defense doesn't look up to snuff
• Ole Miss - House McNutt's squad lost to a subdivision girl's volleyball team. Still waiting on those SEC chants guys.
• Oregon State - The other other OSU. I feel like they're regular fodder at this point for Non-BCS teams looking to score a cheap win. When's the last time Oregon State actually beat anyone semi-decent?

Games of the Week
Michigan at Notre Dame 3:30
Miami at OSU 3:30
FSU at Oklahoma 3:30
Penn State at Alabama 8:00

Prediction Time 9/7

BCS Championship: Alabama v. Boise State
Orange Bowl : Virginia Tech v. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl: Florida v. TCU
Fiesta: West Virginia v. Nebraska
Rose Bowl: Oregon v. Ohio State

Better Know College Football 2010: Predictions

Once again we reached the start of the College Football season . Once again I again venture into the land of crappy predictions (see last year) I figure any idiot can randomly throw out stuff and at least today ...I'm that idiot. So without further ado.....


1) A Race
As opposed to last year, I think this year will be highly competitive race for the BCS Championship Game. I'm expecting all of the Big favorites (tOSU, Bama, Florida, OU, Texas, V-Tech, Boise) to lose at least one game. However at the end of the day history and perception will run the day as the Big 12 and SEC will match up again in a championship game. I've picked Oklahoma and Alabama to win their respective conferences so we'll be treated to another SEC Championship.

2) The Hammer
The NCAA emerged from it's dormant sleep and swung the hammer on USC. I'm predicting that they will do so again...this time on UNC. The list of players involved in agents, with academic scandals, with anteater issues, are too long to list. Suffice to safe the dreaded "loss institutional control" will be thrown at UNC .

3) Kelly
The perpetual issue of will Notre Dame rise from mediocrity is upon continues. This time in the Kelly era. They have a brutal schedule but I'm predicting Kelly wins more games then Weis did in his last year.

4) Non-BCS Buster
At this point I think it's safe to say there will be a BCS Buster . Hell I'm not even sure if buster if the correct term anymore. Boise State is loaded and a win at V-Tech I think would mean an undefeated season and a trip to the BCS Championship Game. But I'm expecting V-Tech to win which means the Non-BCS flag bearer will be TCU this year. In fact, don't be surprised if TCU makes it to the BCS Championship game.

My Predictions

Stacey is demonstrating how best to use a compound bow..see it's a metaphor for boobs umm accuracy

BCS Championship: Alabama v. Oklahoma
Orange Bowl : Virginia Tech v. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl: Florida v. TCU
Fiesta: West Virginia v. Nebraska
Rose Bowl: Oregon v. Ohio State


What are your predictions/story lines for the 2010 year?

Better Know a Conference: The SEC

Welcome to Part II of Mighty's College Football 2010 Preview....up next - the SEC

Burning Question: Is Parity Dead in the SEC?
As Dr. Saturday notes, the SEC is no longer the murder's row of games. Alabama and Florida are 31-1 in the last 2 years against the SEC....which is historically abnormal. The SEC hasn't had a repeat champion since 1998 and before last year hadn't had the same teams repeat in the conference championship since 1994. This year is the perfect opportunity for the rest of the SEC to gain. Alabama lost 10 of 11 starters on defense. Florida lost more underclassmen than any other program in college football plus the Tebow child. And yet literally every single major preseason publication has Alabama and Florida rematching in the SEC Championship. In fact the only debate among prognosticators surrounds who will finish in 2nd in the SEC West. Apparently the mighty SEC is a glorified Big 12 of 2 dominant teams and then everybody else.

Biggest Non-Conference Games: Alabama v. Penn State, LSU v. UNC, Oregon v. Tennessee

Mighty's Predictions

SEC East
1. Florida -
The Big story in Florida is the departure of Tebow and his replacement in the form of uber-heralded recruit John Brantley. Brantley was the #1 ranked pro passer his senior year and now as a Junior, pro scouts are already salivating at his arm strength. The defense will take a step back but the offense should hum along.

2. Georgia
There was no particular reason for Georgia struggles into 2nd class status. Georgia is the best recruiting state next to the Big 3. Richt had won 2 SEC Championships and 6 straight 10 win seasons. Yet, the Bull dog fans are demanding Richt's head given that Florida has seized control of the SEC East. Oddly Richt is turning to ex-Browns defensive coordinator (Todd Grantham) to try to save his job.

3. South Carolina
If the old ball coach has any magic left this is the year. All the other SEC East foes seem to have serious question marks and SC returns the most veteran team of the bunch. However the defense seems to hold them back and this year will be no different.

4. Tennessee
Lane Kiffin left a smoking heap of rubble when he left. His vaunted recruiting class flamed out, Tennessee got their 5th choice to replace him, and nearly all the key positions have new faces. The Volunteers are a sheer mess.
5. Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt
Random Vandy fact, Vanderbilt's new coach is a former turkey inseminator.

SEC West
1. Alabama
It's a tale of 2 sides. 10 new starters for the defense but the offense returns nearly everybody. Look for Heisman winner Ingram share carries with Trent Richardson as many believe Richardson is more talented. Alabama has all-american quality at LT, C, WR, and QB (in addition to RB) so look look for high scoring from this fully armed and operational battlestation.

2. Arkansas
Ryan Mallet, formerly of Ann Arbor, is now the best QB in the SEC. By far. Arkansas will put up yards and points but their defense is a question mark. If anyone is to challenge the Big 2 it is Arkansas and crazy Houston McNutt. It could happen but wouldn't bet on it.

3. Auburn
Under the radar Auburn is steadily improving. Their offense might be the best in the SEC (next to Alabama) and they had the best recruiting class last year (next to Florida). Look for a good bowl out of this bunch.

4. LSU
Oh Les Miles how you've fallen. LSU since winning it's national championship has sunk lower and lower. And the natives aren't happy. Poor QB play, poor line play, poor decision making, bad hygiene (I assume). Random Mighty predictions without 10 wins look for Miles to get Das Boot. And I'm not predicting 10 wins.

5. Ole Miss
6. Miss. St.

And in conclusion...random Christina Hendricks link