Big 10: Early 2009 thoughts

In probably one of the last thoughts for awhile on college football so I figured I'd breakdown next years Big 10. Or at least as well as one can before recruiting and spring practice come to pass. While everyone I think here knows my feelings on the structural hindrances the Big 10 faces (as one can see by the breakdown by state in 2008 for recruiting) but that doesn't necessarily affect year to year differences. That said at first glance next year looks for the Big 10 to regain quality in the middle ranks but hardily any team looking to win at the elite (read BCS) level. I'm sorry to say another cold Fall and Bowl season of Big 10 bashing could be in store.

The Elite
Over the past4 years the Big 10 has frankly been dominated by Ohio State and Penn State. No other team has won a share of the Big 10 Championship since 2004. Hence elite category

Penn State:
Good Points: Of the top teams in the Big 10 only Penn State returns its entire backfield. Evan Royster will be one of the top backs and Darryl Evans will probably be the top QB (again)

Bad Points: Penn State is losing its 4 of 5 OL, top 3 receivers, top 3 DEs and their entire secondary

Outlook: Worse

Ohio State
Good Points: Another year under the belt of Terrel Pryor. IF he can take a step forward the offense will be better. The DL loses only one and might be the best its been since 2002.

Bad Points: Losing arguably the top corner, running back and linebacker in this years draft is hard to immediately overcome.

Outlook: Uncertain (guess status quo). Part of the problem for tOSU this year was a horrific offensive line. There will be 3 new starters. How well the new tackles play will influence Pryor's development as well as how much Beanie Wells is missed.


The Second Tier

Iowa
For those that don't remember/were unaware before the recent Penn State/Ohio State run Iowa won portions of 2 of 3 Big 10 titles between 2002-2004. They were the only Big 10 team to win a bowl game and the only Big 10 team to beat Penn State. The biggest (and really only) loss this year for Iowa will be star running back Shonne Green (the Big 10s most productive back this year). If Iowa can find something to replace his production there's no reason to think Iowa won't challenge for a Big 10 title

Outlook: Status Quo/Better

Michigan State
Michigan State took Wisconsin's role this year as that team that can beat everyone in the Big 10 but the top teams. Unfortunately it loses its entire backfield most notably Javon Ringer (who they don't really have a backup for). On the plus side a defense, that was demolished in big games, gets everyone back. Wait is that good?

Outlook: Worse unless an uberfreshman can replace Ringer

Northwestern
Northwestern finished tied for 3rd in the Big 10 this year at 9-4 and nearly beat Missouri (before choking). That said they lose their QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs and 3 DL. Yes depth might be problem for the men of Purple next year.

Outlook: Worse

Minnesota
Minnesota (7-6) improved dramatically from its horrendous 2007 campaign. However the team petered out towards the end as it lost its last 5. That said all the key cogs on offense return and the defense can only get better. In theory. It will will have a young secondary which could be trouble.

Outlook: Better

The Disappointments

Wisconsin
While debatable I don't think any team was as disappointing as Wisconsin this past year. A giant losing streak, a coach underfire, and a blowout loss to Florida State all for a team that many predicted would win the Big 10. I don't think anyone is certain what entirely went wrong as so many aspects from coaching, to defense to QBing was crap. Wisconsin will break in a new QB (although its very unclear who that'll be at this point)

Outlook: Better but not much (for how many teams does uncertainty at QB end up turning out well the next year?)

Illinois
Similiar to Wisconsin its uncertain exactly why Illinois was so bad. Although as opposed to Wisconsin its not a lack of explanations as much as too many: inability to replace Mendenhall, too many turnovers, horrific secondary, bad coaching, etc. Illinois has the talent to be better in theory but that requires Juice Williams to finally turn that corner

Outlook: Better but not by much

Michigan
I'll try to put my biases aside for a second here. While Michigan was expected to suffer a little bit during its transition its hard to argue it should have resulted in the worse year in Michigan football history. In particular the defense simply sucked as exemplified by the "firing" of RichRod's handpicked defensive coordinator. Michigan should be better as more players for the particular system are brought in but by how much? Tate Forcier will be an improvement at QB, but a freshman QB won't mean elite status. Neither will replacing 3 of 4 quality defensivelinemen

Outlook: Better but notby much

The Rest
Purdue
Gets a new QB and a new coach next year. Any bets on how well that'll work?

Indiana
Without a bowl bid, Indiana will be looking for a new coach.


Anyway that's my very early (and as always pessimistic) outlook