MVC - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis

What better way to get pumped about March Madness than to cover a conference who’s tournament play begins in less than 24 hours from the time I type this???

It appeared heading into conference play this year that the MVC had put together an even more impressive resume than last year, and last year the MVC got 4 teams in the dance, and it very well could have been 5 had Missouri State not been snubbed. The difference between last year and this year? --Last year, the bottom half of the MVC failed to win games against the top half, resulting in 6 teams with superb resumes. This year? The MVC is competitive throughout! It just illustrates something I had never thought of before, but which Mighty Mike prophetically warned me about before conference season started – it pays to have a bunch of bottomfeeders to beat up on!

The other problem is that two of the teams (N. Iowa and Wichita St.) have just gone to shit in the last two months and seem to show no signs of recovering. So really, this appears to be a 4-team race, with probably 3 bids going out. This is not as exciting as I had hoped when I planned this column last month! Plus, only Southern Illinois and Bradley delivered on Bracketbuster, while Creighton, Missouri St., Wichita St., and N. Iowa all went belly up.

Southern Illinois, Sag #15, 1st in conference at 15-3,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Virginia Tech, Butler, Minnesota,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Arkansas, Indiana, Evansville
3P% - 36.7%, Reb. Margin = +1.9 , FT 69.4%, FG 45.5%, Opp. FG 41.6% –
Everyone knows about these guys, who’ve been ranked for the whole 2nd half of the season. They are led by senior guard Jamaal Tatum, who is only 6’2”, and averages 14.5 ppg. In each of the So. Illinois games I watched, he seems to defer to others but made all the big shots down the stretch against both Butler and Creighton. So. Illinois also has this guy Falker (6’7”) who has a sweet ‘do and likes to mix it up down low and gets a scrappy 13.1 ppg and 7 rpg (but a 61.1% FG%). Also of note, Southern Illinois likes to milk every shot clock, limiting the number of possessions for both teams (this info may be helpful for later on in the tourney).

Creighton, Sag #37, 2nd in conference at 13-5,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Xavier, Houston?, Missouri St. (twice)
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Nebraska, Dayton, Fresno St., Hawaii, Drexel
3P% - 34.6%, Reb. Margin = +1.9 , FT 75.4%, FG 44.8%, Opp. FG 42.2% –The name of their best player is sweet: Nate Funk. What’s not sweet is their resume, or their 3-point percentage. They did sweep Missouri State somehow though.

Missouri State, Sag #24, 3rd in conference at 12-6,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Wisconsin, Santa Clara,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Oklahoma St., St. Louis, Winthrop, Missouri St. (twice)
3P% - 40.0%, Reb. Margin = +4.1 , FT 69.1%, FG 47.9%, Opp. FG 42.1% –
Their best player, Blake Ahearn, I profiled last year. I finally saw him in action when they played Oklahoma St. earlier this season, and it turns out that he really is just a spot-up shooter, and cannot create his own shot (though he shoots an absurd 47.5% from 3-point land!). However, Missouri State does have a second option in Tyler Chaney who shoots 42% from 3-point land. This team appears to be more promising than Creighton, plus they have the revenge factor going, since they were the biggest snub of the 2006 Tourney. NOTE: Both Creighton and Missouri State are slated to make the tourney at this point, but both can use some wins in the conference tourney.

Bradley, Sag #52, 4th in conference at 10-8,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Iowa St, Rutgers, Va. Commonwealth
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Illinois, Mich. St., Tenn. Tech
3P% - 42.6%, Reb. Margin = -6.9 , FT 67.1%, FG 46.7%, Opp. FG 46.8% –
What an odd team. A year removed from losing their prized center (O’Bryant) to the lottery, Bradley has a disgusting -6.9 rebounding margin. They don’t appear to play much defense, but they enjoy shooting 3s, as their top 3 scorers are 6’0”, 6’5”, and 5’10” and shoot 43.4, 50.3, and 40.1% from 3-point land. I don’t think I’d trust these guys, but they aren’t dancing without a run to the finals (at least).

N. Iowa, Sag #74, 5th in conference at 9-9,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: S. Illinois., Iowa St., Iowa, WI-Milwaukee
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Washington, Nevada, Loyola (IL)
3P% - 36.4%, Reb. Margin = +2.9 , FT 70.3%, FG 45.3%, Opp. FG 41.5% –
They have two big guys (Coleman and Stout) who both pull down 9 rebounds per game. They don’t really shoot the 3, but they appear to play better defense than most. What’s most concerning is that they finished the season 3-8 (after starting 13-2).

Wichita State, Sag #68, 6th in conference at 8-10,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: LSU, Syracuse, Creighton
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Appalachian St., USC, New Mexico
3P% - 36.0%, Reb. Margin = +2.4 , FT 71.1%, FG 46.0%, Opp. FG 43.4% –This is a very young team (top 2 players are seniors, but 5 freshmen and 3 sophomores. After starting out 9-0 and having the whole nation behind them after victories over LSU and Syracuse, it seemed like the sky was the limit. I was confused, because I remembered reading in a preview that they lost key players from last year’s sweet 16 team. Then, it turned out that LSU and Syracuse weren’t that good at all and the shit hit the fan and the team went into a losing tailspin they never recovered from. Their best player is a 6’8” forward, Kyle Wilson, who averages 14ppg, and 5 rpg, and shoots 38% from beyond the arc.

Games to watch (their tournament begins this weekend!)-
Friday – 2:35PM – 4-Bradley vs. 5- N. Iowa
Friday – 8:35PM – 3-Missouri St. vs. 6-Wichita St. (Missouri St. better win to avoid getting snubbed two years in a row)
Saturday – semis – 1:30PM and 4:30PM
Sunday – finals – 1PM