Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Week 11: College Football Trend Watching


What Happened

tOSU claimed a Rose Bowl bid, USC was hung, drawn and quartered, Pitt took a big step forward nationally, Arizona faceplanted out of the Pac 10 race, G-Tech clinched its division and will almost assuredly play Clemson for the ACC title, TCU is the best non-BCS team - by far, and Cinci edged West Virginia - meaning the winner of Cinci at Pitt on Dec 5th will win the Big East and get a bid.

Games of the Week
The Ohio State at M*ch*g*n - Yes the Game isn't quit what it used to be as the Big 10 champion has already been crowned but there's still a lot to play for (namely blood). Richrod needs a win to avoid 2 straight bowl-less seasons. Ohio State looking to win the Big 10 title outright (and humiliate Michigan)

Oregon at Arizona - Probably an elimination game in the crazy Pac 10. Arizona had been riding high until last week's lost to Cal. An Oregon lost means they fall into tie for first place, lose the tie breaker to Stanford, and putting Stanford up as the team to beat.

Cal at Stanford - Stanford seems to have taken USC role as the hottest team in the country. They've destroyed two Pac 10 giants but need another win to keep their BCS hopes alive. For those unaware this is Stanford's main rivalry game as everyone knows Stanford hates Berkley hippies.

Team to Watch
Oregon State - With Arizona's loss, Oregon State now controls its own destiny in the crazy Pac 10. Oregon State has the best QB (Sean Canfield) in the conference. With an easy game against Wash State and a rivalry game at Oregon it's very easy to see how the other other OSU can win the Pac 10.

Bowl Predictions
Just a reminder BCS spots go to conference winners plus 4 at large spots (which can go to any team in the BCS top 14 with each conference at max being eligible for 2 teams). Assuming SEC/Texas go to the BCS game that means that the Fiesta/Sugar Bowl will have the first choices for the at-large teams. The Big East has no tie to any BCS bowl game. Teams listed below in black have clinched a spot.

TCU is way ahead of Boise State and will get an automatic bid. Rumor has it that the Fiesta prefers Iowa to Penn State. Note this is where selection order matters as if the Fiesta picks TCU over Iowa then the Orange Bowl would probably take Penn State leaving Iowa out of the BCS. Nonetheless for the last spot that nobody has claimed right now I have Ok State. Oklahoma State has several advantages (size, location, and most importantly Big 12 connections which the Fiesta normally has ties to) and with only 2 losses would get the spot over alternatives - this assumes Ok State beats Oklahoma. If Ok State loses to its arch-rival then its 's probably Boise State. The reason for this is while the loser of Pitt v. Cinci or if G-Tech loses to the suddenly red hot Clemson Tigers would be possible choices - Bowls rarely pick losers of their last game - especially so for non-glamour teams like G-Tech or Pitt.

BCS Championship: Alabama v. Texas
Orange Bowl : TCU v. G-Tech
Sugar Bowl: Florida v. Cincinnati
Fiesta: Ok State v. Iowa
Rose Bowl: Oregon v. Ohio State

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