Ultimate Playoff Preview & 2004 Recap

Before we get into the games this week, we need to cover a few issues. First off, congratulations to USC, for thoroughly beating Oklahoma and once again (as usual) proving that the Big 12 is just a weak conference. I still really wanted to see USC vs. Auburn, but that’s how the cookie crumbles. Anyway, I did some major research and it’s time for…

Goldberg’s Fantasy Football Recap 2004

Best decision: Picking TO with a 2nd-round pick
Worst decision: McNair as a “value” 4th round pick. He barely even played.
Worst decision Part 2: Brunell as my backup QB.
Worst decision Part 3: Kerry Collins as my 3rd string QB, during his 3 TD – 13 INT streak.
This resulted in a very bad team, since I was posting low numbers at QB, and I had no RB depth.

Sleeper pick

Every year, I have a “super-sleeper” who usually, no one knows about. Since it’s winter vacation, I’m going to try and show you how good I usually am at this fun game. The “sleeper” has to be either a) a rookie that most people aren’t planning on drafting or b) a younger known player that I will be picking really high

1994- Ben Coates TE, New England – I thought another season of Bledsoe would work out well. And it did! He went from 700 yards to 1174 (though he did go down from 8 to 7 TDs).
1995- Curtis Martin RB, New England (A relatively unknown rookie who ended up with 1487 yards and 15 TDs. Not starting him the first week of the season cost me, but who would have known he would kick his career off with 120 yards and 2 TDs? Just looked up on NFL.com, he was the 9th RB taken that year. I just knew New England needed a starting RB, and he might be the guy.)
1996- Mark Brunell QB, Jacksonville (Brunell had 2200 yards, 19TD in ’95. He had 4300 yards, 22 TD in ’96)
1997- I was in college and I can’t remember.
1998- I was in college and I can’t remember.
1999- I was in college and I can’t remember.
2000-I was in college, but this one was so bad I still remember! Thomas Jones RB, Arizona (rookie, he sucked. I think I’ve had him on my team every year until this year, when he finally started producing like he was supposed to.)
2001-David Boston WR, Arizona – not as much of a sleeper, since he had 1100 yards the previous year. But he bumped it up to 1600 yards, and people really took notice.
2002- Clinton Portis RB, Denver – by this point, going with the latest Denver Rookie RB always seemed to work. This year, Terrell Davis was rumored to be returning, as well as Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson. Portis was a great pick, but I had no receivers this year and so Portis’s 1500 yards and 17TDs didn’t take me as far as they should have.
2003- Onterrio Smith RB, Minnesota - a slow start, but once he saw action he actually produced.
2004- Michael Jenkins WR, Atlanta – 7 active games and only 7 receptions. Wow. I’ve hit rock bottom.

If you haven’t noticed by now, I really focus on rookies who I think will see serious playing time, or younger players who haven’t been noticed yet. It tends to work pretty well, but I certainly had my worst choice ever this past year. I mean Jenkins only had 7 catches all year!

The Final Crazy Numbers

Last Week: 6-10
Season: 151-107 (58.5%)
Manwich Matchup: 7-11 (The Panthers lost to the Saints, and the Jets lost to the Rams once they had nothing to play for)
Upset Special: 7-9 (I didn’t have an upset special last week)

I didn’t think I’d ever go below 50% in a single week, and I did it a whopping 4 out of 17 weeks this year! Those 4 weeks, I went a combined 22-36 for a pathetic 38% success rate. The rest of the season actually went pretty well. I went 129-71 for a very good 65% success rate. It’s just that those 4 weeks brought me all the way down to 58.5%.

NFL Playoff Picks

Cohen already went through 3 of my rules for picking the playoffs in his column. Quick recap, and then we’ll add in 2 more.
Rule 1: It’s tough to beat a team you already beat. If you played a team once, the losing team OFTEN wins the rematch.
Rule 2: If you swept a team, you probably WILL beat them a 3rd time (This means Green Bay and St. Louis are in good situations.)
Rule 3: NO ONE wins consecutive weeks against the same team. This means that Denver has absolutely no chance this week against Peyton and the Colts. (Best example is when the Rams won vs. the Saints in 2000, only to play them again and then lose the rematch.)

Let’s add in the rest of the rules.
Rule 4: 8-8 Teams don’t win playoff games. They just don’t win games. It’s simple. The only problem is that the Rams are 8-8 but already swept the Seahawks. That’s a tossup situation.
Rule 5: AT LEAST 1 Home team will win in the final 4. Both road teams almost never win (last time was 1992 – Bills won in Miami, Dallas won in San Fran), though almost every year, there’s often times there is 1 upset in the final 4. This means that it’s really difficult for me to pick Colts over Falcons, since they both would likely have to win on the road.
As a matter of fact, 1996 was the last time both home teams won, and that was a fluky year with the Jags and Panthers (2 expansion teams) in the championship games. The last 8 years have seen exactly 1 road team win in the final 4, but the hardest question is always figuring out which team it will be.

AFC
NY Jets @ San Diego-
As Cohen pointed out in his column, these 2 teams met earlier in the season and the Jets won. Applying rule 1, San Diego should have no problem and be able to advance.
Pick: San Diego

Denver @ Indy-
Simple, apply rule 3. These teams played last week, and no one, I mean NO ONE can win 2 weeks in a row against the same team. And as Cohen pointed out, Peyton is playing this week.
Another question is which Champ Bailey will show up? Shut-down Champ, or the Champ that got burned by Chad Johnson and Peerless Price earlier this year?
Pick: Indy

NFC
Minnesota @ Green Bay-
I have to stick to my guns. Not only does Rule 2 apply, since Green Bay has swept Minnesota, but Rule 4 also applies, since Minnesota is now 8-8. Sorry, but my pre-season Super Bowl pick has hit the end of the road. Granted, it was a miracle for them to even make the playoffs the way they played the last 6 weeks. I think the Vikings only victory over the last 6 weeks was due to the Lions fumbling an extra point away! If I was Mike Tice, I would bring in a hypnotist to make everyone think it was week 7, when the Vikings always win.
Pick: Green Bay

St. Louis @ Seattle-
Now there are some problems with my rules here. First off, St. Louis swept Seattle (Rule 2). But St. Louis is 8-8 (Rule 4). Anything could happen in this game with these 2 rivals. I have to go with Seattle. If you look back, I’ve picked Seattle every time these 2 teams have matched up this year. It just seems ridiculous for Seattle to choke against the Rams for a 3rd straight game, and then they would be the most pathetic team for allowing an 8-8 team to advance.
Pick: Seattle

This is the one and only week where I’m going to forecast additional games.
AFC
The Colts will go to New England, and assuming the weather forecast stays the same, I’m applying Rule 1. Yes, New England beat the Colts in Week 1, and the Colts will get their revenge! And their revenge for last year’s AFC Championship game loss! Meanwhile, the Chargers will go to Pittsburgh, and as long as Roethlisberger’s ribs are healed, Pittsburgh should be fine. Finally, Peyton Manning will be able to abuse the Pittsburgh secondary, and put the Steelers behind for the first time since week 2, and Roethlisberger will force a couple of INTs, as the Colts go to the Super Bowl.
NFC
It’s a lot more simple in this conference. The most pivotal game would be Green Bay at Atlanta. Favre vs. Vick, the rematch (from the 2002 playoffs where Vick won in Green Bay). Ultimately, I see the Falcons running all over that weak Green Bay run defense. With Dunn, Duckett, and a healthy Vick, I don’t see Green Bay stopping that, and Favre will throw up enough interceptions. Meanwhile, Philadelphia will take care of Seattle. Atlanta will go to Philly, and the annual tradition of Philly losing in the NFC Championship game will continue. Without TO, there’s no hope. The Philly run defense is also weak, I mean the Browns were running all over them this season. In addition, the whole nation will realize that the Falcons 6’5” rookie receive Michael Jenkins is just unstoppable. And all of America will wonder, why didn’t this guy play during the season, and finally, my 2004 Fantasy sleeper will actually look good. And I will scream out, “REDEMPTION!”And my dream matchup will be complete. Manning vs. Vick. Completely going against my own Rule 5, since 2 road teams will win in the final 4. Manning has to get to the Super Bowl, and whatever inferior team from the NFC shows up will certainly lose.