March Madness 2009 - Instantaneous Analysis

One of the greatest day in sports is the day the brackets come out (at least in my humble opinion). Now, it's time for everyone in America to suddenly become basketball experts! Let's take a look at how this year's bracket shapes up:

Best 1st round matchup- UCLA vs. VCU - This is very exciting simply because VCU's PG, Eric Maynor, already took down Duke two years ago. He's projected to get drafted this spring. Whenever there's a bona fide PG running around on a mid-major, the other team has to be concerned.

Most anticipated 2nd round matchup – First, a little history lesson proving how my personal anticipated 2nd round matchup often never happens.
In 2008, my anticipated matchups included two: Indiana vs UNC (where Indiana lost badly in the 1st round to Arkansas) and Notre Dame and Washington State (which actually did happen).
In 2007 my “anticipated” matchup actually happened [Boston College vs. former Big East rival Georgetown], but 2007’s 2nd round matchups were relatively weak.
In 2006, my matchup [Mich. St. vs. UNC] never happened as George Mason wiped out Mich. St. then UNC.
In 2005, I didn’t specifically anoint one matchup, but I alluded to the Kansas-Wisconsin game, but Bucknell took out Kansas in the 1st round to prevent that from happening
This year, I'm going with two: Arizona State vs. Syracuse (where both are coming off conference tournament losses in the title game) and West Virginia vs. Kansas. I think all 4 teams have been inconsistent throughout the season yet each have also proven to be capable of beating anyone.

Region of Death- Louisville's region! Without question, it's the hardest, which is unfair, considering that Louisville is the "#1 overall seed". Also, to make sure the road is impossible, their 2nd round game is against Ohio State in Dayton, just an hour from campus! This region has it all: a healthy Izzo-coach 2-seed (Michigan State), the defending champion (Kansas), West Virginia, an ACC-team that beat Duke and UNC (Wake), and one of the best mid-majors (Utah). Honestly, before the tournament, I would have been happy to have Wake and Michigan State in my Final 4 along with some #1s. Now I can't do that, and I even have to root against Wake in the 1st round to support my team du jour, Cleveland State.

Cinderella Final 4 Team- West Virginia - They have showed flashes of brilliance, beating down Pitt, destroying Ohio State, and playing in the Big East. Negatives: their coach is Bob Huggins and they would have to beat Kansas, Michigan St, and probably Louisville to reach the final four.
Darkhorses: Arizona State - James Harden could catch fire and take Arizona State over a tired Syracuse team, a dizzy Blake Griffin and Oklahoma, and an injured UNC.
BYU - they shoot 3s from all over the place, and UConn is lacking in the guard department, so if you feel like rolling the dice with an 8-seed, this would be the choice.
Gonzaga - if Lawson is unable to play for UNC, Gonzaga could have a real easy road. They just have to beat Akron, then they either get Illinois (who is missing their PG) or 12-seed Western Kentucky. If UNC is missing Lawson, Gonzaga could get to the elite 8 very easily and reach the Final 4 on the 10th anniversary of their run to the Elite 8 in 1999.

Now, on to the rules I've devised to analyze the tournament! If you want to see the rules I’ve devised, check out the link to 2005’s blog article on the "Rules of Engagement".

Rule #1: All (4) 1-seeds will NOT make Final4 -
-Yes, last year all 1-seeds made it. I'm guaranteeing it won't happen again this year, especially because just about every team is flawed this year either by injury (UConn, UNC) or by inconsistency (Louisville) or by tending to foul out (Pitt).

Rule#4: A 12-seed always beats a 5 (except in 2000 and 2007)-
Western Kentucky over Illinois is the best bet, because Illinois is missing their PG and because Illinois lost a game at home 38-33 earlier in the season.
My 2nd favorite is actually Arizona over Utah, though I will be rooting for Utah to prove to the Selection Committee that mid-majors can compete.

Rule#6: There always is one conference w/ multiple teams in the final4 (except in 2007 and 2008) – My favorite options:
Louisville, Memphis, Pitt, UNC (Big East)
West Virginia, Missouri, Pitt, Oklahoma (Big East / Big 12)
Wake, UConn, Villanova, UNC (Big East / ACC)
Michigan St, Purdue, Duke, UNC (Big Ten)
Kansas, Washington, Pitt, Arizona St (PAC-10)

Rule#9: If you win your power conference tourney, you won't do well in the NCAA tourney. (Exception: top 10 teams):

In 2005, one team lost in the 1st round, the other in the 2nd round
In 2006, all 3 that qualified got bounced in the 1st round.
In 2007, one team qualified [Oregon], but they made the elite 8. I still say Oregon had an easy draw though.
In 2008, Pitt (Big East) and Georgia (SEC) are the only teams that qualified. Georgia only had a 14-seed and got bounced by Xavier. Pitt got a 4-seed and was upset by Michigan State in the 2nd round.
This year, the qualifying teams are:
Purdue, Missouri, USC, and Mississippi State.
USC & Mississippie State I'm slating as 1st round losers. The rules have treated me well, so I will place Purdue as a 2nd-round loser. I'm going to go against the grain though with Missouri and place them in the Sweet 16 for the simple reason that Marquette (likely 2nd round opponent) lost their PG and has not played well.