PAC-10 & Mountain West Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2009

The Big 10 is ranked is just fractions behind the ACC for best conference this year, according to Sagarin. The Big 10, unlike the ACC, is short on top, elite teams and long on teams that are all of the same caliber. An indication of this is that ESPN currently is slating 8 teams to make the dance. Thus, we'll take a look at 9 of them.

Also note... based on an article I read by Luke Winn on SI, it appears that I should be including an extra stat (kenpom's offensive and defensive ratings). Winn claims that "No Final Four team in the past five years has been ranked outside the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (a competition-adjusted figure). And only two Elite Eight teams in the past five years have ranked outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency." Winn also claims that "contenders" have offensive AND defensive ratings in the top 20.

Washington, Sag #19, kenpom offense #29, kenpom defense #15, 1st in conference at 13-4, 22-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Cleveland St, Ok State, UCLA (split), Arizona St (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Portland, Kansas, Florida, California (twice)
3P% - 33.8%, Reb. Margin = +8.9 , FT 70.1%, FG 45.9%, Opp. FG 42.4% –
The Huskies leading scorer is none other than freshman 5'8" G Isaiah Thomas (15.9 ppg, 2.7assits, 2.8 TOs). He's on a quest to restore goodwill to his name, in the many years that have passed since Isiah Thomas retired from the NBA and created a path of destruction. The Huskies rely on 5'11" Justin Dentmon (15.8 ppg, 46.6% 3P%) and big man 6'7" Jon Brockman (14.6ppg, 11.3 rebounds). There is no clear assists leader, which could prove to be a problem. They also seem to give up a lot of turnovers. I'm actually surprised at how un-inspiring their profile is, considering they are leading the PAC-10.

UCLA, Sag #16, kenpom offense #3, kenpom defense #47, 2nd in conference at 11-5, 22-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: So. Ill, DePaul, Notre Dame, Washington (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Michigan, Texas, Ariz St (twice), Arizona, Wash St
3P% - 40.3%, Reb. Margin = +3.5 , FT 71.1%, FG 50.3%, Opp. FG 45.2% –
UCLA was supposed to have an amazing freshman class, but they haven't been as good as they were hyped to be. That final 4 streak will probably come to an end this season. I'm not even that confident about them making the sweet 16, sadly. They've been stumbling down the stretch, losing 3 of their last 6. They are led by senior G 6'0" Darren Collison (15 ppg, 5 assits, 1.7 steals, 41.5% 3-point, 53.6% FG%) and 6'5" Josh Shipp (13 ppg, 40.2% 3-point), and 6'9" Aboya (9.9 ppg, 6 rebs, 58% FG%).

Arizona St, Sag #22, kenpom offense #10, kenpom defense #24, 3rd in conference at 10-6, 21-7
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UTEP, BYU, UCLA (twice),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Cal, Baylor, USC, Wash st (twice), Washington (twice)
3P% - 35.9%, Reb. Margin = +2.7 , FT 73.9%, FG 48.3%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
Arizona St is led by a bona fide NBA prospect in James Harden. They have been real inconsistent in conference play, but their numbers look real good across the board (for whatever that is worth). Harden, a 6'5" sophomore, gets 21.2 ppg, 4.2 assists, 5.6 rebs, and 37.9% 3-point %. 6'9" F Jeff Pendergraph gets 13.8 ppg, 8.2 rebs, and 66.8 FG%, while 6'6" G/F Rihards Kuksiks gets 10.4 ppg, 3.8 rebs, on an absurb 47.6% 3 point % (averaing almost 3 threes per game amazingly). I think I like this team the best out of the others from the PAC-10.

California, Sag #27, kenpom offense #12, kenpom defense #74, 3rd in conference at 10-6, 21-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UNLV, DePaul, Utah, Arizona St, Washington (twice),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Fla St, Missouri, Stanford, Oregon St (twice!), UCLA (twice)
3P% - 44.2% (wow!), Reb. Margin = +3.3 , FT 75.8%, FG 49.1%, Opp. FG 43.7% –
This team is led by 3 guards who all shoot 3-pointers, and they have one main forward. The guards are 5'10" Jerome Randle (17.8 ppg, 4.9 assists, 45.1% 3-point), 6'5" Patrick Christopher (14.4 ppg, 3.7 rebs, 40.6 3-point, and 6'6" Theo Robertson (12.3 pg, 3.8 rebs, 54% 3-point, avg 1.7 per 3.2 3-point attempts per game). 6'8" F Jamal Boykin gets 10.2 ppg, 6.6 reb, and 52.9 FG%. The strangest thing is they have 3 losses in conference to teams that have nothing to play for!

Arizona, Sag #40, kenpom offense #8, kenpom defense #100, 5th in conference at 8-8, 18-11
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Gonzaga, Kansas, Washington (split), UCLA (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UAB by 1-point (early on, when they had a full team), Texas A&M by 1-point, UNLV, Stanford, USC (split), Ariz St (twice), Wash St (split
3P% - 39.9%, Reb. Margin = +2.6 , FT 72.6%, FG 47.3%, Opp. FG 42.9% –
It's been a real up-and down season for Arizona. They had one 7 straight in conference - but this was after a 3-game losing streak and now they are on another 3-game losing streak! Arizona, as what seems usual for them, does not play defense well at all. They are led by 6'10" Jordan Hill (18 ppg, 11.1 rebs, 54.8% FG%), 6'7" F Chase Budinger (17.8 ppg, 6.6 rebs, 41.6% 3-point), and 5'10" G Nic Wise (14.8 ppg, 4.7 assists, 42.6% 3-point). Arizona will need to win some games between now and selection sunday to get chosen, even w/ the wins over Gonzaga and Kansas.

Washington St, Sag #59, kenpom offense #102, kenpom defense #13, 6th in conference at 8-9, 16-13
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Idaho?, Ariz St (twice), UCLA (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Pitt, Baylor, Gonzaga, LSU, USC (twice), Stanford, Oregon St (split)
3P% - 35.9%, Reb. Margin = +3.2 , FT 77.3%, FG 44.0%, Opp. FG 38.8% –
This team needs a lot of wins at the end to have a chance. No real quality wins outside conference play. They are led by balanced scoring from 6'1" G Taylor Rochestie (13.3 ppg, 4.7 assists, 41.2% 3-point), 6'6" G Klay Thompson (13.0 ppg, 4.1 rebs, 42.6% 3-point), 6'10" C Aron Baynes (12ppg, 7.3 rebs, 58.3% FG%).

USC, Sag #47, kenpom offense #70, kenpom defense #25, 8th in conference at 7-9, 16-12
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: N. Dakota St, Georgia Tech, Ariz St (split), Arizona (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Seton Hall, Missouri, Oklahoma, UCLA (twice), Washington (twice), Stanford (split)
3P% - 32.6%, Reb. Margin = +5.2 , FT 67.1%, FG 46.7%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
They've lost 6 of 7, so now they need to win almost every game. Heralded freshman DeMar DeRozan is nowhere near as skilled as OJ Mayo was last year. 6'5" Dwight Lewis gets 15.4 ppg, 3.1 reb, 39.4% 3-point, 6'9" F Taj Gibson gets 13.8ppg, 9.3 rebs, and 57.5% FG%, 6'7" DeRozan gets 12.6 ppg, 2.2 TOs, 5.5 rebs, and 50% FG%.

Mountain West
The Mountain West conference this season is just fractional points behind the SEC in the Sagarin conference rankings. It is completely unclear which teams from this group will get bids, but it seems like this conference could snag 3 bids given certain outcomes during championship week. Utah and BYU are teams that should be considered for winning games in the tourney.

Utah, Sag #25, kenpom offense #44, kenpom defense #30, 1st in conference at 10-3, 20-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wis. Green Bay, Ole Miss, Oregon, Gonzaga, LSU (by 30!), BYU (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Southwest Baptist! (by one), Idaho St, Cal, Oklahoma, Utah St, San Diego St (split), UNLV (split), BYU (split)
3P% - 37.8%, Reb. Margin = +5.4 , FT 78.5%, FG 48.0%, Opp. FG 40.7% –
Utah has a very good ranking, which appears to be powered by wins over Gonzaga and LSU. They are led by leading senior Australian scorer 7'2" C Luke Nevill (17.3 ppg, 2.7 blocks, 8.3 rebs, 61.5% FG%). NBA Draft Express has a bio on him, but they don't expect him to get drafted because of his lack of athleticism and quickness. I'm still sure there's a good chance he'll be drafted in the 2nd round if Utah wins a tournament game. Utah also gets balanced scoring from 5 other players averaging between 8 and 12ppg. The sharpshooters are 6'3" G Lawrence Borha (12ppg, 42.7% 3point), and 6'5" Junior G Luke Drca (8.4 ppg, 3.4 assists, 46.8% 3point) and 6'8" F Shaun Green (10.4 ppg, 38.3% 3-point).

BYU, Sag #23, kenpom offense #17, kenpom defense #16, 2nd in conference at 10-4, 22-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Utah St, Tulsa, San Diego St (twice), Utah (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: UNLV (twice), Ariz St (by 1), Wake (by 7), New Mexico, Utah (split)
3P% - 39.4%, Reb. Margin = +4.4 , FT 71.8%, FG 49.8%, Opp. FG 40.2% –
This is an interesting team, in that they lost their two marquee non-conference games by just a handful of points. They also sport really amazing statistics (I don't ever remember seeing such a high 3-point %), but I fear these are padded by their very easy non-conference schedule (outside of Ariz St, Wake, and Utah st). They have 3 leading scorers in: 6'7" G Lee Cummard (projected 2nd-round nba pick) (17.2 ppg, 6.3 rebs, 41.1% 3-point, 55.4% FG%), 6'6" G/F Jonathon Tavernari (17.1 ppg, 7.2 rebs, 38.4% 3-point), and 6'2" G Jimmer Fredette 15.3 ppag, 4.5 assists, 39.8 3-point%). They still will need to at least make their conference semis to have a chance, if not make the conference finals.

New Mexico, Sag #63, kenpom offense #36, kenpom defense #52, 2nd in conference at 10-4, 19-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: San Diego, Ole Miss, BYU (split), UNLV (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Creighton, UCF, VCU, Drake, UTEP, Texas Tech, San Diego St (split)
3P% - 39.6%, Reb. Margin = +2.7 , FT 69.5%, FG 46.6%, Opp. FG 40.0% –
Now this team has the highest 3-point % I've ever seen! Their profile is a lot worse than BYU's, even w/ the split in head-to-head action, because they've lost to a whole sort of bad teams. They are led in scoring by senior 6'5" Tony Danridge (14.3 ppg, 4.3 rebs), and the sharpshooting is done by 6'7" Chad Toppert (10.9 ppg, 44.4% 3-point) and 6'6" Roman Martinez (10.7ppg, 41.6% 3-point).

San Diego St, Sag #51, kenpom offense #60, kenpom defense #44, 4th in conference at 9-5, 19-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: San Diego, Utah (split), New Mexico (split),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Ariz St, Arizona, St. Mary's (the good one in WCC), BYU (twice), Wyoming (split),
3P% - 34.8%, Reb. Margin = +1.7 , FT 70.4%, FG 44.7%, Opp. FG 42.1% –
Ok, these guys have to win the conference tournament. No other way. Not wasting any more time here.

UNLV, Sag #54, kenpom offense #78, kenpom defense #38, 5th in conference at 8-6, 20-8
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UTEP, Arizona, Louisville, Utah (split), BYU (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: California, Cincy, TCU, Col St, Wyoming
3P% - 35.8%, Reb. Margin = -2.4 , FT 68.1%, FG 43.2%, Opp. FG 42.6% –
Their profile is more interesting, because they have wins over Arizona, Louisville, and a sweep of BYU with a split of conference leader Utah. If they get to the conference finals, that should be enough then. They are led by Wink Adams (that's really his name) (14.6ppg, 4.2 rebs) and Rene Rougeau (11ppg, 6.8 rebs). They don't shoot well as a team and they tend to get outrebounded, meaning that they shouldn't be trusted in the tourney though.