PAC-10 - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis

Barring any absurd NBA news, I’m planning on writing on college b’ball from here on out until the end of the tournament. I found it helpful for myself (and I hope it was helpful for others) when I analyzed the MVC last year , so I’m going to briefly provide some info on some of the more intriguing multi-bid conferences this year. Here's my proposed upcoming schedule, and if other people have things to contribute, etc. feel free to write before or after me to fill in the holes.

2/14 – PAC-10
2/21 – ACC
2/28- MVC (before their conference tourney begins)
3/7 - SEC

First off though, Let’s kick off with an interesting fact that I found…men’s college b-ball teams are actually shooting better from the FT line than in the past....
“Guess what? Like a lot of things that are supposedly lost arts, the idea that free-throw shooting used to be a lot better is a myth. Last season Division I teams shot 69.1 percent from the line. In the previous 25 seasons that number was higher only once (in 2002-03, when teams shot 69.4 percent). The high-water mark for free-throw shooting was 1978-79 (69.7 percent), but in the "good old days" teams shot far worse from the line than they do today. From the season the NCAA started keeping track in 1947-48 (a miserable 59.8 percent) to 1974-75 (69.0 percent), free-throw shooting was better than it was last season only once (69.2 percent in 1965-66). Contrary to what you might think, the men also shot free throws better than Division I women's teams did last season (68.55 percent).” http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/grant_wahl/11/29/cbk.bag/1.html NOTE: Not sure where to find the stats for this season, but I still thought it was interesting that the men have better fundamentals than the women, in at least one category.

Now, on to the PAC-10 Analysis:

UCLA, Sagarin Rating#4, 1st in conference at 10-2,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Wash St, Arizona, Oregon;
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Oregon, Stanford, W. Virginia (all on the road
3P% - 37.2%, Reb. Margin = +4.1, FT 65.2%, FG 48.8%, Opp. FG 42.3% --
Lots has been written on UCLA, and they certainly will be one of the favorites to win it all, considering that their top 7 can matchup with just about anyone in the country.

Wash State, Sag #16, 2nd in conference at 10-3,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Gonzaga, USC, Arizona (twice),
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Utah, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon (all on the road
3P% - 37.5%, Reb. Margin = -2.7, FT 70.3%, FG 46.7%, Opp. FG 39.5% –
This team has come out of nowhere to be in the top 10. The strong negative rebounding margin is alarming, but I guess not as alarming when you realize that they hold their opponents to sub-40% shooting. Their top player appears to be a 6’1” Guard, Derrick Low, who will continue throwing up shots. He has scored as few as 2, and as many as 37 this year, and only averages 14 ppg.

USC, Sag #34, 3rd in conference at 8-4,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wichita St., Oregon (twice), Arizona
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: S. Carolina, Kansas St., Stanford (among others)
3P% - 40.1%, Reb. Margin = +0.6, FT 71.0%, FG 48.4%, Opp. FG 36.9% –
Not sure what to make of this young team. They weren’t supposed to be good until next year, when OJ Mayo arrives, but Tim Floyd (yes, the one who stunk in the NBA) is still a good college coach. Their defense is very stellar, judging from the numbers. Plus, their top 2 scorers, Young and Stewart, shoot 48.3 and 44.4% respectively from 3-point land. This will certainly be a dangerous team in the tourney (if you’re like me, and believe in 3-point shooting and defense).

Oregon, Sag #18, 4th in conference at 8-5,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Georgetown, Nebraska, UCLA, Arizona, Wash St.
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: USC (twice), Washington, UCLA, Arizona
3P% - 37.4%, Reb. Margin = +3.6, FT 75.3%, FG 44.3%, Opp. FG 44.2% –
I was getting really excited about these guys when they first took down UCLA. But suddenly, they’ve lost 4 of 6. Plus, these guys aren’t playing great defense at this point, where the opponents are shooting just as good as they are! Also of note, the loss to Washington was when their best player, PG Aaron Brooks, was out due to suspension. I really like the intriguing storyline though of a man out to bring goodwill to the name of “Aaron Brooks.”

Arizona, Sag #10, 5th in conference at 8-5,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Illinois, Memphis, UNLV
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Virginia, UNC, USC
3P% - 34.7%, Reb. Margin = +6.6, FT 74.7%, FG 48.7%, Opp. FG 44.0% –
Played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to this point. Great rebounding team, but for some reason, they haven’t been able to consistently put up points. The good news is their losing streak (5 of 7) is behind them. The bad news is they still have to play USC, UCLA, and Stanford.

Stanford, Sag #49, 6th in conference at 7-5,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Texas Tech, Fresno St., UCLA
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Air Force, Santa Clara, Cal, Gonzaga
3P% - 34.5%, Reb. Margin = +6.2 , FT 66.9%, FG 44.6%, Opp. FG 40.6% –
Their coach is the former coach of Nevada, who recruited Fazekas… took Nevada to the Sweet 16 back in 2004, allowing him to get hired at Stanford. Still not sure what to make of these guys. They have a lot of nights when they struggle to get to 50 points. Their top player is a 6’8” sophomore forward, Lawrence Hill, who likes to also shoot 3s, but still shoots over 50% from the field.

Washington, Sag #57, 7th in conference at 4-8,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: N. Iowa, LSU
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Gonzaga, Cal,
3P% - 35.7%, Reb. Margin = +8.5, FT 71.6%, FG 47.3%, Opp. FG 45.2% –
I don’t believe in these guys at all, I’m really a U-W hater. I’ve never liked Washington, or trusted them, even when they had Brandon Roy and Nate Robinson. There’s certainly no reason to trust them this season, when they don’t have any studs. They do have a 6’11” freshman center though in Spencer “For Hire” Hawes, and a 6’7” rebounding machine, Jon Brockman. It’s a real big team, but they don’t appear to play good defense, at least not yet. I still don’t trust them.

Upcoming games to watch:
Thur 2/15 – USC at Arizona – 8:30PM
Sat. 2/17 – UCLA at Arizona – 11AM
Thur 2/22 – Wash St. at Oregon
Sat. 3/3 – USC at Wash. St.