Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Welcome to the 2008 NFL Playoffs!

It's time for the NFL Playoffs, one of my favorite times of the year. Let's do it!

3-Miami vs. 6-Baltimore - This certainly was not expected by anyone. Two first year coaches. Two teams that thought they had long rebuilding projects. In the end though, my hatred of the Ravens is the difference maker, as is usual. I just don't trust Flacco, and no one else should either because we all know he's Cobra.
Pick: Miami

4-San Diego vs. 5-Indy - This is, far and away, the game of the week. The Chargers and Colts keep having clashes. Let's recap:
2008 - Indy wins during reg. season (23-20)
2007 - SD wins during reg. season behind multi-INT game by Cromartie, and SD upsets the Colts in the playoffs
2005 - SD ruins the Colts perfect season, sending the Colts into a weird tailspin to end the season that ends in a loss to the Steelers.
However, before anyone gives me the whole, "the Chargers are 8-8, you can't seriously be considering them!" I want to remind everyone that the Chargers have already: (1) lost in the last second to CAR, (2) lost to Denver when Hochuli got on his knees and blew the call; (3) lost by 7 to Miami, 1 to Pittsburgh, 3 to Indy, and 6 to Atlanta. What does this all mean? It means the Chargers are much better than just "some 8-8 team."
As further proof of that, Pro Football Reference runs an expected win-loss formula... and the Chargers are expected to be better than 10-6 (10.2-5.8). The Colts? They are also "expected" to be 10.2-5.8 ! This game is a complete toss-up also because both teams are red-hot, and the Steelers (Roethlisberger concussion) and the Titans (QB = Kerry Collins?) have issues. In a lot of ways... the winner of this game can determine the AFC's super bowl participant!
So how do I determine the winner of this game? Here's my arbitrary method this time: the Colts haven't played a tough team since November! The Chargers meanwhile, already were in two ridiculous games against teams that were desperate (Tampa and then Denver). Of course, both Tampa and Denver failed to make the playoffs. Before the Colts easy end to the season (Cleveland, Cincy, Detroit, Jacksonville, Tennessee w/o starters), the Colts had already beaten Minnesota, Baltimore, New England, and Pittsburgh. Again, my method has proved useless... so, I'm doing the unthinkable.
Pick: San Diego

3-Minnesota vs. 6-Philly - This should be an interesting game, but I still can't figure out the Eagles - they've beaten the Cowboys by 38, lost by 29 to the Ravens, tied the Bengals, and beaten the Steelers! I think that Minnesota's steady running game and defense and homefield should prevail.
Pick: Minnesota

4-Arizona vs. 5-Atlanta - This is another completely unexpected playoff matchup. In the end, the Cardinals are 6-0 in their crappy division and 3-7 versus everyone else. At least they get a home playoff game.
Pick: Atlanta

Now I’m going to pick the whole playoff tree, but I’ll be back each week to pick the matchups. So, it’s time to get to what I’m seeing in my crystal ball (which never actually happens)…

AFC
3-Miami vs. 2-Pittsburgh - Wildcat! It's the word of the year! I think the dream-ride comes to an end though. Will Roethlisberger still be shaken up from the concussion? No one knows, but I'll assume he's okay.
Pick: Pittsburgh

1-Tennessee vs. 4-San Diego - Last year, the Chargers beat the Titans in a slugfest. I say, "encore, encore!"
Pick: San Diego

4-San Diego vs. 2-Pittsburgh - remember, I'm assuming Roethlisberger is okay.
Pick: Pittsburgh

NFC
3-Minnesota vs. 2- CAR - Both of these teams can run and play defense. However, the Panthers just need to hit Steve Smith on one or two home-runs and that should be the difference.
Pick: CAR

1-Giants vs. 4-Atlanta - I assume the Falcons dream-ride comes to an end.
Pick: Giants

1-Giatns vs. 2-CAR - Rematch city! My theory on rematches is that the lost comes back to bite the winner in the arse.
Pick: CAR

Super Bowl:
CAR vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: CAR
-I don't know how anyone will stop the Panthers duo of RBs. I think this year is more wide-open than ever, hence my unconventional picks and I really wouldn't be surprised by anything at this point.

Final Stats From the Regular Season
Last Week: 11-5
Yahoo “Average”: 160-95 (I found out that this is not an average, it’s just that if 51% of the nation picks a team, than that counts as one game correct. Basically, this is almost the same as “picking the favorites.”)
Me: 149-106-1 (as I’ve said before, I’m like the San Antonio Spurs, and I only pick well in the odd years for some reason.)
Manwich: 11-8 (thanks Chargers)
Upset Special: 1-16 (I jinxed the Chiefs into losing to the Bungals)

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