Big East - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2009

The Big East Conference has 11 teams that can merit consideration on selection sunday. The conference will probably only get 7 or 8 teams in, but at this point, 11 are still in the running.

UConn, Sag #2, kenpom offense #14, kenpom defense #4, 1st in conference at 15-2, 27-2
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Miami (FL), Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Notre Dame (twice), Nova, Louisville
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Georgetown, Pitt (that's it)
3P% - 36.5%, Reb. Margin = +8.8 , FT 69.2%, FG 47.6%, Opp. FG 37.4% –
The Huskies lost G Jerome Dyson for the season on 2/11. Since then, they have won 3 of 4, losing to only Pitt. They have a week off to prepare for another matchup w/ Pitt on 3/7. UConn is still a force and could still go to the final 4... but it seems hard to pick them to win it all without one of their top players, though I'm still on the fence. They still have future top-5 nba pick C 7'3" Hasheem Thabeet (13.4ppg, 4.4 blocks, 10.5 rebs, 64.46% FG%), F 6'7" Jeff Adrien (13.8 ppg, 10.2 rebs), and 6'2" G AJ Price (12.3ppg, 4.5 assists, 40.4% 3-point%).

Louisville, Sag #7, kenpom offense #47, kenpom defense #2, 2nd in conference at 13-2, 22-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: S. Alabama, Ole Miss, UAB, Kentucky, Nova, Notre Dame (split), Pitt, Syracuse
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: W. Kentucky, Minnesota, UNLV, UConn, Notre Dame (split)
3P% - 35.6%, Reb. Margin = +3.6 , FT 65.2%, FG 44.7%, Opp. FG 39.4% –
Their numbers aren't actually that great... but they started the season very slow, with three questionable non-conference losses (W. Kentucky Minnesota, UNLV). They still have Pitino as coach, and are led by F 6'9" Earl Clark (13 ppg, 8.7 rebs, 41% FG%), F 6'6" Terrence Williams (12.6ppg, 4.7assists, 8.4 rebs, 35.8% 3-point %), and 6'9" F Samardo Samuels (12.2ppg, 4.8 rebs, 58.1% FG%). I really can't figure these guys out to be honest.

Pitt, Sag #3, kenpom offense #2, kenpom defense #31, 3rd in conference at 13-3, 26-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wash St, Siena, Fla St, Georgetown, Syracuse, UConn
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Louisville, Villanova, Providence (that's it)
3P% - 36.5%, Reb. Margin = +10.5 , FT 66.7%, FG 48.1%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
It's three outstanding players that make this team one of the best in the country. There's 6'7" DeJuan Blair (Barkley-style body), who gets 15.8ppg, 13 rebs, and 59.5FG%. They also have 6'6" F Sam Young (18.1 ppg, 5.7 rebs, 35.6 3-point, 49.7 FG%) and 5'10" G Levance Fields (10.9 ppg, 7.5 assists!, 1.9 TOs, 36% 3-point). Obviously, this is one of the teams to watch.

Marquette, Sag #20, kenpom offense #7, kenpom defense #57, 4th in conference at 12-3, 23-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wis Milwaukee, Wisconsin, NC St, Villanova (split), W. Virginia, Georgetown (twice), Notre Dame
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Dayton, Tennessee, So. Florida, UConn, Louisville
3P% - 35.7%, Reb. Margin = +2.3 , FT 70.9%, FG 46.8%, Opp. FG 44.1% –
Marquette relies on an incredible trio of guards who are all seniors. Unfortunately, one of them (Dominic James, 11.7 ppg, 42.3% FG%, 5.3 assists) went down with a knee injury last week and will be out for the season. I was considering placing them as a Final 4 dark horse, but w/o this main cog, it seems like the sweet 16 could be the limit for this team. It's sad, because last year, they lost in the 2nd round to Stanford (and the 7 foot Lopez twins) in an OT-thriller. They still have 6'3" Senior G Jerel McNeal (20ppg, 4.1 assits, 4.7 rebs, 43.4% 3-point), senior G 6'5" Wesley Matthews (18.7 ppg, 5.3 rebs, 41.6% 3-point), and 6'6" F Lazar Howard (16ppg, 8.6rebs, 46.4%FG%). They are a small team, as they were last year.

Villanova, Sag #18, kenpom offense #26, kenpom defense #28, 5th in conference at 11-5, 23-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Temple, Pitt, Syracuse (twice), Marquette,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Texas, Louisville, UConn, W. Virginia, Georgetown
3P% - 36.2%, Reb. Margin = +4.5 , FT 73.9%, FG 46.4%, Opp. FG 40.1% –
Villanova didn't play a tought non-conference schedule, but does have a victory over Pitt. They have 2 main players leading the way: 6'8" Dante Cunningham (16.3 ppg, 7.3 rebs, 54.5% FG%) and 6'2" Scottie Reynolds (15.3 ppg, 3.7 assists, 35.5% 3point). Again, this is another team that is hard to figure out. Looking back, it appears they beat Pitt by getting DeJuan Blair in foul trouble.

Providence, Sag #68, kenpom offense #46, kenpom defense #128, 6th in conference at 9-7, 17-11
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Charlotte, Syracuse, Pitt
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Northeastern, Baylor, St. Mary's (the good one), Boston College, W. Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgetown
3P% - 32.1%, Reb. Margin = +1.4 , FT 67.3%, FG 45.3%, Opp. FG 44.9% –
This team's numeric profiles are poor. Very poor! Nonetheless, they are in bubble watch contention for their solid conference record and the victory over Pitt, but would still need to win games in the conference tourney. They have balanced scoring among 5 players (with a sixth getting 8.7 rebs). The leading scorer is 6'5" G Weyinmi Efejku (14.4ppg, 4.1 rebs, 37.1% 3-point). I'm not expecting much from this team. Their win over Pitt also included foul trouble for Blair, just like Villanova's. I think there's a trend here!

Syracuse, Sag #24, kenpom offense #19, kenpom defense #53, 8th in conference at 8-7, 20-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Florida, Kansas, Virginia, Memphis, Notre Dame, Georgetown (split), Cincy
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Cleveland St (on buzzer beater), Pitt, Louisville, Providence, Villanova (twice), UConn
3P% - 34.8%, Reb. Margin = +2.5 , FT 64.1%, FG 49.0%, Opp. FG 41.7% –
Syracuse has a much more impressive resume than Providence, especially as Kansas and Memphis continue to win. They should probably make the tourney, short of a 1-st round exit from the big-east tourney. Note: they have a poor FT% for some reason. They are led by 6'0" Johnny Flynn (17.3 ppg, 6.1 assists, 33.7% 3-point), 6'4" G Eric Devendorf (15.9ppg, 3.4 TOs, 38% 3-point), F 6'4" Paul Harris (12.9ppg, 8 rebs, 50.6% FG%). Their other F is 6'9" and gets 7.5 rebs.

West Virginia, Sag #15, kenpom offense #34, kenpom defense #6, 8th in conference at 8-7, 19-9
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Iowa, Ole Miss, Cleve St, Ohio St, Georgetown, Villanova, Notre Dame,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Kentucky, Davidson, UConn, Marquette, Cincy
3P% - 32.3%, Reb. Margin = +4.8 , FT 68.2%, FG 43.1%, Opp. FG 42.0% –
Other than their loss to Cincy in the Big East, W. Virginia seems to beat the teams they are supposed to beat, and lose to the teams they should lose to. The non-conference win over Ohio State should be helpful. They are led by 2 players: 6'7" F Da'Sean Butler (18.1 ppg, 5.7 rebs, 38.5% 3-point), and 6'6" G Alex Ruoff (16.1 ppg, 3.6 assits, 3.6 rebs, and 37.7% 3-point).

Cincy, Sag #45, kenpom offense #56, kenpom defense #71, 8th in conference at 8-7, 18-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNLV, UAB, Miss St, Georgetown (twice), Notre Dame, W. Virginia
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Fla. St, Xavier, Memphis, Providence (twice), Villanova, Syracuse
3P% - 34.6%, Reb. Margin = +4.2 , FT 66.8%, FG 43.3%, Opp. FG 41.3% –
It's a very thin profile... and they will need to win a lot of games in the tourney still to have a chance. Leading scorer is 6'1" Deonta Vaughn (15.5 ppg, 4.7 assists, 3.4 TOs, 38.7 FG%).

Notre Dame, Sag #37, kenpom offense #5, kenpom defense #121, 10th in conference at 7-9, 16-12
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Texas, Georgetown, Louisville,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UNC, Ohio St, St. John's, Cincy, UConn (twice), West Virginia
3P% - 40.4%, Reb. Margin = +2.0 , FT 70.8%, FG 44.3%, Opp. FG 43.5% –
Notre Dame once was a top 10 team... and have struggled immensely once Big East play began. They had a 7-game losing streak at one point, including a loss to fellow bubble team Cincy. Not only that, their absurd 45-game home winning streak (and extremely impressive 20-game conference streak) came to an end and they couldn't recover. Their team 3-point % is absurd. However, as you can see from the defensive rank and opp. FG% they don't play defense at all. Are they still a dangerous team? You bet. But their disappointments in the tourney the last 2 seasons (losses to Wash St in 2nd round last year, loss to Winthrop in 1st round in 2007) may prove to be the only appearances for the duo of senior 6'0" G Kyle McAlarney (16.3 ppg, 3.5 assists, 43.9% 3-pointers, four 3-pointers per game) and junior 6'8" FLuke Harangody (24.2ppg, 12.5 rebs, 47.9% FG%).

Georgetown, Sag #32, kenpom offense #28, kenpom defense #26, 11th in conference at 6-10, 15-12
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Maryland, Memphis, UConn, Syracuse, Villanova,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Tennessee, Pitt, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Cincy (twice), Marquette (twice)
3P% - 34.2%, Reb. Margin = -0.2 , FT 71.5%, FG 47.3%, Opp. FG 41.1% –
Georgetown was a top-10 ranked team when Big East play began... and they have just had lots of problems. They've only won 3 of their last 12 and obviously need to win both of their last 2 games (against bottom-feeders St. John's DePaul) to reach 8-10 in conference play and then would have to probably get to the conference finals... and even then that may not be enough. It's strange because their numbers, other than the rebounding margin, are very solid (computer ranking, offensive and defensive rankings). They also have great wins over Memphis and UConn and Villanova. All the losses in conference play are killer though. They are led by 6'8" F Dajuan Summers (14 ppg, 4.5 rebs, 41.6% 3-point) and freshman 6'11" C Greg Monroe (13ppg, 1.5 blocks, 6.8 rebs, 56.7 % FG%). I still wouldn't want to play them in the tourney.