Big-12 and Potluck - Facts, Stats, and Attempted Analysis

It’s that time of the year when I shift full-throttle into NCAA coverage… I’m doing some different conference previews again, but this week I’m going to cover some of the Big-12 and also some random other teams. Also, if anyone is curious, this is the schedule of conferences I’m shooting for from here on out:
Week of 2/18- ACC
Week of 2/25 – Atlantic 10 (currently projected as having 4 tourney bids)
Week of 3/3 – MVC / Big-East
Week of 3/10 – PAC-10

After looking through the analysis I did last year, for the PAC-10, the ACC, the MVC, and the SEC, it appeared more important in hindsight that rebounding margin was more of a driving factor for success (especially for the MVC, where the sweet 16 teams the last 2 years had healthier rebounding margins). I still don’t know if there is any one driving factor for the bigger conference teams, because in the end, it’s only one sloppy game that can get you eliminated. So, for this year, I’m going to pay more attention for the mid-majors to their rebounding margins, as it seems like it’s more of a perquisite to hanging with the big boys.

Kansas, Sag #3, 1st in conference at 8-1,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Arizona, USC,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Kansas State (their only loss)
3P% - 38.2%, Reb. Margin = +7.2 , FT 69%, FG 51.3%, Opp. FG 38.4% –
Obviously, Kansas is very talented and the question with them is just how far they can go in the Tournament. A more important question may be whether their coach can actually get them to the Final 4. This team has a very balanced scoring attack with 4 players averaging between 12 and 13 ppg.

Kansas State, Sag #24, 2nd in conference at 7-1,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: California, Kansas
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: George Mason, Xavier, Missouri
3P% - 33.5%, Reb. Margin = +9.4, FT 66.6%, FG 44.6%, Opp. FG 40.1% –
The focus on this team is their super-freshman, Michael Beasley. He’s 6-9, and is averaging a ridiculous 25ppg and 12 rebounds per game. They didn’t play great during the non-conference schedule, but they at least did pick up that win against Kansas which shows that they have potential.

Texas, Sag #13, 3rd in conference at 6-2,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Tennessee, UCLA, St. Mary’s,
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Mich. St., Wisconsin, Missouri
3P% - 39.0%, Reb. Margin = +3.3, FT 68.6%, FG 46%, Opp. FG 39.9% –
They have two really good smaller guards – in DJ Augustin and AJ Abrams. No Kevin Durant this year, though the team has been playing more consistently than they ever did last year. They actually are a little bit smaller on the inside but they have 3 solid victories over top teams in their non-conference slate.

Texas A&M, Sag #19, 4th in conference at 6-3,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Washington, Ohio St.
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Arizona, Texas Tech
3P% - 37.4%, Reb. Margin = +9.4, FT 62.8%, FG 48.8%, Opp. FG 37.9% –
Another team with a very balanced scoring attack… their top 6 players all average between 8 and 13ppg. They are very good at rebounding for some reason, but their top rebounder, freshman center DeAndre Jordan, only shoots 42% from the free throw line… but 65% from the field. He’s 7 feet tall, so I’m guessing most of his shots are putbacks and dunks.

Baylor, Sag #31, 5th in conference at 5-3,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Notre Dame, Texas A&M
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Arkansas, Wash St.
3P% - 38.6%, Reb. Margin = +1.2, FT 74.1%, FG 45.9%, Opp. FG 41.4% –
I’m happy for Baylor that they have become good so quickly after they had some real problems a few years ago… they beat Texas A&M in an insane 5-OT game not long ago.

Oklahoma, Sag #41, 6th in conference at 3-5,
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Arkansas, Gonzaga, W. Virginia
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Memphis, USC, Stephen F. Austin (ouch!)
3P% - 34.7%, Reb. Margin = +3.5, FT 67.4%, FG 45.8%, Opp. FG 40.1% –
Their 2nd-leading scorer, Longar Longar, just went down with an injury and will be out for a while meaning that these guys may not make the tournament. Their top scorer is a freshman, Blake Griffin, who averages 15 PPG, and 8.5 rpg.

Potluck time!… each of the following teams come from conferences which are not worth the time to review in their entirety… so I’m just throwing them in here with the Big 12.

Memphis, Sag #2, 1st in conference at 9-0, (undefeated – 23-0)
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Oklahoma, Uconn, USC, Georgetown, Arizona, Gonzaga
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: No losses so far
3P% - 34.2%, Reb. Margin = +8.5 , FT 58.4%, FG 46.4%, Opp. FG 37.0% –
They are playing Tennessee on 2/23, so they do have one tough game left, in a rare late-season non-conference game… they have super-frosh Derrick Rose (14ppg), last year’s super-frosh Chris Douglas-Roberts (16.7ppg, 53.8% FG%). They have two 6-9 forwards (Dozier, Dorsey) who average 7 and 11 rebounds respectively. If they actually do finish the season undefeated, it will be very tough to figure out what kind of team can beat them in the tournament. Their closest loss so far was a 4-point loss to USC, in an ugly slugfest where Memphis shot 37% from the field, but USC shot only 29% ! If anything, I would assume that their 58% FT shooting percentage could be their undoing in a close game in the tourney.

Butler, Sag #25, 1st in conference at 10-2, 21-2
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Ohio St., Florida St., Va. Tech
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Wright St., Cleve St. (that’s it, both in-conference)
3P% - 37.8%, Reb. Margin = -0.6, FT 76%, FG 44.9%, Opp. FG 44.8% –
Butler made the sweet 16 last year, and they have the same group of guys this year including AJ Graves (13.9ppg, 34.7% 3P%) and Pete Campbell (11.4ppg, 45.3% 3P%). Just like last year, this team has a glaring weakness in that they are not good at rebounding. That was a main reason I doubted them last year, but they proved me wrong in getting to the Sweet 16. This year, they could be getting a very favorable seed in the tourney. They still are playing Drake (only have 1 loss) in the upcoming Bracket Buster, which should be a key test before the tournament.

St. Mary’s, Sag #22, 1st in conference at 7-1, 20-3
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Drake, Oregon, Gonzaga
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: So. Illinois, Texas, San Diego
3P% - 35.8%, Reb. Margin = +4.4 , FT 65.9%, FG 47.2%, Opp. FG 41.0% –
This team has been solid all season and it will be really interesting to see what kind of seed they get. They have two great wins over Drake (their only loss) and over Oregon. Their top scorer is a PG, Patrick Mills, but he tends to turn the ball over a lot (3.8 assist, 3 TO per game). They do have two big men, one who is a 7-footer (Omar Samhan) and a 6-7 forward who average 7.8 and 9.2 rebounds per game.

Gonzaga, Sag #28, 1st in conference at 7-1, 18-6
Non-conference wins & key conference wins: Va. Tech, Uconn, St. Joe’s
Non-conference losses & key conference losses: Texas Tech, Wash St., Oklahoma,
3P% - 37.4%, Reb. Margin = +5.5 , FT 71.2%, FG 48.2%, Opp. FG 39.2% –
6-11 Josh Heytvelt is still getting back into form after returning mid-way through the season, so Gonzaga still may play even better as the season progresses. 6-5 Matt Bouldin, a guard, has been their leading scorer but is extremely inconsistent, including 0 points against Wash St, and only scoring 6 points against Memphis. I’ve always really liked Jeremy Pargo, who’s older brother made the NBA. He’s averaging 11.8 ppg, but 6.4 assists per game. The only concern is that Pargo, who shot 37% from 3-point land last year, is only shooting 26% this year.