Pot Luck - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2009

Here's my final group of teams to preview. I'm including any other relevant teams I can think of, though I'm sure I left off some (most notably the SEC).

Oklahoma, Sag #8, kenpom offense #4, kenpom defense #51, 2nd in conference at 13-3, 27-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Davidson, UAB, Purdue, USC, Utah, VCU, Texas (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Arkansas, Texas, Kansas, Missouri
3P% - 36.4%, Reb. Margin = +5.5 , FT 67.8%, FG 48.9%, Opp. FG 39.7% –
I was actually surprised when I looked at Oklahoma's profile - it's not dominating, despite the lofty ranking and eventual #1 selection of 6'10" Blake Griffin in this year's draft (22.1ppg, 14.2 rebs, 63.4% FG%). The surprising thing is that they lost to Kansas and Missouri in the only meetings, though Blake Griffin did not play in the loss to Texas or Kansas. Basically, when Griffin is healthy, they tend to meet the challenge almost any night. The free throw shooting is a little poor. The two shooters opposite B. Griffin are 6'4" freshman Willie Warren (14.7 ppg, 3.1 assists, 2.1 TOs, 37.8% 3-point) and 6'6" junio Tony Crocker (9.6ppg, 3.3 rebs, 36.6% 3-point). Blake's 6'7" brother, Taylor, chips in 9.7 ppg, 6 rebs, and 53.8% FG%.

Kansas, Sag #10, kenpom offense #19, kenpom defense #14, 1st in conference at 14-2, 25-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Washington, Tennessee, Siena, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Syracuse, Umass (by one), Arizona, Michigan St, Texas Tech
3P% - 38.3%, Reb. Margin = +7.3 , FT 72.9%, FG 48.1%, Opp. FG 38.6% –
I can't believe how good Kansas is removed, a year after winning the championship and losing most of the roster. Based off of their numbers alone, this team almost looks as good as last year's team! In fact, if you look at last year's team, it's almost the exact same numbers (except there are more losses). The other difference? Last year's Kansas team was top-5 in offense and defense according to Pomeroy. 5'11" junior Sherron Collins leads the team with 18.3 ppg, 5assists, 3.3 TOs, 38.2% 3-point. 6'11" sophomore center Cole Adrich (14.8ppg, 10.5 rebs, 2.5 blocks, 60% FG%), 6'3" freshman guard Tyshawn Taylor (10.0ppg, 3.1 assists, 51% FG%). Two other sophomores (Morningstar and Reed) hit 45% and 39% from 3-point land. This is going to be a dangerous team in the tourney, despite my initial doubts of whether they reloaded enough from last season.

Missouri, Sag #12, kenpom offense #18, kenpom defense #17, 3rd in conference at 12-4, 25-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: USC, California, Texas, Kansas (split), Oklahoma
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Xavier, Illinois, Nebraska, Kansas St, Texas A&M
3P% - 36.3%, Reb. Margin = +0.3 , FT 66.6%, FG 47.3%, Opp. FG 42.0% –
This team does not rebound well or shoot free throws well, which is going to doom them in the tourney. Their win over Oklahoma was when Griffin was playing at least. Two players lead the way for Missouri: senior 6'8" F DeMarre Carroll (17.1ppg, 7.3rebs, 56.7% FG% ) and senior 6'9" F Leo Lyons (14.4 ppg, 5.8 rebs, 49.8% FG%). Their best 3-point threat, senior 6'7" Matt Lawrence, averages 2 for 5 every game from downtown. It's surprising that their two best players are forwards, yet they hardly outrebound anyone. I was excited about this team when they beat Oklahoma, but now, I'm not as excited.

Texas, Sag #26, kenpom offense #48, kenpom defense #23, 4th in conference at 9-7, 20-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UCLA, Villanova, Wisconsin, Oklahoma (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Notre Dame, Mich St, Arkansas, Kansas St, Missouri, Nebraska
3P% - 31.8%, Reb. Margin = +5.1 , FT 67.2%, FG 43.9%, Opp. FG 41.0% –
Their team is terrible at shooting 3-pointers, but senior 5'11" G AJ Abrams (16.7ppg, 38.8% FG%) still shoots 38.9% from 3-point land. 6'7" Junior F Damion Jones (15.9ppg, 9.4 rebs, 47.5% FG%) and sophomore 6'6" F Gary Johnson (11ppg, 5.7rebs, 46% FG%) provide support. This team is kind of unpredictable. They don't play particularly great defense, but have some fantastic wins over UCLA, 'Nova, and Wisconsin.

Memphis, Sag #5, kenpom offense #36, kenpom defense #1, 1st in conference at 16-0, 28-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Cincy, UAB (twice), Tennessee, Gonzaga
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Xavier, Georgetown, Syracuse (that's it)
3P% - 32.9%, Reb. Margin = +5.8 , FT 69.3%, FG 44.5%, Opp. FG 36.8% –
Memphis has reloaded quickly, yet again. This time, the freshman PG is 6'6" Tyreke Evans (16.9ppg, 3.7 assits, 3.5TOs, 5.5 rebs, an awful 30% 3-point%). Senior F 6'9" Robert Dozier (12.9ppg, 6.9 rebs, 52% FG%, 1.7 blocks), senior 6'6" G Antonio Anderson (10.5ppg, 4.2 assists, 5.0 rebs, 43% FG% ), and Junior 6'10" F Shawn Taggart (10.4ppg, 7.4 rebs, 49.6% FG%) are the other main contributors. This is a very large team, in that it seems like all the main players are over 6'5", and they will be larger than most other teams in the tourney. They don't have 3-point threats, which indicates that if they get behind, they could be in trouble.

Xavier, Sag #24, kenpom offense #44, kenpom defense #22, 1st in conference at 12-4, 24-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Missouri, Va Tech, Memphis, Auburn, Cincy, LSU, Dayton (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Duke, Butler, Duquesne, Charlotte, Richmond
3P% - 39.6%, Reb. Margin = +8.5 , FT 67.9%, FG 46.7%, Opp. FG 38.8% –
This Xavier team isn't quite as good as last year's edition that made the Elite 8, but this year's team could still win a game or two with their defense, 3-point shooting, and rebounding. They are led by senior G/F 6'6" BJ Raymond (13.8ppg, 4.2 rebs, 46% FG%, 41% 3-point), 6'8" junior F Derrick Brown (13.8ppg, 6.1 rebs, 42.7% 3-point ), and senior 6'6" G/F CJ Anderson (10.2ppg, 5.6 rebs).

Dayton, Sag #59, kenpom offense #143, kenpom defense #39, 2nd in conference at 11-5, 25-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Auburn, Marquette (in November when they were healthy), Xavier (split), Temple, George Mason
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Creighton, UMass, Charlotte, St. Louis, Rhode Island
3P% - 33.5%, Reb. Margin = +4.6 , FT 65.5%, FG 42.8%, Opp. FG 39.3% –
This team's profile does not look nearly as good as I expected it to be, especially with ESPN constantly projecting this team to be in the tourney. Even if they make the tourney, it's hard to have much confidence with them, given the sub-par stats, despite the fact that they were able to beat Marquette when they were healthy. They have a very balanced attack, but are led by sophomore 6'8" F Chris Wright (13.1ppg, 6.5rebs, 48% FG%) and 6'3" junior G Marcus Johnson (12.1ppg, 3.2rebs, 47.2% FG%).

Gonzaga, Sag #11, kenpom offense #13, kenpom defense #15, 1st in conference at 14-0, 24-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Ok St, Maryland, Tennessee (twice), Wash St, St. Mary's (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Arizona, UConn, Portland St, Utah, Memphis
3P% - 39.0%, Reb. Margin = +3.2 , FT 70.6%, FG 48.3%, Opp. FG 37.2% –
I was surprised when I found all of the numbers on Gonzaga, as their profile is even better than I expected, outside of their rebounding numbers. Their only chance for a super-marquee victory was over UConn and Memphis where they lost by 5 and by 18 (as they were outrebounded 39-25). Returning after his legal problems, senior 6'11" F Josh Heytvelt has been superb, getting 15.2 ppg, 6.8rebs, and 54.9% FG%. Also contributing are Junior 6'5" G Matt Bouldin (13.8ppg, 43.8% 3-point), sophomore 6'11" F Austin Daye (12.6ppg, 6.9rebs, 2.1blocks, 39.7% 3-point), and 6'2" senior PG Jeremy Pargo (9.6ppg, 5.1 assits, 2.6 TOs, 45% FG%). Notably, Daye is 6'11" but only weighs 200 pounds. Yikes! I think what this means is that this team will get pushed around by any team with bona fide big men (i.e. Arizona, UConn, Memphis, etc.).

St. Mary's, Sag #48, kenpom offense #56, kenpom defense #66, 2nd in conference at 10-4, 24-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: San Diego St, Providence, Oregon, Utah St.
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UTEP, Gonzaga (twice), Portland, Santa Clara
3P% - 33.7%, Reb. Margin = +7.3 , FT 69.5%, FG 44.9%, Opp. FG 40.6% –
As everyone has been reporting, this team has only one loss when sophomore 6'0" PG Patrick Mills (18.7ppg, 3.8assists, 2.5rebs, 36% 3-point) plays, and that was to UTEP at the beginning of the season. Other contributors are junior 6'11" C Omar Samhan (13.7ppg, 9.2 rebs, 2blocks, 56% FG%) and 6'7" senior F Diamon Simpson (13.6ppg, 10.7rebs, 1.8blocks, 51% FG%). I'd be scared to play them in the 1st round, assuming everyone is healthy. They don't have any real 3-point threats outside of the star PG Mills.

Creighton, Sag #53, kenpom offense #53, kenpom defense #86, 1st in conference at 14-4, 26-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Dayton, New Mexico (1st in Mountain West), No. Iowa (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: AR Little Rock, Nebraska, Illinois St, Wichita St, Drake
3P% - 38.3%, Reb. Margin = +5.3 , FT 75.1%, FG 44.6%, Opp. FG 42.1% –
I don't believe this profile will be good enough for Creighton to get an at-large, as they lost in the semis on saturday... by 24 points! Even if they do get in, the numbers don't look great so I'm not even sure if I'd like their chances. They are led by senior 6'1" G Booker Woodfox (15.9ppg, 48.9% 3-point, making almost 3 per game!) and sophmore 6'3" G P'Allen Stinnett (12.2 ppg, 2.9 rebs, 43% FG%).

Butler, Sag #27, kenpom offense #59, kenpom defense #42, 1st in conference at 15-3, 26-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Northwestern, Xavier, UAB, Davidson, Cleve St (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Ohio St, Wis. Green Bay, Loyola Chicago, Wis. Milwaukee
3P% - 35.6%, Reb. Margin = +3.2 , FT 72.5%, FG 44.0%, Opp. FG 38.0% –
Butler will be playing Cleveland St on tuesday in their tourney final (though Butler is in no matter what happens). Butler's numbers are once again solid and should be considered dangerous in the tourney, though the 3-point shooting is not as good as it used to be (but the rebounding is better). The team is led by 6'8" sophomore F Matt Howard (14.6ppg, 6.8rebs, 55% FG%), 6'8" freshman F Gordon Hayward (13.4ppg, 6.4rebs, 45% 3-point), and 6'3" freshman G Shelvin Mack (11.5ppg, 4.2rebs, 3.5assists, 2.2 TOs, 39% FG%). It's a young team... and they look just as good as past Butler teams!

Siena, Sag #62, kenpom offense #49, kenpom defense #102, 1st in conference at 16-2, 24-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Cornell, Buffalo, No. Iowa
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Tennessee, Wichita St, Ok St, Pitt, Kansas, Rider, Niagara (split)
3P% - 33.1%, Reb. Margin = -0.4 , FT 66.7%, FG 47.2%, Opp. FG 43.9% –
Siena keeps getting mentioned as a possible at-large candidate. They lack any marquee wins. If they get in, I wouldn't trust them, based on the awful rebounding, 3-point shooting, and defensive numbers. They are led by 6'3" senior Kenny Hasbrouck (14.9ppg, 36% 3-point), 6'6" junior Edwin Ubiles (14.8ppg, 5 rebs, 49% FG%) and 6'5" junior Alex Franklin (13.5ppg, 7.4 rebs, 56% FG%). This team blew out Vanderbilt last year in the 1st round, then lost to 12-seeded Villanova in one of those silly 12-13 matchups.