World Cup 2010: Breakdown by SPI and FIFA Rank

Mighty Mike introduced to me the greatest invention in soccer: ESPN's SPI (Soccer Power Index) rankings. For a quick explanation, FIFA's international rankings are based on an absurd 6-years of games. That means that the rankings for these teams still reflect outcomes from 2003 and 2004. In soccer, most of the teams and dominant players change greatly over such a long period of time (i.e. Zidane is no longer on France). Very briefly, ESPN developed the SPI, which is based on recent games but also based largely on player ratings. The ratings of the players not only are based on international games, but also reflect their play on their club teams. A more detailed explanation is also provided on ESPN.

I was even more excited when I discovered that ESPN already used the SPI to determine the average chance of advancing for each team in next year's World Cup! Please note that the SPI is giving a bonus to the African teams, as it assumes that each of these teams will have more fans at the games in World Cup 2010 since it takes place in South Africa.

I'm very intrigued by how much better the SPI can be in comparison to the FIFA rankings. I've gathered a lot of data, shown below.

Based on Average SPI ranking, Group H (Spain) is the toughest group. As Mighty Mike pointed out though, Chile may be ranked artificially high from playing in the mountains and beating everyone there. Groups E(Netherlands) and Group D (Germany) are close behind.

Based on Standard deviation by SPI, Group D (Netherlands) has the 4 teams closest to the same rank.

Based on Average FIFA ranking, it's Group H again, followed by Groups E, D, and C. What's interesting is how different the rankings are between FIFA and SPI. For example, in Group H, Chile is ranked 9 spots higher in the SPI and Honduras 13 spots. Switzerland is ranked 13 spots lower though.

Based on Standard Deviation by FIFA, Group C (England) has the 4 teams closest to the same rank.

If you look strictly at SPI vs. FIFA to determine who would advance there would only be 2 differences if using the SPI (Uruguay over Mexico and Nigeria over Greece)

Of course there's one fact that remains true no matter what: the toughest 3 teams are in Brazil's Group: Brazil, Ivory Coast, and Portugal should be an amazing three-team race as each are capable of making the quarter-finals at least.

Group A
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
Uruguay	10	62%	19	Uruguay	France
France	11	60%	7	France	Mexico
Mexico	19	40%	15	Mexico	Uruguay
South Africa	65	38%	86	South Africa	South Africa
SPI Group Avg	26.3
FIFA Group Avg	31.8
SPI Group STDev	26.1
FIFA Group STDev	36.5
Group B
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
Argentina	5	77%	8	Argentina	Argentina
Nigeria	33	58%	22	Nigeria	Greece
Greece	34	36%	12	Greece	Nigeria
South Korea	42	29%	52	South Korea	South Korea
SPI Group Avg	28.5
FIFA Group Avg	23.5
SPI Group STDev	16.2
FIFA Group STDev	19.9
Group C
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
England	3	82%	9	England	England
USA	16	48%	14	USA	USA
Algeria	46	35%	28	Slovenia	Algeria
Slovenia	36	35%	33	Algeria	Slovenia
SPI Group Avg	25.3
FIFA Group Avg	21.0
SPI Group STDev	19.4
FIFA Group STDev	11.3
Group D
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
Germany	6	65%	6	Germany	Germany
Serbia	13	49%	20	Serbia	Serbia
Ghana	37	45%	37	Australia	Australia
Australia	22	41%	21	Ghana	Ghana
SPI Group Avg	19.5
FIFA Group Avg	21.0
SPI Group STDev	13.4
FIFA Group STDev	12.7
Group E
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
Netherlands	4	72%	3	Netherlands	Netherlands
Cameroon	15	63%	11	Cameroon	Cameroon
Denmark	20	40%	26	Denmark	Denmark
Japan	35	25%	43	Japan	Japan
SPI Group Avg	18.5
FIFA Group Avg	20.8
SPI Group STDev	12.9
FIFA Group STDev	17.6
Group F
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
Italy	12	83%	4	Italy	Italy
Paraguay	18	78%	30	Paraguay	Paraguay
Slovakia	50	32%	34	Slovakia	Slovakia
New Zealand	91	8%	77	New Zealand	New Zealand
SPI Group Avg	42.8
FIFA Group Avg	36.3
SPI Group STDev	36.2
FIFA Group STDev	30.2
Group G
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
Brazil	1	84%	2	Brazil	Brazil
Ivory Coast	9	57%	16	Portugal	Portugal
Portugal	7	55%	5	Ivory Coast	Ivory Coast
North Korea	92	4%	84	North Korea	North Korea
SPI Group Avg	27.3
FIFA Group Avg	26.8
SPI Group STDev	43.3
FIFA Group STDev	38.6
Group H
Team	SPI Rank	SPI % Advance	FIFA Rank	Teams Sorted by SPI	Teams Sorted by FIFA
Spain	2	84%	1	Spain	Spain
Chile	8	57%	17	Chile	Chile
Honduras	25	30%	38	Honduras	Switzerland
Switzerland	31	29%	18	Switzerland	Honduras
SPI Group Avg	16.5
FIFA Group Avg	18.5
SPI Group STDev	13.7
FIFA Group STDev	15.2