Yes, we're still 8+ months away from the start of the college football 2010 season. Yes, recruiting for next year is still going on. Yes, Lane Kiffin could have 4 different jobs between now and then. However that doesn't mean I can't come up with insane predictions. As such here are my predictions and caveats for teams most likely to make it to the Mythical BCS Championship (for the 2010-2011)
1. Alabama
Pluses
At this point it almost seems for granted that the winner of the SEC will be given a spot in the BCS Championship game. Alabama has a big non-conference game against a soon to be rebuilding Penn State and basically the entire offense back (including heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram)
Minuses
History - No team has won back to back SEC Championships in the past 12 years. Alabama has to travel to Florida during regular season. They also have to replace key defensive players (Cody, McClain, Arenas)
2. Ohio State
Pluses
Coming off a Big BCS victory and returning 16 starters (including heisman hopeful Pryor) tOSU appears poised to have the needed hype train. They have an several prime time non-conference games that could also bolster their credit (notably against U of Miami) although at this point Ohio State seems poised for top 3 preseason ranking.
Minuses
Will Pryor look like the QB against Oregon? Related to that Ohio State needs to replace its left tackle with no obvious choices. Road games at Wisconsin and at Iowa will be tough.
3. Boise State
Pluses
Boise State, following their big win over TCU, will start the season highly ranked. They return 21 of 22 starters including heisman hopeful QB Kellen Moore. They also have two tough non-conference games against Oregon State (home) and V-Tech (Fedex Field). I have a feeling that if Boise wins both decisively that they'll be given serious thought.
Minuses
There is still a lingering/omnipresent question of if non-BCS school will be given the opportunity to play in the BCS title game. The downside of playing tough non-conference games (especially on the other side of the country) is that Boise State could easily lose to a loaded V-Tech team.
4. Oregon
Pluses
Oregon returns 19 of its starters including their star QB and running back (the one that didn't punch anyone). They also have only one semi-tough non-conference (at Tennessee). An undefeated season and a high preseason is usually grounds for a shot at the Championship game.
Minuses
Oregon is on the road against USC, Cal, and Oregon State. Add in the normal wacky Pac 10 surprises and it might be tough sledding to go undefeated in the Pac 10.
5. Nebraska
Pluses
There's always going to be a team that you don't expect in the thick of. I'm picking Nebraska (hear me out). The Big 12 Champ will be given consideration and Nebraska appears well positioned to win the title. Texas is breaking in a young/inexperienced QB and Oklahoma is losing gobs of talent on the offensive line and defense. Nebraska gets Texas in Lincoln and avoids OU. They return ten starters on offense. While they lose all universe Suoh, DT Crick will position himself as a first round pick for next year.
Minuses
They play at Oklahoma State and at Washington (are they minuses? potentially?). Their offense until their bowl game was awful. Can a Big 12 North team actually win the Big 12? Can the team handle hype?
Just Missed the Cut: Texas, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, G-Tech
3 comments:
I like the interesting pick of Nebraska to contend. I think it makes sense (especially after almost beating Texas and destroying Arizona in the bowl game).
I can't believe Alabama is playing Penn State. Of course, as luck has it, Penn State will indeed be rebuilding next year. OhioState-Miami and BoiseSt-Virginia Tech should go a long way to determining the championship... in fact, they are de facto play-in games.
Very exciting to see my adopted Broncos taking on two BCS-conference teams, including a tough road matchup vs VaTech. I know even if BSU goes unbeaten again, the naysayers will hold their weak conference against them, and perhaps rightfully so. But given the success of BSU, TCU, and other non-BCS teams recently, it's important for the sport for these squads to get their chances against the big boys - and I think that's true no matter what one thinks of the non-BCS teams.
"[G]iven the success of BSU, TCU, and other non-BCS teams recently, it's important for the sport for these squads to get their chances against the big boys - and I think that's true no matter what one thinks of the non-BCS teams."
It's up to those non-BCS teams to make their own chances. If Boise State has finally scheduled some quality opponents, including a quality road opponent then they're finally figuring out that blue fields and undefeated records aren't good enough to stake a claim to the national championship conversation. You have to play -- and beat -- good teams in a season.
All this garbage that non-BCS schools don't get a fair shake is crybabyism. TCU scheduled a legit slate of games in 2009 and was rewarded. BSU didn't schedule anyone after opening night and made it in because there wasn't one other candidate that might've bumped them this year.
Oh, by the way, the 2010 Fiesta Bowl TV ratings were down by 21% over the previous year. So much for the argument that people actually want to watch mid-major football on a national scale.
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