Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Questions about Turkuglu

How good was Turkuglu for the Magic last year and how much should he have been worth. The Orlando Magic by signing Gortat, Bass and bringing in Vince Carter have publicly noted that they didn't think Turkuglu was worth the 10 million a year. The question as to how good he is/was, is one for the rest of the league. The Magic now return basically their team with an upgrade at point guard (Nelson returning over Alston) and backup PF (Bass over Battie). The question for the Magic is one of Turkuglu versus Carter. Does the drop off which I think conventional wisdom exist? What do the numbers say?

Player A averaged 16.8 points on 41% FG (including 34% from 3) 4.7 rebounds and 4.9 assists
Player B averaged 20.8 points on 44% FG (including 37% from 3) 5.1 rebounds and and 4.7 assists

Ok Player B seems better but maybe A is more efficient. Nope. Hollinger's PER and True shooting (combination of FG and free throw) both favor Player B. Suffice to say Player B is obviously Vince Carter. Now the question on Carter is always of ball hogging which is true... usage rate for Carter was 26.8% while Turkuglu's was 22% (and that was one of lower levels in Carter's career). However what the stats do show is that Turkuglu even in the playoffs, was not key to Orlando's success (in the playoff's Turkuglu's win share was 4th behind Petraeus). In essence if Carter only slightly cuts back on his usage Orlando is better off. Now it is possible that Orlando will have a problem as Nelson takes more shots than Alston (so your asking Carter to definitely cut back his shooting and pass more come playoff time) but at the same time given how much better Nelson is at passing than what Alston provided there's the come back that Carter does not need to produce the assists that Turkuglu provided.

What this long winded discussion is that the stats support Orlando in that Turkuglu was over-hyped by his playoff performance and probably not worth the money. Secondly, after thinking about it, Orlando has the capacity to be much improved given Carter's effeciency advantages over Turkuglu assuming Carter can only slightly cut back on shots. In essence Orlando should be the favorite to win the East

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