Lost & Found: Rule 6

I’m so mad that I forgot about this rule. I forgot about Rule 6:

Rule 6: "If you beat a team by 30 or more points in the playoffs, you will lose your next game (90% of the time). If you beat a team by 40 or more points in the playoffs, you ALWAYS lose your next game. "

It’s a completely ridiculous rule, but somehow holds true the vast majority of the time. Recent examples: 1999 Jacksonville blows out Miami by 55 points, loses in the AFC Championship to Tennessee. 2002 NY Jets beats the Colts by 41 points, loses its next game to Oakland. 2000 NFC Championship game, the Giants beat the Vikings 43-0. Next week, they get blown out in the Super Bowl. 1993 NFC Playoffs – the 49ers blow out the Giants 44-3, only to lose in the NFC Championship game to the Cowboys.

My favorite example of all time though: the Buffalo Bills winning 51-3 in the 1990 AFC Championship game against the Raiders. Scott Norwood caps off the collapse by missing the field goal in the Super Bowl.
Indy was an exception in 2003, when they beat the Broncos by 31, then beat the Chiefs the next week. I guess you’re just supposed to blow out the Broncos each year.
The best explanation is overconfidence. A team just gets too cocky when this happens, and the other team gets so mad because they get ignored during the week by the media, and all the media does is focus on how the one team won a game by 40 points. It also forces the new opponent to make sure they make many creative adjustments, while the team that won by 40 points is hesitant to adjust anything.

A secondary explanation is the “I just blew my load” theory. That’s right, you blow your whole load on one game, with nothing left, no energy, no determination, and you don’t even give a full effort in practice the next week, and all the players end up doing lines off of their favorite strippers.

I’d also like to introduce a rule, that is as simple as can be…
Rule 7 - #1 seeds NEVER lose to #6 seeds. 8-0 all-time, now 9-0.

I’d like to now say, that nothing would surprise me with the final 4 we have. Anything is possible, as all 4 have great strengths, and some weaknesses.

Atlanta @ Philadelphia-
Houston. We have a problem. I’ve been saying ALL SEASON that is the Eagles destiny to lose in the final 4. In addition, I’ve been on the Vick-Duckett-Dunn triumvirate bandwagon almost all season. Destiny says Falcons, meanwhile, the Falcons won by exactly 30 points last week, so Rule 6 says Eagles. I have to stick w/ the Rules.
Pick: Eagles

New England @ Pittsburgh-
Rule 5: AT LEAST 1 Home team will win in the final 4. Both road teams almost never win (last time was 1992 – Bills won in Miami, Dallas won in San Fran), though almost every year, there’s often times there is 1 upset in the final 4. This means that it’s really difficult for me to pick Colts over Falcons, since they both would likely have to win on the road.

So, we’ll stick w/ the rules. The Eagles win at home, allowing the Patriots to win on the road.
Pick: Patriots

I also learned something last weekend, that I'm really going to take to heart. Since the playoffs expanded in 1990, only 11 road teams have won in the divisional round. ELEVEN!!!! Think about that. I tried to think of them off the top of my head, and I almost did it. Just for educational value, let’s take a look at the Exciting Eleven:

1992 Buffalo – after the greatest comeback in NFL history in the 1st round against the Oilers, there was no stopping these guys from losing in the Super Bowl. They were 11-5, and won at Pittsburgh (11-5) then 11-5 Miami.
1993 Kansas City – 11-5 won at 12-4 Houston. Houston had lots of trouble in the playoffs, even though they were immensely talented.
1995 Indy – 9-7 won at 13-3 and #1 seed! KC. KC was coached by Marty Schottenheimer. We’ll call this the Schottenheimer effect.
1995 Green Bay – 11-5 won at 11-5 San Fran. Not much of an upset.
1996 Jacksonville – 9-7 won at 13-3 and #1 seed Denver. I think this is the most shocking upset of the modern playoff era. Denver went on to win the next 2 Super Bowls, but this Jacksonville team rolled into town on a 7-game losing streak (went from 3-7 to 9-7 to make the playoffs, and then won at Buffalo & Denver).
1997 Denver – 12-4 Denver won at #1 seed 13-3 KC. Schottenheimer effect.
1999 Tennessee – Music City Miracle in 1st round. Resulted in 12-4 winning at 13-3 Indy. Jim Mora effect. Mora never won a playoff game.
2000 Baltimore – 12-4 at #1 seed Tennessee. Hungrier team, w/ no respect from media or Gutsy Goldberg.
2001 Philly – 11-5 won at 13-3 Chicago. Chicago won at least 4 games they shouldn’t have. No won outside of Mike Ditka was surprised.
2003 Carolina- 11-5 won at 12-4 St. Louis. Double OT. Carolina proved they had passing attack in playoffs. Martz is a crazy head coach, who caused another loss.
2003 Indy- 12-4 won at 13-3 KC. KC had no defense, finished the season 3-3, won 4 extra games just from Dante Hall’s returns.

Last week 3-1 (Damn Colts. Thanks for not using the no-huddle the whole game. Thanks for not even attempting to throw the ball 20 yards downfield)
Playoffs: 4-4 (Pathetic, I know)