Wednesday, May 26, 2010

More World Cup Info

Yes, it's time to get ill... and to learn more about the World Cup.

Back in December, I provided data on each team, and their ranking according to FIFA (i.e. SIX years of outcomes!) and SPI (ESPN's ranking which takes into account players on the field for both teams in each game).

I went back to take a look at the SPI, to see which teams are big movers and shakers from last December's rankings.

South Korea - was 42, now 31 (so they have leapfrogged both Nigeria (33) and Greece (34) ) !

Algeria - was 46, now 62. (I may have had a typo the first time, it looks like they were 64 at first).
Cameroon - was 15, now 25. they've fallen behind Denmark (20) in their group.
Ivory Coast - was 9, now 15.

That's interesting that all the African teams fell far in the rankings. Not sure what that means.

For more interesting facts, here are the odds of each team to win, according to on 5/26/10. Notably, Spain and Brazil are still the favorites. Also notably, Brazil, Portugal, and Ivory Coast, which are all in the same group, are each in the top-ten teams most likely to win the whole tournament!

Spain 6/1 9/2
Brazil 5/1 5/1
England 8/1 11/2
Argentina 6/1 9/1
Italy 12/1 11/1
Germany 10/1 12/1
France 18/1 13/1
Netherlands 12/1 13/1
Portugal 30/1 20/1
Ivory Coast 40/1 20/1
Chile 80/1 30/1
Ghana 50/1 40/1
Serbia 50/1 40/1
United States 60/1 40/1
Paraguay 60/1 40/1
Uruguay 100/1 50/1
South Africa 100/1 50/1
Nigeria 75/1 50/1
Mexico 60/1 50/1
Denmark 75/1 50/1
Cameroon 75/1 50/1
Australia 100/1 60/1
Greece 100/1 60/1
Slovakia 250/1 100/1
Switzerland 125/1 100/1
South Korea 150/1 150/1
Slovenia 1000/1 150/1
Japan 125/1 150/1
Algeria 600/1 200/1
Honduras 350/1 200/1
Korea DPR 350/1 200/1
New Zealand 1000/1 200/1

Also, interestingly, Spain is the heaviest favorite to win their group, at 1/4. The lowest favorite to win a group is France, at only 10/11. Outside of the top seeds, the next best bets to "win" a group are: Mexico (3/1) (Group A - France), Ghana (3/1) (Group D - Germany), Paraguay (3/1 (Group F - Italy), and Portugal (Group G - Brazil).


Mighty Mike said...

I think the info just what a difficult task Portugal, Brazil, and Ivory Coast have for advancing.

It seems the odds markers don't put much credit into the Europe doesn't do well away from Europe storyline....

Gutsy Goldberg said...

let's remember something else about odds... the odds reflect a way to balance the money on each side. i'm assuming the fans from the european countries keep plucking money down on their teams, so it's possible the european teams have artificially lower odds. I just think it's funny how portugal and ivory coast have equal odds of winning the whole thing, despite being in the same group and despite playing in a group with brazil!