When the Bard of Bards (i.e. Neil Diamond), sang the words "Hello my friend, hello again.." he was partly referring to the NFL playoffs and partly a tribute to the Applebees in Grand Rapids Michigan (its a long story but the short version involves rib eyes and a beautiful waittress). Nonetheless the reference to the NFL was obviously sarcasm. Familiarity breeds contempt, period. And there's a whole lot of contempt coming this weekend for the first round of the playoffs. To properly analyze the games I will use the three rules of Ivan's familiarity.
1. It's tough to beat a team you already beat - (San Diego v. New York Jets)
In week 2 the Jets topped the Chargers 34-28. Since then the Jets have done well against the crappy teams and stunk it up versus average/good teams (witness their loss to the 8-8 Rams). Herm "I'm trying to be crazier than Mike Martz" has had his fill of head scratchers. The Super-Chargers are fueled by Magic Marty and the best uniforms ever (love the powder blue love it).
2. It's really tough to beat a team three times in one year - (Minnesota v. Green Bay; Seattle v. St. Louis)
Both games in the NFC represent games against in-division rivals. Both games represent games where one of the teams swept the other. Not too long ago Pittsburgh pulled the trifeca against the Browns so sometimes a team just has the number. But Green Bay has LAMBOUGH FIELD, albeit two forces (global warming and Michael Vick) have hurt the mystic. St. Louis had one of the great comeback against Seattle this year (although they still have Mike Martz and a makeshift offensive line)
3. Don't even think about winning back to back games against the same team (Denver v. Indianapolis)
Denver beat up on the Colts in week 17 to make it into the playoffs. Their prize: playing the Colts on the road. Oh and some guy named Manning will be playing this time. That's like beating up Superman and then Superman takes off his kryptonite tux. Yeah what's going through Denver's head is basically: I hope this doesn't hurt too bad.
Who's Coming out on Top?
Well there is no good answer to this question. The NFC is full of at best mediocore and incomplete teams. The AFC is full of giants and intrigue. Does anyone really doubt that the AFC will win the Super Bowl again. Here are some major factors to keep your eye on:
1. Ref's - Will the Ref's be as stringent, less stringent or more stringent on pass interference. Remember the rule changes were all because of New England v. Indy
2. Richard Seymour's Health - Stopping the run is top predictor of going to the Super Bowl. Seymour is the Patroits top run -stopper. you do the math.
3. Big Ben's Ribs - Can his body take a shot? Ribs take an awful long time to heal
4. Michael Vick's hand- As of today Michael Vick has no feeling in his throwing hand. Now I'm just a simple graduate student but my understanding is that feeling in throwing hand is important to throwing.
My prediction:
New England repeats (does it really matter who they are playing. alright I'll throw out Philly)
Sugar Bowl: Auburn
NBA Championship: San Antonio over Miami (its a weekly column I can change it by the week)
My Dinner: Salad and maybe cheese and crackers.
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2 comments:
I'm very excited that 3 of my rules have made it into your column. I expect the royalty fees will be mailed to me promptly.
I must point out though, that rule #2 is WRONG. Even my worst diciples know that the rule is "If you sweep another team, the odds are that you WILL win a 3rd time."
Recent examples: Titans over Jaguars ('99, all 3 of the Jags losses that year were to the Titans), Giants over Eagles ('00, McNabb's 1st trip to playoffs).
I still appreciate the shoutout. And the money.
Like Koosed at his bar exam...plausiable deniability
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