Pot Luck - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis 2011

This is the last preview, potpourri-style!

UNC, Sag #12, kenpom offense #39, kenpom defense #3, 1st in conference at 14-2, 24-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Kentucky, Clemson (twice), Duke (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Minnesota, Vandy, Illinois, Texas, Geo Tech (all with the PG who has since left)
3P% - 32.3%, 3Pt defense - 31.6%, Reb. Margin = +6.5, FT 66.0%, FG 45.2 %, Opp. FG 39.9% –
Led by Harrison Barnes (6'8" freshman, 14.1 ppg, 32% 3p%, 5.6 rebs), who is playing much better over the second half. Tyler Zeller is an awkward 7 footer (junior, 14.6 ppg, 54.1FG%, 7.1 Rebs). His skills may not translate well to the NBA, but he's good in college. Most importantly, Kendall Marshall (a 6'3" freshman, 5.9 ppg, 5.6 assists, 38.2% 3p%) has been incredible. According to kenpom.com, his assist rate is 8th best in the nation. This is considerable, considering the PG who started the first half of the season was much worse offensively (but probably better defensively). Tough team to gauge, since half the stats are with a different PG and before Harrison Barnes started playing well.

Duke, Sag #4, kenpom offense #7, kenpom defense #2, 1st in conference at 13-3, 27-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Marquette, Kansas St, Mich St, Butler, UNC (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Fla. St, St. John's, Va. Tech, UNC
3P% - 37.9%, 3Pt defense - 32.1%, Reb. Margin = +2.9, FT 74.8%, FG 46.7%, Opp. FG 40.1% –
Duke is led by Senior PG Nolan Smith (6'2", 21.6 ppg, 5.2 assists, 36% 3p%) and Senior 6'8" Kyle Singler (17.1 ppg, 6.6 rebs, 33.5% 3p%) . Seth Curry (6'1" sophomore, 9.4 ppg, 43.8% 3p%) has started to play more in the 2nd half. The big man is 6'10" sophomore Plumlee who is a great rebounder (7.1 ppg, 8.7 rebs, 57% FG%, 1.7 blocks). I just dislike Duke so much it's hard for me to judge them.

Utah St, Sag #21, kenpom offense #48, kenpom defense #6, 1st in conference at 15-1, 28-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: St. Mary's
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: BYU, Georgetown, IDAHO!
3P% - 36.1%, 3Pt defense - 30.6%, Reb. Margin = +8.2, FT 73.2%, FG 47.2%, Opp. FG 38.3% –
Classic small-conference team who hasn't played anyone. After they beat St. Mary's, St. Mary's went into a tail-spin, so they may not have any good wins. They are led by Tai Welsy (6'7" senior, 14.5 ppg, 7.9 rebs, 59% FG% ) who is very efficient, and junior Bockeith Pane (11.3 ppg, 3.5 assists, 43% FG%). 6'7" junior Brady Jardine ( 7.9 ppg, 7.4 rebs, 54% FG%) and Nate Bendall (6'9" senior, 6.4 ppg, 5.6 rebs, 49%) clean up the glass. They also have three 3-point specialists (46.8 and 37.7% and 36.4). It will be interesting to see who they are matched up against. However, notably, they were outrebounded 35-32 by BYU (BYU!), and outrebounded 28-21 by Georgetown.

Arizona, Sag #22, kenpom offense #17, kenpom defense #61, 1st in conference at 14-4, 25-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: UCLA (split), USC (split), Wash (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Kansas, BYU, Ore St!!!, Washington (split), USC (split), UCLA (split)
3P% - 39.7%, 3Pt defense - 28.0%, Reb. Margin = +9.5, FT 75.2%, FG 47.3%, Opp. FG 43.9% –
I kept thinking this team might be dangerous... but they only beat good teams at home, then lose to them on the road. That is a bad sign I'm guessing. They have a top-5 NBA draft pick in 6'8" sophomore Derrick Williams (2nd in nation in true shooting % (70.3!?!), 18.8 ppg, 8.2 rebs, 61% FG%!). After that, not much else going on with this team. Seriously, everyone else is below 10 ppg, below 5 rebounds, below 3 assits, and three bench guys shoot over 42% from 3. The most interesting thing is how well they shoot 3s (though no one person does all the damage)... and how well they defend 3-pointers. What's weird is that they don't defend 2-pointers well at all... in fact they are a poor defensive team overall.

UCLA, Sag #39, kenpom offense #76, kenpom defense #23, 2nd in conference at 13-5, 22-9
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: BYU, Arizona (split), St. John's
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Washington (sweep), Nova, VCU, Kansas, MONTANA, Cal (classic let-down game, after beating arizona by 20)
3P% - 32.9%, 3Pt defense - 34.1%, Reb. Margin = +4.0, FT 68.4%, FG 46.0%, Opp. FG 41.4% –
It's a very young team, hence the uneven play... though they've played better in the 2nd half. They are led by Reeves Nelson (6'8" sophomore, 14.2 ppg, 8.9 rebs, 58% FG%), Malcolm Lee (6'4" junior, 13.2 ppg, 43%FG%, 29% 3p%), Tyler Honeycutt (6'8" sophomore, 12.4 ppg, 7.4 rebs, 2 blocks, 40% FG%, 35% 3pt%), and PG Lazeric Jones (6'0" junior, 9.5 ppg, 3.6 assists, 36% 3p%, 39% FG%). It's a balanced attack... but as evidenced by their wins over BYU and St. John's, they can elevate their game. Also of note, they only lost to Kansas by 1. Their lack of rebounding could be a problem.

Washington, Sag #35, kenpom offense #9, kenpom defense #48, 3rd in conference at 11-7, 20-10
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: USC (split), UCLA (sweep), Arizona (split)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Kentucky (by 7), Mich St (by 5), Texas A&M (by 1)
3P% - 37.2%, 3Pt defense - 32.4%, Reb. Margin = +13.7, FT 66.5%, FG 47.2%, Opp. FG 41.6% –
All the computers love this team... probably because of the close losses early on. Led by the 'lil 5'8" Isaiah Thomas (16.6 ppg, 5.6 assits, 34% 3p%), who is still trying to clear his name from the evil Isiah Thomas. They also have Bryan-Amaning (6'9" senior, 16ppg, 8.3 rebs, 1.7 blocks, 56% FG%) and Justin Holiday (6'6" senior, 11.3 ppg, 5.2 rebs, 39% 3p%). They also have a 7'0" center, sophomore Aziz N'Diaye (4.8 ppg, 5.7 rebs, 1.3 blocks, 56%FG%). So... they are really just a large team with a little PG.

Belmont, Sag #33, kenpom offense #34, kenpom defense #20, 1st in conference at 19-1, 30-4
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: n/a
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Tennessee (twice!), Vanderbilt, Lipscomb
3P% - 38.1%, 3Pt defense - 32.8%, Reb. Margin = +3.5, FT 73.6%, FG 46.2%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
Classic small-conference team who hasn't played anyone. This is worse than Utah State, because they really haven't beaten anyone. Led by Ian Clark (12.4 ppg, 43.6 3p%), big-man Hedgepath (10.6 ppg, 6 rebs, 53% FG%), and big-man Saunders (10 ppg, 5.4 rebs, 51 FG%). They also have a 3-pt specialist in Jordan Campbell (8.4 ppg, 46% 3pt%). Interestingly, they have a 9-player rotation, where no one plays more than 25 mpg, and they are one of the best teams at creating turnovers, as well as being excellent 3-point shooters. The poor rebounding margin is not a good sign. In their 3 games against Tennessee and Vanderbilt, they were outrebounded 36-21, 39-25, but did outrebound Tenn 47-40 in the last game. So... bottom line, super 3-point team, super team at stealing, but no big men.

Geore Mason, Sag #26, kenpom offense #25, kenpom defense #39, 1st in conference at 16-2, 26-5
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Old Dominion (split), VCU (split), No. iowa?
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: NC St, Wofford, Dayton, Hofstra
3P% - 40.4%, 3Pt defense - 30.8%, Reb. Margin = +2.4, FT 69.6%, FG 47.5%, Opp. FG 40.5% –
This team has 3 3-point shooters, with a fourth coming off the bench. They are not good at rebounding though. They are led by Cam Long (6'4" senior, 15.1 ppg, 4.6 reb, 43.7% 3p%), Ryan Pearson (6'6" junior, 14.5 ppg, 6.8 rebs, 40.5% 3p%), Luke Hancock (6'5" sophomore 10.9 ppg, 4.4 assists), and Andre Cornelius (5'10" junior 10ppg, 39.7% 3p%). They are very efficient on offense, and play good team defense. The lack of a non-conference schedule makes them hard to predict.

Old Dominion, Sag #37, kenpom offense #78, kenpom defense #42, 2nd in conference at 14-4, 25-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Clemson, Xavier, Richmond, Dayton, G. Mason (split), VCU (split), Cleve St
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Georgetown, Delaware!, Missouri, Drexel
3P% - 32.6%, 3Pt defense - 36.9%, Reb. Margin = +11.4, FT 66.7%, FG 43.4%, Opp. FG 40.3% –
This team is the opposit of most any mid-major... they are one of the best rebounding teams in the country... and they suck at shooting 3s! They are led by F. Hassell (6'8" senior, 14.5 ppg, 9.8 rebs, 55%FG%), Kent Bazemore (6'5" junior 12.5 ppg, 5.1 rebs, 40.5% 3pt%, 2.3 steals). This team's performance will depend on the matchup, because they can get torched by good guard play (i.e. Georgetown, the running-style of Missouri). Interstingly, they knocked out Notre Dame last year in the 1st round... so be mindful of this team. It's also almost all seniors and juniors this year.

Xavier, Sag #31, kenpom offense #32, kenpom defense #54, 1st in conference at 15-1, 24-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Butler, Temple, Richmond, Georgia, Duquesne
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Old Dominion, Gonzaga, Florida, Cincy, MiamiOH!, Charlotte!
3P% - 33.3%, 3Pt defense - 33.2%, Reb. Margin = +4.8, FT 75.0%, FG 46.3%, Opp. FG 39.9% –
They are led by super junior, Tu Holloway (6'0", 20.1 ppg, 5.5 assists, 5.2 rebs, 34.6% 3p% , 43%FG%), Lyons (6'1" sophomore, 13.8 ppg, 41% FG%), big man Kenny Frease (7'0" junior, 11.9 ppg, 7.2 rebs, 54.7% FG%), and a 2nd big-man in Jamel McLean (6'8" senior, 10.8 ppg, 8.5 rebs, 54.6 FG%). Intestingly, against Gonzaga, Florida, and Cincy they were outrebounded 35-21, 38-30, and 34-24. Of course, Old Dominion also outrebounded them 33-23, but ODU, as said above, is awesome at rebounding. The more I see these numbers, this Xavier team may be the one that can't continue the streak of continuous sweet 16s (Xavier has made the sweet 16 3 straight years going into this one).

Temple, Sag #30, kenpom offense #53, kenpom defense #40, 2nd in conference at 14-2, 24-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Georgia, Maryland, Georgetwon, Richmond
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Cal, Texas A&M, Nova, Duquesne, Xavier, Duke
3P% - 35.1%, 3Pt defense - 34.5%, Reb. Margin = +3.4, FT 69.0%, FG 44.8%, Opp. FG 40.8% –
They are led by Razor Ramone Moore (6'4" junior, 14.8 ppg, 4.3 rebs, 39.8% 3p%, 43% FG%), Lavoy Allen (6'9" senior, 11.8 ppg, 8.2 reb, 48% FG%), and Scootie Randall (6'6" junior, 11.6 ppg, 5.1 rebs, 37% 3p%, 49% FG%). I'm not sure what to make of this team. They are not bad at anything, not terribly great at anything. They do play great defense though, and I love the great non-conference wins on their resume.