NL Central Preview

Ah, my home division. Gotta love the Central - Mikey was right in his earlier posting, it will be another of the competitive groupings in 2005. There's really only one dreadful team here, and the other five all have enough talent to make things interesting. Here we go, again in reverse predicted order of finish:

6. Pittsburgh - their most feared hitter was the vastly overrated Jason Kendall, and now he's gone, too. Quick: name two Pirates regulars not named Jason Bay. I can't do it either without ESPN's help. Bay's a budding superstar and a lot of fun to watch. So is Oliver Perez, the starter obtained in the Brian Giles trade who started to break out in 2004 and should be one of the NL's best in 2005. But that's it. Literally. The rest of this team is absolute garbage. I don't care what Craig and Jack Wilson did last season; they're not enough to fill in the other gaps. Benito Santiago is their opening day catcher. Benito Santiago! He passed away fifteen years ago! Jose Mesa is closing - Jose Mesa! Don't get me wrong, Pittsburgh won't lose 100 games; they're not Kansas City. But they just can't compete this season.

5. Milwaukee - I hate to pick the Brewers to finish 5th, because I like what they're doing up in Dairyland. The Carlos Lee deal was simply brilliant - he is a bonafide slugger, underappreciated in Chicago and sure to smack a lot of balls out of Miller Park. Milwaukee's problem is what's around him. Geoff Jenkins is good, but he's not that good; same goes for an improving Wes Helms and last year's breakout star, Lyle Overbay. There's not a whole lot else up there, at least not yet. As for pitching, we start with Olympic hero Ben Sheets, who finally showed signs of being the stud that everyone's been waiting for. Doug Davis was a nice surprise in 2004, and many think that wasn't an aberration. The rotation's decent - not great, but decent, and they should keep the team in a lot of games. The bullpen's another story. Danny Kolb went to Atlanta, and so the Brew Crew turns to Mike Adams to close. Luis Vizcaino left for the White Sox in the Lee/Podsednik trade, so there goes the team's best set-up man. In the end, questions in the bullpen (Ricky Bottalico surfaces here this year) and the lineup will keep Milwaukee from seriously contending. But keep an eye on some of the young arms here and on the farm system; I've read somewhere that the team has a great collection of prospects at AA and AAA, and we should see some of them coming up and making this team truly legitimate in the next few years.

4. Cincinnati - is there another team in baseball whose fortunes are as dependent on the injury-prone? If everyone's healthy, the outfield of Ken Griffey Jr., Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn and Wily Mo Pena could easily be the best (at the plate) in baseball. But these guys get injured brushing their teeth. If - and it's a big if - these guys (or whoever survives a possible trade; Kearns and Pena are subject of many rumors) can play most of the season, then you throw in Sean Casey and Joe Randa at the corners, and perennially underrated Jason LaRue, and you've got enough firepower in the lineup to outscore anyone. The rotation is anchored by new arrival Eric Milton, who's never impressed me as much as he seems to impress the nationally-syndicated pundits, but I suppose there's a chance someone knows more than me. Paul Wilson and Ramon Ortiz won't do that much, but keep an eye on Luke Hudson. Danny Graves closing, but the rest of the bullpen could be a big problem - Ben Weber? David Weathers? Kent Mercker? Cincy needs to spend a little cash and buy a few pitchers and another infield bat, I think. Not this year, and not in this division in the next few years, as the Big Three keep spending and as Milwaukee improves.

3. Houston - Mikey's right: no team has a slimmer margin of error, given both their losses and the competition in the division. In his time in Houston, Jeff Kent never came close to his MVP numbers with San Francisco, but he was still a force and a presence in the middle of that lineup. Beltran isn't worth $17 million, but he, too, is a big thumper that the 'Stros will miss. Berkman's gone until May 15 at the earliest. Unsung Wade Miller's off to Boston. Son what's left? Bagwell and Biggio, of course, in part because they remain solid and in part because they're contractually forbidden from retiring. Jason Lane gets a shot at starting every day, and he might be a nice addition. Morgan Ensberg showed signs of life in 2004, a year later than expected, and maybe he can put it together for a whole season this year. But without adding another bat, the lineup isn't good enough until Berkman returns, and maybe not even after he gets back. But if the Astros make it to October, it'll be with thanks to the pitching staff. Oswalt and Clemens return at the top, with Pettitte threatening to be the best #3 starter this side of Carlos Zambrano. Brad Lidge is just ridiculous. Not fair to be as lights-out as he is. I don't know enough about the rest of the 'pen, so I'll ask for a little help in that department. In the end, there's a lot of skill here, but everything needs to click for Houston to make an October run. This team may miss

2. Chicago - dammit, it's hard not to pick my Cubbies to take the Central. But they didn't do enough this off-season, unless you buy into the theory promoted locally that the Cubs added by subtracting the negative clubhouse influences of Kent Mercker, Moises Alou, and, of course, Sammy Sosa. Maybe. This team has enough talent to make the World Series, but it's going to take a coordinated awesome effort from Nomar, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and most importantly, Corey Patterson. The ability is there - but we also lost, what, 70+ homers? Burnitz can make back some of those, but at a much lower batting average. Of course, everyone likes to say that the Cubs don't need a lot of scoring, with the rotation of Prior, Wood, Zambrano, and Maddux. Even with the loss of Matt Clement to the BoSox, this is the best rotation, 1 through 5, in baseball, by far. But then there's the reliever situation. Can Ryan Dempster handle closing? Many think he can, but jury's out. I'd like to see them give the ball back to Joe Borowski when he's healthy, but I don't think Dusty's a big fan. LaTroy Hawkins can't close, but he and Mike Remlinger should do wonders in the 7th and 8th innings. If there's clubhouse harmony, if Corey Patterson steps it up and Burnitz doesn't stink too badly, if the Cubs find a halfway decent closer - this team should beat everybody in the NL. Will all of that happen? Oh, how I'd love to say yes.

1. St. Louis - these assholes had to go out and get Mark Mulder. Bastards! The Cards kicked everyone's tail (except Boston's, off course) with Matt Morris having a down year. Woody Williams is gone to San Diego, but Mulder takes his place, so to speak, and if Morris returns to form - these two plus Chris Carpenter should scare many teams. Isringhausen is consistently one of the most unfairly shat-upon closers in the game; I don't get it, the guy performs at a high level and yet nobody gives him credit. Oh, and then there's the lineup. Some guy named Pujols is the focus, surrounded by Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen, and don't forget Larry "I'm Still Here" Walker. I don't think the Cards will miss Renteria too much - his glove was better than his bat, and his .330 average in 2003 will never be seen again. The biggest loss might be Mike Matheny, who handled both the pitchers and the bat with comfort and reliability. He's underrated and will boost San Fran a lot - and, in turn, his absence from the Redbirds could drag St. Louis down into second. But if the Cubs don't get their ducks in a row...I hate to say it, but it'll be St. Louis back in the playoffs and the Cubs fighting for a wild card spot.