Fantasy Football = Fantasy World Cup

Now that the frenzy of the World Cup and NBA Free agency have died down, now is a good time for me to explain the insanity, the thrill, and the joy of FIFA's Fantasy World Cup game.

For simplicity, I will just refer to this as "Fantasy World Cup." I ended up signing up for this game at fifa.com at the last moment, just a day before the first games began. I did not have time to read the rules, which were like 20 pages long, so I just started picking a team. I quickly learned that I could only have 2 players per team, and that I had to pick 23 players, just like a real World Cup roster.

Salary Cap Game
The difficulty in the game is that it also was a salary cap game and the players were valued such that if you chose a bunch of popular forwards (i.e. David Villa, Rooney, Messi) this would blow your budget apart such that your bench would end up relying on a bunch of players who don't even normally play. Clearly, some balance had to be maintained. I instictively tried to save some cap space such that I had a more well-rounded team.

Substitutions create problems
I then had to select my starters for "Round 1." What I did not realize (which I should have read), is that the Fantasy World Cup worked like a real World Cup game… if I subbed anyone out they could not be brought back in. This has a strange affect in this type of game though, as some players have already played, and others have yet to play. Had I read the instructions first, I would have realized that the optimum strategy was to start all of your players who were playing that day in "Round 1" and then sub-in players as the first set of players fail to produce (i.e. Group G played days after Group B, so there was no rational reason to start any Group G players from the start).

Transfers!
Because I didn't realize this, my lineup was messed up from the start. The more interesting part of this game was that in between "Round 1" and "Round 2" (the second group game for each team), you were allowed to make a certain amount of "transfers." Thus, as I realized that 30% of my team wasn't even playing in the World Cup, I had to try to transfer and sell my current players to acquire players who actually were amassing points. Unfortunately, the players producing were increasing in terms of cost, and the players I had purchased were decreasing in value since thousands of players were selling the players and dumping them out. Yes, my team was screwed!

Banking on certain teams to advance
What made the game even more challenging, which required a great deal of strategic thinking, was that you were only allowed 2 players per nation in the first 3 games, then 4 players in the round of 16 and quarters, then 6 players in the semifinals, then up to 8 players per nation in the finals. Thus, the teams that spent all of their resources getting Brazilian players got a raw deal when Brazil suddenly was eliminated. I actually banked on Uruguay (given their "easier" quadrant), which helped. It still did not offset all of the mistakes I made in the first two rounds.

Double down on the Captain
In the end, Fantasy World Cup was a fantasy game unlike any I'd ever played because it combined a salary cap game with bizarre substitution rules… and then there was one super-wildcard. You were able to designate one captain for your team. Your captain was able to score DOUBLE his points! So the real key to succeeding was apparently picking whomever had an easy opponent (and playing offensive players against North Korea).

World Cup Quaterfinal Action

By popular demand...a little World Cup Analysis of the Elite 8 or what they call in the rest of the world...the quarterfinals...crazy rest of the world.

Uruguay v. Ghana

It's actually been a fascinating sociological demonstration how South African fans (and African fans more generally) have gotten behind the sole remaining African team. I doubt seriously other continents would have this level of unity. While Ghana has won consistently in the past years through a stifling defense. However at the end of the day I think Ghana will miss Michael Essien's play making abilities as Uruguay match's the Ghanan defense but has more striking capabilities.

Pick: Uruguay

Brazil v. Netherlands

This might be the best match of the quarter-finals. The Dutch have looked as good as anybody. They have a ton of experience, firepower, and their best player is finally healthy. However Brazil is top dog in the soccer world more so now as they've adopted a more defensive focus. Too many stars, too much firepower as soccer royalty moves on to the semis.

Pick Brazil

Paraguay v. Spain

I think I speak for all mankind as I'm rooting for Paraguay given that super-model/super-fan Larissa will strip naked and run around if Paraguay wins. Umm go Paraguay? Unfortunately Spain is the #1 team in the world by rankings led by David Villa and Xabi. They tossed aside Portugal, who is better than Paraguay, so Spain should role in probably the most lopsided of the quarterfinal matches.

Pick Spain

Argentina v. Germany

Germany I think has shocked a number of football/soccer fans. The youth/foreign movement of the German squad has been more successful then I think initially projected. Their crushing of England demonstrates the importance of infrastructure for a national team (as England lacks one). However there's something about this Argentina that seems more than the sum of their substantial parts. Despite barely making the World Cup, Maradonna's squad has looked as impressive as anyone in South Africa. In the end, I'll pull an ecological fallacy and say because South America has been better than Europe...Argentina gets the win

Pick Argentina

World Cup: Soccer Every Day!

I meant to make a post last night, to preview the final games from today in Groups A & B. Nonetheless, this is the most exciting time during the World Cup... as there are games every single day and most nations are still mathematically alive (for example, entering today, only 2 spots had been clinched, and only 2 teams had been eliminated, meaning a whopping 28 teams were going into the last game with some kind of prayer!)

Schedule for remaining final group stage games:

Wednesday - final games for Group C - 10AM; Group D - 2:30PM
Game to watch (outside of US at 10AM): Germany vs. Ghana (2:30PM) - this should be a very interesting game... especially because Germany needs to win and if Germany does in fact get into a winning position, Ghana will be looking at goal differential in comparison to Serbia. Should be a crazy afternoon! Plus, Ghana looked so dangerous against Serbia, but seemed to slack off a bit against Australia. If Ghana could somehow knock out Germany, that would be incredible.

Thursday - final games for Group F - 10AM; Group E - 2:30PM
Game to watch: Denmark vs. Japan (2:30PM) - Nothing beats a winner-take-all affair... plus, what makes things even more interesting is that Japan, not Denmark, holds the edge in goal-differential. Meaning, that if the game ends in a tie, it would be Japan that surprisingly moves on. Denmark looked really solid against Cameroon (for whatever that is worth) so it should be interesting.

Friday - final games for Group G - 10AM; Group H - 2:30PM
Game to watch: Chile vs. Spain (2:30PM) - Chile plays an aggressive, attacking style. Spain needs to win probably to advance... and Chile will be watching the scoreboard as Switzerland is taking on Honduras and Switzerland will probably be pouring on the goals to ensure that they advance. It is likely that we will have a 3-way tie for first and it's sad because Spain, Chile, and Switzerland have all looked great so far. This should provide great drama though!

2nd Round - Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday!
The soccer doesn't stop right now, which is why this part of the tournament is so much fun!

World Cup: After Day 5

African Homefield Advantage?

It's not really there! The Africans went a disappointing 1-3-2 through each team's first game. The lone victory was a surprise Ghana victory over Serbia. However, Cameroon, a heavy favorite against Japan, ended up losing 1-0 (despite dominating possession, and chances). Cameroon was unlucky not to get a goal and now are in a horrible position, needing a win against Denmark to have a chance at advancing.

Portugal is Boring

In the highly anticipated match of Portugal against Ivory Coast, Portugal decided to literally play for a tie rather than risk anything at all. The result was a very boring affair. Ivory Coast was pressing for a goal and trying at least, and superstar Didier Drogba even played 25 minutes and even had a chance for a goal in the 90th minute. Surprisingly, North Korea actually already scored a goal. I wonder if anyone expected that? Now, Portugal and Ivory Coast will both be looking to rack up as many goals as possible against North Korea to win on goal-differential.

Netherlands has a Super-Sub

He probably will be a starter by the next game, but the Netherlands inserted young 23-year old Elia, and the game against Denmark changed rapidly! He was super-fast and had all sorts of ball tricks to get himself free and create opportunities (one of which led to a goal). Hopefully, we will see more of him.

Giving Tickets To Your Friends is Not Allowed, Even if They are Young, Hot Women

This story cracks me up... apparently, one of the World Cup commentators got fired for arranging a group of young, hot women to take his "allocation" of tickets.

World Cup: After Day 3

Well World Cup is here and while only 3 days are in the books, lots to talk about

USA!?!

Whether it's a question of where USA soccer is or where it's not the Americans where happy about a tie. Let me rephrase that after all of English tabloid insults, I am that John Bull got done in by one of the worst goal keeping displays at the World Cup. The tie coupled with Slovenia's win over Algeria, means that Friday's match against Slovenia will be extraordinarily important. The Slovenian who will probably be hunkered down. Hopefully Tim Howard will be healed, possibly by a witch doctor, in time to be his sensational self.

Most Impressive Win

While there's something to be said for how South Korea beat Greece, the most impressive win to date belongs to Germany. Die Mannschaft (Das Germans) scored at will, pummeling Australia senseless 4-0. Yes Australia went down a man in the second half but it could have been easily 4-0 in the first half. Perhaps the injuries will be beneficial as it will allow their talented youngsters more playing time.

Most Surprising/Most Important Win

Was Ghana's win over Serbia. A number of experts have Serbia making it deep into the tournament and with their loss to Ghana, Serbia now needs to regroup and avoid a loss to Germany. If they lose their next match to Germany, Serbia's World Cup hopes will be for all practical purposes finished. Meanwhile Ghana gave the host Continent it's first win.

Biggest Disappointment

Where the hell is Tommy Smyth? The man that I associate with soccer on ESPN has been, too my knowledge, MIA. Can he not leave the country? Is he currently busy granting wishes because somebody got his pot of gold? Using his magical voice to try to coax BP into cleaning up the Gulf? Seriously, why is Smyth missing?

World Cup Links

To further advance everyone's enjoyment of the World Cup, I've provided some very helpful links... (all from FIFA)

Team world cup stats - goals, shots, shot positions, attacking, defending, passes, passes length, total distance ran, and top speeds!

Individual world cup stats - goals, shots, shot positions, attacking, defending, passes, passes length, total distance ran, and top speeds! (same as for each team)

Castrol Index Rating (for individuals) - Castrol uses some complex computer rating system. I have no idea how accurate it is, but feel free to take a look (you can only sort by match as of now).

Extensive analysis and formation breakdowns - Thanks to Mighty for finding this website. Most of this is over my head, but if you are trying to learn more about formations and the strategies involved, take a look here for superb, in-depth analysis.

Summer Potpourri

World Cup-

SI Predictions - Champions (Number of votes): Spain (6), Argentina (3), Brazil (5), Italy (really?)
Mighty noticed that out of 15 experts, 4 have Serbia in the top 4 ; one guy had the balls to put Cameroon in the final 4, another had Ivory Coast;

Detailed analysis on formations - Most of this is over my head, but it's interesting information on how internationally, many teams are abandoning the classic 4-4-2 formation in favor of having just a single striker up top.

ESPN / Castrol Computer Rankings and Predictions - Apparently, according to simulations based on players and teams involved, Brazil is supposed to beat Spain in the Finals. The computer simulator does not pick any upsets. Interesting selections include Nigeria advancing (ahead of Korea and Greece), Uruguay (ahead of Mexico), Denmark (ahead of Cameroon), and Ivory Coast (ahead of Portugal). They also have percentages for winning the whole thing... with Brazil at 23.4%, Spain at 17%, and England at 10.3%. Interestingly, they also have the USA at an astonishingly high 70.5% chance of advancing out of the first round.

Conference Free Agency 2010-

Seriously. This story is even bigger than the NBA free agency. It's unbelievable!
Here's an amazing link to Stewart Mandel, explaining the sudden domination of the PAC-10 in free agency 2010... simply because their TV contract is up and it's time to strike it rich!

NBA Finals -

Game 2 and Game 3 couldn't have been more different... see Ray Allen not being able to miss.... and then not being able to shoot! See Derek Fisher going 2-8 for 6 points and letting Rondo have a triple double in Game 2... but then Fisher exploding for 16 points in Game 3 while limiting the effectiveness of Rondo.

Something tells me we are in for a long series in this Finals. Perhaps even more fascinating is Andrew Bynum playing through severe knee injuries to post 10 pts, 6 rebs (+11); 21 pts, 6 rebs, 7 blocks (+1 in a loss); and 9 pts, 10 rebs (+0 in a win). This is major production... if he keeps it up, I like the Lakers chances (especially since I picked the Celtics assuming Bynum's knees weren't healthy enough to allow him to play.

Wednesday Odds and Ends

Just a Few Odds and Ends Thoughts from Fortress Mighty

2011 Already? Yes recruiting for the 2011 Football class is in high gear and Rivals has put out its first ranking of the top 100 players nationwide . The Big 10 appears poised for a far better showing than last year with Michigan State already having the #11 Lawrence Thomas (hey remember that name). Just to show how fast recruiting goes these days Texas already has 22 commits.

Was It Over When the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor? Maybe. The Chicago Blackhawks, holders of the longest title drought in the NHL, appears to have the series well in hand behind superb goal tending in Game 2 and crappy goal tending by the opposition in Game 1. The Flyers have been the comeback kids this year (coming from behind 3-0 against Boston) but it's safe to say their backs are against the walls. Oh and Nedemeyer...dead

The Live Will versus the Dead Head - Spain has, to put it mildly, a history of choking. Never has the country's squad advanced past the quarterfinals...never, ever, never. On the other hand this is a team that has one loss in the past 40 matches (that one loss being to Team USA. Go USA!) Hence why Spain is one of two favorites to win the World Cup. As opposed to the NCAA Tournament....you don't get Cinderellas winning it all so history says bet on a favorite of course history also says don't bet on Spain.

Congrats goes out to our very own contributor - Laz - who got married over the weekend. Best wishes to happy couple - who to celebrate the nuptials I believe will travel around the world in a balloon in under 80 days.

World Cup 2010 Preview

I ran through the previews at Sports Illustrated and Yahoo to get an idea of what's going on... here's my take (which is heavily influenced by my news sources):

Projected Order of Finish

Group A
1) Mexico - Mexico is relying on three 21-year old forwards. They are supposed to be talented... and I assume we will find out very shortly how talented they are!
2) France - This is an interesting team... in that Sports Illustrated does not like their coach at all. Let's not forget... they only qualified because of a non-call on a hand-ball by Thierry Henry against Ireland. However, I don't like the other teams as much.
3) Uruguay - This team apparently is all about attacking at all times with a very weak defense.
4) South Africa - South Africa is poised to become the first hosts to fail to move on from the opening round... on the bright side, they have a player named Pienaar who plays for Everton in the Premier league, so he is good at least.

Group B - crapshoot for 2nd place
1) Argentina- Maradona is the leader. But I figure his erratic decisions and bizarreness will not cause the talented Argentines to lose until the knockout stage.
2) South Korea- they have a younger team this time around; only 3 starters return from 2006's team... but they lost one of their better players to injury during a game this past Sunday.
3) Nigeria- They ended up relieving their coach and hiring a new one a few months ago... I thought this one quote was really entertaining from SI, "At 18 John Obi Mikel was so highly regarded in the English Premier League that he was the subject of a bizarre transfer dispute between Chelsea and Manchester United involving tens of millions of dollars, death threats and the player hiding at a friend's house while agents sorted out his future. "
4) Greece - Greece apparently still relies on playing heavy defensive soccer and surviving games 0-0 and 1-0. I just think the other teams sound more talented in this group, but they would certainly be one of the best 4th place teams.

Group C
1) England - one of the better teams of course.
2) United States - I think the US can survive the 1st round... it doesn't help that no on knows how healthy their best defender (Oguchi) is, or that they lost Charlie Davies to injury before the World Cup. This seems like more of a manageable group than usual... though the US biggest weakness this time around seems to be the defense, which has been making all kinds of sloppy mistakes of late.
3) Slovenia - this is one of the surprises from Europe, as they knocked out Russia in a home-and-home at the last stage of qualifying. They rely on defensive soccer and counterattack (same as Greece). What's funny is that this team is out for revenge on England and especially Wayne Rooney... who apparently tried to injure one of their players during qualifying!
4) Algeria - Interestingly, this was the surprise from Africa, as they knocked out Egypt in the end. They struggled to score throughout qualifying and appear to be the most lightly regarded African team (along w/ South Africa).

Group D
1) Serbia- They actually won their European qualifying group, ahead of France (though France is considered a favorite here)... they also have a 6'7" forward up front, which would give them a large size advantage in most games.
2) Ghana- Fact: they made the 2nd round in 2006; in addition, they won the 2009 U-20 World Cup (and some of those players are now playing here, including the leading scorer from that tourney , Dominic Adiyiah [AC Milan]). This team could be even better than in 2006 then! Downside: Michael Essien is not healthy enough to play.
3) Germany- They originally had a goalie slated to start but he sadly committed suicide in November, despite playing in a number of the qualifiers. Then, they lost Midfielder Michael Ballack, who is out with an injury. They lost another defender to injury this past Saturday. This team is a top-seed... but I'm picking the upset because this is just a lot of problems for any team to deal with.
4) Australia- they focus on playing defense, but do not have the talent to advance out of this dangerous group.

Group E
1) Netherlands- the Dutch are extremely talented and do quite well by playing insane, attacking soccer. Massive disappointments have occurred along the way (Russia manhandling them in 2008 Euros), losing to Portugal 1-0 in the round of 16 in the 2006 world cup, and failing to even qualify in 2002.
2) Cameroon-World class talent in Eto'o (9 goals in 11 qualifiers) and young 22-year old Arsenal player Robert Song should get Cameroon through to the next round.
3) Denmark- Should not be taken lightly, having somehow finished AHEAD OF Portugal and Sweden in their qualifying group. Contrary to every other country... Denmark is using the same coach, Morten Olsen, since the year... 2000. He guided Denmark to the 2nd round in 2002, even winning a group (over Senegal, Uruguay, France), before losing 3-0 to England. The Danes don't have a talented bunch, but play well together.
4) Japan- They have trouble scoring... and the coach has used 21 different strikers in the last 2 years!

Group F - Weakest group, by far.
1) Italy- I don't like these guys, as they play a boring style, but as we saw in 2006, this can lead to a championship. They get a cupcake group to start this time.
2) Paraguay- They lost their top goal scorer from qualifying... as he was gunned down in a Mexico City bar in January. He somehow survived the attack, but is not healthy enough to play soccer. They have other players who are still good... I just feel bad for them.
3) Slovakia - Apparently, not very highly regarded.
4) New Zealand- please remember, that Australia decided to join the Asian qualifying group... paving the way for New Zealand to get the Oceania half auto bid. They fight off small island contingencies to get the qualification, though they did have to beat the 5th-place Asian team (Bahrain). They have no chance.

Group G - Strongest group, by far.
1) Brazil- excellent team, and the favorite to win it all.
2) Cote D'Ivoire - excellent team. They have all sorts of European players (and goal-scorers especially), including the top scorer in England in Drogba. Defense may be slight question mark.
3) Portugal - excellent team. Interestingly, Portugal opens with Cote D'Ivoire. A victory by either side will go a long way to determining this group. They struggled in qualifying, though Cristiano Ronaldo missed a bunch of games.
4) North Korea - No way do they succeed... though I will be watching if anyone decides to defect. For those not aware, the weirdest story about their team is their Japanese national who decided to play for North Korea because his grandparents are from N. Korea.

Group H -
1) Spain - only lost once in the last like 40 matches. Wow. Struggles on the big stage for some reason.
2) Chile- Chile is crazy, and scored 32 goals (2nd to brazil)... but gave up 22 goals. It's also a very young team, but they are fast as hell.
3) Switzerland- Very inconsistent team... apparently beat Portugal in the Euro championships, but lost to Luxembourg! early in qualifying.
4) Honduras - amazing advance from N. America... but they have no shot here.

Knockout Stage (this is so arbitrary for me to do this, but here it goes):
Mexico over S. Korea
England over Ghana
Netherlands over Paraguay
Brazil over Chile
Argentina over France
Serbia over United States
Cameroon over Italy
Spain over Cote D'Ivoire

Quarterfinals
England over Mexico
Brazil over Netherlands
Argentina over Serbia
Spain over Cameroon

Semifinals
Brazil over England
Spain over Argentina

Finals
Spain over Brazil

More World Cup Info

Yes, it's time to get ill... and to learn more about the World Cup.

Back in December, I provided data on each team, and their ranking according to FIFA (i.e. SIX years of outcomes!) and SPI (ESPN's ranking which takes into account players on the field for both teams in each game).

I went back to take a look at the SPI, to see which teams are big movers and shakers from last December's rankings.

Movers:
South Korea - was 42, now 31 (so they have leapfrogged both Nigeria (33) and Greece (34) ) !

Downers:
Algeria - was 46, now 62. (I may have had a typo the first time, it looks like they were 64 at first).
Cameroon - was 15, now 25. they've fallen behind Denmark (20) in their group.
Ivory Coast - was 9, now 15.

That's interesting that all the African teams fell far in the rankings. Not sure what that means.

For more interesting facts, here are the odds of each team to win, according to vegasinsider.com on 5/26/10. Notably, Spain and Brazil are still the favorites. Also notably, Brazil, Portugal, and Ivory Coast, which are all in the same group, are each in the top-ten teams most likely to win the whole tournament!

Team	Open	Current
Spain	6/1	9/2
Brazil	5/1	5/1
England	8/1	11/2
Argentina	6/1	9/1
Italy	12/1	11/1
Germany	10/1	12/1
France	18/1	13/1
Netherlands	12/1	13/1
Portugal	30/1	20/1
Ivory Coast	40/1	20/1
Chile	80/1	30/1
Ghana	50/1	40/1
Serbia	50/1	40/1
United States	60/1	40/1
Paraguay	60/1	40/1
Uruguay	100/1	50/1
South Africa	100/1	50/1
Nigeria	75/1	50/1
Mexico	60/1	50/1
Denmark	75/1	50/1
Cameroon	75/1	50/1
Australia	100/1	60/1
Greece	100/1	60/1
Slovakia	250/1	100/1
Switzerland	125/1	100/1
South Korea	150/1	150/1
Slovenia	1000/1	150/1
Japan	125/1	150/1
Algeria	600/1	200/1
Honduras	350/1	200/1
Korea DPR	350/1	200/1
New Zealand	1000/1	200/1

Also, interestingly, Spain is the heaviest favorite to win their group, at 1/4. The lowest favorite to win a group is France, at only 10/11. Outside of the top seeds, the next best bets to "win" a group are: Mexico (3/1) (Group A - France), Ghana (3/1) (Group D - Germany), Paraguay (3/1 (Group F - Italy), and Portugal (Group G - Brazil).

15 Days Till World Cup!

Yes 15 days till the world stops working and starts watching football err soccer. Gutsy and I will doing some serious World Cup coverage so to start up here's a little World Cup Q&A primer.....

Umm so World Cup? Where is it being held?

World Cup this year will be in South Africa, the first African country to host a World Cup. Remember since South Africa is in the Southern Hemisphere it is currently winter, water circles the drain the wrong way, and hamburgers eat people. Of that only the winter part is important as the high altitudes and cool climate will cause some teams to tire quickly.

Tell me about Team USA. Are they good?

Umm they are decent. Team USA is ranked about 16th in the World although it should be stressed this is a young team. Only 6 of the 23 players have World Cup experience.

What are Team USA's Strengths and Weaknesses?

At the top of the list is the goal keeping. Starter Tim Howard is among the elite in the world and behind him are 2 quality goal tenders.. On the weak front are the defenders. All 3 of the starters are coming off serious injuries and there is simply no depth behind those starters.

What should I expect out of this team?
Probably the expectation is getting out of their group but losing in the first round of the tournament. To do less would be a disappointment as that would mean losses to Algeria or Slovenia. To do more would be thrilling as that would probably mean wins versus England or Germany . I will note that Team USA's jersey's are homages to the 1950 team that is the gold standard of USA soccer so they got that going for them...which is nice.

Ok...gotcha on Team USA? Can I root for other teams/players? If so , who?

This was actually a long standing feud between John Adams and Thomas Jefferson... can I support other teams besides Team USA. Adams said no. Jefferson said "Fuck it dude, I'm going bowling" . So that's up to you, normally for us Americans its totally cool to root for countries associated with our heritage in the old country, if the country has cool colors, and if the country did not try to conquer the world . That said I'm rooting for Didier Drogba (Ivory Coast) and against Maradona (Argentina).

Why Drogba?

Drogba, the captain of Team Ivory Coast (Cote d'Ivoire) , is one of the best players in the English Premier League. However what seperates him is that he's an incredible person. Not like he signs jerseys or gives good interviews...like incredible person. Drogba donated his entire signing bonus (~$6 million) to build a hospital in his hometown. Also as a Goodwill UN Ambassador he helped end the civil war that plagued his country. The man pisses awesomeness. So root for Drogba.

Why Not Maradona ?

Maradona, the ex-superstar/controversial figure, is now the head coach of Team Argentina. He's combative, fights with the best player in the world (Lionel Messi), and possibly caused the oil leak in the Gulf. Worse he has publicly stated that he will run through the streets of Buenos Aires naked if Argentina wins it all. I don't need those mental images, I need to sleep at night.

World Cup 2010: Breakdown by SPI and FIFA Rank

Mighty Mike introduced to me the greatest invention in soccer: ESPN's SPI (Soccer Power Index) rankings. For a quick explanation, FIFA's international rankings are based on an absurd 6-years of games. That means that the rankings for these teams still reflect outcomes from 2003 and 2004. In soccer, most of the teams and dominant players change greatly over such a long period of time (i.e. Zidane is no longer on France). Very briefly, ESPN developed the SPI, which is based on recent games but also based largely on player ratings. The ratings of the players not only are based on international games, but also reflect their play on their club teams. A more detailed explanation is also provided on ESPN.

I was even more excited when I discovered that ESPN already used the SPI to determine the average chance of advancing for each team in next year's World Cup! Please note that the SPI is giving a bonus to the African teams, as it assumes that each of these teams will have more fans at the games in World Cup 2010 since it takes place in South Africa.

I'm very intrigued by how much better the SPI can be in comparison to the FIFA rankings. I've gathered a lot of data, shown below.

Based on Average SPI ranking, Group H (Spain) is the toughest group. As Mighty Mike pointed out though, Chile may be ranked artificially high from playing in the mountains and beating everyone there. Groups E(Netherlands) and Group D (Germany) are close behind.

Based on Standard deviation by SPI, Group D (Netherlands) has the 4 teams closest to the same rank.

Based on Average FIFA ranking, it's Group H again, followed by Groups E, D, and C. What's interesting is how different the rankings are between FIFA and SPI. For example, in Group H, Chile is ranked 9 spots higher in the SPI and Honduras 13 spots. Switzerland is ranked 13 spots lower though.

Based on Standard Deviation by FIFA, Group C (England) has the 4 teams closest to the same rank.

If you look strictly at SPI vs. FIFA to determine who would advance there would only be 2 differences if using the SPI (Uruguay over Mexico and Nigeria over Greece)

Of course there's one fact that remains true no matter what: the toughest 3 teams are in Brazil's Group: Brazil, Ivory Coast, and Portugal should be an amazing three-team race as each are capable of making the quarter-finals at least.

Group A
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
Uruguay	10	62%	19	Uruguay	France
France	11	60%	7	France	Mexico
Mexico	19	40%	15	Mexico	Uruguay
South Africa	65	38%	86	South Africa	South Africa
SPI Group Avg	26.3
FIFA Group Avg	31.8
SPI Group STDev	26.1
FIFA Group STDev	36.5
Group B
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
Argentina	5	77%	8	Argentina	Argentina
Nigeria	33	58%	22	Nigeria	Greece
Greece	34	36%	12	Greece	Nigeria
South Korea	42	29%	52	South Korea	South Korea
SPI Group Avg	28.5
FIFA Group Avg	23.5
SPI Group STDev	16.2
FIFA Group STDev	19.9
Group C
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
England	3	82%	9	England	England
USA	16	48%	14	USA	USA
Algeria	46	35%	28	Slovenia	Algeria
Slovenia	36	35%	33	Algeria	Slovenia
SPI Group Avg	25.3
FIFA Group Avg	21.0
SPI Group STDev	19.4
FIFA Group STDev	11.3
Group D
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
Germany	6	65%	6	Germany	Germany
Serbia	13	49%	20	Serbia	Serbia
Ghana	37	45%	37	Australia	Australia
Australia	22	41%	21	Ghana	Ghana
SPI Group Avg	19.5
FIFA Group Avg	21.0
SPI Group STDev	13.4
FIFA Group STDev	12.7
Group E
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
Netherlands	4	72%	3	Netherlands	Netherlands
Cameroon	15	63%	11	Cameroon	Cameroon
Denmark	20	40%	26	Denmark	Denmark
Japan	35	25%	43	Japan	Japan
SPI Group Avg	18.5
FIFA Group Avg	20.8
SPI Group STDev	12.9
FIFA Group STDev	17.6
Group F
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
Italy	12	83%	4	Italy	Italy
Paraguay	18	78%	30	Paraguay	Paraguay
Slovakia	50	32%	34	Slovakia	Slovakia
New Zealand	91	8%	77	New Zealand	New Zealand
SPI Group Avg	42.8
FIFA Group Avg	36.3
SPI Group STDev	36.2
FIFA Group STDev	30.2
Group G
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
Brazil	1	84%	2	Brazil	Brazil
Ivory Coast	9	57%	16	Portugal	Portugal
Portugal	7	55%	5	Ivory Coast	Ivory Coast
North Korea	92	4%	84	North Korea	North Korea
SPI Group Avg	27.3
FIFA Group Avg	26.8
SPI Group STDev	43.3
FIFA Group STDev	38.6
Group H
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
Spain	2	84%	1	Spain	Spain
Chile	8	57%	17	Chile	Chile
Honduras	25	30%	38	Honduras	Switzerland
Switzerland	31	29%	18	Switzerland	Honduras
SPI Group Avg	16.5
FIFA Group Avg	18.5
SPI Group STDev	13.7
FIFA Group STDev	15.2

Week 13 - World Cup Draw

On Friday the World Cup draw comes out! Odds are, the US will be in a very difficult group since the only thing we do know is that they can't play against any of the Asian teams or other North American teams in the 1st round. This means no dream US vs. North Korea match!

Manwich Matchup of the Week & Opening Round Playoff Game #13
Baltimore @ Green Bay - Both the Ravens and the Packers need this game badly. The Ravens have a great defense, the Packers a great offense. It's anyone's guess as to how this plays out.
Pick: Green Bay

Upset of the Week
Titans @ Colts - This is really the last time the Colts could lose. The Titans have been hot, so why not?
Pick: Titans

Opening Round Playoff Game #14
Teams that have been eliminated: Cincy (against Denver in week 1)!, St. Louis, Washington, Buffalo (twice), Jacksonville, Tampa, Oakland, Detroit, San Fran, Atlanta, and now Pittsburgh:
Philly @ ATL - If ATL doesn't win this, it seems like they will certainly be eliminated. If they win, they would be right back in it!
Pick: Philly

Fantasy Football Game of Interest
Minnesota @ Arizona - Lots of fantasy players involved! Should be a fun game to watch.
Pick: Minny

Other Games
Jets @ Bills - Pick: Bills
Denver @ KC - Pick: Denver
Oak @ Pitt - Pick: Pitt
Houston @ Jack- Pick: Houston
Detroit @ Cincy - Pick: Cincy
New Orleans @ Wash - Pick: NO
Tampa @ CAR - Pick: Tampa
St. Louis @ Chicago - Pick: Chicago
San Diego @ Cleveland - Pick: SD
San Fran @ Seattle - Pick: Seattle
Dallas @ Giants - Pick: Dallas (Okay, I'm finally picking against the giants!)
New England @ Miami - Pick: New England

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 116-60
Manwich: 5-7 (I shouldn't have picked against the Saints, even if it was the Pats)
Upset of the Week: 5-7 (Never ever rely on Jake Delhomme)

NBA games of the Week-
last week's "Games of the Week" - Miami beat Orlando by 1 point; Orlando obliterated the Hawks 26-11 in the 4th; and the Cavs destroyed the Dallas Mavericks as Mo Williams went 7 for 7 behind the arc and the Cavs shot 58% from the floor.

This week...
Boston @ San Antonio -Thurs 12/3 - The Spurs just got Ginobili back too!
Denver @ San Antonio - Sat 12/5
ATL @ Dallas - Sat 12/5
Phoenix @ Lakers - Sun 12/6

Week 11- Congrats to the World Cup Field

First off, congrats to Portugal, Greece, France, and Slovenia. Extra congrats to Slovenia, the only one to pull off the upset. Going into the 2nd leg of their match against Russia, they were down 2-1. However, because they had the away goal, and ended up winning the 2nd leg 1-0, that was enough to get through! Away goals are the first tiebreaker in Europe for some bizarre reason. Interestingly, this means that Guus Hiddink will NOT be at the World Cup, despite his past successes with Netherlands, South Korea, and Australia. No idea where Hiddink will go, or if any country would dare to fire their coach just to have him as their coach! Early rumors are Hiddink could be coaching English Club Chelsea very soon.

Manwich Matchup of the Week
Chargers@ Broncos - What a shitty week... this is the best game I could find. That Broncos ship is sinking fast!
Pick: Chargers

Upset of the Week
Dolphins @ Panthers - There really are no games where I truly believe there will be an upset. This is again, the best that I have.
Pick: Dolphins

Opening Round Playoff Game #11
Teams that have been eliminated: Cincy (against Denver in week 1)!, St. Louis, Washington, Buffalo (twice), Jacksonville, Tampa, Oakland, Detroit, and now San Fran.
Falcons @ Giants - both teams have 4 losses. Lose this game, and that gives you 5 losses and gives you almost no room for error. Plus, both teams may be locked in a tiebreaker at the end. This is a very important game, and for some reason, I'm still a sucker for the Giants turning it around.
Pick: Giants

Fantasy Football Game of Interest
Titans @ Texans - If only for the selfish reason that I have no idea if Steve Slaton is still starting for the Texans...
Pick: Houston

Other Games
Cleveland @ Detroit - Worst matchup ever. Good thing I decided in August to buy tickets to the game to visit a friend. Seriously.
Pick: Detroit by 18
Buffalo @ Jacksonville-Pick: Jack-o
Pitt @ KC - Pick: Pitt
Indy @ Baltimore - Pick: Indy
San Fran @ Green Bay - Pick: Green Bay
Seattle @ Minny - Pick: Minny
Washington @ Dallas - Pick: Dallas
New Orleans @ Tampa - Pick: New Orleans
Arizona @ St. Louis - Pick: Arizona
Jets @ New England - Pick: New England
Cincy @ Oakland - Pick: Cincy
Philly @ chicago - Pick: Philly


Last Week: 7-8 (note: Balki method chose 5 games differently than I would have chosen, but surprisingly succeeded on Bengals and Packers)
Season: 92-52
Manwich: 4-6 (Pats blew it)
Upset of the Week: 4-6 (Thanks Balki for believing in Packers over Cowboys!)

NBA games of the Week-
last week's "Games of the Week" - Cavs went to Miami and beat the pretty soundly... Nuggets snapped a losing streak by destroying the Lakers... Spurs/Mavs still playing (wed. night)

This week...
Orlando @ Boston - Friday 11/20 - Oh yeah!
Bucks @ Spurs - Monday 11/23 - The Bucks are 6-3, the Spurs are having trouble w/ the new pieces and are only 4-4. I will be on high alert if the Bucks win this game.

Sien U In Suid-Afrika Hierdie Somer!

You don’t need to be able to read Greek (or Afrikaans) to know what I’m talking about right now!

Yeah baby!

Yeah Baby!

YEAH BABY!

Our hero, Dimitris Salpigidis, scored the only goal of the home-and-home series with Ukraine. As they say here in the US, Dimitris Salpigidis, this Bud’s for you!

Week 10 - Must See TV

Must See TV in the coming week is not in the NFL. It's not in the NBA. It's over in Europe... as the home and home playoffs get under way on Saturday November 14 and Wednesday November 18th. Each matchup will determine a World Cup berth... and each loser will be sent home with nothing! This is must-see TV! Except it's on Setanta sports and some other network... so you'll have to go to a bar most likely to find these games...

Here are the matchups:
France vs. Ireland
Portugal vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina
Greece vs. Ukraine
Russia vs. Slovenia

Now, NFL time... and in honor of Balki from Perfect Strangers... I'm picking all the games Balki-style. Which mascot would win in a fight?

Manwich Matchup of the Week
Patriots @ Colts - A huge game for both teams, as always. I think that Patriots know how to tame Colts. That's my guess anyway.
Pick: Pats

Upset of the Week
Packers @ Cowboys - After the Packers shockingly lost to Tampa Bay, they should get their shit together for this week. I hope. Plus, meat Packers could really beat up Cowboys.
Pick: Packers

Opening Round Playoff Game #10
Teams that have been eliminated: Cincy (against Denver in week 1)!, St. Louis, Washington, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Tampa, Oakland, Detroit, and now San Fran.
Bills @ Titans- The Titans are 2-6 and are probably finished. The Bills are 3-5. A loss for either team should be a final nail in the coffin! But... we all know Titans could just step on a Bill and destroy them.
Pick: Titans

Fantasy Football Game of Interest
Eagles @ Chargers - Most fantasy games will be decided by this game. I don't know who would win between a lightning bolt and an eagle. I think the eagle gets electrocuted, right?
Pick: Chargers

Other Games
Bears @ 49ers - Seriously? Who could beat a bear? Not someone from 1849!
Pick: Bears

Jaguars @ Jets - I think a Jet could either run over the Jaguar or scare it away with its large engines.
Pick: Jets

Broncos @ Redskins - Normally, as w/ the Colts-Patriots, I would say that people trump horses. However, we all know that these Redskins are a bunch of sissies who have no business taming a Bronco.
Pick: Broncos

Bengals @ Steelers - A Bengal would ruthlessly attack a Steeler and chew off an arm.
Pick: Bengals

Lions @ Vikings - Vikings have swords and shields which enable them to survive any Lion attack.
Pick: Vikings

Saints @ Rams - I'm just picking the Saints, because they can handle taming a Ram.
Pick: Saints

Falcons @ Panthers - This is a tough one. I think Falcons can swoop out of the sky and make enough attacks to take down a Panther.
Pick: Falcons

Buccaneers @ Dolphins - Wow. A Buccaneer would totally destroy any Dolphin! Granted, if Aquaman were around, he could probably organize the Dolphins (along w/ other sea creatures) to tip over the ship carrying the Buccaneers. However, under the Balki method, a Buccaneer would certainly take down a Dolphin.
Pick: Buccaneers

Chiefs @ Raiders - Eesh. Even under the Balki method, this is a difficult call. It would be quite the matchup to see the Chiefs take on the Raiders. I'm assuming that the Raiders have advanced weapons (i.e. gunpowder) allowing them to prevail.
Pick: Raiders

Seahawks @ Cardinals - It's an aerial battle! According to the all-knowing wikipedia, a seahawk can refer to an osprey, a fish-eating bird of prey. Cardinals only eat seeds but have strong bills. Obviously, the Seahawk would prevail, even though they don't normally eat birds.
Pick: Seahawks

Ravens @ Browns - I'm assuming the Browns are either a) small elves, or b) an edible brownie. Either way, the Raven will have no trouble.
Pick: Ravens

Last Week: 8-5
Season: 85-44
Manwich: 4-5 (Eagles lost to the Cowboys)
Upset of the Week: 3-6 (Go Chargers go!)

and now... a new feature...
NBA games of the Week-
last week's "Games of the Week" - Miami beat up Denver... and then Denver lost two more games on their road trip.
Cavs beat a depleted Magic team, but Shaq held his own (surprisingly) against Dwight Howard.

This week...
Cavs @ Heat - Thursday 11/12 - LeBron. Wade. Heat are actually 6-1 as of this moment.
Lakers @ Nuggets - Friday 11/13 - Will the Nuggets lose 4 in a row?
Spurs @ Mavs - Wed 11/18 - Both teams are off to slow starts with their new pieces.

NBA's most surpising team (2 weeks in):
Milwaukee Bucks - Almost a unanimous vote for being the worst team in the Eastern Conference.... they are currently 4-2... with a marquee win over Denver tonight! It's still early, but rookie PG Brandon Jennings has been absolutely sensational. Usually, rookie PGs and rookie Centers take more time to adjust, but Jennings seems like a seasoned pro so far.

North Korea Qualifies for the 2010 World Cup

Buried amongst all of yesterday's news (the US Open, the missile capabilities of North Korea, Sammy Sosa, etc) was one story that is simply amazing:

North Korea secured its place at the 2010 World Cup!

The reason this excites me is that I find it fascinating for at least the following storylines:

1) What will Vegas's over-under be on the number of defections by North Koreans?
2) Will North Korea actually get drawn into the same group as the US?
3) Will Kim Jong-Il suit up and score a hat trick?
4) Will North Korea playing at the World Cup push them closer to peace, or will they react violently if the refs treat them poorly?

It's going to be very interesting, that is for sure!

Soccer: Confederations Cup Preview

I really do not have the expertise to give a full preview of the 2009 Confederations Cup, but I wanted to at least write a short preview.

Just to briefly explain, the Confederations Cup is now held once every 4 years based off of who is the current champion from each of the confederations. The Confederations are (with current champions listed in parentheses):
1) Africa (Egypt),
2) South America (Brazil),
3) Europe (Spain),
4) Asia (Iraq),
5) Oceania (i.e. New Zealand),
6) North and Central America (United States).

The 7th team is the host country for the Confederations Cup (this year it's South Africa), and the 8th team is the defending World Cup Champion (Italy), though in other years, if the World Cup Champion has already qualified, then its the runner-up or even the 3rd place team that receives the berth in the Confederations Cup.

This year's groups are completely lop-sided: there is an "easy" group of: South Africa, Iraq, New Zealand, and Spain. The other group is immensely difficult and has: USA, Italy, Brazil, Egypt.

While it does not appear that past winners of the Confederation Cup necessarily succeed in the World Cup, this tournament should demonstrate whether this latest USA team has the talent to compete on the same level as Italy and Brazil. One columnist on Yahoo! has stated that the US soccer coach is under some pressure, and has basically been playing it safe (as opposed to playing to win?) by playing an unorthodox 4-2-2-2 formation. If you want another pessimistic view of the US soccer team, just check out ESPN's columnist which basically details how the US is still playing older players, many of whom were not only on the 2006 team, but also on the 2002 World Cup team. Please note that in soccer, I am of the opinion that it's better when you have fresh talent and fresh legs out there for the most part unless you have a superstar who can still contribute (i.e. David Beckham, or in the US's case Claudio Reyna). In both 1994 and 2002, the US's two recent successes, they relied heavily on younger, sometimes even unknown players. Granted, one could say that those teams have young talent... and perhaps that's something that's missing from the current team (or at least the coach hasn't played enough of these players). Nonetheless, it should be interesting to see how team USA performs at the Confederations Cup against other solid teams.

The Confederations Cup starts June 14th with semifinals on June 24th and the finals on June 28th.

In other soccer news, I always find European qualifying for the World Cup extremely interesting - only because it's designed to be difficult and leave out many quality teams because there are only 13 bids. There are 9 "final" groups, where each 1st place team gets an automatic bid to the World Cup. The 8 best "2nd place" teams fight it out in an insane home-and-away aggregate winner-take-all format, taking place November 14th and November 18th. The 2nd place playoffs are conducted by lottery. Yowsers! This year's European final groupings, has an insane Denmark, Portugal, Sweden group (group 1). Both Portugal and Sweden are well behind the leader Denmark at this point. Group 5 also looks to be rather interesting with Spain well ahead, a surprising Bosnia in 2nd place, with Turkey AND Belgium in 3rd and 4th place.

In other news, North Korea and Saudi Arabia will be playing each other in a winner take all game this coming Sunday. The game is at Saudi Arabia. I think it will be a very interesting World Cup if North Korea is there. I wonder if there is a fear by the North Koreans of their players defecting to other countries, as happens to Cuba when they enter international competition???